07 Managerial Decision Making

Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial
Managerial Decision Making

Decision
It
making is not easy
must be done amid

ever-changing factors
unclear information
conflicting points of view
Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

2
Managerial
Decision Making
Decision
Characteristics
Decision-making
Models
Steps
Executives Take Making Important

Decisions
Participative
Decision Making
Techniques
for Improving Decision Making in

Todays Organizations

3
Decisions and Decision Making

Decision = choice made from
available alternatives
Decision Making = process of identifying
problems and opportunities and resolving
them

4
Categories of Decisions
Programmed
Decisions
Situations occurred often enough to enable

decision rules to be developed and applied in
the future
Made in response to recurring organizational
problems
Nonprogrammed Decisions in response
to unique, poorly defined and largely
unstructured, and have important consequences
to the organization
Ethical Dilemma: The No-Show Consultant

5
Certainty, Risk, Uncertainty, Ambiguity
Certainty
Risk
decision has clear-cut goals

good information is available
future outcomes associated with each alternative are subject to
change
Uncertainty
all the information the decision maker needs is fully available
managers know which goals they wish to achieve

information about alternatives and future events is incomplete
managers may have to come up with creative approaches to
alternatives
Ambiguity
by far the most difficult decision situation

goals to be achieved or the problem to be solved is unclear
alternatives are difficult to define
information about outcomes is unavailable

6
Conditions that Affect the Possibility of

Decision Failure
Organizational
Problem
Low
Possibility of Failure
Certainty
Risk
Uncertainty
Programmed
Decisions
Ambiguity
Nonprogrammed
Decisions
Problem
Solution

7
High
Selecting a Decision Making Model

Depends
on the managers personal

preference whether the decision is
programmed or non-programmed
Extent to which the decision is
characterized by risk, uncertainty, or
ambiguity

8
Three Decision-Making Models

Classical Model
Administrative Model
Political Model

9
Classical Model
Logical decision in the organizations best economic interests
Assumptions
Decision maker operates to accomplish goals that

are known and agreed upon
Decision maker strives for condition of certainty
gathers complete information
Criteria for evaluating alternatives are known
Decision maker is rational and uses logic
Normative = describes how a manager should and

provides guidelines for reaching an ideal decision
10
Administrative
Model
Herbert A. Simon
How nonprogrammed decisions are made--uncertainty/ambiguity
Two concepts are instrumental in shaping the

administrative model
Bounded rationality: people have limits or

boundaries on how rational they can be
Satisficing: means that decision makers choose

the first solution alternative that satisfies minimal
decision criteria

11
How nonprogrammed decisions are made--uncertainty/ambiguity
Managers actually make decisions in difficult situations

characterized by non-programmed decisions, uncertainty, and
ambiguity
Decision goals often are vague, conflicting and lack consensus

among managers;
Rational procedures are not always used
Managers searches for alternatives are limited
Managers settle for a satisficing rather than a maximizing solution
intuition, looks to past experience
Descriptive = how managers actually make decisions--not how

they should

12
Political Model
Closely resembles the real environment
Closely resembles the real environment in which

most managers and decision makers operate
Useful in making non-programmed decisions
Decisions are complex
Disagreement and conflict over problems and

solutions are normal
Coalition = informal alliance among

manages who support a specific goal

13
Characteristics of Classical, Political, and

Administrative Decision Making Models
Classical Model
Political Model
Clear-cut problem and goals
Vague problem and goals
Pluralistic; conflicting goals
Condition of certainty
Condition of uncertainty
Condition of uncertainty/ambiguity
Full information about
Limited information about
Inconsistent viewpoints; ambiguous
alternatives and their outcomes
alternatives and their outcomes
information
Rational choice by individual

for maximizing outcomes
Satisficing choice for resolving

problem using intuition
coalition members

14
Bargaining and discussion among
Six Steps in the Managerial

Decision-Making Process
Evaluation
and
Feedback
Implementation
of Chosen
Alternative
Recognition of
Decision
Requirement
DecisionMaking
Process
Selection of
Desired
Alternative
Diagnosis
and Analysis
of Causes
Development of
Alternatives

15
Diagnosis and Analysis of Causes

Diagnosis = analyze underlying causal
factors associated with the decision situation

Managers
make a mistake if they jump into

generating alternatives without first exploring
the cause of the problem more deeply

16
Underlying Causes - Kepner /Tregoe
What is the state of disequilibrium affecting us?
When did it occur?
Where did it occur?
How did it occur?
To whom did it occur?
What is the urgency of the problem?
What is the interconnectedness of events?
What result came from which activity?

17
Selection of Desired Alternatives

Risk
Propensity = willingness to undertake

risk with the opportunity of gaining an
increased payoff
Implementation
= using managerial,
administrative, and persuasive abilities to
translate the chosen alternative into action

18
Decision Styles
Differences
among people with respect to how

they perceive problems and make decisions
Not
all managers make decisions the same
way
Directive style
Analytical style
Conceptual style
Behavioral style

19
Personal Decision Framework
Situation:
Programmed/nonprogrammed
Classical, administrative,
political
Decision steps
Personal Decision
Style:
Directive
Analytical
Conceptual
Behavioral

20
Decision Choice:
Best Solution to
Problem
Directive Style
People
who prefer simple, clear-cut solutions

to problems
Make decisions quickly
May consider only one or two alternatives
Efficient and rational
Prefer rules or procedures

21
Analytical Style
Complex
solutions based on as much data

as they can gather
Carefully consider alternatives
Base decision on objective, rational data
from management control systems and other
sources
Search for best possible decision based on
information available
22
Conceptual Style
Consider a broad amount of information
More socially oriented than analytical style
Like to talk to others about the problem and possible

solutions
Consider many broad alternatives
Relay on information from people and systems
Solve problems creatively

23
Behavioral Style
Have a deep concern for others as individuals
Like to talk to people one-on-one
Understand their feelings about the problem and the

effect of a given decision upon them
Concerned with the personal development of others
May make decisions to help others achieve their

goals

24
Latihan
1.
Dalam melakukan pekerjaan atau tugastugas kelas, saya mencari :

a. Hasil-hasil praktis
b. Solusi terbaik
c. Pendekatan atau ide-ide kreatif
d. Kondisi kerja yang baik

25
Latihan (2)
2. Saya menikmati pekerjaan :
a. Teknis dan terdefinisi dengan baik
b. Memiliki variasi yang beragam
c. Membiarkan diri saya untuk mandiri dan
kreatif
d. Melibatkan bekerja secara lebih dekat
dengan orang-orang lain
26
Latihan (3)
3. Jenis manusia yang paling saya sukai untuk
bekerja dengan saya adalah :
a. Orang yang memiliki energi dan ambisius
b. Memiliki kapabilitas dan teratur
c. Terbuka terhadap ide-ide baru
d. Mudah setuju dan penuh kepercayaan

27
Latihan (4)
4. Ketika saya memiliki masalah, biasanya
saya :
a. Bersandar pada apa yang telah terjadi di
masa lalu
b. Menerapkan analisis secara hati-hati
c. Mempertimbangkan pendekatan kreatif
yang bervariasi
d. Mencari kesepakatan dengan orang lain
28
Latihan (5)
5. Saya memiliki keistimewaan dalam hal :
a. Mengingat tanggal dan fakta-fakta
b. Memecahkan masalah yang kompleks
c. Mencari sebanyak mungkin solusi
d. Bergaul dengan orang lain

29
Latihan (6)
6. Ketika saya tidak memiliki banyak waktu,
saya :
a. Membuat keputusan dan bertindak cepat
b. Mengikuti rencana-rencana atau prioritas
utama yang telah ditentukan
c. Perlu waktu dan menolak penekanan
d. Bertanya pada orang lain untuk
mendapatkan petunjuk maupun dukungan
30
Latihan (7)
7. Dalam situasi sosial, pada umumnya saya :
a. Berbicara pada orang lain
b. Berpikir tentang apa yang sebaiknya
dibicarakan
c. Melakukan pengamatan
d. Mendengarkan percakapan

31
Latihan (8)
8. Orang lain menganggap saya :
a. Agresif
b. Disiplin
c. Kreatif
d. Suportif

32
Latihan (9)
9. Yang paling tidak saya sukai adalah :
a. Saat keluar kendali
b. Mengerjakan pekerjaan yang
membosankan
c. Mengikuti aturan-aturan
d. Ditolak oleh orang lain

33
Latihan (10)
10. Keputusan yang saya buat biasanya :
a. Langsung dan praktis
b. Sistematis atau abstrak
c. Luas dan fleksibel
d. Sensitif terhadap keperluan orang lain

34
Latihan (11)
Jawaban
a
b
c
d
direktif
analitis
konseptual
perilaku

35
Participation in
Decision Making
Vroom-Jago
Model
Helps
gauge the appropriate amount of

participation for subordinates in process
Leader Participation Styles
Five levels of subordinate participation in decision

making ranging from highly autocratic to highly
democratic

36
Participation in
Decision Making
Diagnostic Questions
Decision participation depends on the
responses to seven diagnostic questions
about
the problem
the required level of decision quality
the importance of having subordinates commit to
the decision

37
Vroom-Jago
Model
Seven Leader Diagnostic Questions
How significant is the decision?

How important is subordinate commitment?
What is the level of the leaders expertise?
If the leader were to make the decision alone at what level
would subordinates be committed to the decision?
What level is the subordinates support for the team or
organizations objectives?
What is the members level of knowledge or expertise
relative to the problem?
How skilled or committed are group members to working
together?
38

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Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial

Managerial Decision Making

making is not easy

must be done amid

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Executives Take Making Important

for Improving Decision Making in

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Decisions and Decision Making

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Situations occurred often enough to enable

Ethical Dilemma: The No-Show Consultant

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Certainty, Risk, Uncertainty, Ambiguity

decision has clear-cut goals

all the information the decision maker needs is fully available

managers know which goals they wish to achieve

by far the most difficult decision situation

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Conditions that Affect the Possibility of

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Selecting a Decision Making Model

on the managers personal

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Three Decision-Making Models

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Decision maker operates to accomplish goals that

Normative = describes how a manager should and

How nonprogrammed decisions are made--uncertainty/ambiguity

Two concepts are instrumental in shaping the

Bounded rationality: people have limits or

Satisficing: means that decision makers choose

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Managers actually make decisions in difficult situations

Decision goals often are vague, conflicting and lack consensus

Descriptive = how managers actually make decisions--not how

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Closely resembles the real environment in which

Useful in making non-programmed decisions

Decisions are complex

Disagreement and conflict over problems and

Coalition = informal alliance among

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of Classical, Political, and

Clear-cut problem and goals

Vague problem and goals

Pluralistic; conflicting goals

Full information about

Limited information about

Inconsistent viewpoints; ambiguous

alternatives and their outcomes

alternatives and their outcomes

Rational choice by individual

Satisficing choice for resolving

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Bargaining and discussion among

Six Steps in the Managerial

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Diagnosis and Analysis of Causes

factors associated with the decision situation

make a mistake if they jump into

Copyright 2005 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.

Underlying Causes - Kepner /Tregoe

What is the state of disequilibrium affecting us?