MEDIA RELEASE 
(February 3, 2010)

FROM: Dr. Ana Maria L. Tabunda

Chief Research Fellow
Pulse Asia, Inc.

RE: Pulse Asia’s January 2010

Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions

In keeping with our academic nature, Pulse Asia disseminates to the public some
findings from the January 2010 Pre-Election national survey.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010 using face-to-
face interviews. In the period prior to and during the conduct of the survey, the following
were some of the key political developments and issues that dominated the news
headlines: (1) the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that hit Haiti on 12 January 2010 and the
international effort to help the country; (2) the impending retirement of Supreme Court
Chief Justice Reynato Puno and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff
Victor Ibrado and the issue of whether President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo should
appoint their replacements or leave the task to the next president; (3) the report of the
Senate Committee of the Whole seeking the censure of Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. over
the C-5 road extension project and the alleged attempt by the latter’s Senate allies to
unseat Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile who chairs the said committee; (4) the
Commission on Election (COMELEC) decision clearing the way for the candidacies of
President Arroyo and former President Joseph Estrada in the May 2010 elections; (5) the
reinstatement of a few presidential and senatorial candidates and the inclusion of several
party-list groups in the final list of candidates bringing the total number of candidates to
ten for the presidency, eight for the vice-presidency, 62 for the Senate, and 150 for the
party-list; (6) questions regarding the certainty of the automation of the May 2010 polls
amidst delays in the delivery of counting machines and the training of teachers for the
Automated Election System (AES); and (7) the continuing investigation into the
Maguindanao massacre that took place in November 2009. Also gaining media attention
during this period was the arrest of Jason Ivler on 18 January 2010, the suspect in the
shooting of Renato Victor Ebarle, Jr. over a vehicular altercation that took place in
November last year.

Meanwhile, in the economic front, this period saw the price of refined sugar go up
to P60/kilo in selected Metro Manila retail outlets despite its suggested retail price of
P52/kilo. On the other hand, the prices of diesel and kerosene products declined slightly
due to a drop in international oil prices. It was also at this time that the Economic
Freedom Index was released, showing the Philippines in 105th place (out of 179
countries) and under the category of “mostly unfree economies”.

For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a ballot that
conforms to the latest COMELEC sample that was available prior to the conduct of this
survey. In pioneering the use of a replica of the prospective ballot, Pulse Asia aims to
provide substantive feedback on the length of time that it may take to complete the
new ballot and also surface some of the concerns associated with filling it out.
Measuring 8” x 29”, the ballot lists the names of the candidates for the national posts
alphabetically, consistent with the official list released by the COMELEC. Respondents
were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the written instructions
therein.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years

old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a ± 2% error margin at the 95%
confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey
have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: ± 6% for Metro Manila, ±4%
for the rest of Luzon and ±5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field
interviews for this project were conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010. (Those
interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and
sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of
the pre-tested questions actually used.)

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and
conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In
keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group
influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own
without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse
Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief
Research Fellow at 09189436816.

2
 Pulse Asia’s January 2010 Pre-Election Survey
Voter Preferences for National Positions
February 3, 2010

Senator Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino III and Senator Manuel “Manny” B. Villar,
Jr. have virtually the same voter preferences as they lead other presidential
candidates in Pulse Asia's latest survey.

With about four months to go before the May 10, 2010 elections, presidential
candidates Senator Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino (Liberal Party) and Senator Manuel
“Manny” B. Villar (Nacionalista Party) are tied for the presidency, with Senator Aquino
registering 37% of voter preferences and Senator Villar 35%. The only other presidential
candidate with a double-digit preference is former President Joseph Estrada (Pwersa ng
Masang Pilipino) at 12%. The other candidates register voter preferences of at most 5%.
Less than one in ten Filipinos (6%) does not have a preferred presidential candidate at
this time. (See Table 1, Distribution of presidential preferences by Region.)

Across areas, Senator Aquino takes the lead in the National Capital Region, with
38% support against Senator Villar’s 24%. The two front-runners register virtually the
same preference in Balance Luzon (Aquino, 37%; Villar, 36%); Visayas (Aquino, 41%;
Villar, 38%); and, Mindanao (Villar, 36%; Aquino, 33%). (See Table 1, Distribution of
presidential preferences by Region.)
Table 1
FIRST CHOICE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE BY REGION
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(Column Percent)

Base: Registered Voters, 100%

LOCATION
If the coming 2010 elections were held MINDANAO
BALANCE LUZON VISAYAS
today, whom would you vote for as RP NCR Reg 9, 12 Reg 10,
PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINES? Total North South Total West Central East Total ARMM CARAGA Reg 11

AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. "Noynoy" 37 38 37 37 37 41 39 46 35 33 35 32 29

VILLAR, Manuel Jr. B. "Manny" 35 24 36 38 34 38 41 35 36 36 35 42 29
ESTRADA EJERCITO, Joseph M. "Erap" 12 14 9 8 10 6 6 3 13 22 23 15 32
TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. "Gibo" 5 8 4 5 2 7 7 7 9 4 4 4 4
VILLANUEVA, Eduardo C. "Bro. Eddie" 2 3 2 1 3 3 1 5 4 1 1 2 1

GORDON, Richard J. "Dick" 1 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2

MADRIGAL, Jamby AS. "Jamby" 0.5 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0
DE LOS REYES, John Carlos G. "JC" 0.3 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
ACOSTA, Vetallano S. "Dodong" 0.2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
PERLAS, Jesus Nicanor P. "Nick" 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

None / Refused / Undecided 6 7 10 9 12 3 5 3 1 2 2 2 3

Q1. Kung ang darating na eleksyon sa Mayo 2010 ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang inyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS?
(SHOW SAMPLE BALLOT AND LIST OF CANDIDATES). Ito po ay sample ballot lamang na ginagamit sa survey na ito. Paki basa po
ang instruksyon sa sample ballot bago kayo bumoto. Pagkatapos po ninyong bumoto, pakibalik po sa akin ang inyong sample ballot.

Across socio-demographic groups and taking the error margins for the subgroups
into account, Senator Aquino leads among Class D (40%) and among the elderly aged 65
years and over (42%). On the other hand, Senator Villar enjoys the lead in the 25-34 age
group (42%). Voter preferences for the two leading candidates are essentially the same

3
 across the other socioeconomic classes and age groups. (See Table 2, Distribution of
presidential vote preference by socio-economic groups.)

Table 2
FIRST CHOICE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE BY CLASS AND AGE GROUP
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(Column Percent)

Base: Registered Voters, 100%

If the coming 2010 elections were held CLASS AGE GROUP

today, whom would you vote for as
PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINES? RP ABC D E 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 & up

AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. "Noynoy" 37 37 40 31 46 32 32 40 38 42

VILLAR, Manuel Jr. B. "Manny" 35 22 34 39 37 42 36 31 28 23
ESTRADA EJERCITO, Joseph M. "Erap" 12 9 10 17 7 14 10 13 15 16
TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. "Gibo" 5 12 6 2 5 4 6 7 4 3
VILLANUEVA, Eduardo C. "Bro. Eddie" 2 4 2 3 1 2 3 1 3 4

GORDON, Richard J. "Dick" 1 5 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1

MADRIGAL, Jamby AS. "Jamby" 0.5 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
DE LOS REYES, John Carlos G. "JC" 0.3 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
ACOSTA, Vetallano S. "Dodong" 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PERLAS, Jesus Nicanor P. "Nick" 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

None / Refused / Undecided 6 10 7 5 2 4 9 7 9 10

Q1. Kung ang darating na eleksyon sa Mayo 2010 ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang inyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS?
(SHOW SAMPLE BALLOT AND LIST OF CANDIDATES). Ito po ay sample ballot lamang na ginagamit sa survey na ito. Paki basa po
ang instruksyon sa sample ballot bago kayo bumoto. Pagkatapos po ninyong bumoto, pakibalik po sa akin ang inyong sample ballot.

Compared to the December 2009 survey, support for Senator Villar improves by
12 percentage points, while preference for Senator Aquino and former President Estrada
decline by 8 and 7 percentage points, respectively. Voter preferences for the other
presidential candidates, on the other hand, do not register marked changes between the
two survey periods. (See Table 3—Comparative Presidential Preference, October 2009-
January 2010.)
Table 3
2010 ELECTIONS:
COMPARATIVE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE
October 2009 and January 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)

First Choice Change*

Oct09 Dec09 Jan10 Jan10 -
Presidential Preference (14 names) (15 names) (10 names) Dec09

AQUINO, Benigno "Noynoy" III 44 45 37 - 8

VILLAR, MANUEL “Manny” Jr. 19 23 35 +12
ESTRADA, Joseph “Erap” 11 19 12 - 7
TEODORO, Gilbert C. 2 5 5 0
VILLANUEVA, Bro. Eddie 1 1 2 + 1

GORDON, Richard "Dick" 0.3 1 1 0

MADRIGAL, Jamby "Jamby" 0.1 0.4 0.5 +0.1
DE LOS REYES, John Carlos "JC" 0.1 0.1 0.3 +0.2
ACOSTA, Vetallano "Dodong" -- -- 0.2 --
PERLAS, Jesus Nicanor "Nick" -- 0.03 0.05 +0.02

None / Refused / Undecided 4 4 6 + 2

Note: *Change = Figures of January 2010 minus Figures of December 2009.

4
 Voters are as likely to say, based on a predetermined set of reasons to choose
from, that they opted for a candidate because he/she is not corrupt or has a clean record
(24%) as, he/she cares for the poor (24%). Other reasons cited for preferring a candidate
pertain to the ability to do something (16%), helping others (11%), being a good person
(9%) and experience in governance (6%) (See Table 4—Reasons for voting for
presidential preference.)

Table 4
REASON FOR CHOOSING PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)

Base: Those with 1st choice for President, 94%

LOCATION CLASS
Why will you vote for (Answer in Q1) BAL
as President of the Philippines? RP NCR LUZ VIS MIN ABC D E

Not corrupt/clean record 24 26 23 27 24 34 27 18

Cares for the poor 24 18 26 18 30 15 22 32
Can do something, is doing something, 16 22 17 13 13 12 17 14
will do something

Helps, helping others 11 5 9 19 11 7 10 13

Good person 9 7 9 10 10 9 9 10
Used to governing, has experience 6 11 7 4 6 6 8 4
Listens to people 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4
Knowledgeable/intelligent 4 6 4 4 2 8 4 3
Others 1 1 1 2 1 4 1 1

Q2. Bakit po ninyo iboboto si (Answer in Q1) bilang Presidente ng Pilipinas?

Senator Roxas leads the vice-presidential race

Nearly half of the voters (47%) would vote for Senator Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas
(Liberal Party) if the May 2010 elections were held at the time of the survey, giving him
a sizeable lead over Senator Loren Legarda (Nacionalista Party, at 28%) in second place
and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (PDP Laban, at 13%) in third place. The other vice-
presidential candidates garner at most 2% voter preference. Meanwhile, about one in ten
voters (7%) did not have a favored vice-presidential candidate at the time of the survey.
(See Table 5—Vice Presidential Voter Preference.)

Across geographical areas, Senator Roxas leads the race in Luzon, including
NCR, and the Visayas. However, voter preferences for the two leading contenders,
Senators Roxas and Legarda, are essentially tied across the Mindanao areas surveyed. As
for the socio-demographic groupings, Senator Roxas enjoys sizeable leads among the
upper socio-economic classes ABC (54%) and D (49%) and across the various age
groups. Preferences for Senators Roxas and Legarda are essentially tied among Class E
voters, however. (See Table 6—Vice Presidential Voter Preference.)

5
 Table 5
FIRST CHOICE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE BY REGION
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)

Base: Total Registered Voters, 100%

LOCATION
If the coming 2010 elections were held MINDANAO
BALANCE LUZON VISAYAS
today, whom would you vote for as RP NCR Reg 9, 12 Reg 10,
VICE-PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINES? Total North South Total West Central East Total ARMM CARAGA Reg 11

ROXAS, Manuel “Mar” A. 47 42 44 46 41 56 68 50 47 46 46 45 46

LEGARDA, Loren B. 28 19 26 25 27 26 22 28 30 39 38 42 35
BINAY, Jejomar “Jojo” C. 13 25 14 14 15 7 3 9 12 8 8 7 9
FERNANDO, Bayani “BF” F. 2 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 1 4
MANZANO, Eduardo “Edu” B. 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 7 3 2 2 0 2
YASAY, Perfecto “Kidlat” R. 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 0 1
SONZA, Jose “Jay Sonza” Y. 0.2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
CHIPECO, Dominador Jr. “Jun” F. 0.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

None / Refused / Undecided 7 5 11 10 12 3 3 4 2 2 1 4 3

Q1. Kung ang darating na eleksyon sa Mayo 2010 ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang inyong iboboto bilang BISE-PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS?
(SHOW SAMPLE BALLOT AND LIST OF CANDIDATES). Ito po ay sample ballot lamang na ginagamit sa survey na ito. Paki basa po
ang instruksyon sa sample ballot bago kayo bumoto. Pagkatapos po ninyong bumoto, pakibalik po sa akin ang inyong sample ballot.

Table 6
FIRST CHOICE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE BY CLASS AND AGE GROUP
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)

Base: Total Registered Voters, 100%

If the coming 2010 elections were held CLASS AGE GROUP

today, whom would you vote for as
VICE-PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINES? RP ABC D E 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 & up

ROXAS, Manuel “Mar” A. 47 54 49 41 50 45 46 41 52 52

LEGARDA, Loren B. 28 10 26 36 29 34 25 30 21 23
BINAY, Jejomar “Jojo” C. 13 17 13 11 11 12 15 13 11 10
FERNANDO, Bayani “BF” F. 2 4 3 2 1 2 2 3 4 1
MANZANO, Eduardo “Edu” B. 2 3 2 3 5 1 2 2 2 3
YASAY, Perfecto “Kidlat” R. 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 0 0
SONZA, Jose “Jay Sonza” Y. 0.2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
CHIPECO, Dominador Jr. “Jun” F. 0.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

None / Refused / Undecided 7 9 7 6 2 4 8 9 9 10

Q1. Kung ang darating na eleksyon sa Mayo 2010 ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang inyong iboboto bilang BISE-PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS?
(SHOW SAMPLE BALLOT AND LIST OF CANDIDATES). Ito po ay sample ballot lamang na ginagamit sa survey na ito. Paki basa po
ang instruksyon sa sample ballot bago kayo bumoto. Pagkatapos po ninyong bumoto, pakibalik po sa akin ang inyong sample ballot.

6
 Among the vice-presidential candidates, only Senator Roxas and Senator Legarda
register significant movements in voter preference between Pulse’s December 2009 and
January 2010 surveys – an increase of 8 percentage points in the case of Senator Roxas
and a decline 9 percentage points in the case of Senator Legarda. (See Table 7—
Comparative Vice Presidential Preference)

Table 7
2010 ELECTIONS:
COMPARATIVE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE
October 2009 and January 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)

First Choice Change*

Oct09 Dec09 Jan10 Jan10 -
Presidential Preference (10 names) (15 names) (8 names) Dec09

ROXAS, Manuel "Mar" 37 39 47 + 8

LEGARDA, Loren 23 37 28 - 9
BINAY, Jejomar “Jojo” 13 14 13 - 1
FERNANDO, Bayani “BF” 1 2 2 0
MANZANO, Eduardo “Edu” B. --- 2 2 0
YASAY, Perfecto “Kidlat” R. --- 0.3 1 + 0.7
SONZA, Jose “Jay Sonza” Y. --- 0.03 0.2 + 0.17
CHIPECO, Dominador Jr. “Jun” F. --- 0.2 0.07 - 0.13

Others 2 1 0 - 1
None / Refused / Undecided 4 4 7 + 3

Note: *Change = Figures of January 2010 minus Figures of December 2009.