Collateral Damage

Collateral Damage Model

Purpose
Account for the additional operating risk associated with a given
pipeline resulting from proximity to adjacent lines

Assumptions

Risk associated with failure of the primary line is carried by

owner/operator of the primary line
Risk associated with un-precipitated failure of the adjacent line
(i.e., not your fault) is carried by owner/operator of adjacent line

Approach

C-FER

Consider potential for the escalation of failure consequences

brought about by proximity of the primary line to an adjacent line

Technologies

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Modeling Approach
Consider two lines
1

R1

R2

If you own or operate both

1
2

R = R1 + R2

If you own or operate line 1 only

1
2

C-FER

Technologies

R = R1
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Modeling Approach
Consider two lines
1

R1

R2

Native pipelines

- we care about probability

and consequences of failure

Foreign pipelines

If you own or operate both

1
2

- we care about consequences

of failure only

Native
Native

R = R1 + R2

If you own or operate line 1 only

1
2

C-FER

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Native
Foreign

R = R1
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Collateral Damage Model

New risk component measures
R1 = P1 (C1 + P2|1C*2)

1
2

P2|1= Pinv2|fail1 x Pign1|fail1 x Pfail2|inv2+ign1

where
Pinv2|fail1

= probability of involving line 2 if line 1 fails

(available from probabilistic crater size model)

Pign1|fail1

= probability of immediate ignition of line 1 if line 1 fails

(available from failure model event tree)

Pfail2|inv2+ignl1

= probability of failing line 2 if it is involved and line 1 ignites

(beyond state-of-the-art user-defined with default set to 1.0)

C2*

C-FER

Technologies

= consequences of failing line 2 assuming line 1 fails and ignites

(available from existing consequence model with immediate
ignition probability set to 1.0)
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Probability of Involving Adjacent Line

Pinv2|fail1 = P(separation distance < crater half-width)

Separation distance
Crater half-width
at depth d2
d2

For gas pipelines

- crater size based on Gasunie/Battelle model

- function of: d1, D1, soil type

For liquid pipelines (LVP/HVP)

- crater radius is user-defined multiple of D1

- no default values

d1
D2

D1
Line spacing

C-FER

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Gas Pipeline Craters Can be Large

NPS 30 pipeline rupture near Carlsbad, New Mexico

C-FER

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Gas Pipeline Crater Width Model

Width depends on line diameter, depth of burial, and soil type
Does not depend
on line pressure

Soil Type
Hard clay5

NPS 30

Very stiff clay4

0.9 m cover
Stiff clay | Dense sand3

1.8 m cover

Med/soft clay | Medium sand2

NPS 12
Loose sand1

C-FER

Technologies

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Crater Half-Width (m)

14.0

16.0
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Gas Pipeline Crater Width Uncertainty

Based on analysis of reported gas pipeline incident data

mean = 1.02
cov = 0.41

C-FER

Technologies Actual width / Predicted width

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Probability of Involvement Gas Line

Rupture

hcrt = Ch h21

Large leak

*
hcrt
= Ch h21

Ch

= crater width uncertainty

= leak angle factor

hsep = S21 D2/2

h21

d2

d1
D2

C-FER

Technologies

D1

S21

Pinv|rpt

hcrt hsep

=
h

crt

Pinv|llk

h* hsep

= 0.5 crt
*

h
crt

50/50 chance leak

directed towards line
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Probability of Involvement Liquid Line

Rupture

r = B D1

B = crater radius multiplier for rupture

Large leak

r * = A D1

A = crater radius multiplier for large leak

hsep = S21 D2/2

r

d2

Technologies

if hsep r 0.0

Pinv|llk = 1.0

if hsep r * 0.0

d1
D2

C-FER

Pinv|rpt = 1.0

D1

S21

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Consequences of Adjacent Line Failure

All n adjacent lines

Fail by rupture
Immediate ignition probability is 1.0

All hazard area independent consequences add

directly to consequences of primary line

C-FER

Line repair cost

n
Service interruption cost
1
j |1
Cost of lost product
j =2
Spill clean-up cost
Spill volume | Residual volume | Equivalent volume

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C = C + P Crpt j

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Consequences of Adjacent Line Failure

All hazard area dependent consequences add

incrementally to consequences of primary line

Cost of property damage

Cost of fatality compensation
Number of fatalities | Interaction length
n

*
*
C = C1 + Pj|1 Crpt

C
1
j
j =2

C-FER

Technologies

Consequences of ignited
rupture of adjacent line j

Consequences of ignited
failure of primary line
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Hazard Area Overlap

Area affected if
primary line fails
A1
Additional area
affected if
adjacent line fails

Model assumes that

you can only
fatally injure or
destroy property once

Model assumes that

product release rates
do not add

A2 A 1
C-FER

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Collateral Damage Model

Model limitations

Intended primarily for gas pipelines

Crater model applies to rupture failure

Approximation required for large leaks
Model does not depend on line pressure

For liquid pipelines

Crater dimensions will be much smaller

No recognized model currently exists for crater size
Options
ignore collateral damage potential for LVP and HVP lines
assume a nominal crater size to acknowledge potential impact
on lines that are extremely close together

C-FER

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PIRAMID Implementation
Model configuration

Turn collateral
damage off/on

C-FER

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PIRAMID Implementation
Model configuration gas pipelines options

C-FER

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PIRAMID Implementation
Model configuration liquid pipelines

User must specify values

C-FER

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PIRAMID Implementation
Native vs. foreign lines
owned by others
owned by you

foreign

native

native

C-FER

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PIRAMID Implementation
Native vs. foreign lines

C-FER

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PIRAMID Implementation
Relationships between pipelines

Line spacing
Stationing

Main line

(west mainline)

Adjacent line
(east mainline)

C-FER

Technologies

S2 = 3.1 m
40.0 km

262.5 km

70.0

292.5

S1 = 10.5 m

150.0

180.0

480.2

510.2

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PIRAMID Implementation
Relationships between pipelines

C-FER

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PIRAMID Implementation
Relationships between pipelines

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Collateral Damage Model

Required inputs

Native pipelines

Existing probability and consequence related line attributes

Soil type and Depth of Burial (if not required by other models)
Line spacing

Foreign pipelines (owned by others)

C-FER

Existing consequence related line attributes

Soil type and Depth of Burial
Line spacing

Technologies

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Demo 2 Part A
What effect does collateral damage potential have
on this two-pipeline system

100.0 km

NPS 12 Gas Pipeline

115.0 km

130.0 km

NPS 36 Gas Pipeline

150.0 km

165.0 km

Residential very low density (class 1)

C-FER

Technologies

S = 3.0 m

180.0 km

Residential medium density (class 3)

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Demo 2 Part B
What effect does collateral damage potential have on
NPS 12 Gas for this three-pipeline system
150.0 km

165.0 km

S = 3.0 m

180.0 km

NPS 36 Gas Pipeline (foreign)

100.0 km NPS 12 Gas Pipeline (native) 115.0 km

130.0 km

NPS 36 Gas Pipeline (native)

150.0 km

165.0 km

Residential very low density (class 1)

C-FER

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S = 3.0 m

180.0 km

Residential medium density (class 3)

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Demo 2

Metric (SI) example

Gas pipeline
X:\Program Files\C-FER\PIRAMID\2002 Training Seminar\Level 3\Demo 2

C-FER

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Demo 2 Part A
Section Risk Results (single adjacent line)
Line

Section

Comb Impact
($/km yr)

Prob Fail
(/km yr)

Exp Cost
($/km yr)

Exp Fatal
(/km yr)

Exp Volume
(cu m/km yr)

IRR

NPS 12
w/o

100.00000 | 115.00000
115.00000 | 130.00000

1.05E+02
1.75E+03

6.18E-04
7.16E-04

1.02E+02
6.85E+02

1.53E-06
5.31E-04

0.00E+00
0.00E+00

1.47E-01
2.05E+00

1a
1b

NPS 12
with

100.00000 | 115.00000
115.00000 | 130.00000

1.60E+02
7.16E+03

6.18E-04
7.16E-04

1.47E+02
2.55E+03

6.61E-06
2.30E-03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.99E-01
4.18E+00

3a
3b

NPS 12
change

100.00000 | 115.00000 Cl 1
115.00000 | 130.00000 Cl 3

1.52
4.09

1.00
1.00

1.44
3.72

4.32
4.33

NPS 36
w/o

150.00000 | 165.00000
165.00000 | 180.00000

1.69E+02
6.38E+03

2.24E-04
2.24E-04

1.53E+02
2.25E+03

8.25E-06
2.06E-03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.68E-01
2.68E+00

2a
2b

NPS 36
with

150.00000 | 165.00000
165.00000 | 180.00000

1.73E+02
6.39E+03

2.24E-04
2.24E-04

1.57E+02
2.26E+03

8.26E-06
2.06E-03

0.00E+00
0.00E+00

2.69E-01
2.69E+00

4a
4b

NPS 36
change

150.00000 | 165.00000 Cl 1
165.00000 | 180.00000 Cl 3

1.02
1.00

1.00
1.00

1.03
1.00

1.00
1.00

C-FER

Technologies

2.03
2.04

1.00
1.00

= 3a / 1a
= 3b / 1b

= 4a / 2a
= 4b / 2b

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Demo 2 Part A
System Risk Results (single adjacent line)

Line

Section

Comb Impact
($ / yr)

Prob Fail
( / yr)

Exp Cost
($ / yr)

Exp Fatal
( / yr)

Exp Volume
(cu m / yr)

IRR

Two-line system
NPS 12
(NPS
12 and NPS 36)
w/o
collateral
without
NPS 36
w/o
Total

2.78E+04

2.00E-02

1.18E+04

7.98E-03

0.00E+00

2.05E+00

9.82E+04

6.73E-03

3.61E+04

3.11E-02

0.00E+00

2.68E+00

1.26E+05

2.67E-02

4.79E+04

3.91E-02

Two-line system
NPS 12
(NPS
12 and NPS 36)
with
collateral
with
NPS 36
with
Total

1.10E+05

2.00E-02

4.05E+04

3.47E-02

0.00E+00

4.18E+00

9.84E+04

6.73E-03

3.62E+04

3.11E-02

0.00E+00

2.69E+00

2.08E+05

2.67E-02

7.67E+04

6.58E-02

=2+1

=4+3
2.04

Change

1.65

1.00

1.60

1.68

= (4+3)/(2+1)
1.00

C-FER

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Demo 2 Part B
Total Risk for NPS 12 Gas
Line

Section

NPS 12
Two-line system
w/o
(NPS 12 and NPS 36)
with collateral
NPS 12
with one
Change

Comb Impact
($ / yr)

Prob Fail
( / yr)

Exp Cost
($ / yr)

Exp Fatal
( / yr)

Exp Volume
(cu m / yr)

IRR

2.78E+04

2.00E-02

1.18E+04

7.98E-03

0.00E+00

2.05E+00

1.10E+05

2.00E-02

4.05E+04

3.47E-02

0.00E+00

4.18E+00

3.96

1.00

3.43

4.35

2.04

=3/1

2.00E-02

1.18E+04

7.98E-03

0.00E+00

2.05E+00

2.00E-02

6.92E+04

6.13E-02

0.00E+00

6.31E+00

1.00

5.86

7.68

3.08

=5/1

NPS 12
2.78E+04
Three-line system
w/o (NPS 12, NPS 36 and NPS 36-2)
with collateral
NPS 12
1.92E+05
with both
Change
6.91

C-FER

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