June 15, 2015

Indian Currency Market A Weekly Perspective

RETAIL RESEARCH

USD/INR

ST Trend of US$

64.013

Up

Target

Reversal

Prev. Close

Supports

Resistances

64.16

63.52

63.755

63.66-63.34

64.07-64.16

05/06

12/06

% chg

63.755
70.863
97.329
1.967
1.111
125.580

64.013
72.113
99.631
1.925
1.126
123.408

0.40
1.76
2.37
-2.14
1.35
-1.73

26768.49 26425.30
8114.70 7982.90

-1.28
-1.62

Currencies
Dollar (USD-INR)
Euro (EUR-INR)
Pound (GBP-INR)
Yen (INR JPY)
EUR-USD
USD JPY

Equities
Sensex
Nifty

Debt
3 mth T - Bill (%)
GS 8.4 2024

7.69
7.79

7.69
7.89

0.00
1.28

Source: Bloomberg & SEBI

The week gone by

The Indian Rupee lost last week. W-o-W, the USDINR pair gained 0.40%.

Foreign Markets
The euro rebounded against the dollar on Friday as Greece said it is getting closer to a deal on its debt, which could
stave off default for the cash-strapped country. On Friday, a Greek government official said the country is ready to
submit counter-proposals and is closer than ever to a deal with its creditors.
Earlier in the session, the euro had been under pressure after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said a strong
currency made it harder for the likes of Spain and Portugal to reap the benefits of economic reform. The euro had
fallen on Thursday on news the International Monetary Fund delegation had left negotiations between the EU and
Greece in Brussels.
The dollar reacted little to fresh data on U.S. inflation and consumer sentiment, even though both reports were seen
as positive for the greenback.

RETAIL RESEARCH

U.S. producer prices in May recorded their biggest increase in more than 2-1/2 years as the cost of gasoline and
food rose, suggesting a downward drift in prices driven by falling oil prices was nearing an end.
U.S. consumer sentiment rose more than expected, a survey showed. The University of Michigan's preliminary June
reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 94.6, up from the final May reading of 90.7.

Outlook
The data reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once this year, but the
market's focus has been more on Greece.
The Greece news gives hope that Greece can avert default and stay in the euro zone. The euro seems to be at its
best when there is good news on Greece.
Coming to the Indian Rupee, foreign flows will remain a key factor in the near-term for markets. Technically, the
USDINR pair remains in uptrend and could target the 64.16 levels in the coming week.

Upcoming Major Macro Events

Date

Country

Event

Bloomberg
Estimate

Previous Level

17-June-2015

USA

FOMC Meeting Announcement

18-June-2015

USA

Jobless Claims

275k

279k

18-June-2015

USA

Consumer Price Index (M/M change)

0.5%

0.1%

19-June-2015

India

CPI - Agricultural Labourers (YoY Chg)

19-June-2015

India

CPI - Rural Labourers (YoY Chg)

Top Traded USDINR Currency Options for the previous trading session (12-06-2015)
Option

No of Contracts traded

USDINR Put 64.0 Strike Price

93,194

USDINR Call 65.00 Strike Price

86,584

RETAIL RESEARCH

RBI Reference Rate:

Lst Close (12-06)

USD/INR

GBP/INR

EUR/INR

Yen/INR

64.030

99.272

71.899

51.850

0.22

0.38

-0.57

0.00

0.21

1.32

0.11

1.01

-0.27

-0.76

-0.02

-2.96

Daily % Chg
Weekly % Chg
Monthly % Chg

The EUR/INR pair (Daily chart) Technical View

The week gone by saw the EURINR pair bouncing back from a low of 70.65 after correcting towards the end of the previous
week.
Technical indicators are giving positive signals as the pair trades above the 13-day SMA. Momentum readings too are in rising
mode and are not yet overbought, which suggests further upside potential.
Further upsides for the EURINR pair are likely once the immediate resistances of 72.64 are taken out. Short term trend reversal
levels remain at 70.44.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Analyst: Subash Gangadharan (subash.gangadharan@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building B, Alpha, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opposite Crompton
Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400042, Fax: (022) 30753435
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information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We
may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment
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This report has been prepared by the Retail Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or
other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, PCG) of HDFC
Securities Ltd.

RETAIL RESEARCH