SPE 133432

Enhanced Estimation of Reservoir Parameters Using Decline

Curve Analysis
M. Ebrahimi, SPE, ACECR-Production Technology Research Institute
Copyright 2010, Society of Petroleum Engineers
This paper was prepared for presentation at the Trinidad and Tobago Energy Resources Conference held in Port of Spain, Trinidad, 2730 June 2010.
This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper have not been
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Abstract
Traditional decline curve analysis is an empirical procedure used mainly to predict recoverable reserves and future
production rates, based on the boundary dominated declining rate. Modern (typecurve) analysis, however, are partially
(Fetkovich) or fully derived analytically, based on reservoir fluid flow equations and assuming some simplifying conditions.
Such typecurves are generally used for predicting reserves and future production rates as well as reservoir parameters.
In the current study, two cases have been analyzed using traditional and modern decline curves in an attempt to estimate
key reservoir parameters. In the first case, an implicit reservoir simulator has been used for generating a set of declining rates
for a well operating at ideal conditions, i.e. a homogenous cylindrical reservoir with isotropic permeability producing single
phase oil at a constant bottomhole pressure. The generated data ware then used as an input for a decline curve analysis
software to investigate the reliability and accuracy of estimated permeability, skin, and drainage area. In the second case, the
declining rate of a real oil well is analyzed in terms of the previously cited parameters by the same software. The results of
both cases indicate a good agreement between the actual and estimated parameters, with the Blasingame typecurve as the most
accurate decline curve analysis technique.
Introduction
When sufficient production data are available and production is declining, a curve fit of the past production performance can
be done using certain standard curves. This curve fit is then extrapolated to predict future performance. This procedure is
called decline curve analysis in which all factors influencing the curves in the past are assumed effective (unchanged)
throughout the producing time (Satter and Thakur, 1994).
Traditional decline curve analysis is an empirical procedure used mainly to predict recoverable reserves and future
production rates, based on the boundary dominated declining rate. Due to its empirical nature, traditional analysis can be used
for almost any situation, on single fluid streams or multiple fluid streams, on reservoirs with pressures below or above bubble
point and on constant or variable flowing bottom hole pressures. Modern (typecurve) analysis, however, are partially
(Fetkovich) or fully derived analytically, based on reservoir fluid flow equations and assuming some simplifying conditions.
Such typecurves are generally used for predicting reserves and future production rates as well as reservoir parameters.
Although simplifying assumptions used in deriving such curves might imply their applicability to some certain conditions, but
still a very good estimation of reservoir parameters is possible even when the producing conditions are not ideal.
In this paper, after a brief review of the traditional and modern decline curve analyses, two cases will be analyzed in an
attempt to determine key reservoir parameters. In the first case, a synthetic model is used to obtain reservoir parameters when
producing conditions are ideal. The second case is a real well assumed to be pumped off at a constant bottomhole pressure.
Results of both cases show the feasibility of decline curve analysis for obtaining reservoir parameters. Furthermore, results of
the two cases reveal Blasingame typecurve as the most accurate technique compared with the other typecurves.
Theoretical Background
Traditional decline curve analysis (Arps, 1945; Arps, 1956)
Traditional decline curve analysis is not grounded in fundamental theory but is based on empirical observations of
production decline. Three types of decline curves have been identified, namely, exponential, hyperbolic and harmonic. When
analyzing rate decline, two sets of curves are normally used. The flow rate is plotted either against time or against cumulative
production. These curves provide a direct estimate of the ultimate recovery at a specified economic limit.

SPE 133432

Traditional decline curves represent production from the reservoir under boundary dominated flow conditions. This means
that during the early life of a well, while it is still in transient flow and the reservoir boundaries have not been reached, decline
curves should not be expected to be applicable.
All decline curve theory starts from the definition of the instantaneous or current decline rate, D, as follows:

q
q


q

t
D=
=
t

(1)

Exponential decline occurs when the decline rate, D, is constant. If D varies, the decline is considered to be either
hyperbolic or harmonic, in which case, an exponent b is incorporated into the equation of the decline curve, to account for
the changing decline rate.
Exponential decline is given by:
q
qi

1
Dt

(2)

Hyperbolic decline is described by:

q
qi

1
1
1 + bDi t b

(3)

Where Di is the decline rate at flow rate qi, and b is an exponent that varies from 0 to 1. When b equals 1, the curve is said
to be Harmonic. When 0 < b < 1, the curve is said to be Hyperbolic. When b=0, this form of the equation becomes
indeterminate, but it can be shown that it is equivalent to Exponential decline.
Arps type curves
If the hyperbolic decline equation is presented in graphical form it can be seen to encompass the whole range of conditions
from exponential decline (b=0) to harmonic decline (b=1) where each value of qi, Di, and b will produce its own unique curve.
Arps (1945 and 1956) generalized these curves by making the equation dimensionless; He defined a dimensionless rate as qDd
= q (t) / qi, and a dimensionless time as tDd = Dit. The resulting dimensionless equation used to generate a set of type curves is:
q Dd =

1
1

1 + bt Dd b

(4)

Through type curve matching the values of b, qi and Di are obtained. Other relevant equations for oil phase are presented in
the appendix.
Fetkovich type curves
Fetkovich (1980 and 1987) used analytical flow equations to generate type curves for transient flow, and he combined them
with the Arps empirical decline curve equations. Accordingly, the Fetkovich type curves are made up of two regions, the righthand side which is identical to the Arps type curves and the left-hand side derived from the analytical solution to the flow of a
well in the centre of a finite circular reservoir producing at a constant wellbore flowing pressure.
Matching of the late-time data gives an indication of the reserves, which in turn is a direct function of re. Armed with this
knowledge of re and the match of the transient data, the re/rw parameter can then be used to calculate the effective wellbore
radius, rwe, from which the skin factor, s, can be obtained using the equation rwe = rwe-s.
Blasingame type curves
The production decline analysis techniques of Arps and Fetkovich are limited in that they do not account for variations in
bottomhole flowing pressure in the transient regime, and only account for such variations empirically during boundary

SPE 133432

dominated flow (by means of the empirical depletion stems). In addition, changing PVT properties with reservoir pressure are
not considered, for gas wells.
Blasingame and Lee (1986) and Palacio and Blasingame (1993) have developed a production decline method that accounts
for these phenomena. The method uses a form of superposition time function (material-balance-time), that only requires one
depletion stem for typecurve matching, the harmonic stem. Conceptually, the material-balance-time is defined as the ratio of
cumulative production, Q, to instantaneous rate, q. In effect, Blasingames typecurves allow depletion at a constant pressure to
appear as if it were depletion at a constant flow rate.
In Blasingame typecurve analysis, three rate functions can be plotted against material balance time, namely: normalized
rate, rate integral, and rate integral derivative. The last two functions help in smoothing the often-noisy character of production
data, and in obtaining a more unique match.
q
p

q
pi p wf

q
=
p i

t q
dt

0 p
t

p i

q
=
=
d ln(tc )
p id

p i

Normalized rate

(5)

Rate Integral

(6)

Rate Integral Derivative

(7)

dt c

tc

Agarwal-Gardner type curves

Agarwal and Gardner (1998) have compiled and presented new decline typecurves based upon the work of both Fetkovich
and Palacio-Blasingame, utilizing the concepts of the equivalence between constant rate and constant pressure solutions.
Agarwal and Gardner present new typecurves with dimensionless variables based on the conventional well test definitions, as
opposed to the Fetkovich and Blasingame dimensionless variables. They also include primary and semi-log pressure derivative
plots (in inverse format for decline analysis). The horizontal axis is material balance time, and the vertical axis is Normalized
Rate (equation 5) and inverse semi-log derivative of pressure normalized rate as defined in equation 8.
1
DER

ln(tc )

(8)

NPI (Normalized Pressure Integral)

The Normalized Pressure Integral was initially developed by Blasingame (1989). The NPI provides an analysis method that
is similar to Blasingame, but that is based on pressure, rather than rate. The main purpose is to present an analysis that is very
similar to a well test analysis. Normalized pressure along with normalized pressure integral (equation 9) and pressure integral
derivative (equation 10) are used to interpret decline curves in NPI type curve.
Normalized pressure is the inverse of definition for normalized rate and is defined as P/q. In some cases, the data is
already very noisy and difficult to read because of many fluctuations. The normalized pressure integral can be used to smooth
the data so that trends in the data may be interpreted easier. In most cases, a Pressure Derivative was found to be too sensitive
to be useful. The Pressure Integral Derivative is less sensitive and so can be interpreted more handily, while still providing
detail about the character of the data.

PDI =

1
t DA

PD dt DA

(9)

SPE 133432

dPDI
PDID =
d ln(t DA )

(10)

Case studies
Synthetic model
An implicit reservoir simulator has been used to generate a set of production data for an ideal case. This case is called ideal
because all the assumptions used for generating Fetkovich and other type curves have been honored. In other words, a well is
draining a circular area with a constant bottomhole pressure set to a value just above bubble point pressure so that only a single
phase (oil) is produced. Table 1 shows the reservoir, well bore and fluid properties used to build the simulation model and
Figure 1 shows the production behavior of the model.
Table 1: Properties of the model used for generating an ideal rate response
Porosity
Permeability (Kr, K, Kz) (md)
re, rw (ft), reservoir area (acre)
NR, N, NZ
Depth to tops of formation (ft)
DZ, D (ft, degree)
Datum depth
Datum pressure (psia)
Oil, Water and gas densities (lb/cu ft)
-1
Rock compressibility @ 4550 psia (psi )
-1
Water compressibility (psi )
Skin
Bubble point pressure (psia)

30%
10
2050, 0.25, 295.74
10, 1, 1
5500
500, 360
5750
4550
53.97, 64.79, 0.06692
0.31E-05
3.13E-6 (assumed constant)
0
2944

Figure 1: Production behavior of the synthetic model

In the first step, a traditional analysis is performed as illustrated in figure 2. An area of 326.47 acres is calculated with a b
value of 0.018 which indicates an almost exponential decline. In the next step, other type curves matching including
Fetkovich, Blasingame, Agarwal-Gardner and Normalized Pressure Integral (NPI) are performed as shown in figures 3 to 6.
The results of the above mentioned analyses are compared in table 2.

Figure 2: traditional declining rate versus time analysis for the synthetic model

SPE 133432

Figure 3: Fetkovich type curve analysis- synthetic model

Figure 4: Blasingame type curve analysis- synthetic model

Figure 5: Agarwal Gardner rate versus Time type curve analysis- synthetic model

Figure 6: NPI type curve analysis- synthetic model

Table 2: the comparison of different analysis results

Traditional
K
S
A
N/A
N/A
326.5

Fetkovich
K
S
A
10.76
0.29
335.7

Blasingame
K
S
A
10.76
0.37
292.4

Agarwal&Gardner
K
S
A
10.75
0.22
291.9

K
10.45

NPI
S
0.38

A
294.8

SPE 133432

As illustrated in figures 3 to 6, the generated data set matches properly with different typecurves. Considering the actual
permeability, skin, and drainage area shown in table 1, Blasingame results show better agreement with the actual values but on
the whole, one can easily find out the applicability of decline curve analysis for predicting key reservoir parameters, especially
when the results of more than one typecurve is available.
Real oil well
The second case is an oil well assumed to be pumped off in a constant bottomhole pressure of 600 psig. Table 3 shows the
required properties for decline curve analysis of this well.
Table 3: properties of the real well
Bottom hole flowing pressure (psig)

600

Initial gas oil ratio (scf/stb)

483

Initial Bottom hole pressure (psia)

5300

Reservoir temperature (F)

200

Gas specific gravity

0.65

Reservoir thickness (ft)

20

Connate water saturation (%)

20

Oil gravity ( API)

40

Porosity (%)

20

Well radius

0.25

Bubble point pressure (psia)

2300

The well has produced with a relatively constant gas oil ratio of 483 SCF/STB for about 27 month, before a work over is
performed on July, 2002 to clean out the well. Well test results have shown the true values of K= 1.09, s= -1.240 and A=68.91.
Figures 7 to 12 show different type curve analyses for this case.

Figure 7: Multi phase fluid production- second case

Figure 8: Traditional rate versus time analysis- second case

SPE 133432

Figure 9: Fetkovich type curve analysis- second case

Figure 10: Blasingame type curve analysis- second case

Figure 11: Agarwal Gardner rate versus time type curve analysis- second case

Figure 12: NPI type curve analysis- second case

SPE 133432

Table 4 compares the results of different decline curve analyses with the results of well test and presents the differences in
relative error.
Table 4: the comparison of different analyses results- second case
Method
Traditional

Fetkovich

Blasingame

Agarwal-Gardner

NPI

Parameters

Quantity

Relative Error (%)

K (md)
S
A (acre)
K (md)
S
A (acre)
K (md)
S
A (acre)
K (md)
S
A (acre)
K (md)
S
A (acre)

N/A
N/A
87.47
1.0802
-1.365
85.71
1.0124
-1.358
65.95
1.004
-1.595
70.09
1.0254
-1.628
73.71

N/A
N/A
26.9
0.9
10.1
24.4
7.1
9.5
4.3
7.9
28.6
1.7
5.9
31.3
7

Conclusion
Two cases were selected for studying the feasibility of decline curve analysis usage for determining key reservoir parameters.
The first case was an ideal synthetic model built in a manner that all the assumptions considered for deriving type curves is
honored. This case was analyzed to evaluate the degree of reliability and accuracy of decline curve analysis methods in
determining reservoir parameters. As was detailed in the paper, Blasingame and the other curves are capable of predicting such
parameters with an acceptable accuracy. The second case was analyzed to see if the decline analysis is still correct for a real oil
well. As pointed out in the paper, the degree of reliability for permeability and reservoir drainage area is quite good, but skin is
of more uncertainty. Furthermore, Blasingame type curve is shown to be the most accurate model. It is recommended to use
decline curve analysis for obtaining key reservoir parameters especially when reservoir pressure is above bubble point.
Nomenclatures
Greek Symbols
= difference
p = pressure difference, psi
= viscosity, cp
= porosity
English Symbols
A = drainage area, acre
B = formation volume factor, bbl/STB
ct = total compressibility, psi-1
D = instantaneous or current decline rate, D-1
Di = decline rate at flow rate qi, D-1
h = reservoir thickness, ft
k = permeability, md
N = oil in place, STB 103
Pdi = pressure integral
Pdid = pressure integral derivative
pi = initial pressure, psi
pwf = flowing bottomhole pressure, psi
q = flowrate, STB/d
Q = produced oil, STB
qDd = dimensionless flowrate based on decline rate
qi = initial flowrate, STB/d
re = drainage radius, ft
rw = wellbore radius, ft
rwa = damaged zone radius, ft
rwe = effective wellbore radius, ft

SPE 133432

s=
so =
tc =
tDd =

skin factor
oil saturation
superposition time (Q/q), day
dimensionless time based on decline rate

Subscripts
c = superposition
d = derivative
D = dimensionless
DA = dimensionless based on area
Dd = dimensionless based on decline rate (D)
i = initial
References
1. Agarwal, R.G, Gardner, D.C., Kleinsteiber, S.W, and Fussell, D.D. 1998. Analyzing Well Production Data Using Combined Type
Curve and Decline Curve Analysis Concepts. Paper SPE 57916.
2. Arps, J.J. 1945. Analysis of Decline Curves. Trans., AIME, 160, 228.
3. Arps, J.J. 1956. Estimation of Primary Oil Reserves. Trans., AIME, 182-191.
4. Blasingame, T.A., Johnston, J.L., and Lee, W.J. 1989. Type Curve Analysis Using the Pressure Integral Method. Paper SPE 18799
presented at the SPE California Regional Meeting, Bakersfield, CA, 05-07 April.
5. Blasingame, T.A, Lee, W.J. 1986. Variable-rate Reservoir Limits Testing. Paper SPE 15028.
6. Fekete Associates Inc. FAST RTA., http://www.fekete.com
7. Fetkovich, M.J. 1980. Decline Curve using Type Curves. JPT, 1065.
8. Fetkovich, M.J, Vienot, M.E, Bradley, M.D, and Kiesow, U.G. 1087. Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves - Case Histories.
SPEFE, 637.
9. Palacio, J.C and Blasingame, T.A. 1993. Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves Analysis of Gas Well Production Data. Paper SPE
25909.
10. Satter, A. and Thakur, G.C. 1994. Integrated Petroleum Reservoir Management: a team approach. Penn Well Books.

Appendix
Table A-1 shows the different equations used for modern decline curve analysis.
Table A-1: Different equations used for type curve analysis
Method

Parameter
k

Fetkovich
rwa & s

Blasingame

rwa & s

re

Equation

k =

q Dd

141.2 B re

ln

match h ( pi pwf ) rwa match 4

t
rwa =
t
Dd

A=

match

0.006328k

ct

1 re

2 rwa

1 ln e

match rwa
2

match 4

r
& s = ln w
r
wa

NBo

hso (43560)

p
=
q Dd

141.2 B re

ln

rwa

match

t
rwa = c
t

DA match

match 2

0.006328k

r
1 r
ct e
1 ln e

2 rwa
r
match wa

141.2 B tc
re = 0.006328
1
t
hct Dd
2

q
Dd

+ rwa

match

match 2

&

r
s = ln w
r
wa

10

SPE 133432

Agarwal&
Gardner

141.2 B p
k=
q
h
D

re

re =

rwa & s

NPI

rwa =

re

re =

rwa & s

0.00634k t c
ct t DA

rwa =

match

re
re

r
wa match

141.2 B
=

match

PD
P
q

&

r
s = ln w
r
wa

match

0.00634k t c
ct t DA
re
re

r
wa match

match
&

r
s = ln w
r
wa