Day

M
T
W
Th
F
M
T
W
Th
F

Customers

108
130
96
144
136
113
120
119
120
106

mean
119.2
119.2
119.2
119.2
119.2
119.2
119.2
119.2
119.2
119.2

3-day Moving
Average
Forecast
Forecast
Error

111.3
123.3
125.3
131.0
123.0
117.3
119.7
115.0

32.7
12.7
-12.3
-11.0
-4.0
2.7
-13.7

Absolute
Value of
Forecast
Error

Squared
Forecast
Error

32.7
12.7
12.3
11.0
4.0
2.7
13.7

1067.1
160.4
152.1
121.0
16.0
7.1
186.8

Chart

Customers

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
M

Th

Custome

Absolute
Value of
Percentage Percentage
Error
Error
MAPE

22.69%
9.31%
-10.91%
-9.17%
-3.36%
2.22%
-12.89%

MAE/MAD MSE

22.69%
9.31%
10.91%
9.17%
3.36%
2.22%
12.89%
7.71%

8.73

96.6

Chart Title

Th

Days
Customers

mean

Th

Day

Customers

Mean
M
T
W
Th
F
M
T
W
Th
F

108
130
96
144
136
113
120
119
120
106

Exponential
Smoothing
Forecst

119.2
119.2
108
119.2
114.6
119.2
109.02
119.2
119.514
119.2
124.4598
119.2
121.02186
119.2
120.715302
119.2
120.2007114
119.2 120.14049798
115.898348586

Forecast
Error

Absolute
Value of
Forecast
Error

Squared
Forecast
Error

22
22
484
-18.6
18.6
345.96
34.98
34.98
1223.6
16.486
16.486 271.7882
-11.4598 11.4598 131.327
-1.02186 1.02186 1.044198
-1.715302 1.715302 2.942261
-0.200711 0.200711 0.040285
-14.1405 14.1405 199.9537

Absolute
Value of
Percentage Percentage
Error
Error
MAPE
16.92%
-19.38%
24.29%
12.12%
-10.14%
-0.85%
-1.44%
-0.17%
-13.34%

MAE/MAD

MSE

16.92%
19.38%
24.29%
12.12%
10.14%
0.85%
1.44%
0.17%
13.34%
5.19%

5.707634276 67.06149

Using Data
Analysis
TookPak

Smoothing
Constant Using Data
()
Analysis
0.3 Err:512
108
115
109
120
124
121
121
120
120
116

Exponential Smoothing
200
150
100
Value
50
0
1

10

Data Point

Exponential Smoothing
200
150
100
Value
50
0
1

Data Point

9 10 11

al Smoothing
Actual
Forecast
6

10

Point

ial Smoothing
Actual
Forecast
6

Point

9 10 11

Day

Customers

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

108
130
96
144
136
113
120
119
120
106
120
110
100
96
94
92
88

Day 18
Customers
Correlation

18
92.7
0.647096

average
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941
111.2941

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.647096
R Square
0.418733
Adjusted R Square
0.379982
Standard Error
12.71117
Observations
17
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 1745.922 1745.922 10.80572 0.004988
15 2423.608 161.5739
16 4169.529

Intercept
X Variable 1

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
129.9118 6.448372 20.14644 2.84E-012 116.1674 143.6561
-2.068627 0.629297 -3.287205 0.004988 -3.409942 -0.727313

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation

Predicted Y Residuals
1 127.8431 -19.84314
2 125.7745 4.22549
3 123.7059 -27.70588
4 121.6373 22.36275
5 119.5686 16.43137
6
117.5
-4.5
7 115.4314 4.568627
8 113.3627 5.637255
9 111.2941 8.705882
10 109.2255 -3.22549
11 107.1569 12.84314
12 105.0882 4.911765
13 103.0196 -3.019608
14 100.951 -4.95098
15 98.88235 -4.882353
16 96.81373 -4.813725
17 94.7451 -6.745098

X Variable 1 Residual Plo

40
20
Residuals

0
-20 0

10

12

14

-40
X Variable 1

The risiduals tends to experience less variation as the day

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
116.1674 143.6561
-3.409942 -0.727313

Regression Table
160

144

140

130

136

120 119 120

120
113
120
110
108f(x) = - 2.068627451x + 129.9117647059 106
100
96
100

96

94

92

14

15

16

80
60
40
20
0

10

11

12

There is a clear linear downward trend

13

1 Residual Plot

10

12

14

16

18

X Variable 1

less variation as the days progress

110

12

100

13

96

94

92

88

14

15

16

17