Memorandum

To: The President

From: Kelsey Dunigan, Secretary of State
Subject: Options in Ukraine
Problem: Following protests and civil unrest in Ukraine, Russian separatists have been engaging
in actions against the Ukrainian government. Although denied by the Russian government, there
is agreement in the international community that Russia is aiding the rebel separatists materially
and intellectually. With the recent events of imprisoning Ukrainian military members, fleeing
civilians and the take down of both passenger and supply planes in pro-Russian territories, there
is a more elevated crisis for global security in Eastern Europe and beyond. Ukraine is not
militarily strong and will most likely lose in any direct conflict with Russia should the nation
decide to take action.
Much of Europes gas supply comes from of Russia. There is concern from allies and
constituents that Russia may decide to cut off natural gas supplies to Europe should there be
more direct action taken against the pro-Russian separatists. Approximately 16% of Europes
natural gas flows from Russia.i With winter approaching, decreased gas supply will leave a large
part of Europe in the cold.
Lastly, the Ukraine crisis branches out beyond the border with Russia. In recent months
Russian jets have circled U.S. and Canadian territory on the West Coast.ii China has had
increased discussions with Russia and these nations have strong relationships both economically
and politically, historically and currently. The PRC has been increasing their naval power.iii
Simultaneously, China has been claiming additional territories in the South China Sea, a very
similar case to Russia in the Ukraine.iv With much of our international focus honing in on the
Middle East with ISIS, our attention is being taken away from nations in the East and generally
everywhere else in the world.
Analysis and recommendations: Your administration overall has taken a stance of noninvolvement and passive commentary regarding the Ukraine crisis and other domestic and

international issues. With elections approaching in November, it is understood that maintaining a

certain political front is critical to your policy and political stance in your respective party.
Currently the sanctions against Russia are impacting their economy, however, the multiple
attempts at ceasefires have been disrupted and it is believed that pro-Russian rebels, fueled by
Russia itself, will not stop their advances. All aspects considered, it is recommended that the
humanitarian aid to Ukraine be continued, but U.S. troops on the ground should be avoided. In
addition to humanitarian aid, an increase in intelligence correspondence in the area should be
increased. Talks that occurred in the early months of your second term promised Russia a
lowered defense system against them and it is in your best interest to not go back on your word.v
Any other direct assistance in the Ukraine would demonstrate a higher stake against our
relationship with Russia.
However, there are a few changes that can be made domestically. The U.S. possess a large
amount of natural gas.vi In the chance that Russia is to cut off supply to parts of Europe,
domestically we should be increasing our gas production and begin talking with Europe about
potentially exporting to their nations, especially if Russia decides to block off their supply. We
should open the Keystone XL Pipeline to demonstrate that we are willing to be self-sufficient
and obtain natural resources from our own land.
Lastly, there needs to be a greater surveillance in the East, particularly on China. For many
months China has been left to their own devices without much dialogue with the U.S. despite
promises to increase communications between the nations earlier in your presidency. As our
surveillance and commentary on Chinas actions have decreased, their offensive forces have
increased. As in the Ukraine and Eastern Europe, our intelligence and surveillance of China
needs to also increase. Both of these nations are major players in the international theater and
need to be monitored closely. Direct, invasive action would be detrimental for all parties
involved because of military, nuclear and economic power. But, opening up a greater dialogue
with these two nations will develop stronger relationships, potentially preventing future
aggression and portray the administration as a diplomatic but interested global participant.
As for costs, our current budget for humanitarian aid in Ukraine will not change. Increased
funding needs to be funneled into our intelligence and diplomacy community to increase our
surveillance needs. Also, with the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline and export of LNG,
2

there will be some opportunity cost involved. Your campaign has run on a very green agenda and
following through with this plan may cost some negative feedback from supporters and
constituents. But, the economic benefits of exporting natural gas and the increased security
between the U.S. and Europe outweigh the costs. Offering our natural gas to Europe may
increase tensions between the U.S. and Russia because of economic competition.
Addressing and increasing conversations with China and Russia should not entail much cost,
however, it may give the sense of insecurity to their respective leaders. The goal is not to
interfere with any already-standing agreements and relationships with these countries, but rather
increase dialogue about an international presence and events occurring on their interior.
Expectations: With all of these recommendations in place, domestically, not only with your
administration preserve its intensions of being non-invasive, but it will also increase your public
repertoire as a leader who is interested and active in international issues. Opening up
communications with both China and Russia allows a greater chance of stronger relationships
through the remainder of your term and for future leaders. Increased production and exportation
of U.S. gas demonstrates self-sufficiency, increase trade relations with Europe and improve our
economic situation.
Internationally, the nations reputation abroad will be increased because the previous use of
force will not be present in the form of troops or direct combat, but rather our diplomatic force.
Continuing humanitarian aid is demonstrating that we side with Ukraine in the plight against
rebels without getting U.S. hands dirty. Increased surveillance will stay internally within the
intelligence community of the U.S. government, but will allow us to acquire greater intelligence
for future plans. Our increased awareness and interest globally will improve the administrations
previous reputation of passivity and slow-response.
It is critical that the U.S. maintain a strong front in international issues. Russia possesses great
global power and engaging directly with their government or Ukraine is a dangerous move.
Keeping ears and eyes opened abroad is your greatest chance of maintaining current peace
without turning backs on allies or engaging in these international issues directly. Both Russia and
China are pursuing the rebuild of respective historical empires, and are prodding and poking
to determine their limits and what our reactions will be. It is time to take a stance limited on
force and focused on increasing international communication and diplomacy.
3

"16% of Natural Gas Consumed in Europe Flows through Ukraine." U.S. Energy
InformationAdministration. U.S. Department of Energy, 14 Mar. 2014. Web. 25 Sept. 2014.
i

Gertz, Bill. "Russian Bombers Penetrated U.S. Airspace at Least 16 times in past
10Days." Washington Times. The Washington Times, 7 Aug. 2014. Web. 25 Sept. 2014.
ii

iii O'Rourke, Ronald. "China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy

CapabilitiesBackground and Issues for Congress." (n.d.): n. pag. Federation of American Scientists.
Congressional Research Service, 8 Sept. 2014. Web. 25 Sept. 2014.
Xu, Beina. "South China Sea Tensions." Council on Foreign Relations. Council on ForeignRelations,
14 May 2014. Web. 25 Sept. 2014.
iv

Goodman, J. David. "Microphone Catches a Candid Obama." The New York Times. The NewYork
Times, 26 Mar. 2012. Web. 25 Sept. 2014.
v

vi "U.S. Natural Gas Exports by Country." U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. EIA, 29Aug.

2014. Web. 25 Sept. 2014.