Analysis on the Russia-Ukraine Crisis and the Philippines for Mr.

Bongbong Marcos
Prepared by: Don McLain Gill
Introduction
With Russia biting the bullet and launching an invasion in Ukraine on multiple fronts, the unfolding
situation has become the worst crisis since World War II. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
recognition of the the rebel-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent adds another layer of
complexity towards the historical right of Ukraine to exist as a sovereign state. It is also important to
note that as the numbers of casualties and displaced people continue to pile up due to the unfolding
crisis, a major humanitarian crisis Europe is in the works.
Moreover, the burgeoning geopolitical trends taking place in Eastern Europe also have critical global
implication, which is why it is necessary to conduct a multi-dimensional analysis on a wide array of
factors that may impact the short-term, mid-term, and long-term interests of the Philippines.
Concerns
A. Short-term to Mid-term
While the Ukraine crisis may not gravely and directly impact the Philippines in the same manner as
other European states, it is still important to highlight some of the factors that may serve as obstacles
towards the growth trajectory of the country, given that it is still recovering from the economic
constraints brought by the Covid-19 pandemic.
A notable concern may be attributed to Issues on consumption and production in Southeast Asia. With
the Philippines positioning itself as an Asian middle power, energy becomes a vital aspect for
development. Thus, the crisis in Eastern Europe will inevitably impact states that are dependent on the
import of energy resources due to potential price hikes that will follow as the situation aggravates.
Another concern will be the rise of inflation. While the BSP predicted the inflation rate for 2022 to rise
to 3.7% from 3.4% before the crisis, the possibility of it rising further is quite high especially as the
issue deepens. This will burden the Philippine economy and its developmental trajectory further.
B. Mid-term to Long-term
While one may argue that the crisis is taking place in Europe is geographically distant from Southeast
Asia, it must be emphasized that it will have a considerable bearing on the strategic environment in
Asia. China has become a major element in Russia’s strategic equation to offset the sanctions slapped
on by the West. However, it must be noted that while China’s removal of restrictions for Russian wheat
imports is seen as a major development to cushion Moscow from the sanctions, China’s economic
partnership is still significantly outweighed by the Europeans in terms of energy imports from Russia.
While endeavours such as the Siberia Power 2 pipeline is being developed between Russia and China,
the process will still take a significant amount of time.
However, it will be expected that Russia’s need for China will only grow given the current situation.
The overall China-Russia relationship is flourishing into a robust strategic partnership as both states
seek to revise the global order and recalibrate its geopolitical architecture. As the West will continue to
be deeply involved in European Affairs, China will be able to effectively consolidate its power
throughout the continent, particularly with East and Southeast Asia as the seat of its power. This will
have considerable implications for the attempts of key Southeast Asian states, such as the Philippines,
to preserve their sovereign rights and territorial integrity in the South China Sea. Furthermore, Putin’s
stance on questioning the Ukraine’s historic right to exist and that it never had a “tradition of genuine
statehood”, can serve as a precursor for China to pursue a similar historically driven view vis-à-vis the
scope of its geographic borders throughout the region, which will inevitably overlap areas claimed by
the Philippines.
Analyzing and Understanding the Position of the Philippines and its Neighbors
 A. The Neighborhood
It is necessary to understand and evaluate the Philippine position in the context of regional responses.
In Southeast Asia, Indonesia called for negotiation and diplomacy while ruling out sanctions. Similar
official statements were heard from Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, calling for a peaceful solution.
Among the states in the region, Singapore strongly condemned the invasion of a sovereign country
under any pretext, while there is also a possibility for it to apply restrictions on exports. On the other
hand, the military-controlled Myanmar expressed its sympathy for Russia’s security concerns by stating
that what it has done is an “appropriate measure to preserve its sovereignty”.
In East Asia, both US-allies, Japan, and South Korea, have joined in the West’s efforts to sanction
Russia; however, South Korea will not impose unilateral sanctions. China on the other hand, presents
an interesting case. While it is against sanctioning Russia and continues to support it in international
organizations, it is also wary about explicitly supporting Russia’s support for separatists in Ukraine to
declare independence. This will be problematic for China given its predicament in Xinjiang, Tibet,
Hong Kong, among others. China’s awareness of such a double-edged sword has compelled it to caution
Russia on further escalation.
B. The Philippines
Being a middle power, a treaty ally of the US, and having China as a major trading partner, the
Philippines holds an incredibly important position in Asia. However, while some may question Manila’s
“neutrality” on the issue, it must be understood that the Philippines is practicing an informed, logical,
and practical level of political autonomy given the ever-dynamic geopolitical shifts taking place in the
region. The Philippines’ current position represents a clear adherence to the three major pillars of
Philippine foreign policy, which puts an emphasis on national security, the welfare of OFWs, and
economic security.
The Philippines emphasized that its top priority is the protection and wellbeing of the OFWs in Ukraine.
This is an undeniable representation of the national interest. Moreover, the Philippines’ relatively
position does not mean that it is endorsing Russia’s aggression against a much-weaker sovereign state,
but rather it shows a mature understanding of the geopolitical landscape. The Philippines has, along
with the rest of the members of ASEAN in a draft statement, called for maximum restraint and the
adherence to international law and sovereignty. However, given the complex and intensifying power
competition between the US and China in region, the Philippines will not want to further provoke the
already unstable security condition, which may later compromise its national and economic security. A
provoked Russia will create a more hostile environment in Europe, which will not only affect thousands
and millions of Europeans but will further exacerbate fuel prices and other vital commodities needed
for development.
The Philippine position demonstrates the need for all parties to abide by international law, while also
illustrating that its national interest cannot be compromised. Critics may call out the Philippines’
unreliability as a treaty ally of the US; however, such a thought is blatantly incorrect. The MDT with
the US puts a geographical emphasis on the Pacific and not Europe. If the time comes when an attack
would be made on either party in the Pacific, the Philippines will inevitably comply based on its respect
and responsibilities under the alliance. However, with the current situation, the Philippines will not
want to excessively reprimand Russia, given that when the time comes that China will increase its
assertive actions in Southeast Asia, Russia may serve as a useful bridge to limit China’s actions through
negotiations, which will serve as an important and alternative tool Manila can utilize in addition to US
support – which will be more conformational. The Philippines may not want to greatly jeopardize its
engagements with Russia right away given its sway on China and its growing partnership with other
Southeast Asian states such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia.

• Don McLain Gill is a Manila-based geopolitical analyst and author with over 90 publications on
Indo-Pacific affairs and Philippine foreign policy. He has written in the form of books, chapters,
peer-reviewed journal articles, and expert commentaries for renowned global institutions and
publishers, while also taking part in expert interviews and panel discussions with other renowned
analysts and scholars around the world.