GEOPOLITICS

Civil war
- War in Afghanistan
- Syrian Civil War
- Libyan Civil War
- Instability in Iraq
- Yemen civil war
- Libyan civil war
- South sudanese civil war
- Myanmar civil war

Political instability
- Instability in Lebanon
- Tigray War in Ethiopia
- Instability in Egypt
- Instability in the DRC

MAIN TROUBLED COUNTRIES IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION

- Taiwan:
Taiwan is torn between China and the USA → In Asia there are two China: the People’s
Republic of China, with its capital Beijing, and the Republic of China, based in Taiwan, with
its capital Taipei. This issue is causing serious international tensions and is likely to escalate
into war.
In recent decades, democratic reforms have been introduced in Taiwan and a vibrant
economy has developed. The country is inhabited by over 23 million people, almost all of
Chinese ethnicity. Political status is not defined and the island, despite being de facto
independent, is not a state recognized internationally, if not by a few countries. The main
options on the table are two: final independence or reunification with China, possibly
preserving a form of autonomy, as in the case of Hong Kong.

The issue, however, is complicated by international implications: the United States intends to
defend Taiwan’s independence, while not recognizing it as a sovereign country, and the
People’s Republic of China makes no secret of wanting to regain it.

In recent months the tension has increased again because of the military exercises carried
out on the island by the armed forces of the People’s Republic and the visit to Taipei by
Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the United States House.

- North Korea: Why is Pyongyang resuming its ballistic missile launch frenzy in 2023?
- Should we fear the resumption of nuclear tests (stopped for 6 years) in North Korea?

North Korea has changed its constitution and has been granted (permanent) nuclear power
status. The country has declared that it is approaching the brink of a nuclear war because of
the reckless actions of the United States, China, Japan and South Korea will hold a trilateral
summit as soon as possible. In the current year, North Korea has broken its record of
ballistic testing and has also declared the use of pre-emptive nuclear attacks for defensive
purposes.

- Why has the Washington-Pyongyang dialogue struggled to revive since 2019?

- What are the short-term hopes for rapprochement / détente between North Korea
and its southern neighbor?
- Is the "denuclearization" of the North Korean regime, hoped for in Seoul, Washington
and Tokyo, ever likely to happen? No

Handshake between putin and pyongyang: suspect that during this move to the borders of
the Russian, Chinese and North Korean territories the supply of North Korean military
equipment and ammunition to Russian troops deployed in Ukraine is being discussed

Relationship between China and Russia :

On September 15th, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol commemorated the 73rd
anniversary of the amphibious military operation in Incheon, southwest of Seoul. This
operation, led by General Douglas MacArthur, played a pivotal role in turning the tide of the
Korean War in favor of South Korea during the challenging summer of 1950. Meanwhile, over
2,300 kilometers to the northeast in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Russia, North Korean leader Kim
Jong-un continued his visit to Russia, a journey laden with symbolism. These contrasting
events highlight the stark divisions and complexities in the history of the Korean Peninsula.

The recent visit by North Korea's leader to Russia has been closely watched and analyzed by
the media, with particular attention to the meetings and gestures between Kim Jong-un and
Vladimir Putin, the unique mode of transportation used by the North Korean leader, and the
extensive security arrangements. This visit, coming four years after a similar train journey, is
shrouded in mystery and raises concerns.

The concern lies in the potential implications of this collaboration between North Korea and
Russia, which could involve arms and ammunition from North Korea's aging arsenal finding
their way to Russian troops deployed in the Ukrainian conflict, even without an official
invitation. There are doubts about the effectiveness of such warnings, given North Korea's
track record of flouting United Nations Security Council resolutions through missile tests,
including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and underground nuclear tests.

Additionally, China, which has been a key player in the region, remains discreet in its
response to Kim's visit to Russia. China, as North Korea's most significant trading partner,
has contributed to the country's stability despite its provocations and threats to South Korea,
Japan, and the United States.

In conclusion, the international community, particularly Western nations, is in a difficult

position regarding the Kim-Putin collaboration. While they criticize the move, they may be
uncertain about how to respond to the potential use of North Korean munitions by Russian
forces in Ukraine or the successful launch of a North Korean military satellite. The
geopolitical dynamics surrounding this situation are complex and have been in play since the
early days of the Cold War.

On September 4, 2023, a significant "summit" meeting involving Kim Jong-un, the leader of
North Korea, and his Russian counterpart in Vladivostok garnered international attention.
The meeting took place amidst events like the ASEAN gathering in Jakarta, India's
preparations for the G20 summit, and US-South Korean military exercises. Speculation arose
about discussions regarding North Korean military equipment and ammunition supplies to
Russian forces in Ukraine, although both Pyongyang and Moscow denied this. Meanwhile,
South Korean President Yoon criticized North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile
development at an East Asia Summit in Jakarta.

The meeting signaled North Korea's re-engagement with Russia, potentially involving
economic assistance and technical cooperation in sensitive technologies. Kim Jong-un's
earlier 2019 train journey to Hanoi for a summit with President Trump ended without the
expected diplomatic breakthrough. While Kim's exact motivations for this Russia visit remain
unknown, it's clear he wouldn't embark on this journey without the assurance of worthwhile
gains. Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo expressed concerns about potential North Korean arms
supplies to Russia, signaling possible consequences should such actions occur during the
75th-anniversary celebrations of the North Korean regime

- Afghanistan: Is the Taliban 2.0 government going to last (more than the previous
one...)?
The durability and stability of the Taliban's government in Afghanistan depend on various
factors, both domestic and international. Here are some key considerations:

1. International Recognition: The international community's recognition and

engagement with the Taliban government will play a significant role in its longevity.
Many countries and international organizations have adopted a "wait-and-see"
approach, conditional on the Taliban's behavior and adherence to international
norms, including human rights and counterterrorism commitments.
2. Governance and Inclusivity: The Taliban have faced challenges in governing
Afghanistan, including economic issues, providing public services, and ensuring
stability. The inclusivity of the government, including the representation of diverse
Afghan groups, will be essential for long-term stability.
3. Security Situation: The security situation in Afghanistan remains volatile, with the
potential for insurgent groups, including ISIS-K, to challenge the Taliban's authority.
The ability of the Taliban to maintain security and establish law and order will be a
critical factor.
4. Economic and Humanitarian Challenges: Afghanistan faces severe economic
challenges, with a need for international humanitarian assistance. The ability of the
Taliban to address these issues and provide for the basic needs of the Afghan
population will be a factor in the government's stability.
5. Regional Dynamics: The role of neighboring countries, such as Pakistan, Iran, and
China, will influence the stability of the Taliban government. Regional actors may
have varying interests and approaches toward Afghanistan.
 6. Resistance Movements: There have been reports of resistance movements and
pockets of resistance against the Taliban. The extent and sustainability of such
movements could impact the government's longevity.
7. International Pressure: Sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and other international
actions can influence the Taliban's actions and stability.

Is Kabul completely under the yoke of the Pakistani generals and the ISI?

Is international recognition of the Taliban regime on the table?

A country offered-forever-to crises, conflicts. external interference and bad
governance?
Could the international community one day (in the medium term) have to return
directly to the bedside of this fragile country?
tragic situation → Death to Europeans, death to Westerners, long life to the Islamic Emirate
of Afghanistan, death to Americans said by occidental Afghanistan

- Kashmir (India and Pakistan):So, debt trap, Trojan horse or various opportunities for
the participating countries?
The Kashmir conflict is a territorial conflict over the Kashmir region, primarily between India
and Pakistan, and also between China and India in the northeastern portion of the region.
Pakistan, after having illegally occupied half of Kashmir and having ceded part of it to China,
continues to base much of its foreign policy here. For about thirty years, he continued to
remotely pilot a series of assorted jihadist groups, which over time had transformed the
region into a real war zone. China is indirectly involved in the conflict. The question of
countries being heavily indebted to Beijing, often referred to as "debt-trap diplomacy," is
more broadly related to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure
development project that spans across many countries. China provides loans and
investments to participating countries for various infrastructure projects, and concerns have
been raised that some countries may struggle to repay these loans, leading to increased
Chinese influence or control over key assets in those countries.

Do the (overly) indebted countries have a viable alternative to Beijing?

In the context of Kashmir, the issue is primarily a territorial and political dispute between
India and Pakistan, and it is not directly related to debt or financing from China. While China
has an interest in the region due to its geopolitical importance, the Kashmir conflict is
fundamentally rooted in historical, political, and territorial issues between India and Pakistan.

Which countries are currently most directly exposed to this perilous situation?

Kashmir conflict primarily involved India and Pakistan, and not directly involved China: While
not a direct party to the Kashmir conflict, China has a stake in the region due to its control of
Aksai Chin, a territory claimed by India as part of its union territory of Ladakh. China and
India have had border disputes in this region, including the 1962 Sino-Indian War.
 South Asia and the Indian Ocean, favorite areas for the BIS ... and China's desire for
regional influence?

Has Beijing seen too big, too ambitious... and too expensive with this controversial
initiative?

Belt and road initiative: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as One Belt, One
Road (OBOR), is a massive infrastructure and economic development project initiated by the
People's Republic of China. It was officially launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping in
2013 and is one of the most ambitious and far-reaching international development initiatives
in recent history.

The BRI encompasses a wide range of projects, including the construction of roads,
railways, ports, airports, energy pipelines, telecommunications networks, and more. These
projects are designed to enhance trade and connectivity between China and other countries,
fostering economic cooperation and development.

Key features of the Belt and Road Initiative include:

1. International Scope: The BRI spans across multiple continents, with projects in Asia,
Africa, Europe, and even parts of South America. It involves over 140 countries.
2. Funding Mechanisms: China provides funding through loans, grants, and
investments to support BRI projects. The China Development Bank and the
Export-Import Bank of China are the main financial institutions involved.
3. Geopolitical Implications: The BRI has significant geopolitical implications as it
expands China's influence in regions crucial for global trade and energy resources.
4. Infrastructure Development: It is primarily an infrastructure development initiative,
focusing on transportation, energy, and telecommunications networks.
5. Critics and Concerns: The BRI has faced criticism on various fronts, including
concerns about debt sustainability in recipient countries, environmental impacts,
transparency, and questions about the political and strategic motives behind the
initiative.

Last news: The European Union will host leaders of some 20 countries next week to boost
its global infrastructure plan aimed at competing with China in strategic regions, according to
people familiar with the matter. Global gateway forum vs Belt and Road

India reiterates opposition to belt and road initiative: India has been severely critical of the
BRI as the project includes the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that
passes through Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir.

ARTICLES

The second anniversary of the Taliban's return to power in Kabul, Afghanistan, which
happened on August 15, 2021. The Taliban celebrated this occasion in major urban centers
of Afghanistan, using military vehicles left behind by Western forces and making assertive
statements about their control over the nation. It also highlights the challenges and criticism
faced by the Taliban regime, both at the international level and within Afghanistan.

In Afghanistan a large percentage of the population requires humanitarian assistance, and

millions are on the brink of famine. The Taliban's treatment of women and their continued
efforts to combat terrorism are also criticized, with particular attention to the activities of the
Islamic State Khorasan (Isis-K) in the country. The United Nations has expressed concern
about the Taliban's ability and willingness to combat the terrorist threat.

The most emblematic prime ministers or presidents of the moment? Shinzo Abe: the
youngest prime minister in Japan

CHINA

Tensions between China and India: have escalated following the release of China's new
official map, which claims territory in areas like Arunachal Pradesh. The situation
deteriorated despite earlier diplomatic meetings, including a recent one between Chinese
President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. China's publication of this
map has led to strong reactions from India, as it disputes Chinese territorial claims. The
Chinese government suggests that relevant parties remain objective and calm and avoid
overreacting to the issue, but this has not alleviated the growing dispute between the two
countries.

China’s role in Asian conflicts: Although China is not a direct combatant in Asia’s active
armed conflicts, its influence is felt through the stature of its economy and its regional
presence

- China is worried of the influence that the taliban’s regime in Afghanistan could have
on the Xinjiang’s would-be Uighur separatists
- Great chinese involvement in Pakistan and Myanmar → China has further enhanced
its security relationship with Pakistan via arms sales + China has been accepting of
Myanmar’s military junta, backing it internationally, providing aid and increasing its
economic investments in BRI projects and provind over 50% of arms arrived in
Myanintermar
- China will intervene in an armed conflict only if the security of the country was really
at risk
China’s Belt and Road: It’s a Chinese strategic initiative to improve its links with Eurasia →
Italy wants to quit Belt and Road initiative because of the absence of concrete proposals

Recent elections :

Taiwan 2024
Maldives 2023 (tensions with India) : In the Maldivian presidential election on September
30th, the opposition candidate, Mohamed Muizzu, who openly advocated for a pro-China
stance during the campaign, emerged victorious. He immediately announced his intention to
push for the departure of all Indian soldiers stationed in the archipelago. The Maldives, an
archipelago highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, consists of 200 inhabited
islands, with many of them dedicated to luxury tourism.
Muizzu's victory raised concerns in India due to his openly pro-China stance. He declared his
intention to remove Indian soldiers based in the archipelago, causing apprehension in New
Delhi.

-THAILAND :

The political situation in Thailand, while significant, is overshadowed by more pressing

issues in the region, such as North Korea's missile tests, escalating tensions in the Taiwan
Strait, and China's assertive actions in the South China Sea. Nevertheless, the ongoing
political turmoil in Thailand has captured the attention of many, highlighting the challenges
to democratic aspirations in the country.

Thailand has a history of military coups, with ten military takeovers occurring between 1932
(the establishment of constitutional monarchy) and 2014. Following recent legislative
elections, the pro-democracy movement appeared to have a majority, with the Move Forward
and Pheu Thai parties claiming a significant number of seats. However, the parliamentary
process for selecting a Prime Minister requires a minimum of 376 out of 750 legislators'
support, and Pita Limjaroenrat fell short of this threshold.

Additionally, allegations of irregularities in Pita's financial holdings during the election

process have raised concerns. The influential Election Commission recommended his
suspension for these alleged irregularities. If found guilty, Pita Limjaroenrat could face
imprisonment, the loss of his parliamentary seat, and a 20-year ban from politics. This has
led to peaceful protests by his supporters in various provinces of Thailand.

On July 13, Pita's candidacy did not receive the required number of votes, with only 324
legislators supporting him. The Senate, which is seen as loyal to the establishment, largely
rejected his candidacy. Despite this setback, Pita Limjaroenrat remained determined to
continue the fight for the position of Prime Minister. A new round of voting is scheduled for
July 19, with the hope of securing more support.

- MYANMAR :

Aung San Suu Kyi (important figure) : is a Burmese stateswoman. Figure of the
non-violent opposition to the military dictatorship of her country, winner of the Nobel Peace
Prize in 1991 She was at the head of government from 2016 to 2021 before the junta's coup
d'état.

Over the past two and a half years, the military has regained control over the democratic
aspirations of Myanmar's 55 million people. The military coup on February 1, 2021, showed
little regard for the well-being of the population and the economy, both severely affected by
the COVID-19 pandemic.
While the majority of nations disapprove of this new military adventure in a predominantly
Buddhist country, it has been overshadowed by the end of the pandemic and, since February
2022, by the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops. This has pushed the Myanmar crisis out
of the spotlight, particularly in the West, much to the junta's delight. Assessing the balance
of power between the military junta and the armed resistance, Asialyst interviewed Nan Su
Mon Aung, the representative of Myanmar's National Unity Government (NUG) in France.

Nan Su Mon Aung, a representative of Myanmar's National Unity Government (NUG),

discussed several key points regarding the situation in Myanmar. The NUG, formed after the
military coup on February 1, 2021, has established the People's Defence Forces (PDF) to
protect the population and is planning a counteroffensive in 2023, following heavy losses by
the junta. The Burmese military is demoralized, but they have external support and are willing
to use destructive force. The chances of dialogue between the junta and NUG remain slim,
as the junta continues its repression. Holding general elections proposed by the junta is
unlikely to succeed, as it would not be viewed as free and fair.

The holding of elections is the only option envisaged by the junta to legitimize its power.
Originally scheduled for August 2023, in line with the 2008 constitution, which limits the
state of emergency to two years, the junta postponed them indefinitely. The junta itself
admitted that the conditions were not met after losing control of most townships in the
country. However, there are rumors about the possibility of holding online elections. These
pseudo-elections are unlikely to be free and fair and will be massively boycotted by voters, as
political parties that won nearly 90% of the seats in 2020, including the National League for
Democracy, were banned by the junta in March. Despite the false allegations used to justify
the coup, the 2020 elections were considered free and fair by international observers.
Therefore, there is no valid reason to hold new elections.

The international community has entrusted ASEAN with the responsibility of resolving the
crisis in Myanmar, but no progress has been made in two years, despite the exclusion of
junta leaders from ASEAN summits and the adoption of a resolution on Myanmar by the UN
Security Council in December 2022. Instead of ending violence, the military has escalated
abuses and manipulated UN special envoys to gain international legitimacy

- INDIA :

the upcoming visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Paris, marking the 25th
anniversary of the France-India strategic partnership. The relationship between France and
India has grown stronger due to concerns about China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, bilateral trade between France and India is still significantly lower than
France-China trade.

The partnership between France and India covers various aspects, including civil nuclear
cooperation, defense, counter-terrorism, and space, cybersecurity, and digital technology.
The article highlights that both countries aim to uphold democratic values and maintain a
multipolar world order, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
Despite the strong strategic partnership, trade between France and India lags behind its
potential. The article mentions some challenges, including Indian protectionism, an
asymmetric relationship, and limited Indian investors in France. It also discusses India's
"Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan" (self-reliant India) policy, which raises questions about its
impact on French and European businesses operating in India.