SASKATCHEWANS CHOICE

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,509 Saskatchewan residents by Smart IVR on March 31st,
2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.72%, 19 times out of 20.
Regional margins of error: Regina: +/-4.37%; Saskatoon: +/-4.39%; Rest of SK: +/-4.35%, 19 times out of
20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

THE
EASIEST
PREDICTION
WE WILL
EVER MAKE
You already know what this is going to say. If the outcome of the Saskatchewan election was clear at the
start it is even clearer now. Thats why were declaring this the easiest election weve ever had to call.
The Saskatchewan election was delayed from its scheduled xed election in early November of 2015 due to
conicting schedule with the federal election. As the unocial campaign began in the winter of 2016, major
national issues and international issues were making headlines that aected Saskatchewan directly,
specically, the prolonged oil price decline, questions about pipeline development, and the consideration
of a national plan for carbon pricing. During this time, Brad Wall was the voice defending the resource
interests of Saskatchewan, supporting pipeline development in Energy East and making a case against
carbon pricing during this downturn. This is the natural advantage of incumbency, as Premier, Brad Wall
was able to speak to these issues and stand up for Saskatchewan interests.
As the campaign began, Brad Wall and the Sask Party enjoyed a tremendous lead over the NDP and Cam
Broten. The campaign began with the dissolution of the Saskatchewan Legislature on March 8 2016 and
some opportunities for growth were there for the NDP and Liberals as media attention would be balanced
across all leaders and parties.
Instead of making gains the NDP spent its rst week ring candidates and then ring their campaign
manager - it was a terrible start. A shouty debate later in the campaign also didnt do much to move the
needle.
During the last federal election, we saw stable voter intention patterns in very few regions in Canada,
Saskatchewan being the sole region that remained consistent and stable from start to nish in the
marathon campaign. In other words, there was never any doubt.
The only remaining questions at this point are about the size of the majority, whether the NDP can maintain
their seat count in the Legislature, and whether the Sask Liberals will come in third or fourth.
Brad Wall is going to win. You were right all along.
- QM

A4

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY MAJORITY GOVERNMENT

April 1st, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the Saskatchewan Party on cruise
control for a victory Monday night. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.72%, 19
times out of 20.
Brad Wall is on track to win a new majority government said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet
Research. The Saskatchewan Party has support across all regions. 91% of Saskatchewan supporters say
they are strong supporters who will not change their minds. Its over.
There is some question as to whether the Green Party will be able to deliver its support to the polls.
Traditionally, the Greens always underperform their poll numbers and in this case the Green Party does not
have a full slate.
Mr. Broten started this campaign by putting out res. Burnt by social media he headed into a must-win
debate which need to be a game-changer - it wasnt. The NDP may be able to pull o some upsets in urban
centres but it will take local candidates far out-running the party brand with some of the best campaign
talent on the ground.
Polling Saskatchewans election has been a privilege. I am pleased that following the election we will
continue to look at key issues aecting the province. Mainstreet was the only polling rm to regularly
release numbers throughout the campaign. I want to thank the thousands of Saskatchewan residents who
took part in Mainstreet Polls in this election, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A5

If the provincial election were held

today,which party would you support?

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4

Feb 11

SK Party

Feb 23

NDP

Mar 1

Liberal

Mar 8

Green

Mar 15

UD

Mar 31

A6

If the provincial election

were held today,which party
would you support?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

SK Party

51%

51%

59%

55%

56%

52%

NDP

26%

31%

26%

27%

24%

31%

Liberal

4%

3%

2%

3%

5%

1%

Green

5%

4%

2%

3%

4%

3%

Undecided

14%

11%

11%

12%

12%

12%

Sample

240

301

407

561

710

799

PC

Saskatchewan

Regina

Saskatoon

Rest of SK

SK Party

54%

42%

48%

60%

NDP

28%

37%

32%

23%

Liberal

3%

2%

4%

3%

Green

4%

4%

4%

3%

Undecided

12%

15%

13%

10%

1,509

503

499

507

Sample

A7

And which party are you

leaning towards voting for?
[Undecided Only]

11%

9%

3%

9%

68%

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

UD

A10

DECIDED AND LEANING

65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4

Feb 11

SK Party

Feb 23

NDP

Mar 1

Liberal

Mar 8

Green

Mar 16

UD

Mar 31

A11

If the provincial election

were held today,which party
would you support?
[DECIDED AND LEANING]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

SK Party

58%

56%

65%

61%

62%

58%

NDP

29%

35%

30%

31%

27%

35%

Liberal

5%

4%

3%

4%

6%

2%

Green

8%

5%

3%

3%

5%

5%

198

270

375

530

685

688

PC

Sample

Saskatchewan

Regina

Saskatoon

Rest of SK

SK Party

60%

49%

54%

66%

NDP

31%

44%

35%

26%

Liberal

4%

3%

5%

4%

Green

5%

4%

6%

5%

1,373

460

456

457

Sample

A12

Support Strength

SK PARTY
Strong 91%
Might Change 6%
Not Sure 2%

NDP
Strong 83%
Might Change 12%
Not Sure 5%

Liberals
Strong 69%
Might Change 19%
Not Sure 12%

A13

Second Choice

SK PARTY
22%

49%
10%

19%

NDP

25%
34%

22%

20%

A14

SCRIPT

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change Mind
Dont Know
And who would be your second choice?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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