a)

Period Actual Naïve Error Abs. Error Sqrt. Error Abs.Error/Actual

1 35 - - - - -
2 40 35 5 5 25 12.50%
3 30 40 -10 10 100 33.33%
4 40 30 10 10 100 25.00%
5 30 40 -10 10 100 33.33%
6 25 30 -5 5 25 20.00%
7 25
SUM 40 350 124.17%
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
-2.0 8 87.5 24.83%

b)
Period Actual Arithmetic Error Abs. Error Sqrt. Error Abs.Error/Actual
1 35 - - - - -
2 40 35 5 5 25 12.50%
3 30 37.5 -7.5 7.5 56.25 25.00%
4 40 35 5 5 25 12.50%
5 30 36.25 -6.25 6.25 39.06 20.83%
6 25 35 -10 10.00 100 40.00%
7 33.33
SUM 33.75 245.31 110.83%
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
-2.75 6.75 61.33 22.17%
22.17

c)
Period Actual Moving Error Abs. Error Sqrt. Error Abs.Error/Actual Period
1 35 1
2 40 2
3 30 3
4 40 35 5 5 25 12.50% 4
5 30 36.67 -6.67 6.67 44.44 22.22% 5
6 25 33.33 -8.33 8.33 69.44 33.33% 6
7 31.67 7
SUM 20 138.89 68.06% 8
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE 9
-3.33 6.67 69.44 22.69% 10
22.67 11
d) 12
Period Actual Wtd. Moving Error Abs. Error Sqrt. Error Abs.Error/Actual
1 35
2 40
3 30
 4 40 34 6 5 36 12.50%
5 30 37 -7 7 49 23.33%
6 25 33 -8 8 64 32.00%
7 29.5
SUM 20 149 67.83%
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
-3 6.7 74.5 22.61%
23.43

e)
Period Actual Exponential Error Abs. Error Sqrt. Error Abs.Error/Actual
1 35 - Period
2 40 35 5 5 25 12.50 1
3 30 35.5 -5.5 5 30.25 16.67 2
4 40 34.95 5.05 5 25.50 12.50 3
5 30 35.46 -5.46 5.46 29.76 18.18 4
6 25 34.91 -9.91 9.91 98.20 39.64 5
7 33.92 6
SUM 30.36 208.71 99.49 7
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE 8
-2.16 6.07 52.18 19.90% 20.26 9
20.26 19.90 10
11
12
Actual Moving Error Abs. Error Sqrt. Error Abs.Error/Actual
4
6
5
5
10
8 7.3 0.7 0.7 0.49 0.0875
7 7.65
9 7.4
12 8.25
14 10
15 11.75
13.30
Actual ExponentiaError Abs. Error Sqrt. Error Abs.Error/Actual
4
6
5
5
10 8 2 2 4 20
8 8.3 -0.3 8.6 0.09 73.96
7 8.255 -1.255 9.51 1.575025 90.4401
9 8.06675 0.93325 7.1335 0.870956 50.88682
12 8.206738 3.793263 4.413475 14.38884 19.47876
14 8.775727 5.224273 3.551454 27.29303 12.61282
15 9.56 5.44 4.118736 29.60048 16.96398
10.38
v
X Y F Y/F
1 3.5 4.271 0.819
2 8 5.818 1.375 Y
3 5.5 7.364 0.747
27.5
4 10 8.910 1.122
5 9.5 10.456 0.909 25
6 14 12.002 1.166 f(x) = 1.54615384615385 x + 2.72527472527472
22.5 R² = 0.94043966223679
7 11.5 13.548 0.849
8 16 15.095 1.060 20
9 15.5 16.641 0.931 17.5
10 20 18.187 1.100
15
11 17.5 19.733 0.887
12 22 21.279 1.034 12.5
13 21.5 22.825 0.942
10
14 26 24.371 1.067
15 25.92 7.5
16 27.46 5
17 29.01
2.5

0
SUMMARY OUTPUT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.96976268 Y=2.725 + 1.546(X)
R Square 0.94043966
Adjusted R Squa 0.9354763
Standard Error 1.69420473
Observations 14

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 543.8596 543.8596 189.476359 1.034E-08
Residual 12 34.44396 2.87033
Total 13 578.3036

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 2.725 0.95641 2.849483 0.01463681 0.641436 4.809114 0.641436 4.809114
X Variable 1 1.546 0.112325 13.76504 1.0338E-08 1.301419 1.790888 1.301419 1.790888

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals Seasonal Indices:

1 4.271 -0.771429 Quarter 1 0.900
 2 5.818 2.182418 Quarter 2 1.177
3 7.364 -1.863736 Quarter 3
4 8.910 1.09011 Quarter 4
5 10.456 -0.956044
6 12.002 1.997802 Seasonally Adjusted Forecast:
7 13.548 -2.048352 Quarter 1 3.846
8 15.095 0.905495 Quarter 2 6.847
9 16.641 -1.140659 Quarter 3
10 18.187 1.813187 Quarter 4
11 19.733 -2.232967 Quarter 5
12 21.279 0.720879 Quarter 6
13 22.825 -1.325275 Quarter 7
14 24.371 1.628571 Quarter 8
Quarter 9
Quarter 10
Quarter 11
Quarter 12
Quarter 13
Quarter 14
 Y

385 x + 2.72527472527472
79

Y
Linear (Y)

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Upper 95.0%
T Actual F1 Error Abs. Error Sqrt. Error Abs.Error/Actual
1 165 150 15 15 225 0.091
2 190 170 20 20 400 0.105
3 145 160 -15 15 225 0.103
4 210 190 20 20 400 0.095
5 200 175 25 25 625 0.125
6 170 190 -20 20 400 0.118
7 120 140 -20 20 400 0.167
sum 1175 135 0.804
282 19.29 11.49

0.24
T Actual F2 Error Abs. Error Sqrt. Error
Abs.Error/Actual
1 165 170 -5 5 25 0.030
2 190 185 5 5 25 0.026
3 145 155 -10 10 100 0.069
4 210 225 -15 15 225 0.071
5 200 190 10 10 100 0.050
6 170 180 -10 10 100 0.059
7 120 135 -15 15 225 0.125
1240 70 0.431
297.6 10 6.15