Assignment on

Relation between Incidence and Prevalence

(VEP 321)

Submitted to:
Dr. Mohan Prasad Gupta

IAAS, Rampur Campus

Rampur

Submitted by:
Mr. Suraj Subedi

Roll No.: 29

B.V.Sc. & A.H. 5th Sem.

IAAS, Rampur Campus

Relationship between Prevalence and Incidence
Prevalence depends upon 2 factors, the incidence and duration of illness.
i.e. P α I × D

Given the assumption that population is stable and incidence and duration are unchanging, the relation
between incidence and prevalence can be expressed as

P=I×D
P = Incidence × Mean Duration
So to know clearly about the relation about the relation, we have to know what these terms actually
mean. So these terms are described below.

Incidence Rate

Incidence Rate is defined as the number of new cases occurring in a frequency of population
during a specified period of time. It measures the frequency of new cases of a disease in a given period
of time i.e. it measures the rate at which people without a disease develop the disease during a specified
period of time.

Incidence rate = (No. of new cases of a specific disease during a given period of time / Population
at risk during that period ) × 1000

Thus incidence rate

• Refers only to new cases
• During a given period (usu. a year)
• In specified population at risk
• Also refer to new spells or episodes of diseases arising in a given period of time per 1000
population

Incidence measures the rate at which new cases are occurring in a population. It is not influenced by
duration of diseases. The use of incidence is usually restricted to acute condition.

Prevalence
Prevalence is a static measure of total number of affected individuals in a population at a
given time. The term disease prevalence refers especially to all current cases (older or new) existing at a
given point in time or over a period of time in a given population. A broader definition of prevalence is
the total no of all individuals who have an attribute or disease at a particular time (of during a particular
period) divided by the population at risk of having the attribute or disease at a point in time or midway
through the period. Prevalence can be interpreted as the probability of an individual from a population
having a disease at a specified point in time.
Two types of prevalence are reported in the epidemiological literature:
1. Point or instantaneous prevalence rate (IPR) which equals the number of disease cases in a
population at a single point in time (a snapshot)
2. Period prevalence rate (PPR) equals the point prevalence at the beginning of a study period
plus the number of new cases that occurred during the remainder of the study period.
 Point prevalence of a disease is defined as the total no. of all current cases (new and old) of a
disease at a point of time in relation to a defined population. The point prevalence may be for all purpose
consists of a day, several days or even a few weeks depending upon the time it takes to examine the
population sample.
Point prevalence = Number of existing cases of a disease / Population at a moment

Prevalence measures the residual of such illness, the amount existing at a given point in time in a
community.

Period prevalence measures the frequency of all current cases (old and new) existing during a defined
period of time (e.g. annual prevalence) expressed in relation to defined population. It includes cases
arising before but extending into or through to the year as well as those cases arising during the year.
Period prevalence = No. of existing cases of a disease during a period or interval / Avg. population

Period prevalence equals the point prevalence at the beginning of a study period plus the no of
new cases occurred during the remainder of the study.

Incidence would include cases – 3, 4, 5 and 8

Point Prevalence (Baisakh 15) cases – 1, 2 and 7
Point Prevalence (Marga 15) cases – 1, 3, 5 and 8
Period Prevalence (Baisakh 15 to Marga 15) – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 8

Prevalence Rate is not an ideal measure for studying disease etiology or causation. Incidence rate should
be used optimally in formulation and testing or etiological hypotheses because incidence rate is related
to the occurrence of diseases and duration to factors which affect the course of the diseases.
Relationship between Prevalence and Incidence
Prevalence depends upon 2 factors, the incidence and duration of illness. Given the assumption
that population is stable and incidence and duration are unchanging, the relation between incidence and
prevalence can be expressed as

P=I×D
P = Incidence × Mean Duration

e.g. (for a stable condition)

Incidence = 10 cases per 1000 population per year
Mean duration of disease = 5 years
Prevalence = 10 × 5 = 50 per 1000 population

The above equation P = I × D shows that the longer the duration of disease, the greater is the
prevalence. e.g. Tuberculosis has a high prevalence rate relative to incidence. This is because new cases
of tuberculosis keep cropping up throughout the year while the old one may persist for months or years.

On the other hand, in case of acute/short duration of diseases either because of rapid recovery or
death, prevalence rate will be relatively low compared with incidence rate. e.g. food poisoning, the
disease is short lived and there are no old cases. The same is true for condition which are rapidly fetal
such as homicides.

Likewise for disease with high incidence like common cold, the prevalence is also very high
because new cases are very commonly emerging. In contrast to disease like disease like diphtheria, the
new cases rarely occur and it has low prevalence as compared to common cold.

When we see a change in prevalence from one time period to another, this can result from
change in prevalence from one time period to another; this can result from changes in incidence, change
in duration of disease or both. e.g. improvements in treatment may decrease the duration of illness and
thereby disease prevalence of a disease. Further if duration is decreases sufficiently a decrease in
prevalence could take place despite an increase in incidence.
Conclusion:

Thus there is a direct relationship between of Incidence rate and Duration of disease. The
increase in mean duration of disease directly increases and vice versa. Similarly the incidence rate
increment like in epidemic and pandemic directly increases the Prevalence Rate of that disease.
So, P α I × D is true.
Bibliography

Gupta M.H. (2009) Lecture notes on epidemiology, 5th Sem.

Park K. (2000) Park’s Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 10 thedition,

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