Assignment Topic:

Measure Of Disease Occurance

Subject:
Veterinary Epidemiology and Public Health
Submitted To;
Dr.Sajid Hameed
Submitted by;
Shahzaib Aslam
Roll No#
21
Department:
FV & AS
 MEASURE OF DISEASE OCCURANCE
Definition :
Incidence refers to the occurrence of new cases of disease or injury in a population over a
specified period of time. Although some epidemiologists use incidence to mean the
number of new cases in a community, others use incidence to mean the number of new
cases per unit of population.

Prevalence:
 Prevalence, P, is the number of instances of disease or related attributes (e.g., infection or
presence of antibodies) in a known population, at a designated time, without distinction
between old and new cases.
 When the time is not specified, prevalence usually refers to point prevalence; that is, the
amount of disease in a population at a particular point in time.
 Period prevalence refers to the number of cases that are known to have occurred during a
specified period of time; for example, a year (annual prevalence). It is the sum of the
point prevalence at the beginning of the period and the number of new cases that occur
during the period, and can therefore be used when the exact time of onset of a condition
is not known (e.g., some behavioural condition).
 Lifetime prevalence is the number of individuals known to have had disease for at least
part of their life. Although prevalence can be defined simply as the number of affected
animals, it is most meaningful when expressed in terms of the number of diseased
animals in relation to the number of animals in the population at risk of developing the
disease: number of individuals having a disease
P = at a particular point in time
number of individuals in the population
at risk at that point in time
 For example, if 20 cows in a herd of 200 cows were lame on a particular day, then the
prevalence of lameness in the herd on that day would be 20/200, that is, 0.1. This is a
proportion that represents the probability of an animal having a specified disease at a
given time. Prevalence can take values between 0 and 1, and
is dimensionless. Sometimes, it is expressed as a percentage. Thus, a prevalence of 0.1
= 10%. Additionally, if a disease is rare, its prevalence may be expressed as:
number of cases of disease x 10"
population at risk
where n is an integer depending on the rarity of the disease. Thus, prevalence may
be expressed per 10 000 population at risk (n = 4) or per 1 000 000 population at
risk (n = 6).
Incidence:
 Incidence is the number of new cases that occur in a known population over a specified
period of time. The two essential components of an incidence value are:
1. the number of new cases;
2. the period of time over which the new cases occur.
 Incidence, like prevalence, can be defined simply in terms of the number of affected
animals, but again is usually expressed in relation to the population at risk.
Cumulative incidence:
 The cumulative incidence, el, (also termed risk) is the proportion of non-diseased individuals
at the beginning of a period of study that become diseased during
the period:
number of individuals that become that become
diseased during a particular time
CI= number of healthy individuals in the
population at the beginning of that period

 It is therefore a proportion that can take values between a and 1 (or 0-100%), and is
dimensionless.
Incidence Rate:
o Incidence rate, I, measures the rapidity with which new cases of disease develop over
time:
number of new cases of disease that occur
I=in a population during a particular period of time
the sum,overall individual of the length of the
time at a risk of developing disease
o The denominator is measured as 'animal-years at risk'. This is the sum of the periods of
observation for each animal during which the latter is free from the disease (i.e., is at
risk). As soon as an animal becomes diseased, it no longer contributes to this value. For
example, six cows, free from disease, observed for 1 year would constitute '6 animal-
years at risk; equally,one cow observed for 6 years would constitute '6 animal-years at
risk'.
o An example of calculation of incidence rate Note that incidence rate has a dimension,
time-I; incidence rate is calculated per animal-week, per animal-year, and so on. This unit
of time is sometimes termed the internal time component. If the incidence rate has been
estimated for one time period, x, it can be extrapolated to other periods,
y: Iy = I/y/x),
assuming that the rate is constant (Martin et al., 1987).
For example, if the incidence rate has been estimated as two cases per animal-year at risk, and
the rate per animal-month is required, then y = 1 and x = 12 (1 year = 12 months), and: Iv = 2(1/12)
. = 0.17 per animal-month at risk.
Similarly, an incidence rate of two cases per animal month at risk is equivalent to 24 cases per
animal-year at risk.
The technique is based on the idea that the movement to the diseased state depends on:
• the size of the population;
• the period of observation;
• the 'force of morbidity'.
The relationship between prevalence and incidence rate
 A disease with a long duration is more likely to be detected during a cross-sectional
survey than is a disease of short duration.
  For example, chronic arthritis, lasting for several months, could be detected by a cross-
sectional abattoir survey that was undertaken any time during the several months that the
arthritis was present.
 However, clinical louping-ill, lasting for a few days, could be detected by a cross-
sectional survey only if the survey was conducted during the short period that the disease
was apparent.
Prevalence, P, therefore depends on the duration, V,
and the incidence rate, I, of a disease:
podxV.
This means that a change in prevalence can be due to:
• a change in incidence rate;
• a change in the average duration of the disease;
• a change in both incidence rate and duration.
Mortality:
 Mortality measures are analogous to incidence measures where the relevant outcome is
death associated with, rather than new cases of, a specific disease.
Cumulative mortality:
 Cumulative mortality, eM, can be estimated in a similar way to cumulative incidence, but
with the numerator comprising the number of deaths due to a particular disease over a
specified period of time, and the denominator comprising the number of individuals at risk of
dying during that period. Diseased animals present at the beginning of the period of
observation are included in the denominator.
CM =number of individuals that die during a particular period
number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period

Mortality rate:
 Mortality rate (mortality density), M, is calculated similarly to incidence rate. The
numerator comprises the number of deaths. However, since an animal is at risk of dying
after onset of disease, animals that develop disease continue to be included in the
denominator until they die.
number of deaths due to a disease that occur in
M= a population during a particular period of time
the sum, over all individuals, of the length
of time at risk of dying
Death rate :
o The death rate is the total mortality rate for all diseases rather than one specific disease -
in a population. (Some authors do not distinguish between mortality rate and death rate.
Thus, a disease-specific death rate may be encountered. Similarly, a crude mortality rate,
referring to deaths from all causes, may be described.)
Case fatality :
 The tendency for a condition to cause the death of affected animals in a specified time is
the case fatality,
CF. This is the proportion of diseased animals that die:
CF = number of deaths
 ------------------
number of diseased animals
 It measures the probability of death in diseased animals, is dimensionless, and can take
values between o and 1 (or 0-100%).
 The value of the case fatality depends on the time of observation, which can range from a
brief period of hospitalization to several years. If the period of observation is long (e.g.,
in cases of chronic diseases such as cancer), it is more appropriate to quote survival.

Survival :
 Survival, S, is the probability of individuals with a specific disease remaining alive for a
specified length of time.
S= N-D
N
'