Scenario Planning: A

Tool for Strategic

Thinking

Group 5
Manu Agarwal (02)
Tanusmita Ghoshal (14)
Sukhada Jadhav (16)
Rohit Jain (20)
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 What is Scenario?
• A scenario planning is that part of strategic
planning which relates to the tools and technologies
for managing the uncertainities of the future.
• Gill Ringland

• Originally used in military warfare strategic

planning, currently widely used all over the world
in a wide range of problem areas

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“The whole group has been fired with the view
of how can we create products which were
earlier within reach of the vast number of
people through innovation and technology, not
just stripping down the value of the product.”
-----RATAN TATA
TATA NANO
TATA SWACH
CAR RUNNING ON WATER

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 Why Scenario ?

SCENARIO

CONTINGENCY
• MULTIPLE SENSITIVITY SIMULATION
FACTORS
CONSIDERED • ONE FACTOR
CONSIDERED
• MAHINDRA -
SATYAM

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 BUILDING BLOCKS OF SCENARIO

DRIVERS OF CHANGE

BASIC TRENDS KEY UNCERTAINTIES

(GREEN REVOLUTION) (POST HARVESTING)

RULES OF INTERACTION

MULTIPLE SCENARIO
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 Drivers of Change
• P OLITICAL
• E CONOMICAL (MARKET OPENESS, PRICING etc)
• S OCIO – CULTURAL (
• T ECHNOLOGICAL (FARMING & CROP TECHNology)
• E NVIRONMENTAL (WATER AVAILIBILTY, SOIL
DEGRADATIONCLIMATE CHANGE)
• L EGAL

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 WRT AGRI
• (AVAILIBILITY OF CREDIT, CROP
SPECIFIC PROGRAMMES etc)

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SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS
• Define the Scope
• Indentify the Major Stakeholders
• Indentify Basic Trends
• Identify Key Uncertainties
• Construct Initial Scenario Themes
• Check for Consistency and Plausibility
• Identify Research Needs
• Deevelop
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