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Thayer Prospects For A 'Jasmine Revolution' in Vietnam
Thayer Prospects For A 'Jasmine Revolution' in Vietnam
[client name deleted]
Regarding Nguyen Dan Que, who was arrested over the weekend but now appears
to have been released on bail: his ‘crime’ seems to be calling for protests similar to
what we saw in the Middle East lately. How worried should the Vietnamese regime
be about that kind of protest actually happening? Things are looking bad in terms of
inflation and the like, but is it bad enough at this point ‐‐ and are regime opponents
organized enough ‐‐ that we could see big marches in the streets of Hanoi or Ho Chi
Minh City?
ANSWER: Nguyen Dan Que's arrest was just to send a warning to other activists that
the regime is watching and will react.
The pro‐democracy network is Vietnam does not have a track record for mounting
large demonstrations or other major public protests. Despite present economic
difficulties, I do not think the regime suffers from a legitimacy crisis. It has multiple
sources of legitimacy and though the basis of some of these sources has been under
attack (performance legitimacy or delivering the economic goods) there is no
widespread feeling among the elite that the regime is oppressive or lacking in
legitimacy. The recent party congress saw the party respond to its delegates. The
May elections for the National Assembly will be another safety valve. And some
sections of Vietnam's press push the envelope.
The political situation in Vietnam has not generated the sort of grievances which
have led to mass unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain or Libya. Even China's 'jasmine
revolution' has not gained traction. So my bottom line is that there will not be large
or even massive street protests in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City.