Call It What It Is:

China’s Grey Zone Operations are Illegal,

Coercive, Aggressive and Deceptive (ICAD)
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to
The Current Challenges to the Stability, Security and Peace
in the South China (West Philippine) Sea
13th Virtual International Conference on the South China (West Philippine) Sea
Sponsored by
National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea
Manila, The Philippines, May 14, 2024
 Outline

1. Grey Zone Operations

2. Illegal, Coercive, Aggressive and Deceptive
3. Whole of Government
4. Alliance and Multilateral Engagements
5. A Modest Proposal
 1. Grey Zone Operations
• Grey Zone – an Area
• The grey-zone describes the space in between peace and war in
which state and non-state actors engage in competition
• Grey Zone Tactics
• Sirens, dangerous maneuvers, water canons, lasers
• Grey Zone Operations
• Coast Guard vessels, Maritime Militia trawlers, fishing boats
• Grey Zone is not a Strategy – ends, ways, means
 2. Illegal, Coercive,
Aggressive and Deceptive (ICAD)
• Illegal, Coercive, Aggressive and Deceptive
• Gen. Romeo Brawner, Chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines
• “China’s grey-zone tactics are aptly described by Gen.
Brawner, who called it ‘illegal, coercive, aggressive and
deceptive’.”
• Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander Indo-Pacific Command
• “We should call it what it is” – ICAD
• General Angus Campbell, Chief of the Australia Defence Force
 Mutual Defense Treaty
• ARTICLE IV
• Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on either
of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and
declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance
with its constitutional processes.
• ARTICLE V
• For the purpose of Article IV, an armed attack on either of the Parties is
deemed to include an armed attack on the metropolitan territory of
either of the Parties, or on the island territories under its jurisdiction in
the Pacific or on its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific.
 3. Whole of Government
• Debate in Australia
• Seahawk, HMAS Toowoomba, two P8-A Poseidon incidents
involving Chinese military aircraft
• All elements of national power
• Diplomacy
• Prime Minister, Defence Minister with their counterparts
• Military
• expel Chinese Defence Attache, suspend combined exercises
• Economic and Informatin
 4. Alliance
and Multilateral Engagements
• Deterrence and Diplomacy
• US DOD: capability, will and communication
• Mutual Defense Treaty
• Armed attack (review and update interpretation)
• Joint naval patrols
• Combined activities on Second Thomas Shoal
• US Marines temporary rotation, helicopter resupply
 Whole of Government Approach
Needs Teeth
• “If the Australian government is serious about our regional security, it
needs to be more serious in how it decides to combat this dangerous
pattern of behaviour.
• Michael Shoebridge, Director, Strategic Analysis Australia
• “The Australian government needs to look harder for actions that seek
to impose some cost on Beijing for its aggressive and risky behaviour.”
• Peter Jennings, Former Director of Australian Strategic Policy Institute
• “Australia must demonstrate that it is prepared to respond with its
partners and allies to China’s comprehensive campaign in the region.”
• Jennifer Parker, ANU National Security College
 5. A Modest Proposal
• Naval air presence at Second Thomas Shoal
• Escort resupply vessels (Rules of Engagement)
• Multiple activities in dispersed locations
• Capability development – proportional response
• Target water canons with drones
• Unmanned surface vessels (‘fishing nets’ to foul
propellers)
• Shoring up BRP Sierra Madre + helicopter landing pad
 Call It What It Is:
China’s Grey Zone Operations are Illegal,
Coercive, Aggressive and Deceptive
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to
The Current Challenges to the Stability, Security and Peace
in the South China (West Philippine) Sea
13th Virtual International Conference on South China (West Philippine) Sea
Sponsored by the
National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea
Manila, The Philippines, May 14, 2024