Probabilistic analysis of

retaining walls

Ananthakumarathas .J
2720203
 Objectives
• The difference between reliability-based
design and factors of safety design.
• Probabilistic analysis to embedded retaining
wall, related to normal random variables,
using Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.
• Finally obtain a probabilistic analysis finite
element software development
 Introduction of retaining wall

• Resist the active earth pressures in most

cases.

• Fos method
– single values assigned to the mechanical
properties of soils and with a single factor
estimating the safety of the design
 Probabilistic analysis
• Depends on the relationship between the
predicted and actual lateral loads.
• Probabilistic analysis procedure by reliability
index β
• The probability of failure, is the probability
that R will be equal to or less than S.
– Pf =p (z<0) ; z=R-S
 Continue...
• Reliability index β,
β =mz /σz mz = mean value of Z
σz =standard deviation of Z
Advantage of probabilistic analysis
• More reliable than other methods

• service life is high

• High factor of safety is equal to small

probability of failure, so it’s efficient design
 Probabilistic analysis and factor of safety

• Factor of safety depends on

– Height of the retaining soil.
– Depth of the wall in the ground
– Friction angle
– Unit weight of the soil
– Position of the water table
 Probabilistic analysis steps
• Take variables
– Unit weight (γ) X1
– Ka X2
– Kp x3
• Calculate active & passive forces in variables X1,X2
and X3.
• Find Resistance and disturbance forces
• Z=R-S in variables
• g1=dz/dX1.....g2,g3
 Continue....
• σz= (g1*σx1+........)

• α1= (g1*σx1)/ σz

• New X1= x1-(β* α1* σx1) assume for β

– New x2 and x3
Finally same value has been z β value
Next objective
obtain a probabilistic analysis finite element
software development
Thank you