Report

Calgary Firefighters
Association Municipal
Election Poll
October 5, 2021

Prepared by

EDDIE SHEPPARD, PhD, VICE PRESIDENT

(587) 393-7974
kesheppard@leger360.com
DATE 2021-10-05
Methodology
METHODOLOGY

Web survey using computer-assisted Web interviewing (CAWI) technology.

From October 1st to October 4th 2021 (n=500).

• Comparisons to data collected from September 24th to 27th, 2021 (n=500) are shown throughout.

500 residents of Calgary Proper 18 years of age or older.

No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (direct mail in this case). However, for comparative
purposes, a probability sample for each of the following would have a margin of error of ±4.38%, 19 times out of 20. Data was
weighted by age and gender.
Throughout the report, some numbers may not add up to 100%. These different are due to rounding.
Voting Intentions
Detailed Results
 All Voters
Jyoti Gondek (27%) is leading Jeromy Farkas (24%) among all voters, showing that there is a
marginal gap between the leading candidates. However, 29% of Calgarians are unsure who they
would vote for in the Calgary Municipal election.

Jyoti Gondek 27%

26%

Jeromy Farkas 19%

24%

Jeff Davison 11%

12%

Brad Field 5%
5%

Jan Damery 4%
3%

Other 2%
2%

Zane Novak 1%
1%

Undecided 31%
29%

September 24 - 27 (n=500) October 1 - 4 (n=500)

0001 If a Calgary municipal election were held today, which candidate would you be most likely to vote for: 5
Base: All (n=500)
 All Voters:
Gondek leads in most areas, particularly within 18-44 voters, while Farkas leads within 55+
voters. Female respondents and those in the Southeast are most likely to remain undecided.

HOME
AGE GENDER QUADRANT OWNERSHIP
Calgarians
(n=500)
18 – 34 35 – 44 45 – 54 55 – 64 65+ Male Female SW SE NW NE Own Rent
(n=116) (n=76*) (n=122) (n=92*) (n=94*) (n=227) (n=273) (n=159) (n=136) (n=145) (n=60*) (n=374) (n=119)
Jyoti Gondek 26% 25% 30% 30% 18% 24% 25% 26% 25% 20% 30% 28% 24% 29%
Jeromy Farkas 24% 17% 12% 23% 41% 32% 28% 19% 25% 24% 23% 20% 26% 18%
Jeff Davison 12% 13% 13% 10% 7% 16% 15% 9% 15% 9% 8% 15% 12% 12%
Brad Field 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 7% 3% 3% 9% 2% 5% 5% 2%
Jan Damery 3% 1% 9% 2% 4% 2% 2% 5% 4% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Other, please 2% 3% 2% 0% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 3% 3% 2% 1%
specify:
Zane Novak 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2% 0% 0% 1% 2%
I don't know 29% 31% 30% 32% 24% 22% 22% 35% 26% 34% 29% 27% 27% 33%

% indicates a significantly higher proportion than the % in the same segment

0001 If the Calgary municipal election were held today, for which candidate would you be most likely to vote for…?
Base: All (n=500); data from October 1 - 4 6
*Caution low sample size, results are directional.
 Undecided Voters
Leaning voters are favouring Gondek (8%) over Farkas (7%) and Davison
(6%), but the majority continue to remain undecided (71%).

Jyoti Gondek 3%
8%

Jeromy Farkas 8%
7%

Jeff Davison 5%
6%

Brad Field 2%
4%

Jan Damery 2%
3%

Zane Novak 0%
2%

Other 1%
0%

Undecided 78%
71%

September 24 - 27 (n=156) October 1 - 4 (n=142)

0002 Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following candidates would you be most likely to vote? 7
Base: Those who are currently undecided as to who they will vote for
 Undecided Voters
The majority of leaning voters remain undecided (71%).

HOME
AGE GENDER QUADRANT OWNERSHIP
Calgarians
(n=142)
18 – 34 35 – 44 45 – 54 55 – 64 65+ Male Female SW SE NW NE Own Rent
(n=37*) (n=23*) (n=41*) (n=21*) (n=20*) (n=45*) (n=97*) (n=40*) (n=46*) (n=40*) (n=16*) (n=100) (n=39*)
Jyoti Gondek 8% 10% 0% 6% 10% 16% 7% 9% 5% 13% 7% 5% 7% 12%

Jeromy Farkas 7% 6% 4% 9% 9% 4% 6% 7% 11% 4% 8% 0% 9% 2%

Jeff Davison 6% 7% 4% 4% 5% 10% 0% 10% 7% 6% 4% 7% 6% 5%

Brad Field 4% 2% 4% 5% 5% 5% 2% 5% 2% 4% 5% 5% 5% 2%

Jan Damery 3% 0% 0% 4% 10% 5% 0% 5% 2% 6% 2% 0% 1% 9%

Zane Novak 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 3% 0% 7% 1% 3%

Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Undecided 71% 70% 88% 71% 61% 59% 85% 62% 73% 64% 75% 77% 71% 68%

% indicates a significantly higher proportion than the % in the same segment

0002 Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following candidates would you be most likely to vote?
Base: Those who are currently undecided as to who they will vote for (n=142); data from October 1 - 4 8
*Caution low sample size, results are directional.
Satisfaction with City Services
Detailed Results
 71% of Calgarians are satisfied with fire and emergency response, while 63% are satisfied with
waste and recycling, and 57% are satisfied with police services.
Top 2 Satisfaction

Fire & Emergency Response 4%2%4% 20% 45% 26% 71%

Waste & recycling 1% 6% 11% 19% 49% 14% 63%

Police Services 3% 6% 12% 23% 40% 17% 57%

Public Transit 6% 6% 15% 27% 39% 8% 47%

Bylaw enforcement 5% 9% 14% 30% 36% 5% 41%

Arts & culture 6% 7% 16% 32% 32% 7% 39%

Citizen Engagement & Insights 15% 7% 12% 35% 25% 6% 31%

City Planning & Policy 7% 10% 22% 31% 23% 6% 30%

Business Licensing 31% 3% 5% 32% 23% 6% 29%

Land Development & Sales 17% 7% 19% 33% 21% 4% 25%

Don't know 1 = very dissatisfied 2 = dissatisfied 3 = neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 4 = satisfied 5 = very satisfied

0004 How would you rate your satisfaction with these key City of Calgary departments? 10
Base: All (n=500); October 1 – 4, 2021.
 74% of Calgarians believe that it is important to ensure international standards for
staffing, equipment, and adequate resourcing for the Calgary Fire Department.

7% 18% 31% 43%

1 = not at all important 2 = slightly important 3 = somewhat important 4 = important 5 = very important

0005 When considering the safety of Calgarians, their families and fire fighters, on a scale of one to five, with one being not at all important and five being very important, how important is ensuring
international standards for staffing, equipment, and adequate resourcing for the Calgary Fire Department?
Base: All (n=500)

73% of Calgarians would be less likely to vote for a mayoral candidate who
proposes to reduce the number of fire halls, fire fighters, or fire trucks.
73%
10% 17%

More likely Less likely This would not impact my decision

0006 If a candidate for mayor were to propose reducing the number of fire halls, fire fighters or fire trucks, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for that candidate? 11
Base: All (n=500); October 1 – 4, 2021.
Respondent Profile
Respondent Profile: Age, Gender, and Income
QUADRANT
Calgarians
(n=500) SW SE NW NE
(n=159) (n=136) (n=145) (n=60)

Age

18-34 33% 31% 32% 28% 47%

35-44 14% 15% 17% 11% 15%

45-54 24% 23% 24% 29% 13%

55-64 14% 14% 14% 15% 13%

65+ 15% 16% 13% 17% 11%

Gender

Male 45% 46% 41% 45% 49%

Female 55% 54% 59% 55% 51%

Income

Under $40K 14% 13% 11% 15% 19%

$40K-$79K 23% 23% 22% 22% 29%
$80K+ 51% 52% 60% 47% 43%
I prefer not to answer 11% 12% 7% 16% 8%

13
Respondent Profile: Age, Gender, and Income
QUADRANT
Calgarians
(n=500) SW SE NW NE
(n=159) (n=136) (n=145) (n=60)

Age

18-34 23% 22% 24% 19% 33%

35-44 15% 16% 18% 11% 18%

45-54 24% 24% 24% 29% 15%

55-64 18% 18% 18% 19% 18%

65+ 19% 20% 16% 21% 15%

Gender

Male 45% 48% 40% 49% 42%

Female 55% 52% 60% 51% 58%

Income

Under $40K 14% 13% 12% 14% 20%

$40K-$79K 23% 23% 24% 21% 30%
$80K+ 50% 50% 57% 47% 40%
I prefer not to answer 13% 13% 7% 19% 10%

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Respondent Profile: Employment

QUADRANT
Calgarians
(n=500) SW SE NW NE
(n=159) (n=136) (n=145) (n=60)
WORKING 62% 64% 68% 55% 58%
Working full time 45% 44% 49% 42% 47%
Working part time 9% 10% 11% 6% 10%
Self-employed / freelance work 7% 9% 7% 7% 2%
Student 4% 4% 3% 6% 5%
Homemaker 5% 6% 4% 4% 8%
Unemployed 8% 9% 7% 7% 10%
Retired 20% 17% 18% 26% 15%
I prefer not to answer 1% 1% 0% 2% 3%

15
Respondent Profile: Home Ownership, Type of Area

QUADRANT
Calgaria
ns
(n=500) SW SE NW NE
(n=159) (n=136) (n=145) (n=60)
Home Ownership
Own 75% 70% 76% 79% 73%

Rent 24% 29% 23% 19% 23%

I prefer not to answer 1% 1% 1% 2% 3%

Type of Area
Urban area 54% 68% 40% 50% 55%

Suburban area 46% 32% 60% 50% 43%

Rural area 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%

I don’t know/ I prefer not to answer 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%

16
Respondent Profile: Education, Children in the Household

Calgaria QUADRANT
ns
(n=500) SW SE NW NE
(n=159) (n=136) (n=145) (n=60)
Education
HIGH SCHOOL OR LESS 14% 12% 15% 14% 20%
College/Diploma 24% 20% 32% 17% 30%
UNIVERSITY 61% 67% 52% 69% 48%
I prefer not to answer 1% 1% 1% 0% 2%
Children Under 18 in the Household
Yes 31% 33% 35% 22% 43%

No 68% 67% 65% 78% 55%

Prefer not to answer 0% 1% 0% 0% 2%

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