Module 2 (continued)

Continuous Probability Distributions

Normal Probability Distribution
Applications
• symmetrical about the vertical at the mean, skewness = 0
• mean, median and mode are situated at the same place, i.e.
have same value of the random variable
• left and right hand tails of the curve extend indefinitely but
never touches the abscissæ, i.e. the x-axis. This is the
asymptotic property of the Normal curve
• has a single peak, i.e. unimodal
• Mesokurtic

Pr (X)

X
mean, median and mode
Normal Probability 1  ( x   )2 /2 2
Density Function f (x)  e
 2  < x,


Univariate Normal Probability Distribution
Pr(X)
X = hourly
customer count
X ~ N ( 110,  = 20)
in a shop


  
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 X

6  = 6 * 20 = 120
Parameters are
 (mean) and
standard devation)
Empirical Rule:
Only for a Normal probability distribution the following rules
hold true

About 68% of the observations will lie within 1 the mean

About 95% of the observations will lie within 2 of the mean

Nearly all the observations will be within 3 of the mean

Unique property of the Normal probability distribution

X ~ N (,  )

3 quality level

3223
Pr(X)

1
0.5 0.5

 X

Pr(X)
Example 1

Is this possible?
0.68
If yes, what is the chance?

Test 
marks X
100 55  65
100 - +

X = test score (out of 100) Approximately 20 students

X ~ N ( 60,  = 5) will have scores ranging
between 55 and 65.
There are 30 students.
Pr(X)
Example 2

0.95


X
0.28 mm  0.32 mm
 - 2  + 2

X = diameter of a syringe
95 syringes will have
X ~ N ( 0.3 mm,  = 0.01 mm) diameters in the range
The lot has 100 syringes. 0.28 mm and 3.02 mm.
Pr(X)
Example 3

0.95 0.99
2 + 2


X
1.6 cms.  2.6 cms.
 - 2  + 3

X = diameter of a cork
How many corks will
X ~ N ( 2 cms.,  = 0.2 cm.) have diameter between
1.6 and 2.6 cms.?
The packet has 25 corks.
Pr(X)
Example 4

1 - 0.05
2
0.05
2

X
9” 
 - 2
How many days will encounter
X = snowfall snowfall above 9”?
X ~ N ( 13”,  = 2”)
What is approximately the
In December + January maximum and minimum snowfall?
Daily sales = 17
(Rs. crores) = 2
X ~ N (, ) Base change
Z=x– Standardisation
X
 Scale change
10 -3.5
11 -3
Z ~ N ( , )
13 -2
15 -1
16 -0.5
= 0
18 0.5 Z
20 1.5
-3.5 -3 -2 -1 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4
22 2.5
24 3.5 = 1
25 4
Z ~ N ( 0, 1)
 Z values: -ve  Z values: +ve
Z values

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359

0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478 0.0517 0.0557 0.0596 0.0636 0.0675 0.0714 0.0753
dark grey area
0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871 0.0910 0.0948 0.0987 0.1026 0.1064 0.1103 0.1141

0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255 0.1293 0.1331 0.1368 0.1406 0.1443 0.1480 0.1517

0.4 0.1554 0.1591 0.1628 0.1664 0.1700 0.1736 0.1772 0.1808 0.1844 0.1879
 Pr (z)
Pr ( 0 < z < 0.92) = ?

= 0.3212
Z
-3 -2 -1 0 0.921 2 3

Z values

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852

0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133

0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389

1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621

1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
 Pr ( z > 0.92) = ?

= 0.5 - 0.3212
= 0.1788
-3 -2 -1 0 0.921 2 3

Z values

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852

0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133

0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389

1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621

1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
 Pr (- 0.92 < z < 0) = ?

= 0.3212

-3 -2 --1
0.92 0 1 2 3

Z values

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852

0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133

0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389

1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621

1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
 Pr (1.82 < z < 2.37) = ?

= 0.4911 – 0.4656

= 0.0255

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
1.82 2.37

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
 Pr (-1.82 < z < 2.37) = ?

= 0.4911 + 0.4656

= 0.9567

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
- 1.82 2.37

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
 Pr (-2.32 < z < -1.75) = ?

= 0.4898 - 0.4599

= 0.0299

-3 -2.32- 2- 1.75 -1 0 1 2 3

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
Example 5
‘Sugar Plop’ boxes say they hold 50 gms. To make sure they
do, the manufacturer fills the box to a mean weight of 52
gms.
with weights having a standard deviation of 2 gms. If the
weight follows a Normal distribution,
(a) what % of the boxes contain 55.4 gms. or more?
Random variable: X = weight of Sugar Plop boxes
X ~ N (),  = 52 gms.,  = 2 gms
Pr ( x > 55) = Pr x -  > 55.4 – 52
 2
= Pr (z > 1.7)
= 0.5 – 0.4554
1.7 = 0.0446
Thus, 4.46 % of Sugar Plop boxes weigh 55.4 gms. or more.

1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545

1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633

1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
(b) Out of 20 boxes, how many weigh less than 49.52 gms.?

Pr ( x < 49.52) = Pr x -  < 49.52 – 52

 2
= Pr (z < -1.24)
= 0.5 – 0.3925 -1.24

(c) What is the chance that every one of the 4 boxes I have
bought will weigh less than the amount specified?
Random variable: X = weight of Sugar Plop boxes
X ~ N ( ),  = 52 gms.,  = 2 gms
Pr (x < 50) = Pr x –  < 50 – 52 = Pr (z < -1) = 0.5 - 0.3413
 2 = 0.1587
Pr (all 4 will weigh less than 50 gms.) = (0.1587) 4 Why?
(d) What is the range of weight of these boxes?

(e) Yizzu: I apprehend that 4% of people who buy these boxes

are dissatisfied with the amount of sweets.
Gigilina: Are you sure?
Yizzu: I don’t know yet. What I know is that anyone getting
more than 50.5 gms. is satisfied.
Gigilina: Let’s work it out!

Pr ( x < 50.5) = Pr x - m < 50.5 – 52

 2
= Pr (z < -1.5)
-1.5
= 0.5 – 0.4332 = 0.0228
 Only 2.28% of the customers are dissatisfied
 Yizzu’s apprehension is not correct
Example 6 X = experience (in yrs.) 17 15
13 13
The VP(HR) of an organisation wants to send 17 14
Personnel Managers (PM) with less than 12 years 14 15
of experience to a training programme (TP) and 12 18
wants to know the number of people who will 14 16
attend the programme so as to suitably make 18 15
13 15
arrangements. Of the total no. of 100 PMs in the
15 16
organisation, how many will be sent for the TP?
Histogram
16 11
9 15 17
Pr (X)
8 17 16
7
Frequency

6 13 16
5 14 12
Frequency
4
3 14 16
2 15 15
1
0 16 18
19
X = experience (in yrs.)
 Mean = 15 yrs., variance = 4 yrs.2

Pr (X < 12) = Pr X – 12


= Pr z < 12 – 15 = Pr (z < -1.5) = 0.5 – 0.4332
2 = 0.0668

number of people who will attend the programme

= 100 * 0.0668
= 6.68
7
Example 7 Media Planning

During the next Wimbledon Championship, ADIDAS wants to

insert some advertisements in Star Sports, a popular sports
channel . Assuming that age of viewers (ranging between 18
and 72 years) follows a Normal distribution, how many
viewers will age between 24 and 37 years? Estimated no. of
viewers of SS = 1,00,000

Random variable: X = age of viewers

X ~ N (),  = ?,  = ?

3= 18, 3=

72
= 45, =
Example 8 Case: Platinum People Market Segmentation

Mr. Printy, the vice president of Citibank is busy discussing

the feasibility of the Platinum Credit Card (PC). The
discussion was about different aspects of the affluent people
of the society - the whims of their behaviour, their attitude
towards spending, frequency of ‘big’ purchases, etc.
Under the apprehension that too many astronomical
transactions would be difficult to handle immediately, it was
decided that not more than 4% of the already existing EC-
holders should be considered for this card. The number of
PC issued may be increased later, depending on their
acceptability and the capacity of the bank.
‘Elite Card’ was introduced by the bank 3 years earlier and
were given to the customers with monthly income exceeding
Rs. 80,000. Survey done earlier revealed that the monthly
income of the EC-holders followed a Normal distr. with mean
Rs. 1.4 lakh.
(a) Mr. Printy required to know the monthly salary from which
to start giving out the PCs. Help him.

Random variable: X = income of EC-holders

X ~ N ( ),  = 1.4 ,  = ?

Minimum income of EC holder = Rs. 0.8 lakhs

  – 3 = 0.8   = 0.2
 Pr ( x > ?a ) = 0.04
0.04
Pr x -  > a? – 1.4 = 0.04
 0.2

? X
a
0.5 - 0.04 = 0.46

0.04 0.05 0.06 0.04

1.7 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608

Z
1.8 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 a – 1.4
= 1.75
0.2
 a = 1.75 Start giving Platinum Cards to EC holders,
whose monthly income exceeds Rs. 1.75 lakhs.

(b) It was later decided that 12% of the lower tail end of the
EC-holders should be given an added benefit – increasing
their credit limits by 10%. Who will be the lucky ones?

Pr ( x < ?b ) = 0.12

Pr x -  < b? – 1.4 = 0.12

 0.2
 0.5 - 0.12 = 0.38

Prob (Z)
0.12

b – 1.4 = -1.18 b=?

0.2

Start giving added benefit of extra credit to EC holders,

whose monthly income falls below Rs. ……….. lakhs.
(c) Find the actual income (Q) of an EC holder
whose percentile rank (as per income) is 43.

Random variable: X = income of EC-holders

X ~ N (),  = 1.4,  = 0.2

0.07
Pr ( x < Q) = 0.43
0.43
 Pr x – < Q – 1.4 = 0.43
 0.2
 Q – 1.4 = - 0.18
0.2 - 0.18
 1.04
 Rs. 1 lakh 4 thousand
Example 9
In a test, students were awarded 3 grades – A
(best), B (mediocre) and C (work hard!). 1/5 of the students
got ‘A’ and ¼ got ‘C’. The average marks were 62 and the
variance was 100. Find cut-off marks for the 3 grades.

X = marks Pr (X) B
X ~ N (, ), where  = 62,  = 10
0.55
Pr ( x > A) = 0.2
0.25
 Pr x -  > A – 62 = 0.2 0.2
 10
C A X
 Pr ( z > 0.84) = 0.2
 A – 62 = 0.84
10
 A = 70.4  70
Pr ( x < C) = 0.25 0 – 55 is C
 Pr x -  < C – 62 = 0.25 56 – 69 is B
 10
70 – 100 is A
 Pr ( z < - 0.67) = 0.25
 C – 62 = - 0.67
10
 C = 55.3  55
Example 10 Percentile Problem
Instructions
HP has introduced a new model with a MIPS per second
rating of 310. Determine the percentile rank (IPS) is a
for this model. Assume MIPS ~ N (200, 50). measure of a
X = MIPS rating computer's
X ~ N (, ), where  = 200,  = 50 processor
Pr ( x < 310) = Pr x -  < 310 – 200 speed.
 50 MIPS =
= Pr ( z < 2.2) million
= 0.4861 + 0.5 instructions
= 0.9861 per second
Percentile rank of MIPS rating of 310 is 98.61
Example 11
An organization wanted to know the MIPS rating
corresponding to (a) 90th percentile and (b) 15th percentile.
Assume the mean and SD given in the previous example.

X = MIPS rating
X ~ N (, ), where  = 200,  = 50
Pr ( x < a) = 0.9
 Pr x – < a – 200 = 0.9
 50
 Pr ( z < 1.28) = 0.9
 a – 200 = 1.28
50
 a = 264
= MIPS rating corresponding to the 90th percentile
Pr ( x < b) = 0.15
See the table for area
 Pr x -  < b – 200 = 0.15 = 0.5 – 0.15
 50 = 0.35
 Pr ( z < - 1.04) = 0.15
 b – 200 = - 1.04
50
 b = 148
= MIPS rating corresponding to the 15th percentile
Example 12 Case – Binge of Burgers

Mc Burger, the rival of Burger King heard that IBM had

cancelled the contract with Burger King. Excited about a
‘promising’ contract Ms. Jizi, the owner of Mc Burger
started planning a variety of burgers and other fast-food
she might provide the IBM canteen. She discussed it with
her friend Hihoha.
Jizi: So, what burger filling do people prefer the most?
Hihoha: Mushroom with avocado paste, spiced with oregano.
Jizi: You are serious?
Hihoha: Yes. But the trick is in the amount of
avocado paste one uses in a burger.
Jizi: Trick of the trade!
Hihoha: Yes! The average amount should be 20 grams.
Jizi: But, it is difficult to maintain a steady average! There will
be variation.
Hihoha: True! But, make sure that only 2% of the burgers has
less than 15 grams of this paste.
Jizi: What is the optimum range of this paste, which
customers will find tasteful?
Hihoha: Well! The average amount should be 16 to 24 grams.
Jizi : If I make 120 such burgers a day, how many will be
‘tasteful’?
Hihoha: Let the students do it. Why are you breaking your
head?
Random variable: X = amount of avocado paste
X ~ N (),  = 20 gms.,  = ?
Pr ( x < 15) = 0.02
 Pr x -  < 15 - 20 = 0.02
 
 - 5 = - 2.05   = 2.44



Pr ( 16 < x < 24) = Pr 16 – 20 < x -  < 24 – 20

2.44  2.44
= Pr (-1.64 < z < 1.64)
= 2*0.4495
Out of 120 such burgers, 107.8 ( 108) will be ‘tasteful’.