Morning Note

01 JULY 2011

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DATA MATRIX OF LAST SESSION

INDEX Sensex Nifty Midcap Smallcap Close 18846 5647 6854 8157 %Chg 0.81 0.83 0.32 0.58

FIRST LIGHT HEADINGS

VALUE TRADED (Rs Crs)

BSE NSE F& O Total Total Volume 2685 15469 181644 197112

%Chg
-13.05 35.01 9.83 9.55

MARKET INSIGHT
On Thursday 30 June 2011, The Indian equity markets snapped the session and the June F&O series

very elegantly and on an optimistic note. The usual volatility of the expiry day was completely missing from the markets and the indices held up to their gains firmly throughout the day. The volatility appeared in the last for the good, helping the markets for a sharp gain in last half an hour, it seemed there were lots of shorts to be covered for the series. The June series proved to be of tremendous gains with indices adding over 4 percent from the last series. The sentiments at the Dalal Street were underpinned by the sharp fall in the weekly food inflation that gave a sense of respite among the rate sensitive's. India's food inflation after soaring to its two and half month's high level in the last week has fallen to 7.78 % on annual basis for the week ended June 18, from an annual rise of 9.13% recorded in the last week. In the intraday trade the benchmarks were able to scale their crucial psychological levels of 18850 (Sensex) and 5650 (Nifty). Some weakness was seen in the metal counter after the global metal prices edged lower overnight, while some worry was seen on the PSU oil companies too, after the international crude prices surged. Defensive sector FMCG was the top

NET INFLOWS (Rs Crs)

FIIs DIIs 1591.0 (773.0)

%Chg
137.82 221.29

FII OPEN INTEREST (Crs)

FII Index Futures FII Index Options FII Stock Futures FII Stock Options 11729 26750 28750 165

%Chg
-35.90 -51.27 -13.00 -73.58

World Indices
Dow Jones Nasdaq FTSE 100 12414 2774 5946

%Chg
1.25 1.24 1.54

gaining sectoral indices, supported by surge in HUL, Nestle, Godrej Consumer Products and ITC. While, the Realty sector too was in demand from the very beginning The BSE Sensex gained 152.01 points or 0.81% and settled at 18,845.87 and NSE Nifty also ended 46.95 points or 0.84% up at 5647.40. The BSE Mid-cap index gained 0.32% while Smallcap index gained 0.57%. On the BSE Sectoral front, FMCG up 1.83%, Realty up 1.19%, Consumer Durables up 1.19%, IT up 0.69% and Capital goods up 0.65% were the top gainers. On the flip side, only HealthCare sector closed slightly down 0.03% were the only losers. India VIX, a gauge for market's short term expectation of volatility lost 5.39% at 18.41 from its previous close of 19.46 on Wednesday. Global cues were equally supportive, while most of the Asian markets closed with handsome gains; the European markets too got a green start after the Greek lawmakers passed an austerity bill that brought the country closer to getting a financial aid it needs to avoid defaulting on its debt. In European France's CAC 40 up 0.23%, Germany's DAX up 0.03% and FTSE 100 up 0.63%. India's food inflation after soaring to its two and half month's high level in the last week has fallen to 7.78 % on annual basis for the week ended June 18. According to the official data, prices of vegetables, pulses and potatoes went down y-o-y in the week under review by 10%, 9.5% and 2.39% respectively. The latest fall in food inflation numbers almost by 1.35% is likely to come as a relief to the government, which had to deal with a series of bad news during recent weeks on the economic front. However, prices of other food items remained high during the week.
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Commodity
Crude (US$/bl)

%Chg
111.8 1501.2 -0.57 -0.78

Gold (US$/oz) Top 5 Movers JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK JINDALSTEL CAIRN HINDUNILVR

Close Price
80.9 480 647.15 312.65 340.75

%Chg
3.85 3.36 2.51 2.49 2.39

Top 5 Loser
SESAGOA BHARTIARTL ONGC MARUTI ACC

Close Price
282.25 393.4 274.2 1156 950.6

%Chg
-2.67 -2.01 -1.84 -1.78 -1.56

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MARKET OUTLOOK- CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC

TODAY'S MARKET LEVELS

Index
SENSEX NIFTY

Support 2
18660 5560

Support 1
18750 5605

Previous Close
18846 5647

Resistance 1
18935 5690

Resistance 2
19050 5735

Trend
Rangebound Rangebound

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS: Earlier the start of the domestic markets was on a positive note tracking the gains in the overnight US markets and the positive start of the Asian peers, but after the initial spurt some profit booking appeared and the markets pared their gains however, there was no selling pressure that kept the markets firm. Though, the blue chips were holding their gains the broader indices showed some weakness in early trade but once the trade stabilized they too surged adding over half a percent for the day. The market breadth on the BSE ended positive; advances and declining stocks were in a ratio of 1460:1358 while 170 scrips remained unchanged. India VIX, a gauge for market's short term expectation of volatility lost 5.4% at 18.41 from its previous close of 19.46 on Wednesday.
FAVORED SCENARIO: Remember we have said that any bounce back from current level may reap indices towards 5400-5430 where we might see some sort of consolidation. Exactly to our expectation spot index rallied from last two session and closed above 5500 in the last session though we feel it's merely a technical bounce back on the basis of short covering. For the upcoming week we believe 5650-5670 could be the key resistance zone where we might see some sort of consolidation. Any closing above 5670 with decent volumes may boost the traders sentiment however 5830 could be the barrier for any northward journey. VARIED SCENARIO: On the flip side any negative outcome may tank indices towards 5330-5350 where we might see some sort of support. Any break down below this further detonate the environment however 5150-5160 could be very important to watch. HAPPY TRADING....

Index
BANK NIFTY

Support 2
10980

Support 1
11115

Previous Close
11245

Resistance 1
11375

Resistance 2
11510

Trend
Rangebound
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INTRA DAY TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

Scrip
FARMAXIND

CMP
4.15

Buy Near
4.1

Stop Loss
3.9

Target 1
7.3

Target 2
4.5

Trend
Rangebound

Scrip
SHILPI

CMP
17.15

Buy Near
17

Stop Loss
16.5

Target 1
17.5

Target 2
18

Trend
Rangebound

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

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Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd

Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com Website: www.moneysukh.com

SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 /

NSE: INB230781431 PMS Regn No. INP000002387

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INTRA DAY TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

Scrip
SUMEETINDS

CMP
39.8

Buy Near
39

Stop Loss
38

Target 1
40

Target 2
41

Trend
Rangebound

Scrip
ARROWTEX

CMP
12.85

Sell Near
13.5

Stop Loss
14

Target 1
13

Target 2
12.5

Trend
Rangebound
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Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd

Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com Website: www.moneysukh.com

SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 /

NSE: INB230781431 PMS Regn No. INP000002387

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NAME
Varun Gupta Pashupati Nath Jha Vikram Singh

DESIGNATION
Head - Research Research Analyst Research Analyst

E-MAIL
varungupta@moneysukh.com pashupatinathjha@moneysukh.com vikram_research@moneysukh.com

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Additional Information with respect to the securities referred in our derivative calls is uploaded on our website. Please note that our technical calls are totally independent of our fundamental calls. Technical Trends calls are based on momentum, Investors/Traders are requested to observe following discipline to take maximum advantage of the products. -Entry/exit will be on the basis of price or time priority -Use strict stop loss at 15% from your average acquisition price This report is prepared for the exclusive use of Mansukh Group clients only and should not be reproduced, recirculated, published in any media, website or otherwise, in any form or manner, in part or as a whole, without the express consent in writing of Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd. Any unauthorized use, disclosure or public dissemination of information contained herein is prohibited. This data sheet is for private circulation only and the said document does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above, we claim no responsibility for its accuracy. We shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof and the investors are requested to use the information contained herein at their own risk.

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

For Private circulation Only

For Our Clients Only

Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd

Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com Website: www.moneysukh.com

SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 /

NSE: INB230781431 PMS Regn No. INP000002387