Regional Fund Flows

& NVDR Analysis of SET50

Local Institutions Strategist Team

KELIVE Research Department
Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) PLC
22 August 2011
No. 33/11
Presented by
Mayuree Chowvikran, CISA
Padon Vannarat
Chaiyachoke Suwisuttangkul
Chatchai Jindarat

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS


 
 

   !"#$" % 




Top Buys : %!/ / 122 / % $

Top Sells : / /  / 6%7% / %

    8 NVDR 

Top Buys
I NTUCH
CPN

Close
% wow Top Sells
38.25 -2.6% BANPU

Close
% wow
658.00 -2.4%

35.25

0.0%

DTAC

66.00

-2.2%

KBANK

131.00

1.6%

CPALL

50.50

6.3%

SCB

117.00

-0.4%

PTTEP

161.00

0.6%

CPF

31.75

0.0%

I VL

40.25

0.0%

/==> %!





KBANK A /
%B 
/C !
/7D    / = 
E F8 =GD 
%D 6
   .!I
%D
PSL A BDI 
GD6B% 8  
D$% B
 
 !6
TISCO A /F8!$
 /   7D1PQ6 "=
R % D = 3Q54 == 6
 
7DR = W
!$

Thailand Equity Research

 /=!

BBL

PTT

AMATA

SET INDEX

Source: Bloomberg
Thailand Equity Research

8
= /=!

/=: BBL, PTT = AMATA

/ AMATA 
GD 2.1% ! $$$  
8
 AMATA !
2H54 6 /
F 
 backlog % #==6/$   % $
 $   % #!
# c%/ BBL = PTT 
GD!/% 
%
+0.6% wow = +1.0% wow $
 8!/8
=h%  /=  #%
+1.2% wow Outperform SET INDEX %
GDI% 0.7% !
Stock

Close

% wow

BBL

159.00

0.6%

PTT

318.00

1.0%

14.70

2.1%

AMATA

1.2%

Average Return
SET Return

Thailand Equity Research

1,069.20

0.7%

   !"#$"  % 

+US$34m/ -US$5.1bn

**-US$5.2bn/ +US$31.4bn

-US$1.2bn/ -US$8.1bn
**-US$136m/ +US$775m
+US$11m/ +US$567m
+US$1m/ +US$142m
-US$234m/ +US$25m
* WTD YTD
** 12 ..2554

-US$199m / +US$1.9bn

17 .. 2554
Source: Bloomberg
Thailand Equity Research

   !"#$" % 

Unit: US$mn
Country

Ended Aug 19

Ended Aug 12

Ended Aug 5

2011 YTD

2010

India*

-136.31

-605.05

-196.57

774.51

29,320.84

Indonesia

-199.23

-388.73

-163.58

1,936.08

2,344.85

N/A

-5,232.38

-4,970.04

31,398.20

22,925.90

Philippines

11.08

-107.17

-2.15

567.10

1,231.60

South Korea

33.89

-2,908.55

-1,767.75

-5,087.40

19,656.55

-1,238.84

-4,408.16

-1,332.84

-8,119.23

9,577.22

Thailand

-233.84

-619.25

80.42

25.38

1,919.33

Vietnam

1.31

1.74

-11.56

142.00

617.21

Japan

Taiwan

*India, updated 18 August 2011

Source: Bloomberg


    
 6   !"!  !# "$!$%&'#  MS
*"+ GDP #/ 0/  *1 + 02+3 #
440  !"4"  
 3 
5

!#  63  MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan *! 

 4  -2.2% wow 
**   
 -3.9% wow
  ! 3*! "  -3.9% wow  -2.7% wow "N* """*3   "O
  
Dell *"+$3 / 0 "5! ! *
1Q  ! *  Apple
Thailand Equity Research

WORLD MARKETS
Aug 19
DJIA

WTD (%)

YTD (%)

MARKET PER
2011
2012
10.90
9.75

EPS Growth
2011
2012
12.8%
12.6%

DIVIDEND YIELD
2011
2012
2.92%
3.14%

10,817.65

-4.0%

-6.6%

Nasdaq

2,341.84

-6.6%

-11.7%

13.99

11.66

111.1%

20.0%

1.23%

1.30%

NIKKEI

8,719.24

-2.7%

-14.8%

14.42

12.48

9.5%

14.9%

2.17%

2.19%

19,399.92

-1.1%

-15.8%

10.38

9.17

0.5%

13.2%

3.90%

4.37%

Shanghai Composite

2,534.36

-2.3%

-9.7%

11.64

9.71

25.4%

19.5%

2.55%

2.90%

Straits Times

2,733.63

-4.1%

-14.3%

12.62

11.52

-23.6%

9.6%

3.52%

3.82%

KOSPI

1,744.88

-2.7%

-14.9%

8.71

7.61

21.8%

24.6%

1.73%

1.84%

PSE

4,339.90

0.4%

3.3%

14.16

12.54

-1.4%

12.9%

3.00%

3.03%

Jakarta Composite

3,842.75

-1.2%

3.8%

15.20

12.66

28.0%

19.9%

2.18%

2.63%

KL Composite

1,483.98

0.0%

-2.3%

14.53

12.71

11.7%

14.2%

3.88%

4.22%

16,141.67

-4.1%

-21.3%

13.42

11.47

6.0%

17.0%

1.73%

1.96%

7,342.96

-3.9%

-18.2%

12.90

10.68

-4.1%

20.5%

4.41%

4.81%

413.12

-2.2%

-13.7%

0.7%

3.5%

12.10

10.61

17.3%

14.2%

3.86%

4.30%

HSKI

BSE SENSEX
TAIEX
MSCI Asia Pac Ex Japan
SET

1,069.20

Source: Bloomberg

Thailand Equity Research

/=

=> %!

Thailand Equity Research

KBANK

KBANK B/ Top Buy 8 NVDR # B
3 ! (  INTUCH =
CPN 7G   Big Lot) /$$$  
   !/ KBANK
/$
B$% Outperform //!%D > 
GD

%D 6
 % 25bps #
3.5%   .!I
%D $RG E  F8
 !>C %D

8  KBANK !  G t uv       /% 
 D /   /
$% $=
 6 
t 2554 
6 40%
t/=
6 % 20% 
t 2555
c%6  K-Transformation   / 
  /
$% $=

 !/$%$6$GD =/6  /8I/# =/  D
 ROE  KBANK   
GD    15.7% !t 53 B 19.3% !t%D
= 20.1% !t/
 D Kim Eng  = "7D" KBANK {$ % 165
 6  KBANK $%
E F8!  G t=% 0.75
 =F8D t% 3.50


Thailand Equity Research

PSL

=     !/ PSL    $% ! 6 NVDR


$BuF| 7D
/ PSL =
B7D
BD % 4 !
5 
/  /
Momentum  
!  D   %  (BDI) 
GD
6B% 8 % 48  #
1,462  =   R=
/} % %D D$%
W B
   /
 
uv   PSL  8t/# RG 1.9 I/
 I$GD 102% yoy =$/
  #!
 =W  %!~GD
50%  21  c Dt 2553
B 30  =/ $D%# GD  / 300 bps 7G B8$=8  
 20.6 t!t 2551 I% 13.2 t!t 2555 BF 

6%~
$ != c"I I  uv  $  PSL $% %% 6 $% h% I% 15.4 t
 8!/$%/ c%
$ Handysize >$R outperform !
F
/
!/W  PSL $%"I # $%%D =  $%=8   %  7G
 %  %DF ~
6 !t 2555 =$/   $1PQ>$
= PSL >/~~  =/ 58%!t 2554
 D Kim Eng  = "7D " PSL 6 $%$$!t 2555 % 28.07
/
7G / P/BV % 1.5  7G $% 12%  P/BV h%  PSL !  $%

Thailand Equity Research

10

TISCO

NVDR 
$7D

/ TISCO D =!
4  B$# 48 /
 /
$$$  
$GD  !/ TISCO
uv  $6!GD
%D 6
 
. !  % t$%$B
//  ~~cE}W6%  $$ $ NIM  TISCO !/
=/ =$
%GDD = 4Q54 B/
%D 6
 
7DR = W
 !$8 "}% B

/ 7D  TISCO /  
uv  c!
D /!  G t TISCO    }
W

$/#  850 /
 6        6 6  
   7D   "=R  ! / %  
/  # "  !    3Q54 B  /  
%D  TISCO /7>~~B8#/$ #/!/
Ford !/ 6 8
R = !$ 7G   8
6  "
 (Corporate Loans) 6 $uv
   $c
!t%D% 3.4 I/
 
6 19% t 53
TISCO  B/F8!$
 6 c 
 !/ Dividend yield !

# RG 7.1% !t 2554 = 8.4% !t 2555 # %!$
Ic 
 D   
 = 7D" TISCO 6 $%{$  IDW% 43.5
 / c
F
!/ Upside 13%

Thailand Equity Research

11

    8

NVDR  (15 A 19 ..2554)

Thailand Equity Research

12

/ Top Buy 8 NVDR #  10 
=

(Unit: Million Baht)
Rank

Stock

Foreign Net Position

ending 19 Aug

ending 11 Aug

NVDR Outstanding
2011

19-Aug

11-Aug

Chg YTD

CPN

1,609.99

-17.70

1,502.00

2.69%

2.72%

-1.53%

KBANK

1,350.15

-1,995.00

6,046.81

25.70%

26.21%

0.94%

SCB

1,344.35

-54.13

6,216.43

4.27%

4.24%

0.03%

CPF

725.65

203.76

5,451.01

5.15%

4.96%

0.04%

KTB

641.90

-38.65

5,198.66

4.94%

4.54%

0.52%

AP

228.65

123.64

560.72

10.23%

10.32%

-0.90%

SCC

205.08

-1,328.73

1,458.04

11.34%

11.59%

0.10%

BBL

139.79

-2,189.20

-816.00

24.08%

24.93%

-0.67%

BEC

138.53

-66.31

815.00

3.85%

3.79%

0.33%

10

AMATA

124.38

21.45

496.90

5.65%

5.27%

0.74%

Source: NVDR, SETSMART **SET50**


  *$R40" 2 $ 3S   KBANK, SCB, KTB  BBL  " 3   
ON %$Z0 *0 #*$ .3 ! 52 0  63 SETBANK +1.0% Outperform SET
 +0.7% wow
NVDR R40
2 AP  
 4   """*!  !# "6*3 2H54  Backlog

$O ON " *  jk $'*3"  63 AP !$Z0 1Z 9.6% wow
Thailand Equity Research

13

Weekly NVDR Trading Top Buys

NVDR Outstanding - Top 10 Net Buy Stocks
28%

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

end of 2010

As of Aug 11

As of Aug 19

24%

20%

16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

CPN

KBANK

SCB

CPF

KTB

AP

SCC

BBL

BEC

AMATA

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

14

/ Top Sell 8 NVDR #  10 
=

(Unit: Million Baht)
Rank

Stock

Foreign Net Position

ending 19 Aug

ending 11 Aug

-1,395.87

NVDR Outstanding
2011

19-Aug

11-Aug

Chg YTD

-1,343.67

-6,543.32

13.67%

14.75%

-7.64%

BANPU

DTAC

-511.17

197.41

-789.79

9.75%

10.05%

-0.31%

CPALL

-321.96

-409.86

-107.48

3.73%

4.01%

-0.41%

PTTEP

-320.09

-103.20

3,693.59

1.97%

2.01%

0.18%

IVL

-210.46

-309.38

1,398.23

2.26%

2.35%

0.76%

TOP

-206.88

-104.71

6,869.88

5.64%

5.69%

1.18%

BLA

-164.56

-237.33

-181.58

5.24%

5.67%

0.27%

PTT

-162.75

-382.53

9,260.34

3.15%

3.22%

0.14%

THAI

-160.61

-69.17

-853.46

2.86%

3.03%

-2.31%

10

LH

-101.95

-36.31

-3,007.34

19.45%

19.51%

-5.09%

Source: NVDR, SETSMART **SET50**

BANPU   Top Sell 6  NVDR Q3   !"! j!!$%&'# !$%&'
!#
 SS+* !   3 BANPU -2.4%  ! 14 6  NVDR m1.08% wow
NVDR  ! 14 CPALL  
 3    "Q $
2!" 1.1 5 *.   *$Z0 #
6.3% wow  !$
NN  63 ! 14 CPALL 6  NVDR *! 28bps wow
NVDR $
2 IVL  
 2 !"! j!%&'#!  63 ! 14 6  NVDR -9bps wow
Thailand Equity Research

15

Weekly NVDR Trading Top Sells

NVDR Outstanding - Top Net Sell Stocks
28%

end of 2010

As of Aug 11

As of Aug 19

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

24%

20%

16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

BANPU

DTAC

CPALL

PTTEP

IVL

TOP

BLA

PTT

THAI

LH

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

16

/ Top Buy / Top Sell 8 NVDR # !t 2554

Top Buy (Ytd)

Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Top Sell (Ytd)

Thailand Equity Research

Stock
PTT
PTTAR
TOP
SCB
BAY
KBANK
CPF
KTB
ADVANC
PTTEP

Rank

Stock

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

BANPU
LH
BH
THAI
BBL
DTAC
QH
TRUE
STEC
TPIPL

Foreign Net Position

2011
9,260.34
7,111.36
6,869.88
6,216.43
6,151.83
6,046.81
5,451.01
5,198.66
3,764.16
3,693.59

2010
17,369.30
4,165.01
5,075.40
8,119.15
9,656.80
13,959.93
6,189.90
7,482.70
7,119.14
7,022.92

Foreign Net Position

2011
-6,543.32
-3,007.34
-876.52
-853.46
-816.00
-789.79
-626.22
-562.76
-361.79
-210.28

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

2010
2,903.93
2,642.94
289.07
3,448.72
3,287.17
3,953.49
1,452.23
-795.23
746.37
341.30

NVDR Outstanding
19-Aug
3.15%
6.69%
5.64%
4.27%
16.29%
25.70%
5.15%
4.94%
3.79%
1.97%

11-Aug
3.22%
6.96%
5.69%
4.24%
16.44%
26.21%
4.96%
4.54%
3.81%
2.01%

Chg YTD
0.14%
2.68%
1.18%
0.03%
0.83%
0.94%
0.04%
0.52%
0.91%
0.18%

NVDR Outstanding
19-Aug
13.67%
19.45%
10.49%
2.86%
24.08%
9.75%
3.96%
1.80%
6.43%
2.21%

11-Aug
14.75%
19.51%
10.59%
3.03%
24.93%
10.05%
4.18%
1.80%
6.23%
2.33%

Chg YTD
-7.64%
-5.09%
-0.50%
-2.31%
-0.67%
-0.31%
-4.80%
-1.01%
-4.85%
-1.07%

17

 NVDR  $

(Unit: Million Baht)
Weekly Net Buy/ Net Sell

Sector
ending Aug 19

ending Aug 11

ending Aug 5

YTD2011

ENERGY

-2,014.15

-2,168.60

1,013.01

24,733.61

BANK

3,537.25

-4,591.02

291.93

25,842.38

PROPERTY

1,857.34

-102.41

816.06

767.59

ICT

3,297.92

42.04

-266.27

7,111.43

CONMAT

225.60

-1,313.94

-1,092.08

1,827.52

PETRO

-195.63

-567.77

569.98

2,842.49

SET

7,455.81

-9,097.37

1,125.51

73,589.09

Source: NVDR, SETSMART


  *"R40
2 
6  NVDR  "Q  7.5 5 *.3   (" !" Big Lot 
INTUCH  CPN R40
25 2.2 5 *.) 
**   
$
2 9.1 5 *.  631 R40
2 YTD 5"$Z0 Q
* 7.4 "4 *. # "
R40
2   2 k  !  "5 s#" tuv$
2
NVDR *"R40
2 2 03   N#   KBANK, SCB, KTB  BBL ON 
%$Z0 *0 #*$ 2
.3 ! 52 0  63 SETBANK +1.0% wow Outperform SET Index
 +0.7% wow
NVDR  ! 14  "5 s#"  4 
 2 6
*j!!$%&'#
 6
* 3  #jj+x
N3 SETENERGY  SETPETRO *! 0.2%  1.6% wow "N*
Thailand Equity Research

18

NVDR Trading Energy Sector

NVDR Outstanding - Energy & Petrochemical Sector
28%

end of 2010

As of Aug 11

As of Aug 19

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

24%

20%

16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

BANPU

PTT

PTTAR

PTTCH

PTTEP

TOP

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

19

NVDR Trading Banking Sector

NVDR Outstanding - Banking Sector
30%

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

end of 2010

As of Aug 11

As of Aug 19

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

BAY

BBL

KBANK

KTB

SCB

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

20

NVDR Trading Property Sector

NVDR Outstanding - Property Sector
30%

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

end of 2010

As of Aug 11

As of Aug 19

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

AP

LH

PS

QH

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

21

NVDR Trading Contractors

NVDR Outstanding - Contractors
12%

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

end of 2010

As of Aug 11

As of Aug 19

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

CK

ITD

STEC

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

22

NVDR Trading ICT

NVDR Outstanding - ICT
16%

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

end of 2010

As of Aug 11

As of Aug 19

12%

8%

4%

0%

ADVANC

DTAC

TRUE

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

23

DISCLAIMER

$h

%D GD6 %$ 
  " !/
uv  
 !E (KELIVE RESEARCH) D %D
 !h

%DB$>  
%/$$
  
/ F IDW A  $/ - F
=/$%GD c cDC 7G $%$>%= / 


/F IDW =/  / !/$>
 
$h

%DBI%   1  7G $%$>%

= / 

/F IDW%$ !"I

   12 / /  D G B ~%  / 
=$/!RG >
!   
h

%D
Thailand Equity Research

24