Professional Documents
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Report
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REF: 040608
Contents
Page 3
Preface
Page 4
Meeting Overview
Page 10
Scenarios Series
Page 18
The WorkSpace
Page 20
Acknowledgements
Since the World Economic Forum on the Middle East last Finally, demographics – a silent but unstoppable force in
met in Jordan 12 months ago, the Middle East has the region – will transform Arab societies in the next two
continued to be at the epicentre of global current affairs. decades. 60% of the population is under 30 years of age,
The Annapolis conference, the US “surge” in Iraq and the placing enormous strains on health and education. Leaders
deadlock in Lebanon all made regular headlines. But this in the region need a clear vision of how societies will evolve
year developments in business and economics arguably in the future so that the right steps can be taken.
had an equally strong impact around the world. The Gulf
helped to fill a liquidity gap created by the credit crunch, All of the above points to a need to take a long view even
massive investment projects were launched, the dollar’s when current crises demand our attention. Scenarios are a
slide put pressure on currency pegs, and inflation and tool to help us to do just that and, in Sharm El Sheikh, they
rising food prices caused concern across the region. were integrated for the first time into the programme of a
World Economic Forum meeting. The Scenarios Series
This year’s programme addressed these current issues, examined the impact of three global scenarios to 2025: the
while also refocusing attention on the long-term trends and Hyperlinked World, the Sustainable World and the
opportunities that lie ahead. The theme “Learning from the Multipolar World. Participants immersed themselves in
Future” reflected our contention that by considering how these worlds, using the fresh perspective they provided to
the world may evolve in 15-20 years time we can draw examine the impact of long-term trends on current policy
important lessons for today. The combination of economic, priorities.
political and social factors at play in the Middle East makes
this year a particularly fitting time for such an exercise. The report outlines the main themes of the meeting and
offers a taste of the discussions in Sharm El Sheikh. The
First, the oil windfall for the GCC may reach an estimated first section is an overview of the sessions on this year’s
US$ 9 trillion by 2020, assuming the oil price averages regional agenda. The second paints a picture of the three
over US$ 100 a barrel in this period. How this vast wealth scenarios, drawing on the insights and ideas developed in
will be spent is a question not just for today’s leaders, but the Scenarios Series. The final section covers sessions in
also for future generations. As the region invests, it needs the WorkSpace, an incubator of innovative solutions and a
to avoid short-termism and think ahead to account for focus of creative thinking for the Forum’s diverse
emerging long-term global trends if it is to make the most participants.
of the opportunities on offer.
The World Economic Forum would like to thank the Co-
Second, on the political front, the last few years have seen Chairs of the meeting: Khalid Abdulla-Janahi, Chairman of
a major shift in the political map of the region, not least the Executive Committee, Shamil Bank of Bahrain;
through the regime change in Iraq and the rising influence Mohammed Alshaya, Chairman, Alshaya Group; H.R.H.
of Iran. These and other changes have complicated the The Duke of York, UK Special Representative for
picture, with a web that overlaps alliances, loyalties and International Trade and Investment; Yuriko Koike, Member
issues making it difficult to separate the different issues. As of the House of Representatives, National Diet of Japan;
we await a change in the US presidency, a reassessment Paul Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer, TransFair;
of strategies for peace and stability in the region seems to and Jimmy Wales, Founder and Chair Emeritus, Wikia.
be in order.
Sherif El Diwany Daniel Davies
Director, Associate Director,
Head of Middle East Middle East
Shed the politics of resentment, the paternalistic Many rejected Bush’s proposals, but few could object
patterns of rule, participants urged, and convert the to his message. “We are very rich in this part of the
region’s vast oil wealth into skilled human capital that world, but at the micro level we’re very poor – in terms
can stimulate creativity and innovation, transforming of technology, innovation, creating social welfare and
the region’s disparities into entrepreneurial opportunity. entrepreneurship,” said Khalid Abdulla-Janahi,
“The Middle East craves peace, stability and Chairman of Bahrain’s Ithmaar Bank and one of the
development,” said Egyptian President Muhammad co-chairs of the meeting.
Hosni Mubarak. “It has the strategic, natural and
human resources to realize it.” Rich, there is no question. The aggregate numbers
across the Middle East point to what one participant
It was a sentiment echoed by US President George called an oil-fuelled Arab Renaissance, with 6%
W. Bush in an address on the meeting’s opening day. average regional economic growth. As oil crests at
“This region is home to energetic people, a powerful US$ 135 a barrel, the Gulf is pulling in more than
spirit of enterprise, and tremendous resources,” he US$ 400 billion a year in oil revenues, providing a
Some of the main political issues were analysed from their economic
flip side – take the roadblocks and other restrictions on the mobility of
people and vehicles. “In economic and business terms, the siege
means higher transportation and distribution costs,” he said. “In
business terms, you cannot be competitive.”
The funds themselves might disagree, however. They Despite the oil money flooding into sovereign wealth
have sought to mollify critics in the West by saying funds, roughly 24% of the region’s population still lives
they are strictly profit-driven and have no strategic on less than US$ 2 a day. High birth rates have
objective other than to maximize profits. But just as created a demographic bulge that will create as many
they face criticism in the West, so voices closer to as 100 million new jobseekers in the Middle East in
home are saying that the funds ought to take a more the next 10-15 years. “When we think of the Middle
proactive role in funding development in the Middle East and the tremendous oil revenues we tend to
East. forget that this reality exists in the Middle East as
well,” said co-chair Paul Rice, President and Chief
Executive Officer of TransFair.
Indeed, participants agreed that political strife poses other hand, Palestinian leaders need to be able to
the biggest threat to regional stability, particularly the prevent militant attacks against Israel. “Israel has a
war in Iraq, strife in Lebanon and the 60-year-old right to live in peace,” said US Congressman Brian
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some said a resolution of Baird.
the Palestinian question remains a prerequisite to
regional peace and prosperity. A young Saudi
summed up the sense of frustration: “Everyone shares
a sense that it is not going anywhere. Our lives have
been dominated by this conflict.”
Though politics occupy centre stage in microfinance and the adoption of Basel II
Pakistan at the moment, the economy has not standards in the financial sector. To address
been forgotten. Indeed the resilience of the the commodities crisis, rising prices and food
economy can be traced largely to the shortages, agriculture will receive special
consistency of policies even as governments attention. “Agriculture is the backbone of our
have come and gone amid the political country,” said the prime minister.
turmoil. Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani, Prime
Minister of Pakistan, promises more of the Continued economic progress will hinge
same: “There will be no paradigm shift.” largely on the partnerships that Pakistan has
forged with the international community. In the
Looking at the numbers cited by Gillani, no prime minister’s view, the country is well-
paradigm shift seems necessary. Pakistan is placed geographically to serve as a
projecting record 6% growth this fiscal year. “bridgehead for cooperation” in the region,
Much of this success can be traced to including for China. “We are ready to reap the
reforms like deregulation and privatization. economic benefits of our strategic location,”
Many state-owned enterprises have been sold he said.
in discount initial public offerings (IPOs)
designed to spread ownership widely among “A new and democratic Pakistan will have a
citizens. bright future. Pakistan is now ready for
business,” Gillani declared. “I am sure we can
Continuing in that reformist vein, Gillani plans deliver this with the help of our friends across
to include a new energy policy, incentives for the world.”
Prospects for peace almost seemed more attainable Many participants said that it is critical to look beyond
in Iraq, as participants heard from Iraqi officials how the obstacles in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and the
the country had taken great strides towards relative perceptions among some that a clash of civilizations is
normality. Al Qaeda, though still a threat, has been brewing in the Middle East. Investors, they argued,
pushed out of the cities and Iraq’s own security forces should concentrate on the promise that these conflicts
are in control of most of the country. Less certain is
how US presidential elections might affect America’s
commitment to Iraq and regional stability. While neither
Democrats nor Republicans are likely to pull out of
Iraq entirely, it seemed certain that the US, in
response to public fatigue with the war, will reduce its
presence in the country after elections.
President Nursultan A. Nazarbayev welcomed Perhaps those factors help explain the US$ 10
participants to a special Kazakhstan Evening on billion deal that Gulf Finance House, an
18 May to herald the country’s growing economic investment bank, signed with Kazakhstan to
and political ties with the Middle East. “Everybody develop the Caspian Energy Hub, a commercial
understands the political importance of the Middle and technical centre for the oil and gas industry
East,” said Marat Tazhin, Minister of Foreign designed to attract companies from Kazakhstan
Affairs of Kazakhstan. “Because we are part of the and neighbouring countries. “It is an attractive
Muslim world, there are also historical, cultural place for oil and gas companies from the Caspian
and human dimensions.” region to put their headquarters,” said Esam
Janahi, Chairman, Gulf Finance House, Bahrain,
Middle Eastern investors are likely to feel as if they and Young Global Leader.
are walking on familiar ground in Kazakhstan,
argued Vahan Zanoyan, Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer, PFC Energy International,
Switzerland. Kazakhstan’s stage of economic
development is similar to that of many of the
region’s countries 15-18 years ago, he noted. In
his opinion, that, along with cultural familiarity,
increases the comfort level there for Middle
Eastern investors.
and post-conflict zones hold for the future. “Arab working for a company that is environmentally
states, especially oil-rich nations, must seize this unfriendly,” said Fadi Ghandour, Founder and Chief
opportunity to invest aggressively in the Palestinian Executive Officer of Jordan’s Aramex International.
people,” urged US President Bush. “The Arab world
needs to get its act together and embrace Iraq,” said Technology has of course become a major catalyst for
Iraq Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih. change. Though only 2% of people in the Middle East
have access to the Internet, the rapid spread of
Most of all, though, participants were adamant that cellular phones and satellite television has connected
governments need to step back and give way to a the Arab world to the global economy in ways that
more democratic, free market form that draws on the cannot be reversed. “We do not hear much from
ingenuity and self-reliance of their citizens. everyday people; the Internet can change that,” said
“Government has to shrink. It’s too fat. They have to Jimmy Wales, Founder and Chair Emeritus of Wikia, a
let go, they have to privatize, they have to allow Young Global Leader and a co-chair. “It is going to
entrepreneurship,” said co-chair Mohammed Alshaya, change a lot of the political dynamics.”
Executive Chairman of Alshaya Group in Kuwait.
While technology is transcending borders,
This is not just any entrepreneurship, but one that governments need to help break them down,
uses market-based approaches to solving social and participants said, by lowering barriers to free trade
environmental problems – social entrepreneurship. and investment and working towards a common
“The challenge for us now is to look at new models market of 18 nations bound by language and culture.
that can address poverty and hunger, and Only by doing so, they warned, would big investors
marginalization and environmental degradation,” said such as sovereign wealth funds find it worthwhile to
Paul Rice. “We need a bottom-up approach.” sink more assets into the region. “It is high time to
break down these barriers,” said Yasser El Mallawany,
Precedent lies in Islam, with its emphasis on zakat, or Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Egypt’s EFG-
charity, and Islamic finance also emphasizes sharing Hermes Holding. “If we don’t do that, a lot of
risks. Modern day sensibilities, too, are forcing resources of oil wealth will go again to the West and
companies to be more attuned with the needs of their not be invested regionally.”
communities. “The new generation is not interested in
In a lively session of questions and answers, Tzipi are trying to reduce the pressure and frustration
Livni, Vice-Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign on both sides. We are determined to continue the
Affairs of Israel, painted a cautiously optimistic negotiations. It would be understandable to not
picture of successful negotiations that would lead negotiate on the days of funerals [of people killed
to the establishment of a Palestinian state. in the ongoing violence], but I have decided to
continue. I expect the Palestinians and the Arab
Livni reminded participants that the original 1947 world to do the same.”
United Nations partition plan was supposed to
lead to the creation of two states. “This is Livni gave no specifics on the timing of an accord.
important to say,” she said. “Sometimes there is a “If it takes more time, it takes more time,” she
perception that the creation of Israel led to the said. “We need to build on basic pillars.” She
conflict, but the idea was to end the conflict by added that a specific timeline could lead to high
creating two states” in 1947. expectations and frustration should things not
move as quickly as planned.
“I know that I represent the thinking of the vast
majority of Israelis, not just my party, and not just “The peace process has to reach an
my government, who believe that the creation of a understanding – not just a slogan,” she noted.
Palestinian state is needed not only because of “We need to make it concrete. It is not enough to
pressure from the international community but come to an agreement that is vague and that
because it is in our own interest,” she said. “We cannot be implemented.”
In more than 10 sessions at the 2008 World Of the scenarios, participants regarded the
Economic Forum on the Middle East in Sharm El Sustainable World as the most challenging probably
Sheikh, Egypt, over 1,500 business, government and because it is the one
civil society leaders from 60 countries considered that is based most on “We need to ensure we
three scenarios for the world in 2025 – the hope. Even with a 17-
have pragmatic answers,
Hyperlinked World, the Sustainable World and the year time horizon, to
Multipolar World. These are based on views of how achieve the level of and no government in the
the global economic, political, social and technological sustainable practice region today can afford to
environments may develop. They take into account outlined in this scenario not have a plan for its
trends that are already playing out today. These are would require future.”
not forecasts but instead are plausible and challenging immediate concerted
futures that could become action and considerable collaboration among
reality as different business, government and civil society stakeholders in
“Think beyond the
assumptions and the region and across the world.
unthinkable.” uncertainties unfold.
In the Hyperlinked World, meanwhile, participants
Each scenario raises critical issues for the Middle East regarded as unstoppable how technology is driving
and all its people that must be addressed if they are the greater interconnectedness and openness of the
to prosper in 2025. Among the key questions posed: world. With respect to the Multipolar World, they
How will governments react to the increasing accepted as inevitable the rise in economic stature
empowerment and activism of civil society? How will and geopolitical clout of China, India and other Asian
power shift as a result? How can businesses balance countries. In all three scenarios, civil society is bound
profitability and sustainability? What position will the to erode the strength of the state. That is certainly a
Middle East, given its energy resources and financial global trend that is already evident today.
wealth, carve out for itself in a world with multiple
centres of geopolitical and economic power? By The opposite page summarizes the main elements of
tackling these questions of tomorrow, participants the three scenarios. These are then expanded in the
aimed to “learn from the future” – to determine what subsequent pages as stories that incorporate the
can and should be done now to find new approaches main ideas and insights generated during the
and solutions to even the most intractable global Scenarios Series.
challenges.
In 2025, during the World Economic Forum’s Virtual Annual Meeting, participants gathered in the digital Congress Hall for a
plenary session featuring five new leaders from government, business and civil society in the Middle East to discuss how in
nearly two decades the region had become a showcase for integration, collaboration and openness in the world.
One leader recalled how in late 2008 participants at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East in Sharm El Sheikh
formed the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) Education Consortium to promote public-private partnerships (PPPs) to
improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the region’s education systems. The aim was to ensure that the key competitive
advantage of the region – its youthful demographics – was not wasted. The windfall from high
“The Almighty created oil prices enabled the resource-rich countries to pour investment into upgrading education
different societies so we facilities, creating a wide range of new skills development centres to endow young people
with the capabilities to succeed in a global marketplace.
can learn and interact with
each other.”
Because of the shortage of expert trainers, virtual classrooms, other means of remote
learning and job-experience programmes for students swiftly became important ways to
upgrade skills. When combined with state-of-the-art telecom infrastructure, an expanded common market and the greater
demand for skilled personnel, it did not take long for the region to become highly interconnected, particularly as dramatic
increases in Internet penetration spurred the flow of information and the ability of people to communicate with little fear of
censorship.
Later in the discussion, another panellist noted that a significant challenge emerged when employers realized that, in a highly
mobile world, what was needed to develop human resources and attract talent to the region was not necessarily sufficient to
retain skilled people. Given the massive global demand for skills and increased opportunities for the expanding ranks of
virtual workers, the cost of talent on online human resources auctions skyrocketed. As “Incredible India” had done more than
a decade earlier, Middle East businesses soon understood the importance of the brand.
“A lot of people hear about the
Governments and regulators across the region worked to establish investment climates extremes in the Middle East, but
conducive to entrepreneurship and high-tech ventures through socially responsible
who we don’t hear from is
PPPs. Government coffers filled up with petrodollars and peace dividends, as well as
funds accumulated through the dramatic growth in Islamic financing. The region
ordinary people. The Internet
strengthened its position as the hub of Islamic banking. With liquidity rising in regional empowers ordinary people who
markets, the Gulf States became one of the first stops for entrepreneurs from around the can communicate to the world.”
world looking for alternative sources of funding for the “next big thing”.
Some on the panel conceded that interconnectedness is a double-edged sword. With the end to censorship thanks to
satellite and wireless networks, online content that was reflective, moderate and emphasized proper process became all the
more important. With media-on-demand, the decentralization of information enhanced the danger of personal agendas
taking precedence over constructive debate. With the gradual acceptance of what became
“Creativity needs an open known as “Islam 2.0”, the idea of ijma’a, or consensus building, was updated. More and
more people posted their views on blogs and social interaction websites, and projected their
environment to exist – the
interpretations of the Koran, stirring vigorous debate while underscoring the commonalities
sky is the limit.”
across the region.
Not all the changes wrought by technology enhanced the community spirit across the region. Access to instant
communications changed the way people spoke, altered reading patterns, and fundamentally shifted the role of the media
and the nature of content. While older generations lamented that people had become antisocial and society seemed to lack
a heart and soul, the key indicators for economic and social development told an entirely different story. In 2025, successful
businesses integrate workers from all age groups and backgrounds. Managing diversity in age, gender, ethnicity, background
and religion became a key success factor.
As the session wound down, it was clear that panellists generally agreed that the key to the region’s recent success was the
political and economic leadership, which wholeheartedly embraced change at a point when there was no stopping it.
Leaders were well aware that knowledge is king and those who possessed talent and information were bound to be resilient
in the face of multiple challenges. In the rapidly moving world of the last two decades, decision-makers understood that the
skills students learned at school would be obsolete even before they got their degree. As a result, critical thinking, decision-
making, initiative, ethics, social responsibility and learning skills have become the bedrock of the new curricula. It is a point of
pride for the region that students are now well equipped to develop on their own the skills required to succeed in the labour
market.
In his concluding remarks, Sayed, the newly elected President of Egypt, a former student activist and company CEO, stated:
“The key success factor for the Middle East was the leadership that embraced change and education which is critical to
preparing our younger generations for this Hyperlinked World. We empowered them and they thought for themselves. They
spoke up and finally we all listened and responded. We had to.”
It is May 2025. The World Economic Forum has convened its annual meeting in the Middle East for the first time in Masdar,
the zero-carbon, zero-waste, car-free city that Abu Dhabi launched in 2006. Since the World Economic Forum on the Middle
East in Sharm El Sheikh in 2012, the event has taken place only in green venues across the region as an acknowledgement
of the Kyoto II Protocol, which came into effect that year. Egypt had a head start. Following
“The time has come to the 2008 meeting, the Egyptian government announced that Red Sea resort on the edge of
stop debating the climate the Sinai Desert would be the country’s first green tourist destination.
In 2015, the Forum’s meeting held in Jerusalem, showcased the successful cooperative water management among Jordan,
Israel and Palestine along the Dead Sea, and other fruits of the successful conclusion of the Arab-Israeli Peace Accord a few
years back. Both government and corporate leaders were inspired to protect their new income-generating assets and
resources, now all too aware of the cost and negative impact of inaction on society,
the economy and the environment. “Peace and security are
prerequisites to introducing
Around this time, a number of countries began to focus on carefully developing
integrated water resources
adventure and cultural tourism. While they were criticized for starting slowly, some
governments granted licences only to those companies which met legislated management. We need also to
ecological and sustainability standards that reflected Kyoto II requirements. The change the real cost of services
region’s more enlightened tourism officials, operators and agents worried about the instead of water pricing. We need
impact of the increasing number of visitors on historic sites and nature preserves but to charge the cost of providing
were also concerned about missing out on the growing trend towards green tourism. water.”
This heightened the sense of urgency among policy-makers and put pressure on
them to select the right solutions.
As in many developing regions, the rise of mega-cities and the rapid rate of urbanization in the Middle East strained the
capacity of existing infrastructure and made achieving sustainability even tougher. The public had little choice but to accept
the real cost of water, carbon emissions, and food and energy security. Producers, suppliers and sellers were beginning to
embed in the entire value chain the market-driven prices of natural resources and the consequences of environmental
degradation. Major developers negotiated with governments and financial institutions to make adjustments in lending and
financing arrangements for the estimated 10% increase in cost for green development. Meeting these challenges created
new opportunities for local investment, many of them unforeseen. Savvy entrepreneurs seized the day.
“I knew that when I had the money to start a company, it would have to be a green enterprise,” said Soraya, a 33-year-old
Egyptian entrepreneur, during a session at the 2025 Masdar meeting. “I believed then that I could make big profits and still
do the right thing.” She recalled how as a teenager in Cairo she heard about the sustainability discussions at the 2008 World
Economic Forum on the Middle East from a friend who had been among the Arab youths invited to participate.
Soraya flew to Masdar from the Middle East’s first wholly sustainable airport in Muscut on one of the three solar-powered
planes in the fleet of eco-ME Airways, which she owns. In her session, she told participants how she turned failure into good
fortune after her first employer went bust. The bankruptcy resulted from the company misreading the social movement and
policies to embrace sustainability and launching a non-green version of a new resort despite opposition.
Suddenly unemployed, Soraya met an investor who shared her dream of creating a green venture. She presented her with
the concept of eco-ME, an environmentally responsible airline that would link green destinations with the major ecotourist
markets in the world. Five years ago, the airline started flying between Munich and Sharm El Sheikh, connecting Egypt’s
premier green resort with one of Europe’s most environmentally conscious countries. Later, the carrier began serving other
green destinations in the Middle East and Africa.
At the Masdar meeting, Soraya told a new generation of Arabs that the “You have to reduce the risk of
Sustainable World is reality. “Today, sustainability has to be part of everything we conflict in order for business flows
do,” she concluded. “The main ingredients for sustainability are the sense of to take place.”
urgency, proactive governance, accessible technology, educated consumers and,
certainly for the Middle East, the maintenance of peace and stability to allow for
regional collaboration. It will take time before we know we have reversed the problem of global warming and climate change.
And, with fossil fuel supplies running out, we have to continue developing alternative sources of energy and diversifying our
economies. Now that we have had relative peace for more than a decade, we are enjoying unprecedented growth in tourism.
Thanks to the new International Carbon Fund, we know the cost of carbon; we know the price of indifference. So now is the
time to go beyond green and I guarantee that you will tap a huge market that for so long nobody thought was there.”
It is 25 April 2025. China’s best known entrepreneur is undoubtedly Rui Anzhou, the 44-year-old founder of Tianjin-based DigiT,
makers of PalmTac, the hottest telecom product in the world – a tiny featherweight IT marvel that sits in the palm. The tiny device
is a mobile phone, laptop, PDA, USB drive and MP3 player rolled into one. On the back of brisk global sales, DigiT is one of the
fastest-growing companies in China and the world. Since the firm was listed on the Shanghai-Hong Kong Global Exchange in
2020, its stock price has doubled every year.
While investors have been attracted to Rui’s company for its killer product, what they really like is his business model. In 2008,
when Rui was a business undergraduate at Shanghai, a new business model discussed at a session in the World Economic
Forum on the Middle East inspired him. CHIMEA (for China, India, the Middle East
“An increasingly multipolar world and Africa) is a concept that combines China’s manufacturing prowess, India’s
offers clear advantages for competitive technological expertise, the strategically well positioned Middle East’s wealth and
companies from our region looking for energy supplies, and Africa’s natural resources.
growth opportunities beyond their
Only 20 years ago, Silicon Valley was the undisputed epicentre of innovation.
national borders. We recognize the Today, there are many such specialist centres driving new ideas and technologies,
huge potential for our local businesses while Washington DC and Brussels have given away to geopolitical dominance to
and as a government are actively multiple centres of gravity around the globe. CHIMEA could not have happened
looking ‘eastwards’.” without this shift in the technological, geopolitical and economic landscape.
Interestingly, China did not emerge as the hegemonic power or military threat that some experts at the turn of the millennium
feared. Predictions of the country’s superpower status were premature. The Asian giant has had to orchestrate enormous efforts
to enhance its ability to innovate, increase energy efficiency, expand capabilities in the logistics sector, and leverage information
technology and financial services to push up productivity. To be sure, China’s emergence resulted in a major reordering of
geopolitical power alignments. Yet, China’s immigration and emigration levels had consistently risen for years, providing the
Chinese with sufficient exposure to world-class standards and opportunities for middle management talent to learn global best
practices. The country still has not risen to the top of the global economic league table, ranked by size or competitiveness,
although that day may be closer.
By 2015, the 10 ASEAN nations had coalesced into a single liberalized market with a steady GDP growth rate in the range of 5%
to 7% per year. Intra-ASEAN trade ballooned. With a wealth of opportunities opening up for the new ASEAN community,
businesses had to become more flexible and dynamic to cope with fast-shifting patterns in demand. The region took advantage
of the desire among many investors and entrepreneurs not to put all their baskets in the China market. Some countries focused
on developing global niches in which they could excel. Malaysia, for example, solidified its position as the top Islamic financial
centre outside the Middle East, especially for issuing sharia-compliant sovereign and corporate bonds. It achieved this by
constantly raising transparency, disclosure and governance standards.
To thrive in this emerging Multipolar World, it was not sufficient for the Middle East to rely on a “All of us will not evolve in a
narrow base of energy and finance. The Middle East and the rest of Asia were natural partners. linear fashion. The patterns of
The Middle East had the energy resources to fuel Asia’s high growth, while Asia – China in competitive advantage will
particular – was an attractive market for investors from the Middle East. Investors from the
shift over time so business
Middle East proved to be active players in the energy sector as well as in infrastructure and
leisure. Meanwhile, Asian enterprises looked to the Middle East as a hub of operations in the and governments will need to
global production chain. Adding to the appeal of the complementary relationship was the fact adapt.”
that neither side wanted to impose values or interfere in the interests of the other.
With the CHIMEA model at the back of his mind, Rui capitalized on the changing geopolitical and economic landscape. He brought
together a team of Indian and Chinese engineers that produced a working prototype. He took that and his business proposal to a
business school classmate in Dubai who put him in touch with potential investors in the Gulf including the chief investment officer of
the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund. Within weeks, he had received the funding needed to launch the PalmTac from a consortium
of investors from China, Hong Kong and the Middle East.
DigiT had to decide where to source its raw materials and components for the new product and where to manufacture it. Rui looked
to Africa to provide some of the metals required in tiny amounts in each unit, while he went to Malaysia and the Philippines for some
of the microscopic components. Assembly would be in DigiT’s newest factory in China, about an hour outside Chengdu. By early
2018, the company was ready to start production, going to the market that summer.
“Business needs to Rui rolled out his new product in China first, followed by the rest of Asia and the Middle East. At
collaborate and compete at the end of 2018, the PalmTac was the best-selling electronic product across Asia. By 2019, Rui
had launched in Africa, with a big event in Johannesburg. DigiT distributors in North America and
the same time to survive in
Europe urged him to bring the PalmTac to their markets, but Rui told them that his manufacturing
a complex and ever-
facilities in China would have difficulty keeping up with demand once Africans could buy the
changing environment.” PalmTac. He was right.
In early 2025, Rui went to Abu Dhabi to meet shareholders. Asked to address a group of young entrepreneurs from across the
Middle East, Rui had this advice: “The key to success is to understand how the world is changing and to take advantage of those
changes. There are still geopolitical risks. As an adept entrepreneur in this Multipolar World, one needs to develop supply chains that
leverage the strength of each sourcing country. You need to be flexible to stay competitive and to meet demand in a crisis. Finally,
keep rethinking the role the Middle East can play in the global market. Stay diversified – and never be complacent. The world keeps
changing and you have to change with it.”
Unblocking the Supply Chain for Green The Best New Business Venture for the
Development Middle East
This WorkSpace identified the key obstructions to Participants in this WorkSpace explored different socially
creating greener supply chains for urban development. In entrepreneurial business models to understand how they
a series of small breakout groups, participants built their address societal needs. Featured social entrepreneurs
own supply chains focusing on the specific needs of, and showcased their businesses that addressed complex and
constraints and enablers in, the Middle East. Supply diverse topics such as fair trade, employment for
chains for a green building, desalination plant, solar park, disabled persons, sustainable development, and
urban waste recycling facility and public transport facility providing education and jobs training.
were mapped, compared and analysed to identify the
main bottlenecks. Small groups discussed nuances of the various business
models and then worked together to build their own
Key Outcomes venture ideas. They created business models to tackle
• Participants determined whether they can raise such issues as sustainable food production, the bottom
awareness of the interconnectivity and complexity in of the pyramid, renewable resources, access to water,
the supply chain. They can achieve true insights of investing in health, bridging the skills gap and
where the bottlenecks are and find ways to create a underutilized human resources.
greener supply chain.
Key Outcomes
• Pricing signals must be injected into the supply chain • One group suggested helping the environment and
for urban development so as to expose the true costs bridging the skills gap through the establishment of a
and allow consumers to make fully informed choices. green hotel, which would offer organic food, chemical-
free laundering, solar-generated energy, water recycling
• The current infrastructure is inadequate to encourage and eco-friendly building materials. It would create jobs
adoption of green technologies such as solar and build awareness in the community through
generated power, wind power and desalination. supporting and growing greener businesses and
training workers.
This session provided some remarkable insights
into the green supply chain interconnections, • One group addressed sustainable food production by
creating an agricultural franchise – SAND2FOOD. This
complexities and bottlenecks. Those insights will be
company woud be a “Pizza Hut” for farmers, providing
extremely valuable to the Forum’s ongoing them with a toolkit advising them on sustainable land
sustainable development workstreams and use, seeds, water conservation, packaging,
initiatives. transportation and labour standards.
– Ralph R. Peterson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer,
The green revolution passed by the Middle East.
CH2M Hill Companies, USA
There have been huge advances in agricultural
production that have not trickled down.
– Mariam Al Foudery, Vice-President, Corporate Social
20 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East Responsibility, Agility, Kuwait.
Building Peace, Breaking Taboos Scenarios Series Conclusion: What Can We
Learn from the Future?
Inspired by personal insights from Tony Blair, Middle East
Quartet Envoy, United Nations, this WorkSpace This WorkSpace was the culmination of the Scenario
addressed an issue essential to regional peace and Series. Participants looked at the various predicted future
stability: the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations and the worlds of 2025 – Hyperlinked, Sustainable and Multipolar
role of taboos in that process. Blair shared his – and thought about the strategic options, challenges
experiences from the Northern Ireland conflict and drew and choices that they must address today to achieve a
parallels to the current negotiations. Facilitated by Daniel positive future. Moderated by Nik Gowing, Main
Shapiro, participants divided into groups to tackle the Presenter, BBC World News, United Kingdom,
taboo topics that could impede progress - Jerusalem’s participants pinpointed the ups and downs to the future
status, the right of refugee return, holy sites, and the scenarios. They drew comparisons across the various
emotions surrounding the use of the words “Israel” and futures to see if similar challenges and opportunities
“Palestine”. The groups also projected forward to 2025 existed and to identify how to best capitalize on restricted
assuming peace had been achieved and described how resources.
they got there.
Key Outcomes
Key Outcomes • Sustainability must be brought to the top of the agenda
• Need to engage and involve those who were not at the in the Middle East. It is simply not the agenda of most
table to create ownership of a negotiated solution on regional businesses. Sustainability is viewed as an
both sides. How can we engage the people at the externalized cost rather than part of doing business.
fringe of the process? We must shift to taking a longer view on what growth
means. The view now is too short term. Growth must
• Defining the terms is a difficult task. What do we mean have sustainable focus.
by refugees? Who has left their “homes”, when? This
conflict has a long history and we must recognize each • Education will be key in a hyperlinked society not only
side’s valid desire for recognition of their positions. to raise awareness but to create a sense of cultural
and local identity.
The World Economic Forum recognizes the support of the following companies as Partners of the World
Economic Forum on the Middle East:
Børge Brende is Managing Director, Regional Agenda Teams, of the World Economic Forum.
Sherif El Diwany is Director, Head of Middle East, at the Forum. The World Economic Forum on
the Middle East was under his direct responsibility, with Daniel Davies, Associate Director,
Middle East, and Victor Willi, Manager, Middle East, responsible for Programme Development;
Denise Burnet, Director, Head of Events, and Meeting Coordinator; Tareq Bouchuiguir and Rim
Lemsyeh, Community Relations Managers, Middle East.
The report writers, Wayne Arnold, William Hinchberger and Alejandro Reyes, and Chiemi
Hayashi, Project Manager, Scenarios Series and Lena Hagelstein worked with Samantha Tonkin,
Senior Media Manager, to produce the report.
The World Economic Forum would like to express its appreciation to the summary writers for
their work at the meeting. Session summaries are available on the World Economic Forum
website (www.weforum.org).
Design and Layout: Kamal Kimaoui, Associate Director, Production and Design
Photographs: Shawn Baldwin, Pedro Costa Gomes, Norbert Schiller and Dana Smilie
The electronic version of this report allows access to a richer level of content from the meeting, including
photographs, session summaries and videos of selected sessions.
Other specific information on the World Economic Forum on the Middle East, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt 18-20
May can be found at the following links: