The Delphi Technique

The Delphi method is a structured way to pool the opinions of many experts to reach a group solution. It was developed in 1969 by the Rand Corporation to facilitate technological forecasting. It has the benefit of overcoming the bias introduced by some voices being more dominant than others - by virtue either of personality or eminence. The Delphi Method tends to produce robust predictions based on experience, by eliminating the wilder contributions. However, when the past is a poor guide to the future and there is a possibility of massive and discontinuous change, the Delphi Method is not suitable. The primary uses of the Delphi method are in forecasting and decision-making. Here is a process for using the Delphi Method for Problem Solving. 1. 2. Select your panel of "experts" who will work on the problem Develop your initial set of questions, and send them to all participants Ensure that, as well as asking them for their solution or prediction, you also elicit their reasons Analyse and tabulate the results, including the reasons. Based on these, prepare a second set of questions Return the results to each participant along with the reasons and the new questions Continue looping back to step 3 until little or no change occurs. Then prepare your report and analysis, as required

3. 4. 5.

Benefits of this approach:

Eliminates need for group meetings Alleviates some of the bias inherent in group meetings Participants can change their minds anonymously

Weaknesses of this approach:

Can take a lot of time to reach consensus Participants may drop out Not as scientific as it appears

Take care with:

The form of the questions - which could introduce bias The choice and balance of your experts independence and diversity Keeping your experts informed and engaged

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