POLLING MEMORANDUM

By Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies Research

Wenzel Strategies conducted a telephone survey of likely Republican special primary election voters in Arizonas currently existing 8th Congressional District regarding the selection of a nominee to fill a vacant congressional seat. The survey was conducted Feb. 15-16, 2012, and included 700 respondents. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.68 percentage points.

The survey of voters in AZ CD8 shows that Jesse Kelly is far and away the leader for the Republican nomination for Congress, winning 43% support in a five-way contest. He is far better known than any of the other candidates in the race, and leads by wide margins in almost every demographic category in the survey. Among self-identified moderates and mainline conservatives, he leads with 38% support, while among conservatives who support the TEA Party movement he wins 46% support. A distant second place is Frank Antenori, who wins 18% support in the survey. Another 20% said they were unsure for whom to vote in the special primary election. The survey also shows that Kellys support is much more solid than is the support for the other candidates, as 56% of Kelly voters said they were firm in their choice. Another 34% of his supporters said they were moderately settled on their choice in the race, but that it was possible they could change their mind before they vote. Just 10% of Kelly voters said they were very open to changing their minds before they vote. Seven out of 10 respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Kelly, while just 16% said they had an unfavorable opinion of him. Just 14% said they did not know enough about Kelly to have formed an opinion about him. Respondents also said they were displeased with the direction in which things in general were heading in the local area. Just 12 said things locally were on the right track, while 78% said things were headed in the wrong direction.
10. If the election for the Republican nomination for Congress in our local area was today, and the candidates were Frank Antenori, Jesse Kelly, John Lervold, Martha McSally, and Dave Sitton, for whom would you vote?
BALLOT TEST Frequency 1-ANTENORI 2-KELLY 3-LERVOLD Valid 4-McSALLY 5-SITTON 6-NOT SURE Total 126 299 8 56 71 140 700 Percent 18.0 42.7 1.1 8.0 10.1 20.0 100.0 Valid Percent 18.0 42.7 1.1 8.0 10.1 20.0 100.0 Cumulative Percent 18.0 60.7 61.9 69.9 80.0 100.0