Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for July 31, 2012---Page 1

In this update: Severe thunderstorms possible today

Key Points for this event: Numerous thunderstorms are expected today. These storms are expected to organize into a cluster of strong to severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts. The current weather picture: An area of thunderstorms organized over central & northern Alabama overnight. There have been several reports of flash flooding and wind damage with these storms. This storm complex has been approaching our area, but may weaken before getting here. However, the relatively cool, moist air flowing out from these storms ( outflow) may new thunderstorms later this morning or this afternoon.
Radar mosaic and CG lightning from 524 am EDT Tuesday.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for July 31, 2012---Page 2

The Event: Because of the ample moisture, instability, and relatively strong winds aloft expected over our region, the thunderstorms that develop today may organize into a system similar to the one affecting central Alabama early this morning. If this complex of storms develops as expected, it will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, very heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Large hail is also possible, but will likely be less frequent than the damaging wind gusts. An isolated, brief tornado cant be ruled out. The timing of this event is uncertain. If the group of storms to our northwest is able to maintain its intensity, we could begin getting severe weather before Noon. If the system to our north diminishes (or misses our area), then it may take until this afternoon for more thunderstorms to develop and organize in the heat of the day. (It may also take that much time for the clouds from the system to our north to thin out enough for more heating). Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today (yellow):

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for July 31, 2012---Page 3

30% Probability (red) of damaging wind gusts within 25 miles of a point. This may not sound very high (when compared to our normal rain chances), but it is actually quite high in terms of severe weather- especially during the summer.

Impacts Todays severe weather is likely to be more widespread than in recent events, which could place more of a strain local emergency management and first response resources. The expected impacts include areas of downed trees and/or power, and damage to more vulnerable structures like mobile homes and small sheds. Flooding and large hail are also possible, but are not expected to be as widespread. An isolated tornado cant be ruled out as well.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for July 31, 2012---Page 4

Summary: Severe thunderstorms are possible today, but the timing is uncertain. Damaging winds are the main threat, but large hail, localized flooding, and even a brief tornado cant be ruled out. This event has the potential to be more widespread than recent severe events.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will continue to monitor this situation. If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line at 800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You can also reach us on our Southern Linc phone at 1*77*184.