Cloud Business Model

09
mobile trends
Compiled by Christian Lindholm & team
2008 Fjord. All rights reserved.

2009 Topics of Importance
Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

2009 Trend Candidates

2009 Key Fjord Trends

App Stores are digital
Innovation Bazaars
Nowhere in the industry can the future of
mobility be seen as clearly as in Apple‟s
App Store.
2009 will be a year of wonderful digital
bazaars full of innovative apps and
services from developers around the
world. Homebrew computing will be
reborn.

Innovation Bazaars
For many years, mobile apps have been lost in the dark alleys of operator portals
with poor selection, poor discoverability, and bad revenue splits.
Apple‟s App Store has changed everything. Marketers have innovated new app concepts
The predictable process of getting into the like iPint and iZippo that make advertising a
store, the application search and discovery socially sharable act.
experience for customers, and the collection The long tail of the App Store will allow the
of revenue has become easy. Homebrew iPhone to attract great content and emerge as
computing will be reborn and thrive. a true mobile gaming platform that puts
Pangea, the creators of the Bugdom and pressure on the Nintendo DS and Sony PSP.
Nanosaur games, has made $5M on iPhone These real revenue and brand exposure
apps…more than from 21 previous years of opportunities will start a tornado of innovation,
software sales. investment, and competition that will delight
Pricing below €2 seems to unlock volumes users and finally unlock the potential of
through impulse buying. “Trial” apps with smartphones as open platforms.
limited feature sets, free apps with ad-based Operators, Nokia and even the major Internet
business models and rental charging will also portals such as Amazon, eBay, Google, MSN,
succeed. and Yahoo will fight for control of these new
. marketplaces.

Innovation Bazaars

The Cloud puts digital life
at your fingertips
Mobile phones become true life recorders as
Moore‟s Law drives processing power and
memory density up and costs down. Everything
you record is sent to the Cloud.
These Cloud-based services safely store and
effortlessly share your life. The PC is displaced
as the hub and takes its place as a powerful but
non-mobile client.

The Cloud puts digital life
at your fingertips
Increases in processing, memory and software capability turn phones into true life
recorders. Cloud-based services safely store and effortlessly share your life. The
PC continues its evolution from hub to client.
Continuing and dramatic reduction in the cost In the developed world, Outlook is no longer
of memory, increase in mobile processing the sole repository of all personal information.
power and advances in operating systems The PC continues its displacement from being
enable phones to become truly powerful life the primary digital hub into a powerful client
recording computers. that is best used sitting down at home or
Everything from location, photos, video, work.
speech, audio and nearby friends becomes In the emerging economies and for mobile-
indexed and sent to the Cloud. centric teens there are even fewer reasons to
The “Cloud" as embodied by Facebook, centre your digital life around a PC as Cloud-
Google, Apple‟s Mobile Me, MSN, Yahoo, based services are cheaper and more
MySpace and others is where the most accessible, interconnected and reliable.
relevant information about your friends lives. Google‟s profitable web business model and
It‟s also the place where you publish your life unparalleled distributed computing network
story, hear from far-away friends and make gives them a massive head start. Facebook is
new ones. growing at a massive rate. AOL, Microsoft and
Yahoo are chasing. Nokia is struggling to get
in the game.

The Cloud puts digital life at
your fingertips

Netbooks for connected kids
Connected Netbooks quickly penetrate
the connected youth market by
offering better internet experiences
and ergonomics than a smartphone,
creating new revenue opportunities for
mobile operators

Netbooks for connected kids
The Netbook is less than 1kg and an A4 or smaller sized machine powerful
enough for all the normal consumer computing tasks. It will be sold by mobile
operators using 24 month subscriptions costing €30 a month.
Netbooks will be favoured by teenagers Netbooks will be free in exchange for a €30
wanting to hangout in Facebook and a month, 18-24 month subscription which will
MySpace, chat over IM, video call over be appealing to cash-constrained consumers.
Skype, and watch videos at YouTube. This is As with the iPhone, Netbooks offer a business
the personal communication and model that unlocks mobile data revenues.
entertainment centre; however their argument
for getting one will be homework. It will be We expect several new consumer-friendly
used continuously at school, on the bus, and Linux based experiences to emerge during
in the bedroom. 2009 funded by operators. Gaining an
experience control point which can act as a
The screen of 9‟ to 10‟ seems suitable for
base for future service revenues is too
browsing and typical non-work related tasks
attractive to pass up for the operators.
and is at the same time highly portable.
Windows XP will also do well in the developed
The incumbents will dismiss it as a toy, falling markets.
into an innovators dilemma trap.
Key players to watch in 2009 are Acer, Asus
The opportunistic Taiwanese will find new and HP who have some of the most
business from the growth-hungry and cash- innovative devices in space. Watch Carphone
strong mobile operators.
Warehouse to see how the business model is
shaped. We predict that Apple will also enter
the space, but not until 2010.

Netbooks for
connected kids

TV finally goes mobile
Timeshifting, placeshifting and
episodification of visually rich audio/visual
content is creating a TV revolution in which
content is decoupled from the constraints of
the broadcast model and mobile-enabled in
both the time and place. „Transmedia‟
content is now available on multiple devices
and consumed when needed.
This transformation will be lead by the BBC,
Apple and YouTube.

2.4” QVGA screens are becoming standard. Memory cost is rapidly falling. New
phones play high-quality video and offer fast downloads and streaming. This is an
attractive platform for the content industry and a boredom killer for commuters.
Even better video playback from new mobile We expect the most progressive broadcasters will
chips in 2009 and less inexpensive memory start to create new forms of content which is
cards will make it easy to stream, sync, and centred around content brands, but where the
download video content. content is available in smaller time chunks. Sport,
The BBC‟s iPlayer is spearheading the new news and weather will be among the first to
TV which provides for time-shifting and evolve.
place-shifting. Apple‟s focus on video in the Handset vendors and operators will want to
iPhone and iPod as well as the iTunes Store promote these services. New business models
is a great “side loading” experience. will be created. iTunes is an early success with
Going from a controller-based linear both renting and purchasing options. The mobile
broadcasting model to an on-demand social + fixed line operators offering TV over broadband
consumer-pulled model is a revolution that will will invest in mobile and strike broader content
efficiently cater to the social trend of boredom. licensing deals to drive revenue and to
differentiate from smaller competitors.
2009 will be the year the mobile couch potato
is born. We will see consumers staring at their As with YouTube before it, in 2009 we will see TV
mobiles with headphones on as they tune in becoming more community driven and users
to mobile TV and tune out of reality. helping to surface great content by promoting and
driving traffic to it.


Companions at the mobile feast
More users will carry companion products in
2009.
For years Blackberry users have carried a
smaller phone for voice. Early adopters carry the
iPod in addition to a mobile as their optimised
music device. In 2009 we will see more iPhones
and iPod touches in users‟ second pocket as an
entertainment computer. The losing battle with
battery life, the need to disconnect from work,
high cross-operator tariffs, and the advantages of
a dedicated device are the main drivers.

Companions at the mobile feast
Consumer research would typically confirm that users want fewer devices rather
than more. Behaviour is increasingly indicating the opposite.
Heavy Blackberry e-mail users have for years We do think that consumers have no problem
carried a second phone for voice. Many managing two mobile devices. They
consumers prefer to combine a mobile phone increasingly realise that two companions are
for calls and an iPod for music. better than one at the mobile feast.
The leading practical reasons include limited We would expect during 2009 to start to see
battery life constraining usage, a need to additional successful fusions of music + voice
control the ever-presence of work, and high beyond the iPhone where users select a
costs to communicate with friends on different casual computer as their second device. This
operators. combination allows for good ergonomics and
However, in addition increasingly the good service evolution.
capabilities of a specialist device outweigh the We also expect to see rich camera + voice +
inconvenience of carrying two devices. Their GPS combinations where the high-end mobile
superior interaction, functionality and display again grows in thickness to cater for powerful
means that the mobile phone is good enough optics and great battery life for voice, mapping
for voice, text and camera, but does not and life recording.
compete in the delivery of media content.

Companions at the
mobile feast

Microblogging becomes
Micromedia
Facebook status updating is addictive and the
volume of updates and comments is growing
explosively. Twitter has become a conversation
and is moving into the mainstream.
Microblogging will evolve from a naval-gazing toy
to the Swiss army knife of social media. Its
simplicity and openness make it very flexible and
adaptable to user needs. It has the potential to
combine messaging, sharing, news reading and
search. The status field is the new search box.

Microblogging becomes Micromedia
The simple one-to-many sharing of life moments with friends and the world at
large, allows people to feel connected and part of a community.
The constantly accelerating pace of modern Twitter‟s openness and flexibility has turned
life means less time for long form content. into a social network, IM service, news reader,
Microblogging will deliver customised streams social search and sharing service.
of bite-size information from across the web All of this still limited to 140 characters.
that fits the new pace of life. The US election raised Twitter‟s profile with
We don‟t have time for IM, news reading, and the candidates setting up accounts.
social networks, but they are all enjoyable and Celebrities from Britney Spears to Stephen
important. We need to do more with less. Fry as well as brands such as Comcast and
Bloggers will find that microblogging satisfies Dell followed, all of whom are sharing news
the majority of their need to speak out. and engaging in conversations.
Microblogging is often as short as 140 13 million Facebook users update their status
characters. It is simple and flexible, allowing with simple text notes at least once every
developers to extend it and users to consume single day…and over 1M mobile replies were
what they need. Its brevity is suited to mobile. left on the site within the first 24 hours of the
Twitter started the microblogging launch of “commenting” support for mobile
phenomenon by asking: “What are you phone users.
doing?” That question has intrigued millions In 2009, microblogging won‟t be about
of users and now Twitter invites new users to blogging, it will be about the web.
”Join the conversation”.

Microblogging becomes
Micromedia

The Android invasion
There are an increasing number of Android
projects under way in R&D labs around the
globe. The open source genie is finally out of the
bottle in the mobile industry and will be
impossible to put back in.
In-house operating systems will have a harder
time staying alive as margin pressure increases.
Operating system competitors will feel the
squeeze and Asian manufacturers will take full
advantage of free access to great software.

As R&D budgets are tightened, managers look to fast solutions. This could help
Android mature faster, when managers worry about surviving next year, rather
than worry about being strong in five years.
The Android platform is gaining momentum. Operators will certainly endorse Android as they
There are a growing number of projects rushing see it as an open platform which they can
to build phones on top of the platform. It is the customise. However, as the iPhone has proven,
choice of small players like HTC shaping more of a mobile platform really shines when developers
their destiny, Chinese manufacturers competing innovate on top of it. The challenge with
on a more level playing field with Nokia and customisation is that it can be easy to “break”
mobile operators wanting an environment they developers‟ existing applications. Operators and
can customise at will. manufacturers will have to walk a fine line
It is expected that both Samsung and LG would between differentiation and developer disruption.
follow their past strategy of endorsing all The developers, development tools, linkage to
operating systems. Their processes are well Google “cloud” services, indexing of generated
suited to many independent and parallel projects data and continuous improvements to the
and they will make beautiful and exciting Android platform remain crucial control points for Google.
hardware. Android is still a primitive, unpolished user
Android is one of Motorola‟s last lifeboats, but experience and lacks meaningful differentiation.
long term it becomes increasingly harder to see Search as a user experience paradigm has not
what makes Motorola unique in the market. been leveraged. The current platform lacks all
sex appeal. Aggressive innovation is needed.


War for the world
Nokia has dominated the low-end, high-volume
end of the mobile market for years, constantly
being challenged by numerous small players
driving down cost.
In 2009 this battle to connect the world‟s
population will heat up and the dynamics will
change as both Samsung and LG will bring out
an arsenal of low-end devices and operators will
continue to steer volume to non-branded ODMs
and aggressive Chinese OEMs like ZTE and
Huawei.

War for the world
As the mobile industry brings voice and SMS to the entire human population, the
battle for control heats up and the dynamics change.
We think both Samsung and LG need to step Making cheap and cheerful mobiles has little
up in their marketing efforts as these markets to do with making high-end feature monsters.
are not controlled by operators. We believe that the current economic climate
Nokia is pushing ahead with much more will accelerate this polarisation.
advanced marketing that engages people and A major opportunity will emerge by combining
their communities. Mobility is widely perceived focused internet experiences with low-end
as a universal good and currently Nokia is terminals. For example, Opera enjoys
seen in many markets as the branded considerable success in the emerging
messenger spreading the word. markets and we expect Facebook and other
The Chinese play by their own rules in IPR applications and service providers to follow.
and elsewhere making it harder for LG and By building great mobile applications one
Samsung who have to make a choice whose could radically change the perception of the
game to play. Nokia has been able to live a internet.
double life due to their powerful IPR portfolio. Also, more powerful and much cheaper chips
We think there is a massive opportunity for tied with the emergence of viable open source
innovation in the low end and selling cheap software platforms such as Android will allow
voice alone is not a sustainable strategy. cutting edge software innovation from the US
and Europe to help accelerate the Chinese
and other Asian manufacturers.

War for the world

QWERTY goes consumer
Tweens are messaging natives and
social network addicts. They will
look for more efficiency from their
mobile and will start selecting
QWERTY keyboard devices in
increasing numbers during 2009.

The Blackberry‟s relentless focus on a small QWERTY keyboard and e-mail has
transformed the industry.
The small QWERTY mono-block device is Entering text on a small QWERTY device is
becoming a dominant design and moving into on average about twice as fast on a 12-key
the mainstream. phone with T9 predictive text input.
Nokia has finally built a small QWERTY We will see many more QWERTY devices
keyboard worthy of challenging the Blackberry emerge during 2009 with many types of
with the E71. Nokia will become a major operating systems.
challenger with the low cost E63 and Nokia‟s
strategic focus on enabling e-mail for the 80% We expect lots of innovation in clever
of the world that does not have an account. We prediction, error correction, combined with
expect RIM to aggressively push into lower clever mechanics for greatly improved
price points, improve their consumer offering ergonomics.
and grow their market share in 2009. We think these devices will become especially
The lower price points and improved software addictive when bundled with apps from
have already made devices like these the Facebook, MySpace and Skype.
favourite among the American Facebook In 2009 HTC, Nokia, Samsung and LG will
generation who spend so much time chase RIM into the consumer market.
communicating using social networks, SMS and
Microsoft‟s acquisition of Danger in early
images.
2008, may also result in a more multimedia-
centric QWERTY product.


Location becomes the new
service bedrock
Nokia is aggressively investing in location and
their strategy of coordinating people‟s lives using
maps is compelling. Google is the main
challenger with ubiquity on the web and working
hard in mobile. Location awareness in mass
market phones will lay the foundation.
The massive scale of investment is creating
insurmountable entry barriers for smaller players.
Maps are the service Trojan Horses for both
Google and Nokia.

Location becomes the new
service bedrock
Location will be the bedrock of compelling consumer mobile services with
enormous monetisation potential.
Location and the services built on top of maps The current methods of overlaying information
will become one of the hottest topics in 2009. on maps do not scale and will run into
Nokia and Google will charge forward, problems. There is a need for innovation in
Microsoft and Yahoo! will chase them and how to contextually search for and find things.
others will react. Start-ups will continue to One challenge for the mobile industry is to
proliferate and be acquired. crack the concept that will bring local
The opportunity to innovate on top of location businesses and consumers together in a
is enormous in many areas ranging from common experience where businesses can
social networking, to enhanced prosper and consumers get rapid access to
communication, to rich advertising services. information.
Tremendous new value will be created. Mapping data requires similar investment to
All of this is fueled by GPS enabled devices at an operating system and needs to extract
significantly lower cost as well as new local knowledge from people to enrich the
generations of hardware and software making experience. Only locals know where the best
positioning faster, less power hungry, and coffee is served.
more accurate including the ability to have TomTom and their core asset Tele Atlas is an
continuous positioning even when indoors. expensive but likely acquisition target.
Traditional publishers will start to feel the
pressure.

Location becomes the
new service bedrock

THANK YOU!


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09

2008 Fjord. All rights reserved.

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm

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