EXTENDED PROJECT

TIME SERIES FORECASTING

SHOE SALES - BUSINESS REPORT

RHEA.S.M
PGPDSBA Online Sep_B 2021

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 Table of Contents

1. Problem 1:......................................................................................................................................................
1.1. Objective.........................................................................................................................................................
1.2. Descriptive and Exploratory Data Analysis......................................................................................................
1.2.1. Descriptive Data analysis:.......................................................................................................................
1.2.2. Time Series Data- Plotted:.......................................................................................................................
1.2.3. Exploratory Data Analysis:......................................................................................................................
1.3. Splitting of Train and Test data.......................................................................................................................
1.4. Building Different models and checking RMSE.............................................................................................
1.4.1. Linear Regression:.................................................................................................................................
1.4.2. Naïve Bayes Model:..............................................................................................................................
1.4.3. Simple Average Forecast:......................................................................................................................
1.4.4. Moving Average Forecast:....................................................................................................................
1.4.5. Simple Exponential Smoothening:........................................................................................................
1.4.6. Double Exponential Smoothening:........................................................................................................
1.4.7. Triple Exponential Smoothening:..........................................................................................................
1.4.8. Triple Exponential Smoothening (Multiplicative):.................................................................................
1.5. Checking for Stationarity..............................................................................................................................
1.6. ARIMA and SARIMA using lowest AIC method:.............................................................................................
1.7. ARIMA and SARIMA based on the cut-off points of ACF and PACF:..............................................................
1.8. Comparing RMSE values...............................................................................................................................
1.9. Building of optimum model and 12 month forecast.....................................................................................
1.10. Findings and Suggestions......................................................................................................................

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 List of Figures
Figure Name Page
No. No.
Fig 1 Time Series Plot –Shoe Sales 5
Fig 2 Monthly Box plot of Shoe Sales 6
Fig 3 Monthly Shoe Sales across the years 6
Fig 4 Time Series Plot along with Mean and Median 6
Fig 5 Multiplicative Decomposition of dataset 7
Fig 6 Additive Decomposition of dataset 8
Fig 7 Shoe Sales- Train and Test split 9
Fig 8 Linear Regression 10
Fig 9 Naïve Bayes Model 11
Fig 10 Simple Average Forecast 11
Fig 11 Trailing Moving Average Forecast 12
Fig 12 Single Exponential Smoothening 13
Fig 13 Single and Double Exponential Smoothening 13
Fig 14 Simple, Double and Triple Exponential Smoothening 14
Fig 15 Simple, Double and Triple Exponential Smoothening(Multiplicative) 14
Fig 16 Stationarity of Shoe Sales at lag 1 16
Fig 17 AIC-ARIMA(2,1,3) A. Summary, B. Graph and C. Diagnostics 18
Fig 18 AIC- SARIMA(0,1,2) (1, 0, 2, 12) A. Summary, B. Graph and C. Diagnostics 20
Fig 19 Autocorrelation of Differenced Data 21
Fig 20 Partial Autocorrelation of Differenced Data 21
Fig 21 ACF/PACF- ARIMA(3,1,1) A. Summary, B. Graph and C. Diagnostics 22
Fig 22 Figure-22 ACF/PACF- SARIMA(3,1,1) (2, 0, 4, 12) A. Summary, B. Graph and C. 24
Diagnostics
Fig 23 Optimum Model Forecast for next 12 months 25

List of Tables
Table No. Name Page No.
Table 1 Summary of Descriptive statistics information 4
Table 2 Train and Test Split 9
Table 3 Summary Results of all models 24

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1. Problem 1:
1.1. Objective

 The objective the problem is to build an optimum model, to forecast the sales of the
pairs of shoes for the upcoming 12 months from where the data currently ends.
 We additionally also have to comment on the model thus built and report our findings
and suggest the measures that the company should be taking for future sales.

1.2. Descriptive and Exploratory Data Analysis

Background: You are an analyst in the IJK shoe company and you are expected to
forecast the sales of the pairs of shoes for the upcoming 12 months from where the
data ends. The data for the pair of shoe sales have been given to you from January
1980 to July 1995.
Data Dictionary:
YearMonth: Month and Year of Shoe Sales
Shoe_Sales: The monthly sale of shoes
1.2.1. Descriptive Data analysis:

 The dataset has been read and stored as a data frame for further analysis.
 Provided data set consists of total 2 columns and has 187 entries that are
numerical in nature. There are no null values present.
 The first column represents the date as which the Shoe Sales have been
recorded. While the second column represents the Sales itself.
 The following Table 1 consists the head(), tail(), info() and description of the
dataset at hand.

Table-1: Summary of Descriptive statistics information

Head of the dataset: Tail of the dataset: Info of dataset:

Describe function on dataset: There are no null values in the dataset.

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1.2.2. Time Series Data- Plotted:

 A time series is a series of measurements on the same variable collected over

time. These measurements are made at regular time intervals. A time series is
a series of data points indexed in time order. Most commonly, a time series is
a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a
sequence of discrete-time data.
 We can clearly see a yearly trend of sales of shoes in the Figure-1 plotted
below. This graph gives us an overview of the data without actually having
to check each number in the dataset.

Figure-1 Time Series Plot –Shoe Sales

1.2.3. Exploratory Data Analysis:

 Exploratory Data Analysis refers to the critical process of performing initial

investigations on data so as to discover patterns, to spot anomalies and to test
hypothesis.
 In the following Figure-2 we can see the Monthly Box Plots of Shoe Sales.
We can see that there are outliers present in April and May. This tells us
there were some sales made in those months that were out of the usual.
 We see that the sales tend to pick up at the second half of the year more than
the first. December records the highest sales in shoes.
 The spike may be due to the Holiday season, and maybe shoes are very
popularly purchased and used either for self-consumption or gifting
purposes.
 We can see the monthly as well as the yearly trend showcased in Figure-3.
Again showing us that December is the most popular month for Shoe Sales
as well as the year it peaked in sales between 1986 and 1988.This peak may
be due to widespread interest and a lot of innovations done to lure the
customers into buying their products, thus boosting sales.
 Figure-4 shows us the time series plotted along with the mean and median
values plotted along the same graph, to get an understanding of the
fluctuation of the data from these two measures of central tendency.

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 Additionally since the mean is shown to be higher than the median, leading
to a conclusion that the distribution is positively skewed.

Figure-2 Monthly Box plot of Shoe Sales

Figure-3 Monthly Shoe Sales across the years

Figure-4 Time Series Plot along with Mean and Median

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 DECOMPOSITION OF THE DATASET:

Time series decomposition involves thinking of a series as a combination of

level, trend, seasonality, and noise components. Decomposition provides a
useful abstract model for thinking about time series generally and for better
understanding problems during time series analysis and forecasting. They are
of two types generally multiplicative and additive.

(i) Multiplicative Decomposition Of The Dataset:

Data is represented in terms of multiplication of seasonality, trend,
cyclical and residual components. Used where change is measured in
percent (%) change.

Figure-5 Multiplicative Decomposition of dataset

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 (ii) Additive Decomposition Of The Dataset:
Data is represented in terms of addition of seasonality, trend, cyclical
and residual components. Used where change is measured in absolute
quantity.

Figure-6 Additive Decomposition of dataset

Since we are looking at change in absolute quantity for this particular dataset we
move on with using the additive model.

1.3. Splitting of Train and Test data

The train-test split is used to estimate the performance of machine learning algorithms
that are applicable for prediction-based Algorithms/Applications. This method is a
fast and easy procedure to perform such that we can compare our own machine
learning model results to machine results.
Both the datasets have been split at the Year 1991. This means that the test data starts
from 1991.

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 Table-2: Train and Test Split

Train data Head of the dataset: Test data Head of the dataset:

Train data Tail of the dataset: Test data Tail of the dataset:

Train Data Shape = (132, 1) Test Data Shape = (55, 1)

Graphic representation of Train and Test Split:

Figure-7 Shoe Sales- Train and Test split

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1.4. Building Different models and checking RMSE

 We have been asked to build various exponential smoothing models on the

training data and evaluate the model using RMSE on the test data.
 We are also to make other models such as linear regression, naïve forecast
models, simple average models, etc. and check the performance on the test
data using RMSE.
 The main objective of building so many models is to ensure we pick an
optimum model with the lowest RMSE and MAPE values.
 MAPE stands for mean absolute percentage error. It is the average
multiplicative effect between each estimated mean and the observed
outcome. RMSE stands for root mean squared error, i.e. standard deviation.

1.4.1. Linear Regression:

 Linear Regression is a machine learning algorithm based on supervised

learning. It performs a regression task. It is a great tool for forecasting. We can
see from the figure below that linear regression on time is on a constant rise.

Figure-8 Linear Regression

Model Type RMSE

Regression On Time 266.2765

1.4.2. Naïve Bayes Model:

 Classifiers such as Naive Bayes make use of a language model for classifying

and making predictions on time-series data. Figure-9 states that the Naïve
Forecast on Test data is constantly the same for the whole data, which isn’t
ideal.

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 Figure-9 Naïve Bayes Model

Model Type RMSE

Regression On Time 266.2765
Naïve Model 245.1213

The RMSE values seem to be lowest for Naïve Bayes so far. But since the
forecast is constant through the years, it isn’t an ideal model for our dataset.

1.4.3. Simple Average Forecast:

The method is very simple. We average the data by months or quarters or years
and then calculate the average for the period. We later proceed to find out, what
percentage it is to the grand average.

Figure-10 Simple Average Forecast

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 Model Type RMSE
RegressionOnTime 266.276
5
NaiveModel 245.121
3
SimpleAverageModel 63.9845
7

The RMSE values seem to be lowest for the Simple Average Method so far. But
since the forecast is constant through the years, it isn’t an ideal model for our
dataset.

1.4.4. Moving Average Forecast:

 Moving Average Forecasting is a naive and effective technique in time series

forecasting.
 Calculating a moving average involves creating a new series where the values
are comprised of the average of raw observations in the original time series.
 A moving average requires that you specify a window size called the window
width. This defines the number of raw observations used to calculate the
moving average value. We have used the trailing moving average method.

Figure-11 Trailing Moving Average Forecast

Model Type RMSE

RegressionOnTime 266.2765
NaiveModel 245.1213
SimpleAverageModel 63.98457
2pointTrailingMovingAverage 45.94874
4pointTrailingMovingAverage 57.87269
6pointTrailingMovingAverage 63.45689
9pointTrailingMovingAverage 67.72365

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 The RMSE values seem to be lowest for the 2 point Trailing Moving Average
Method so far.

1.4.5. Simple Exponential Smoothening:

 Single Exponential Smoothing, SES for short, also called Simple

Exponential Smoothing, is a time series forecasting method for univariate
data without a trend or seasonality. It requires a single parameter, called
alpha (a), also called the smoothing factor or smoothing coefficient.
 The alpha value or smoothening level at which the graph is plotted is 0.605.

Figure-12 Simple Exponential Smoothening

1.4.6. Double Exponential Smoothening:

 Double exponential smoothing employs a level component and a trend

component at each period. Double exponential smoothing uses two weights,
(also called smoothing parameters), to update the components at each period.
 The alpha value or smoothening level at which the graph is plotted is 0.594,
while the beta or smoothening trend is 0.0002.

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 Figure-13 Simple and Double Exponential Smoothening

1.4.7. Triple Exponential Smoothening:

 Triple exponential smoothing is used to handle the time series data

containing a seasonal component. This method is based on three smoothing
equations: stationary component, trend, and seasonal. Both seasonal and
trend can be additive or multiplicative. This is the additive model.
 The alpha value or smoothening level at which the graph is plotted is 0.570,
while the beta or smoothening trend is 0.0001 and gamma or smoothening
seasonal is 0.293.

Figure-14 Simple, Double and Triple Exponential Smoothening

1.4.8. Triple Exponential Smoothening (Multiplicative):

 This method is based on three smoothing equations: stationary component,

trend, and seasonal. This is the multiplicative model.
 The alpha value or smoothening level at which the graph is plotted is 0.571,
while the beta or smoothening trend is 0.0001 and gamma or smoothening
seasonal is 0.202.

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 Figure-15 Simple, Double and Triple Exponential Smoothening (Multiplicative)
Model Type RMSE
RegressionOnTime 266.2765
NaiveModel 245.1213
SimpleAverageModel 63.98457
2pointTrailingMovingAverage 45.94874
4pointTrailingMovingAverage 57.87269
6pointTrailingMovingAverage 63.45689
9pointTrailingMovingAverage 67.72365
SimpleExponentialSmoothing 196.4048
DoubleExponentialSmoothing 266.1612
TripleExponentialSmoothing 128.9925
TripleExponentialSmoothingMultiplicative 83.73405

The RMSE values seem to be lowest for the 2 point Trailing Moving Average
Method so far.

1.5. Checking for Stationarity

 The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test is a unit root test which determines

whether there is a unit root and subsequently whether the series is non-
stationary.
 The hypothesis in a simple form for the ADF test is:
H0: The Time Series has a unit root and is thus non-stationary.
H1: The Time Series does not have a unit root and is thus stationary.
 We would want the series to be stationary for building ARIMA models and
thus we would want the p-value of this test to be less than the Alpha value.

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  When ADF was applied on the model we got a p-value of 0.801 which is
higher than 0.5, hence we fail to reject the null hypothesis. Concluding that the
series is not stationary.
 We now have to do a level differencing on the dataset and check for
Stationarity.
 The p-value after level 1 differencing is 0.0361<0.05, hence we now reject the
null hypothesis and conclude that the series is stationary with a lag of 1.
 Below is a graphic representation of the same. The test statistic value is -
3.532, while the number of lags used is 12.
 Now that the data is stationary we can move on to building the ARIMA and
SARIMA models.

Figure-16 Stationarity of Shoe Sales at lag 1

1.6. ARIMA and SARIMA using lowest AIC method:

 An ARIMA model consists of the Auto-Regressive (AR) part and the Moving
Average (MA) part after we have made the Time Series stationary by taking the
correct degree/order of differencing.
 ARIMA models can be built keeping the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) in mind
as well. In this case, we choose the ‘p’ and ‘q’ values to determine the AR and MA
orders respectively which gives us the lowest AIC value. Lower the AIC better is the
model.
 Coding languages tries different orders of ‘p’ and ‘q’ to arrive to this conclusion.
Remember, even for such a way of choosing the ‘p’ and ‘q’ values, we must make
sure that the series is stationary.
 The formula for calculating the AIC is 2k – 2ln(L), where k is the number of
parameters to be estimated and L is the likelihood estimation.
 For the SARIMA models, we can also estimate ‘p’, ‘q’ , ‘P’ and ‘Q’ by looking at the
lowest AIC values.

 ARIMA:
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 i. We first create a grid of all possible outcomes (p,d,q). The range of ‘p’ and ‘q’
being (0,4) and ‘d’ a constant = 1.

The following is the grid of all possible outcomes:

Model: (0, 1, 1)
Model: (0, 1, 2)
Model: (0, 1, 3)
Model: (1, 1, 0)
Model: (1, 1, 1)
Model: (1, 1, 2)
Model: (1, 1, 3)
Model: (2, 1, 0)
Model: (2, 1, 1)
Model: (2, 1, 2)
Model: (2, 1, 3)
Model: (3, 1, 0)
Model: (3, 1, 1)
Model: (3, 1, 2)
Model: (3, 1, 3)

ii. We then move on to fit the ARIMA model into each of the above
combinations and end up choosing that one with the least AIC value.

param AIC

11 (2, 1, 3) 1480.805493

15 (3, 1, 3) 1482.566450

5 (1, 1, 1) 1492.487187

6 (1, 1, 2) 1494.423859

9 (2, 1, 1) 1494.431498

2 (0, 1, 2) 1494.964605

3 (0, 1, 3) 1495.148474

14 (3, 1, 2) 1495.655855

13 (3, 1, 1) 1496.346864

7 (1, 1, 3) 1496.385878

10 (2, 1, 2) 1496.410739

1 (0, 1, 1) 1497.050322

12 (3, 1, 0) 1498.930309

8 (2, 1, 0) 1498.950483

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 4 (1, 1, 0) 1501.643124

0 (0, 1, 0) 1508.283772

iii. The lowest AIC for ARIMA is clearly (2, 1, 3) with an AIC of 1480.80. We
now fit the train data with the model and forecast on the test set. And we get
the ARIMA Summary, graph and diagnostic results.

A.

B.

C.

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 Figure-17 AIC-ARIMA(2,1,3) A. Summary, B. Graph and C. Diagnostics

iv. We finally check the accuracy of the model with the help of the RMSE and
MAPE calculated.

Model Type RMSE MAPE

AIC-ARIMA(2,1,3) 184.648 85.73498

 SARIMA:

i. We create a grid of all possible combinations of (p,d,q) along with seasonal

(P,D,Q) and seasonality of 12. The range of ‘p’ and ‘q’ being (0,4) and ‘d’ a
constant = 1.

The following is the grid of all possible outcomes:

Model: (0, 1, 1)(0, 0, 1, 12)

Model: (0, 1, 2)(0, 0, 2, 12)
Model: (1, 1, 0)(1, 0, 0, 12)
Model: (1, 1, 1)(1, 0, 1, 12)
Model: (1, 1, 2)(1, 0, 2, 12)
Model: (2, 1, 0)(2, 0, 0, 12)
Model: (2, 1, 1)(2, 0, 1, 12)
Model: (2, 1, 2)(2, 0, 2, 12)

ii. We then move on to fit the SARIMA model into each of the above
combinations and end up choosing that one with the least AIC value.

param seasonal AIC

23 (0, 1, 2) (1, 0, 2, 12) 1156.165429
50 (1, 1, 2) (1, 0, 2, 12) 1157.082589
26 (0, 1, 2) (2, 0, 2, 12) 1157.772313
77 (2, 1, 2) (1, 0, 2, 12) 1158.490996

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 80 (2, 1, 2) (2, 0, 2, 12) 1158.630324

iii. The lowest AIC for SARIMA is clearly (0, 1, 2) (1, 0, 2, 12) with an AIC of
1156.165429. We now fit the train data with the model and forecast on the test
set. And we get the SARIMA Summary, graph and diagnostic results. This can
be seen in Figure-18 below.

iv. We finally check the accuracy of the model with the help of the RMSE and
MAPE calculated. AIC-SARIMA has lowest RMSE and MAPE up until now.

Model Type RMSE MAPE

AIC-ARIMA(2,1,3) 184.648 85.73498
AIC-SARIMA(0, 1, 2)(1, 0, 2, 12) 69.03066 26.45588

A.

B.

C.

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 Figure-18 AIC- SARIMA(0,1,2) (1, 0, 2, 12) A. Summary, B. Graph and C. Diagnostics

1.7. ARIMA and SARIMA based on the cut-off points of ACF and PACF:

 An ARIMA model consists of the Auto-Regressive (AR) part and the Moving
Average (MA) part after we have made the Time Series stationary by taking the
correct degree/order of differencing.
 The AR order is selected by looking at where the PACF plot cuts-off (for
appropriate confidence interval bands) and the MA order is selected by looking at
where the ACF plots cuts-off (for appropriate confidence interval bands).
 The correct degree or order of difference gives us the value of ‘d’ while the ‘p’
value is for the order of the AR model and the ‘q’ value is for the order of the MA
model.
 For SARIMA, the seasonal parameter ‘F’ can be determined by looking at the
ACF plots. The ACF plot is expected to show a spike at multiples of ‘F’ thereby
indicating a presence of seasonality.
 Also, for Seasonal models, the ACF and the PACF plots are going to behave a bit
different and they will not always continue to decay as the number of lags
increase.

 ARIMA:

i. We are to observe the ACF and PACF plots. We get the ‘p’ value from the
PACF and the ‘q’ value from the ACF plot. The following are the plots at d=1:

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 Figure-19 Autocorrelation of Differenced Data

Figure-20 Partial Autocorrelation of Differenced Data

ii. We then move on to fit the ARIMA model into (3,1,1). These values have
been found from the ACF and PACF plots. And we get the ARIMA Summary,
graph and diagnostic results.

A.

B.

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 C.

Figure-21 ACF/PACF- ARIMA(3,1,1) A. Summary, B. Graph and C. Diagnostics

iii. We finally check the accuracy of the model with the help of the RMSE and
MAPE calculated. AIC-SARIMA has lowest RMSE and MAPE up until now.

Model Type RMSE MAPE

AIC-ARIMA(2,1,3) 184.648 85.7349
8
AIC-SARIMA(0, 1, 2)(1, 0, 2, 12) 69.0306 26.4558
6 8
ACF/PACF-ARIMA(3,1,1) 144.183 66.9104
9 9
 SARIMA:

i. We are to observe the ACF and PACF plots. We get the ‘p’ value from the
PACF and the ‘q’ value from the ACF plot. From the above plots Figure 19
and 20 at d=1, frequency= 12. We additionally find P, D, Q from the above
plot by looking for seasonal peaks.

ii. We then move on to fit the SARIMA model into (3,1,1) (2, 0, 4, 12). These
values have been found from the ACF and PACF plots. And we get the
SARIMA Summary, graph and diagnostic results.

A.

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B.

C.

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 Figure-22 ACF/PACF- SARIMA(3,1,1) (2, 0, 4, 12) A. Summary, B. Graph and
C. Diagnostics

iii. We finally check the accuracy of the model with the help of the RMSE and
MAPE calculated. AIC-SARIMA has lowest RMSE and MAPE up until now.

Model Type RMSE MAPE

AIC-ARIMA(2,1,3) 184.648 85.73498
AIC-SARIMA(0, 1, 2)(1, 0, 2, 12) 69.0306 26.45588
6
ACF/PACF-ARIMA(3,1,1) 144.183 66.91049
9
ACF/PACF-SARIMA(3,1,1)(2, 0, 4, 12) 109.924 46.26953
2

1.8. Comparing RMSE values

Table 3- Summary Results of all models RMSE

Model Type RMSE MAPE
2pointTrailingMovingAverage 45.9487
4
4pointTrailingMovingAverage 57.8726
9
6pointTrailingMovingAverage 63.4568
9
SimpleAverageModel 63.9845
7
9pointTrailingMovingAverage 67.7236
5
AIC-SARIMA(0, 1, 2)(1, 0, 2, 12) 69.0306 26.45588
6
TripleExponentialSmoothingMultiplicative 83.7340
5
ACF/PACF-SARIMA(3,1,1)(2, 0, 4, 12) 109.924 46.26953
2
TripleExponentialSmoothing 128.992
5
ACF/PACF-ARIMA(3,1,1) 144.183 66.91049
9
AIC-ARIMA(2,1,3) 184.648 85.73498

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 SimpleExponentialSmoothing 196.404
8
NaiveModel 245.121
3
DoubleExponentialSmoothing 266.161
2
RegressionOnTime 266.276
5

 We see that the best model with least RMSE in the 2 point Trailing Moving Average,
followed by all the other moving averages and simple average too. At 6th place we see
AIC-SARIMA(0, 1, 2)(1, 0, 2, 12).
 Since the RMSE values are not too far apart from 1st to 6th place for ease of
computation and accurate predictability, we choose AIC-SARIMA(0, 1, 2)(1, 0, 2,
12). Additionally, ARIMA models are more computationally efficient and gives us
accurate predictions.
 It also takes into consideration MAPE, and it is always a good idea to have more than
one accuracy parameter.
 Industry wide exponential smoothening and ARIMA models are more popular when it
comes to model building. While exponential smoothing technique depends upon the
assumption of exponential decrease in weights for past data and ARIMA is employed
by transforming a time series to stationary series and studying the nature of the
stationary series through ACF and PACF and then accounting auto-regressive and
moving average effects in a time series, if present.

1.9. Building of optimum model and 12 month forecast

We are going to be building the optimum model with AIC-SARIMA(0, 1, 2)(1, 0, 2, 12)
as per explanation already provided above.

Figure-23 Optimum Model Forecast for next 12 months

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1.10. Findings and Suggestions

 Data set contains total of 187 entries among which 2 variables. The first
column represents the date as which the Shoe Sales have been recorded.
While the second column represents the Sales itself. There are no null values
in the dataset.
 There are outliers present in April and May. This tells us there were some
sales made in those months that were out of the usual.
 The sales tend to pick up at the second half of the year more than the first.
December records the highest sales in shoes.
 The spike may be due to the Holiday season, and maybe shoes are very
popularly purchased and used either for self-consumption or gifting
purposes.
 In the monthly as well as the yearly trend, we see that December is the most
popular month for Shoe Sales as well as the year it peaked in sales between
1986 and 1988. This peak may be due to widespread interest and a lot of
innovations done to lure the customers into buying their products, thus
boosting sales.
 From the forecast we see a clear peak, showcasing better sales than the year
prior. Hence, the manufacturers must ensure they have enough and more than
the year preceding.
 The company can boost sales higher than forecasted if they focus on
Advertising and launching new unique type of Shoes.
 With the launch of the new shoes they can entice customers and lure them
into thinking they need to buy the shoes because they are one of a kind.
Giving the manufacturers a first mover advantage.
 This will ensure boost in sales for a while and then decision of discontinuing
the manufacture of shoe types that are not that popular can be taken too. This
will help save important resources that can be used elsewhere.
 There is hope for the year on year spike to peak again, because shoes are a
necessity and the commodity will never lose its importance.

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