Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Today 5,953.19 3,365.79 Point Change - 14.43 + 2.65 % Change -0.24 % q 0.08 % p

ASPI S&P SL 20 Index YTD Performance ASPI S&P SL 20 Index

Level 23, East Tower, World Trade Centre, Colombo 01 Tel: +94 11 727 7000, Fax: +94 11 727 7099 Email: research@equity.softlogic.lk

5.5% 9.1% 876.0 823.3 32.2 39.4 2,280.8 85.8 204.0 118.2 8.6

Today's Turnover (LKR mn) Annual Average Daily Turnover (LKR mn) Volume (mn) Annual Average Daily Volume (mn) Market Capitalization (LKR bn) Net Foreign Inflow / (Outflow) [LKR mn] - Foreign Buying (LKR mn) - Foreign Selling (LKR mn) YTD Net Foreign Inflow / (Outflow) [LKR bn]

Index dipped amidst profit taking

CSE Diary for 30.04.2013

ASPI stepped into the red territory: The benchmark index fluctuated between marginal gains and losses as it touched 5,979.27 points (+11 points) during early trading hours led by gains in key dividend players of the bourse. However the uptrend was not sustained as the index dipped 14 points at its close denoting losses in Ceylon Tobacco Company (-1.0%), Commercial Leasing & Finance (-4.0%) and Nation Lanka Finance (-1.0%) outweighing gains in Chevron Lubricants (+4.1%), Lanka IOC (+8.5%) and Dialog Axiata (+1.1%). The S&P SL20 index ended trading with a marginal gain carrying its YTD gain to 9.1%. Colombo Land & Development topped the turnover: A counter which witnessed considerable gains during the recent rally, Colombo Land & Development spearheaded the turnover supported by 3 off-board blocks accumulating to c.3 mn shares at a 52-week high (off-board) price of LKR56.0. On-board activity in the counter depicted some selling pressure as it dipped 4.4% to LKR50.4 at its close. Tokyo Cement

and Commercial Bank registered one crossing each at LKR24.0 and LKR114.5 respectively. The latter witnessed strong on-board interest with 2 large blocks which were transacted at a similar price. BFI sector added 32% to the turnover; several counters at 52-week high levels: Banking sector interest was largely driven by Commercial Bank (+0.3%) and National Development Bank (-0.2%). Both Seylan Bank Voting and Non-Voting gained focus as each traded at 52-week high prices of LKR70.0 and LKR38.2. John Keells Holdings recorded a peak of LKR250.0 backed by strong on-board activity today while key dividend players of the bourse; Nestle Lanka and Chevron Lubricants touched new 52-week levels of LKR1,820.0 and LKR250.0 respectively. Lanka IOC was among the 52week high list trading at LKR25.2.

Retailers continued on an active streak: Strong retail activity surrounded SMB Leasing, Touchwood Investments, Colombo Land & Development and Central Investments & Finance.

Statistical Look Up
Treasury Bill (%) 3 months 6 months 12 months AWPLR Excess Liquidity (LKR 'bn) Inflation (%) Mar-13 as at 30.04.2013 YoY Change Annual Avg Week ending 03.05.2013 9.20 11.33 13.45 -18.52 7.5 8.8 10.22

6000 5900

Index

5800 5700 5600 5500

ASPI
3380 3360 3340 3320 3300 3280 3260 3240 3220

Turnover LKR ('mn)

2,500 2,000 1,500

200.0

Volume ('mn)

150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

Index

1,000 500
0

S&P SL20

Turnover

Volume

Today All Share Price Index S&P SL20 Index Turnover (LKR mn) Turnover (USD mn) Volume (mn shares) Traded Entities Market Capitalization (LKR bn) Foreign Purchases (LKR mn) Foreign Sales (LKR mn) Net Foreign Inflow (LKR mn) Market PER (X) Market PBV (X) Market Dividend Yield SECTOR INDICES Banks, Finance & Insurance Beverage, Food & Tobacco Construction & Engineering Diversified Healthcare Hotels & Travels Land & Property Manufacturing Plantation Telecom 5,953.2 3,365.8 876.0 6.9 32.2 238 2,280.8 204.0 118.2 85.8 16.1 2.2 2.3 Today 13,585.7 16,737.2 2,735.3 1,933.5 680.0 3,475.9 560.4 2,797.0 801.9 171.2

Pre Day 5,967.6 3,363.1 845.8 6.7 65.3 248 2,286.3 158.9 44.0 114.9 16.1 2.2 2.3 Pre Day 13,628.9 16,795.1 2,766.3 1,942.3 685.2 3,477.8 567.8 2,773.8 804.4 171.1

Change % -0.24% q 0.08% p 3.56% 3.56% -50.69% -4.03% -0.24% 28.37% 168.74% -25.36% -0.24% -0.24% 0.00% % Change -0.32% -0.34% -1.12% -0.45% -0.75% -0.06% -1.31% 0.84% -0.31% 0.06% q q q q q q q p q p

Last Week 5,883.5 3,344.9 708.5 5.6 30.3 246 2,254.1 255.6 31.4 224.1 15.9 2.2 2.3 Last Week 13,507.7 16,523.5 2,710.0 1,925.5 671.6 3,400.4 535.4 2,663.9 797.2 170.1

% WoW Change 1.18% 0.63% 23.63% 23.63% 6.30% -3.25% 1.18% -20.16% 276.25% -61.72% 1.18% 1.19% 0.00% % WoW Change 0.58% 1.29% 0.93% 0.42% 1.26% 2.22% 4.66% 5.00% 0.59% 0.65% Page | 2.

Softlogic Equity Research

High Index Calibre USD350 Mn

Company
JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS CEYLON TOBACCO CARSON CUMBERBATCH NESTLE LANKA SRI LANKA TELECOM COMMERCIAL BANK [V] BUKIT DARAH DIALOG AXIATA HNB [V] AITKEN SPENCE DISTILLERIES LOLC CARGILLS DFCC BANK SAMPATH BANK ASIAN HOTELS & PROPERTIES

% of Mkt Cap 9.4% 6.6% 3.8% 4.2% 3.4% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4%

Volume 254,036 28,549 118 13,024 16,362 1,029,591 52 33,222 26,244 202 28,800 90,716 4,607 34,324 38,571 22

Turnover LKR ('000) 63,496.56 23,552.83 52.52 23,448.75 689.64 117,916.08 36.95 311.18 4,297.51 24.85 4,888.06 5,215.73 708.05 4,906.92 8,332.02 1.52

Turnover USD ('000) 500.76 185.75 0.41 184.93 5.44 929.93 0.29 2.45 33.89 0.20 38.55 41.13 5.58 38.70 65.71 0.01

Intraday Intraday High (LKR) Low (LKR) 250.00 829.00 450.00 1,820.00 43.00 115.00 715.00 9.40 165.00 124.00 170.00 57.90 154.00 143.30 216.90 69.90 249.50 800.10 445.00 1,791.00 42.00 114.00 710.00 9.30 162.00 122.00 168.30 56.20 153.00 142.00 216.00 69.10

Close 250.00 806.80 445.50 1,800.50 42.40 114.80 710.00 9.40 162.80 122.00 170.00 57.50 154.00 143.00 216.00 69.90

Price Gainers
Company
S M B LEASING [X] ABANS FINANCIAL PRINTCARE PLC LANKA IOC ASCOT HOLDINGS

Price Losers
Today 0.50 33.50 30.00 24.20 167.00 Change + 0.10 + 4.70 + 3.90 + 1.90 + 12.90 % Change Company 25.00% 16.32% 14.94% 8.52% 8.37%
HUNAS FALLS GESTETNER NATION LANKA [W 0021] G S FINANCE CEYLON LEATHER [W 0013]

Today 51.70 157.00 1.40 700.00 4.70

Change - 9.30 - 14.00 - 0.10 - 49.90 - 0.30

% Change -15.25% -8.19% -6.67% -6.65% -6.00%

Top 05 Performers for the Day

Company
COLOMBO LAND COMMERCIAL BANK NAT. DEV. BANK JKH TOKYO CEMENT

Today 50.40 114.80 169.00 250.00 24.00

Pre Day 52.70 114.50 169.30 249.90 25.10

% Change -4.36% 0.26% -0.18% 0.04% -4.38%

Volume (mn) 4.79 1.03 0.43 0.25 1.13

Contribution to Total T/O 11.4% 5.2% 3.2% 2.8% 1.2%

Turnover (LKR) 260,886,525 117,916,078 72,312,509 63,496,558 27,123,711

Most Active
Company
COLOMBO LAND S M B LEASING TOUCHWOOD PC HOUSE[RIGHTS] CIFL

Today 50.40 1.00 7.00 0.10 2.70

Pre Day 52.70 1.00 7.30 0.20 2.70

% Change -4.36% 0.00% -4.11% -50.00% 0.00%

Volume (mn) 4.79 2.07 2.00 1.53 1.47

Contribution to Total T/O 11.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2%

Turnover (LKR) 260,886,525 2,068,354 14,058,821 209,176 3,960,629

Softlogic Equity Research

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Currency Board
Local - Indicative Rate against LKR
Currency Australia China EU India Japan Malaysia Russia Saudi Arabia Singapore Switzerland Thailand UK USA Dollar Yuan Euro Rupee Yen Ringgit Rouble Riyal Dollar Franc Baht Pound Dollar Indicative Rate 30.04.2013 131.17 20.57 166.03 2.34 1.29 41.83 4.09 33.81 102.77 135.25 4.32 196.35 126.80

Announcements
Dividends
Company DPS (LKR) XD Date 10-05-2013 30-05-2013 0 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00
Proportion 0 XR Date

Payment Date 21-05-2013 07-06-2013 1/0/1900 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00
Renunciation

7.70 Ceylon Tobacco Company PLC 2.00 Commercial Development Company PLC 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0
Company Description

Rights Issues / Scrip Dividend / Sub division / Capitalization

No Announcements 0 0 0 0 0 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900

Source: www.cbsl.gov.lk

Global Markets
Index AMERICA Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 Index EUROPE EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR FTSE 100 Index ASIA Nikkei 225 Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
* Time is as at ET

Value 14,818.8 1,593.6 2,711.3 6,451.2 13,860.9 22,737.0

Change 106.2 11.4 -6.1 -6.8 -23.3 156.2

Change % 0.72% p 0.72% p -0.24% q -0.10% q -0.17% q 0.69% p

Time* 0-Jan 29-Apr 06:42 06:42 02:28 04:01

Source: www.bloomberg.com

Commodity Markets
Commodity ENERGY Crude Oil (Brent) Crude Oil (WTI) AGRICULTURE ICE Cotton #2 CBOT Wheat METALS COMEX Gold COMEX Silver COMEX Copper
* Time is as at ET

Units USD/bbl. USD/bbl. USd/lb. USd/bu. USD/t oz. USD/t oz. USd/lb.

Price 103.78 94.34 86.11 716.75 1,469.40 24.38 322.30

Change -0.03 -0.16 0.37 0.25 2.00 0.21 -0.35

Change % -0.03% q -0.17% q 0.43% p 0.03% p 0.14% p 0.89% p -0.11% q

Time* 06:48 06:49 06:48 06:48 00:01 06:48 06:49

Source: www.bloomberg.com

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CSE Announcements
Aitken Spence [SPEN:LKR122.0]: Aitken Spence entered into an agreement with Fiji Ports Corporation Limited, an entity wholly owned by the government of the Republic of Fiji to manage the cargo handling activities in the Ports of Suva and Lautoka on a concession period of 15 years. Aitken Spence will acquire a majority stake in Ports Terminal Ltd., a subsidiary of Fiji Ports Corporation Limited which will manage the operations. The investment of approximately FJD 10.5 million will be subject to the approval of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and any other relevant regulatory authorities. Dealings by Directors
Company Pan Asia Banking Coporation [PABC: LKR21.0] Name Mr. W.D.N. H. Perera Relationship Director Transaction Quantity Price (LKR) Purchase 1,140,112 20.8-21.0 Date 29.04.13

Local News
Sri Lanka's inflation eases to 6.4% in April: Inflation in Sri Lanka's capital Colombo rose 6.5% in April 2013, from a year earlier, easing down from 7.5% in March, the state statistics office said. The Colombo Consumer Price Index fell 0.5% or 0.8 points during the month to 170 points during the month helped by a 1.4% fall in the food component of the index. Non-foods rose 0.4%. Sri Lanka's central bank has expected the inflation to ease off from March, as the base effect of currency depreciation in early 2012 wore off. Sri Lanka's consumer price index is now unchanged from the January level of 170 points. Past experience has shown that that it is normal in Sri Lanka for inflation to ease. The index can even fall in absolute terms with prudent Central Bank policies which allow exchange rate appreciation. (Sri Lanka inflation spike could be one-off: IMF) [Source: www.lbo.lk] China overtakes Japan as Sri Lanka's top tourist market in East Asia: China has overtaken Japan as Sri Lanka's top tourist market in East Asia generating more tourists from around September 2012, official data show. In February 2013, arrivals from China rose 57.9% to 6,145 compared to a growth of 12.2% to 4,724 by Japan. Japan has been Sri Lanka's top generating market in East Asia in the past, but from around September 2012 China has tended to generate more tourists than Japan. In the six months to February 2013 China generated 17,978 arrivals compared to 14,938 from Japan. In the 12 months to Japan Chinese arrivals rose 58% to 25,781 compared to rise of 26.7% to 26,085 in Japan. Sri Lanka is targeting 60,000 visitors from China, or an ambitious 100% plus increase in 2013 amid an overall target of 1.2 mn tourists which is a 20% expected annual increase. [Source: www.lbo.lk] Sri Lanka's Hemas group to grow with acquisitions: Sri Lanka's Hemas Holdings [HHL: LKR28.8] said it had hired a capitalist market specialist to advise on mergers and acquisitions as part of a growth strategy. Steven Enderby, who has spent 12 year in India and 5 in Sri Lanka working for Actis Capital, an emerging market fund has been hired as advisor to chief executive on mergers acquisitions and growth, the Hemas group said. "The new appointment is in line with the companys strategy to accelerate the pace of growth through M&A," the group said in a statement. "Steven will be leading the business development team of Hemas as the company looks to deepen its market leading presence in personal care and healthcare, and grow significantly in leisure, transportation, power and hospitals." [Source: www.lbo.lk] Sri Lanka's BB- sovereign rating confirmed: Fitch: Sri Lanka's 'BB-' sovereign rating has been confirmed with a stable outlook by Fitch on tighter monetary policy and corrective measures to stem balance of payments troubles but warned of rising foreign debt. "Persistence with tighter monetary and fiscal policies should help improve Sri Lanka's external liquidity position," Fitch Ratings said. Fitch said Sri Lanka's rating balances the country's resilient growth performance, healthy level of human development and strong payment record against weakness in fiscal and external balances. Fitch also warned against rising foreign loan repayments. Softlogic Equity Research Page | 5
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Sri Lanka's external debt repayments remained "quite heavy" Fitch said with USD1.9 bn dollars of debt projected to mature from 2013 to 2015 compared to USD1.3 bn dollars in 2012. "This may not only limit Sri Lanka's ability to rebuild foreign exchange reserves to a much higher level, but it also means that the country's external finances will remain vulnerable to any spike in global risk aversion," the rating agency said. [Source: www.lbo.lk] Sri Lanka may reduce electricity tariff increase: Sri Lanka may moderate an increase in electricity tariff imposed from April 2013 amid growing opposition, a media reports said. Sri Lanka's privately owned The Daily Mirror newspaper quoted power ministry secretary M M C Ferdinando as saying there may be possibility of cutting the tariffs. The Lankadeepa newspaper said there was speculation of a 20% reduction in the increase for users below 150 units. The report said President Mahinda Rajapaksa was unhappy at the increase amid rising opposition. Sri Lanka has an established tariff methodology, which has been observed in the breach, but following a public hearing the island's power regulator did not make any changes to the final proposed tariffs of the power utility as expected. Opposition legislator Harsha de Silva slammed the regulator accusing it of bowing to pressure by agreeing to meet the President and key officials on the eve of the tariff decision, saying users below 48 units who were 'electricity poor' should be insulated. [Source: www.lbo.lk] IMF forecasts stable growth in Sri Lanka: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday predicted broadly stable growth for Sri Lanka in the next two years with improvement in GDP pinned at a 6% range. Releasing the Asia Pacific Regions Economic Outlook, the IMF projects Lankan economy to grow by 6.3% this year and 6.7% in 2014. The growth forecast for this year is 0.5 lower than that was predicted in IMFs October 2012 World Economic Outlook. For 2014, it is 0.3 higher than the October 2012 assessment. The estimate of 6.3% for 2013 is far below Central Banks forecast of 7.5%. In Sri Lanka, growth is expected to remain broadly stable, as continued macroeconomic stabilisation should restrain domestic demand, while export growth is projected to remain tepid, the IMF said. Latest forecast also puts Sri Lankas growth above the average of South Asia, the GDP of which is estimated to grow by 5.7% in 2013 and 6.3% next year. Noting that 2012s growth was 6.4%, the IMF said in Sri Lanka, tighter policies in early 2012 to rein in credit and import growth contributed to slowing activity last year. [Source: www.ft.lk]

Global News
Euro-Area 1.2% Inflation Adds Pressure for ECB Rate Cut: Economy: Euro-area inflation at a three-year low and record unemployment increased pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates later this week to spur lending and growth. The annual inflation rate dipped to 1.2% in April, the lowest since February 2010, from 1.7% month earlier, the European Unions statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The rate has been below the ECBs 2% ceiling since February. The March jobless rate advanced to 12.1%, the highest since the data series began in 1995. The ECBs Governing Council will cut its benchmark rate to a record low 0.50% on May 2 from 0.75%, according to the median of 70 economists estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. If it werent for the ECBs usual reluctance to make large changes, there would be a strong case to cut by 50 basis points, and I think the likelihood is perhaps higher than the market expects, Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Credit Agricole SA (ACA), said by telephone from Paris. Its probably around 20%, because with inflation that low its really the best time to do such things and maximize the impact on the market. [Source: www.bloomberg.com] Spain's economy contracts for seventh consecutive quarter: Spain's economy shrank for a seventh consecutive quarter between January and March as domestic demand slumped. The country's gross domestic product fell by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter, according to the National Statistics Institute. On an annual basis, Spain's economy shrank 2% in the quarter - the worst fall since the end of 2011. Last week, Spain's government cut its forecast for 2013, saying it now expected the economy to shrink by 1.3%. Its previous estimate had put the rate of contraction at 0.5%. "We don't see Spain returning to growth until sometime next year," said Nomura analyst Silvio Peruzzo. Spain has struggled since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 when its property bubble burst. As a result banks were left holding hundreds of billions of euros in bad debts, eventually needing government bailouts to survive. [Source: www.bbc.co.uk] Softlogic Equity Research Page | 6
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