Professional Documents
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Indian Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
3QFY13 1,143 748 331 % chg (qoq) (3.2) (24.5) (11.6) 4QFY12 1,083 797 345 % chg (yoy) 2.3 (29.2) (15.4)
`160 `186
12 months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 4QFY2013, Indian Bank reported a subdued performance, both on operating as well as on the asset quality front. Surge in employee expenses (more than double on a yoy basis, on account of higher provisioning for pension and other employee benefits), resulted in 69.4% yoy increase in operating expenses and 29.2% yoy decline in pre-provisioning profits. However, aided by higher tax write-backs (of `203cr during the quarter, as against a tax write-back of `110cr in 4QFY2012) the decline in earnings was capped at 15.4%. NIMs lower qoq; Asset quality pressures continue: During 4QFY2013, the banks advances grew at a healthy pace of 17.0% yoy (up 6.8% qoq). Within advances, growth in the agriculture and retail book was robust at 27.3% and 17.9% respectively, while the corporate book grew moderate by 10.1% yoy. Growth in deposits also came in healthy at 17.5% yoy (5.1% qoq), while the low-cost CASA franchise grew at a modest pace of 6.2% yoy (2.3% qoq) and hence, the CASA ratio for the bank dipped by 295bp yoy (76bp qoq) to 27.6%. Reported NIMs for the bank declined by 19bp qoq to 2.9%, on back of 52bp decline in yield on advances to 10.6%. The banks non-interest income (excl treasury) grew at a healthy pace of 19.4% yoy to `334cr. Growth in fee income was moderate at 12.8% yoy, while recoveries from written off accounts grew strongly by 53.3% yoy to `71cr. The bank continued to witness asset quality pressures during the quarter, as slippages remained elevated at ~`1,300cr (annualized slippage ratio of 5.8%) as against ~`1,400cr in 3QFY2013. Better recoveries/upgrades during the quarter(at `751cr compared to `190cr in 3QFY2013), amidst elevated slippages, aided the bank to contain the sequential increase in Gross and Net NPA levels to 12.1% and 11.3% respectively. While the gross NPA ratio increased by 15bp sequentially to 3.3%, the increase in the net NPA ratio was 9bp to 2.3%. The banks PCR remained stable at 60.1%. During the quarter, the bank restructured advances worth `1,200cr, thereby taking its restructured book (stated borrower wise, after upgrading satisfactorily performing accounts) to `9,704cr. Going ahead, the restructuring pipeline for the bank under CDR stands at `1,100cr Outlook and valuation: The stock currently trades at 0.6x FY2015E ABV, below its eight-year trading range (0.8x-1.3x) and median of 1.0x. Although, we remain cautious on the banks asset quality, recent underperformance of the stock, in our view, over-discounts the asset quality concerns. Hence, we recommend a Buy rating on the stock, with a target price of `186.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 80.0 6.3 8.0 5.7
3m 3.0
1yr 22.8
3yr 18.0
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
FY2012 4,418 9.5 1,747 1.9 3.5 39.6 4.0 0.8 1.3 20.4
FY2013 4,524 2.4 1,581 (9.5) 3.1 35.7 4.5 0.7 1.0 16.1
FY2014E 4,981 10.1 1,637 3.5 3.0 37.0 4.3 0.6 0.9 14.8
FY2015E 5,696 14.4 1,862 13.8 3.0 42.2 3.8 0.6 1.0 15.1
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
Akshay Narang
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6829 akshay.narang@angelbroking.com
Harshal Patkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 harshal.patkar@angelbroking.com
3QFY13 3,546 2,685 845 17 2,403 1,143 240 206 167 34 39 1,384 636 445 191 748 412 336 6 331 1.8
% chg (qoq) 0.4 0.6 0.2 (11.1) 2.1 (3.2) 91.7 62.0 57.6 271.7 81.0 13.3 57.9 75.6 16.5 (24.5) 15.5 (73.6) (3,549.6) (11.6) (23010)bp
4QFY12 3,191 2,414 773 5 2,108 1,083 307 280 234 27 46 1,390 592 386 206 797 562 235 (110) 345 (46.7)
% chg (yoy) 11.6 11.9 9.6 206.9 16.4 2.3 50.0 19.4 12.8 364.0 53.3 12.8 69.4 102.0 8.1 (29.2) (15.4) (62.2) 84.7 (15.4) (18162)bp
FY13 13,893 10,607 3,238 48 9,368 4,524 1,287 1,074 880 213 195 5,811 2,751 1,974 777 3,060 1,235 1,825 245 1,580 13.4
FY12 12,231 9,424 2,790 17 7,813 4,418 1,180 1,066 933 114 133 5,598 2,187 1,484 703 3,411 1,195 2,216 469 1,747 21.1
% chg 13.6 12.6 16.1 179.4 19.9 2.4 9.1 0.7 (5.7) 87.5 46.5 3.8 25.8 33.0 10.5 (10.3) 3.3 (17.6) (47.7) (9.6) (772)bp
3,562 2,700 847 15 2,455 1,107 460 334 263 126 71 1,568 1,003 781 222 565 476 89 (203) 292 (228.3)
3QFY13 98,945 135,077 73.3 38,268 28.3 13.1 10.8 7.1 11.1 3.1 45.9 3,180 3.2 2,142 2.2 61.2 6.3
% chg (qoq) 6.8 5.1 116bp 2.3 (76)bp 1bp 13bp (7)bp (52)bp (19)bp 1806bp 12.1 15bp 11.3 9bp (109)bp (50)bp
4QFY12 90,324 120,804 74.8 36,866 30.5 13.5 11.1 6.8 10.9 3.2 42.6 1,851 2.0 1,197 1.3 70.1 5.5
% chg (yoy) 17.0 17.5 (36)bp 6.2 (295)bp (39)bp (25)bp 28bp (29)bp (28)bp 2137bp 92.6 130bp 99.2 93bp (999)bp 26bp
105,643 141,980 74.4 39,138 27.6 13.1 10.9 7.1 10.6 2.9 64.0 3,565 3.3 2,384 2.3 60.1 5.8
73.9
73.3 72.4
15.0 10.0
27.0
20.0 14.2
13.8 15.0
10.8 12.9
13.3 13.5
17.0 17.5
30.5
29.3
28.3
5.0
-
26.0
70.0
27.6
29.0
10.90
10.61
3.60 3.20
2.80
10.00
8.00
2.40 2.00
4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13
6.00
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
NPA coverage (%, RHS) 80.0 61.2 60.1 60.0 40.0 20.0 -
2.0 1.3
1.7 1.0
2.1 1.3
3.2 2.2
3.3 2.3
5.5
3.3
6.3
4QFY12
1QFY13
1.0
2QFY13
3QFY13
3QFY14
70.0 60.0
50.0
80.0 60.0
40.0
4.9
2.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
1.5 1.0
1.0
42.6
222
45.9 38.9
369 166
38.9
1.7
40.0
1.5
1.5
1.6
206
191
197
30.0 20.0
42.6
38.9
38.9
64.0
45.9
20.0
386
379
445
781
150 -
10.0
0.5
Investment arguments
Indian Bank's performance has broadly been positive and balanced since its listing in 2007, leading to a gradual improvement in the quality of earnings.
Investment concerns
Relatively high yields
A larger portion of SME and mid-corporate loans has contributed to the banks relatively high yield on advances. This has supported its NIM, which in FY2012 was higher than even larger banks having ~40% CASA deposits vs. Indian Banks ~30%. Past experience shows that banks that delivered high NIMs on the back of high yields later paid the price for the higher risk taken in the form of higher NPAs in subsequent years. The bank has felt the heat on the asset-quality front in the
May 15, 2013
past one year, with significant increase in slippages and higher restructuring. Hence, we remain cautious on the banks asset quality and NIM outlook as in case of other banks with unsustainably high yields.
Earlier estimates FY2014E 15.0 13.0 28.9 3.1 3.7 15.0 5.0 2.5 67.5 FY2015E 15.0 13.0 28.9 3.1 7.5 10.0 5.0 2.4 70.0
Revised estimates FY2014E 15.0 13.0 26.9 3.0 (6.4) 5.0 5.0 2.5 62.5 FY2015E 15.0 13.0 26.9 3.0 6.5 3.0 3.0 2.4 65.0
701 (19.6)
Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), # Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Indian Bank is a Chennai-based mid-sized public sector bank, with 2,089 branches (1418 ultra small branches) and a balance sheet size of ~`1.6lakh cr. Around two-thirds of the bank's branches are spread across the southern states with majority being in the parent state of Tamil Nadu.
Ratio Analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs 0.8 0.2 1.1 0.4 93.6 35.1 154.7 6.5 4.6 1.0 4.1 3.4 0.4 3.0 0.4 3.4 1.0 4.4 1.9 2.5 0.9 1.7 15.3 25.6 1.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 84.3 38.8 184.4 7.5 4.1 0.9 4.7 3.6 0.6 3.0 0.1 3.2 0.9 4.1 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.5 15.3 23.5 2.0 1.3 2.5 0.6 70.1 39.6 210.4 7.5 4.0 0.8 4.7 3.4 0.9 2.4 0.1 2.5 0.9 3.4 1.7 1.7 0.4 1.3 15.3 20.4 3.3 2.3 3.8 0.5 60.1 35.7 221.5 6.6 4.5 0.7 4.1 3.0 0.8 2.2 0.1 2.2 0.8 3.0 1.8 1.2 0.2 1.0 15.5 16.1 3.9 2.2 2.5 0.5 62.5 37.0 250.6 7.0 4.3 0.6 4.4 2.9 0.6 2.3 0.0 2.4 0.7 3.0 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.9 15.7 14.8 4.4 2.1 2.4 0.5 65.0 42.2 284.6 8.0 3.8 0.6 5.0 2.9 0.6 2.3 0.0 2.4 0.6 3.0 1.5 1.4 0.5 1.0 15.8 15.1 32.2 70.4 12.7 11.1 30.9 71.1 13.6 11.0 30.6 74.8 13.5 11.1 27.6 74.4 12.9 10.9 26.9 75.7 12.7 10.8 26.9 77.1 12.4 10.7 3.5 38.6 1.7 25.6 3.7 36.9 1.5 23.5 3.5 38.7 1.3 20.4 3.1 47.3 1.0 16.1 3.0 46.7 0.9 14.8 3.0 42.6 1.0 15.1 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Slippages
Loan loss prov. /avg. assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage (x) RoE
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Indian Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11