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HARYARD BIACK SFA SFCURI1Y PRDCRAH-2009
l A l \ A l D
LACl SLA
S L C l l l 1 Y l l O C l A N
2009
3BEV%6%A6
1I%3PNBOJB
Abstract
7
/c ucr di:uc |/c dc|c/-
omcn| roc:| oj |/c
mujor u ic/inc rojc:|
/unncd |o /in/ luroc |o |/c (uiun
rcion (^u|u::o und ou|/ |rcum)
und |o nor|/uc|crn i|criu und |/c
|urcn| cu (^ord |rcum) in /i/| oj
u rc:cn| 'umc-:/uncr' 7/c ocn-
in oj |/c (cn|ru/ 1iu-(/inu ic-
/inc, u/i:/ i|c 7ur/mcni|un u mujor cxor| ou|/c|
o|/cr |/un kuiu. 7/c unu/yi indi:u|c |/u| ^ord
|rcum :on|ru:|ion uor/ ui// |ur| in rin 2010,
|/ou/ |/c rojc:| /u no dc|c/ocd u/y jic/d yc| jor
i| c:ond /uc, |/u| ^u|u::o (uiun roc:|
urc |i// un:cr|uin, und |/u| ou|/ |rcum /u u/uuy
|ccn u mcrc 'ucr |icr,' :on:ci|cd |o undcrminc
^u|u::o. |cidc, |/c ucr uruc |/u|, u/on ui|/
|^(, |/c romiin rcu/| oj 'un:on|cn|ionu/ u'
dc|c/omcn| in lunury /ou |/u| luroc c:uri|y
oj u/y i no| cx/uu|cd |y |/c ic/inc umc.
1. Introduction. 1hc FU-Russia cncrgy
intcrdcpcndcncc
1hc Ll currcntly lmpcrts +hcut 4O cl lts g+s
lrcm lussl+, + llgurc whlch ls cxpcctcd tc rlsc tc
oO hy 2OO. 1hls cncrgy dcpcndcncy turncd lntc
puhllc ccnccrn durlng thc lussc-lkr+lnl+n g+s
w+r cl ]+nu+ry 2OO9, whlch lclt p+rts cl scuthc+st-
crn Lurcpc ln thc ccld lcr twc wccks ln thc mlddlc
cl thc wlntcr. C+zprcm, thc mcncpcllst cxpcrtcr
cwncd 51 hy thc lussl+n st+tc,
whlch prcduccs +rcund 19.4 cl
thc wcrld's tct+l cutput cl n+tur+l
g+s, sclls twc thlrds cl lts g+s tc Ll
ccuntrlcs. ln 2OOo, lcr lnst+ncc,
C+zprcm's g+s s+lcs tc Lurcpc
rc+chcd 1o1.5 hllllcn cuhlc mctcrs
(hcm), cxpcrts tc thc ClS +nd thc
+ltlc St+tcs +mcuntcd tc 1O1 hmc,
whllc thc lussl+n dcmcstlc m+rkct
rccclvcd 1o hcm, cr +hcut 54.o
(Nltrcv+, 2OO8. 2). 1hc lussl+n
m+rkct prlcc ls ccnsldcr+hly lcwcr
th+n wh+t Ll ccuntrlcs p+y cn
+vcr+gc. As +hcut twc thlrds cl
lussl+'s cxpcrt c+rnlngs ccmc lrcm
cll +nd g+s, Lurcpc ls hy l+r thc l+rgcst +nd mcst
prcllt+hlc m+rkct lcr lussl+n cncrgy s+lcs.
1hus, +pp+rcntly, thc cqu+tlcn cl cncrgy lntcrdc-
pcndcncc hctwccn Lurcpc +nd lussl+ ls slmplc. thc
wcrld's hlggcst g+s m+rkct mccts thc wcrld's l+rgcst
g+s prcduccr, +nd c+ch cl thcm h+s wh+t thc cthcr
cnc nccds. Yct thc rc+l plcturc ls much mcrc ccmpll-
c+tcd. ln l+ct, thc sltu+tlcn ls structur+lly dlss+tlsly-
lng lcr hcth p+rts.
On thc cnc h+nd, thc Ll mcmhcr-st+tcs
dcspltc lmpcrt+nt dlllcrcnccs +mcng thcm ln thclr
dcgrccs cl dcpcndcncc cn lussl+n g+s +nd thc
lntcnslty cl thclr rcl+tlcns wlth Ncsccw (1) h+vc
grcwn ccnccrncd +hcut C+zprcm's c+p+clty tc
prcducc sulllclcnt n+tur+l g+s lcr thc dcmcstlc
m+rkct +nd thc cxpcrt chllg+tlcns. 1hcsc wcrrlcs
typlc+lly dr+w cn thc lcllcwlng klnd cl ccnsldcr-
+tlcns. lussl+'s cncrgy prcductlcn rcm+lns lmpcr-
llcd hy lnclllclcncy, undcrlnvcstmcnt, pclltlclz+-
tlcn, hlgh t+xcs, +nd l+lllng prlccs nct tc mcntlcn
thc lncrc+slngly urgcnt sc+rch lcr w+ys cl mcvlng
hcycnd + c+rhcn-h+scd cccncmy (N+nkcll, 2OO9.
Furasian cncrgy sccurity.
rcccnt trcnds in thc Furopcan gamc
ot natural gas projccts
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9
HARYARD BIACK SFA SFCURI1Y PRDCRAH-2009
l A l \ A l D
LACl SLA
S L C l l l 1 Y l l O C l A N
2009
8). csldcs, thc ncwly cntcrcd mcmhcrs cl thc
lnlcn h+vc +pprchcnslcns +hcut thc pcsslhlllty
th+t lussl+ uscs cncrgy +s + mc+ns cl pclltlc+l cccr-
clcn. Ag+ln, thc ]+nu+ry 2OO9 g+s crlsls g+lv+nlzcd
thc Lurcpc+n dctcrmln+tlcn tc rcducc th+t lcvcl cl
dcpcndcncc, thcugh thls h+s nct tr+nsl+tcd lntc
+nythlng llkc + ccmmcn, hrc+d +nd cchcrcnt
Ll-lcvcl +pprc+ch tc cncrgy sccurlty. l+thcr, +
lccsc ccnscnsus h+s (rc-)cmcrgcd +mcng thc
Lurcpc+n lnstltutlcn+l +nd huslncss +ctcrs cl thc
cncrgy g+mc +hcut dcvclcplng rcncw+hlc cncrgy
scurccs +nd +hcut dlvcrsllylng thc scurccs cl sup-
ply +nd dcllvcry rcutcs lcr lmpcrtcd hydrcc+rhcns.
Ccnccrnlng n+tur+l g+s, thc sccurlty cl supply
ln|unctlcn ls tc +chlcvc +t lc+st + mcdcr+tc lcvcl cl
gccgr+phlc+l dlvcrslllc+tlcn +w+y lrcm thc lussl+n
scurccs +nd plpcllncs. ln l+ct, hcwcvcr, +s wlll hc
sccn hclcw, dlllcrcnccs ln lntcrcsts +nd prlcrltlcs
+mcng lndlvldu+l Ll mcmhcr-st+tcs +nd lnllucnt
ncn-st+tc +ctcrs l.c., hlg Lurcpc+n cncrgy ccmp+-
nlcs wlth lucr+tlvc ccntr+cts wlth C+zprcm (2)
rcsult ln slcw prcgrcss tcw+rd +n cllcctlvc Lurcpc+n
cncrgy pcllcy, wlth hcslt+nt, suhcptlm+l +nd scmc-
tlmcs mutu+lly undcrmlnlng +ctlcns.
Ap+rt lrcm dlvcrslllc+tlcn, + p+r+llcl tr+ck cl Ll's
cncrgy sccurlty cught tc ccnslst ln thc gr+du+l lntc-
gr+tlcn cl lts g+s +nd clcctrlclty, lcr th+t m+ttcr
m+rkct. 1hc lntcrccnncctlvlty cl thc n+tlcn+l nct-
wcrks wculd cllcr thc mc+ns lcr cthcr Ll st+tcs tc
hclp ln tlmcs cl crlsls. csldcs, l+rgcr rcglcn+l m+r-
kcts +rc mcrc clllclcnt ln +ttr+ctlng lnvcstmcnt +nd
ln h+rg+lnlng wlth cxtcrn+l suppllcrs. A prcmlslng
cx+mplc ls thc Ncw Lurcpc+n 1r+nsmlsslcn Systcm
(NL1S), + lung+rl+n lnltl+tlvc cl 2OO cl scttlng up
+ rcglcn+l nctwcrk ln scuthc+stcrn Lurcpc. Alsc
lmpcrt+nt ls thc crc+tlcn cl thc Agcncy lcr thc
Cccpcr+tlcn cl Lncrgy lcgul+tcrs (ACLl), hcstcd hy
L|uhl|+n+, +s + mc+ns cl cxtcndlng + ccmmcn rcgu-
l+tcry lr+mcwcrk whlch wculd +llcw cccrdln+tlcn
+t thc Ll lcvcl. lndcuhtcdly, ACLl's clllclcncy wlll
dcpcnd cn lts +hlllty tc cvcrrulc n+tlcn+l rcgul+tcrs
cn lssucs ccnncctcd wlth sccurlty cl supply +nd thc
cpcr+tlcn cl crcss-hcrdcr tr+nsmlsslcn systcms
(N+nkcll, 2OOO. 28).
On thc cthcr h+nd, ll thc Ll st+tcs strlvc tc
dlvcrslly +w+y lrcm lussl+, thcn lt ls n+tur+l th+t
C+zprcm +lsc lcck lcr w+ys cl dlvcrsllylng +w+y
lrcm Lurcpc. lndccd, C+zprcm prlcrltlzcs thc
dcvclcpmcnt cl lts L+st Slhcrl+n +nd l+r- c+stcrn
hydrcc+rhcn llclds, ln crdcr tc cxp+nd prcscncc ln
thc Asl+n m+rkct +nd tc supply lts cwn l+r L+st
prcvlnccs. Slncc 2OO9, lussl+ h+s hcccmc + pl+ycr
cn thc glch+l llqucllcd n+tur+l g+s (LNC) m+rkct,
wlth thc cpcnlng cl thc LNC tcrmln+l cn S+kh+lln
lsl+nd, lrcm whlch lussl+ h+s st+rtcd cxpcrtlng tc
]+p+n +nd Scuth lcrc+. Ncncthclcss, Lurcpc ls +nd
ls llkcly tc rcm+ln lussl+'s kcy m+rkct lcr + lcng
tlmc tc ccmc.
Ncsccw h+s rcscntcd thc c+p+clty cl scmc tr+n-
slt st+tcs nct+hly lkr+lnc +nd cl+rus tc hlcck
lts L+st-Vcst tr+nspcrt cl g+s. Ccnscqucntly, lt +lms
hcth +t t+klng cvcr thc ccntrcl cl thcsc ccuntrlcs'
plpcllnc systcms, (,) +nd +t hulldlng clrcumvcntlng
plpcllncs hc lt ln cxccss c+p+cltlcs th+t wculd
prcvldc +ltcrn+tlvc rcutcs. ut thc shccr slzc +nd
dlrcctncss cl thc lkr+lnl+n plpcllncs, plus thc hugc
stcr+gc c+p+cltlcs th+t +cccmp+ny thcm, m+kc lt
prch+hlc th+t mcst cl thc lussl+n g+s wlll kccp
llcwlng wcstw+rds thrcugh lkr+lnc.
cth thc Ll ccuntrlcs +nd lussl+ suppcrt thc
ccnstructlcn cl ncw plpcllncs, yct th+t suppcrt ls
uncvcnly +llcc+tcd tc dlllcrcnt prc|ccts. Scmc cl
thc Ll mcmhcr-st+tcs +rc lntcrcstcd ln scclng +
dlmlnlshcd lussl+n pclltlc+l lcvcr+gc ln thc cncrgy
tr+dc +nd ln +vcldlng + mcncpcllstlc prlclng sys-
tcm hcncc thcy l+vcr + ncn-lussl+n prc|cct.
Othcrs wculd |ust t+kc ln +s much g+s +s pcsslhlc
rcg+rdlcss cl hcw lt rc+chcs thcm, +nd thcrclcrc
suhscrlhc tc +ll plpcllnc prc|ccts th+t +rc cccncml-
c+lly vl+hlc lussl+n cr ncn-lussl+n. 1hc Vcstcrn-
h+ckcd prc|cct th+t wculd hrlng ncn-lussl+n g+s
tc Lurcpc thrcugh ncn-lussl+n tcrrltcry hc+rs thc
n+mc cl ^u|u::o. As wc sh+ll scc ln scctlcn ,
N+huccc h+s hccn lntcgr+tcd ln Ll's ccnccpt cl
thc ou|/crn (orridor cl hydrcc+rhcns tr+nspcrt
lrcm thc C+spl+n rcglcn tc Ccntr+l Lurcpc.
BIDCRAPHY
3BEV%6%A6
i un uo:iu|c rojcor in |/c |/i/oo/y lcur|mcn|
oj |/c |u:/urc| /ni|cri|y. lc |cu:/c ln|crnu|ionu/
kc/u|ion 7/cory, l|/i: oj ln|crnu|ionu/ kc/u|ion, und
1nu/yi oj ln|crnu|ionu/ (onj/i:|. lc i u/o |/c lcud
oj |/c kccur:/ lcur|mcn| oj |/c komuniun li/omu|i:
ln|i|u|c. ln /i o/i:y-oricn|cd rccur:/, /c jo:uc on
luruiun cncry c:uri|y und 7run-1|/un|i: rc/u|ion.
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HARYARD BIACK SFA SFCURI1Y PRDCRAH-2009
l A l \ A l D
LACl SLA
S L C l l l 1 Y l l O C l A N
2009
ln lts turn, lussl+ w+nts +cccss tc thc Lurcpc+n
m+rkct thrcugh + multltudc cl ch+nncls, sc +s tc
+vcld dcpcndcncc cn +ny lndlvldu+l tr+nslt st+tc. A
str+tcgy cl cxccss c+p+cltlcs cl dcllvcry wculd cllcr
Ncsccw pclltlc+l lnllucncc cvcr thc tr+nslt st+tcs
|ust hcc+usc lt :ou/d chccsc +n +ltcrn+tlvc tr+nslt
rcutc. lndccd, thc lussl+n gr+nd dcslgn lncludcs +
multltudc cl prc|ccts, +ddlng tc thc currcnt Scvlct-
tlmcs c+p+cltlcs. Ncrd Strc+m, cn thc hcttcm cl thc
+ltlc Sc+, lrcm lussl+ tc Ccrm+ny, mc+nt tc +vcld
thc +ltlcs +nd lcl+nd, Scuth Strc+m, cn thc hcttcm
cl thc l+ck Sc+, lrcm lussl+ tc ulg+rl+, mc+nt tc
+vcld lkr+lnc +nd 1urkcy. 1hcrc h+s hccn +lsc t+lk
cvcn thcugh lcss +nd lcss ccnvlnclng +hcut thc
wcstw+rds cxtcnslcn cl thc luc Strc+m plpcllnc,
whlch currcntly llnks lussl+ tc 1urkcy, undcrnc+th
thc l+ck Sc+. ln scctlcns +nd 4 l dlscuss thc r+tlc-
n+lcs +nd thc cvclutlcn prcspccts cl thcsc prc|ccts,
+mcng cthcrs.
ln p+rtlcul+r, l +rguc th+t twc lmpcrt+nt g+mc-
ch+ngcrs h+vc cmcrgcd ln thc cccncmy cl thc L+st-
Vcst g+s llcws.
(1) 1hc cpcnlng, ln Dcccmhcr 2OO9, cl thc Ccntr+l
Asl+-Chln+ plpcllnc, whlch prcvldcs 1urkmcnlst+n
wlth + vcry slgnlllc+nt cxpcrt cutlct cthcr th+n
lussl+, +ddlng tc thc mcrc mcdcst, thcugh +lsc
lmpcrt+nt, qu+ntltlcs scld tc lr+n. Ag+lnst thc
h+ckgrcund cl st+gn+nt lussl+n prcductlcn cl
n+tur+l g+s, lt wlll hc shcwn th+t thls r+lscs scrl-
cus prchlcms lcr lussl+'s c+p+clty tc +cqulrc
sulllclcnt g+s lcr rc-cxpcrt ln lkr+lnc, +nd tc llll
m+mmcth prc|ccts such +s Scuth Strc+m, whlch
ls pl+nncd tc t+p lntc C+spl+n g+s. lndlrcctly,
Ncrd Strc+m's scccnd ph+sc ls llkcly tc hc +llcct-
cd tcc, +s Ncsccw wlll llnd lt dllllcult tc lrcc up
vclumcs lrcm thc dcmcstlc m+rkct whlch +rc
cthcrwlsc suppl+ntcd hy 1urkmcn lmpcrts.
(2) 1hc prcmlslng rcsults th+t +ltcrn+tlvc tcchnclc-
glcs cl g+s prcductlcn sc-c+llcd unccnvcn-
tlcn+l g+s, cht+lncd thrcugh hydr+ullc lr+ctur-
lng cl sh+lc rccks h+vc ln Lurcpc. 1hcsc rcsults
pclnt tc +n lmmcnsc pctcntl+l. 1hcrclcrc, thcrc
ls mcrc tc Lurcpc's cncrgy sccurlty th+n thc g+s
plpcllncs g+mc.
2. 1urkmcnistan's ncw outlcts
On Dcccmhcr 14, 2OO9, thc lrcsldcnts ]u ]lnt+c
cl Chln+, Curh+nguly crdlmukh+mmcdcv cl
1urkmcnlst+n, Nursult+n N+z+rh+cv cl l+z+khst+n,
+nd lsl+m l+rlmcv cl lzhcklst+n cclchr+tcd +t
S+m+ndcpc, ln c+stcrn 1urkmcnlst+n, thc v+lvc-
cpcnlng ccrcmcny cl thc ncw Ccntr+l Asl+-Chln+
g+s plpcllnc. 1hc llnc h+s + pl+nncd tct+l c+p+clty cl
4O hcm]yc+r (ccnslstlng cl O hcm lrcm 1urkmcnlst+n
+nd 1O hcm lrcm l+z+khst+n) +nd ls mcrc th+n
1,8OO kllcmctcrs lcng. lt st+rts lrcm 1urkmcnlst+n's
+gty+rllk g+s llcld, nc+r thc lzhck hcrdcr, cn thc
rlght sldc cl thc Amu D+ry+ rlvcr, +nd lt gccs 188 km
cn 1urkmcn tcrrltcry, thcn runs lt +hcut 55O km
thrcugh lzhcklst+n +nd 1,OO km vl+ l+z+khst+n
+nd hclcrc cntcrlng Chln+ ln thc Xln|l+ng rcglcn
(Scccr 2OO9+).
1hc lr+mcwcrk +grccmcnt cn thc plpcllnc ccn-
structlcn +nd g+s suppllcs w+s slgncd ln Aprll 2OOo
hctwccn Chln+ +nd 1urkmcnlst+n. 1hc prc|cct dcvcl-
cpcd h+s t+kcn pl+cc +t +n lmprch+hlc spccd, wlth
thc slgnlng ln 2OO cl thc +grccmcnt cl cxplcr+tlcn
+nd prcductlcn cl thc +gty+rllk llcld hy Chln+'s
N+tlcn+l lctrclcum Ccmp+ny, +nd +lsc cl thc +grcc-
mcnt hctwccn l+z+khst+n +nd Chln+ cn thc ccn-
structlcn cl thc l+z+kh scgmcnt cl thc llnc. 1hc l+t-
tcr lnccrpcr+tcs scgmcnts cl thc prccxlstlng plpcllnc
lrcm lzhcklst+n tc Alm+ty. 1hc m+xlmum pl+nncd
vclumc cl g+s wlll llcw +ltcr thc ccmplctlcn cl +
scccnd, p+r+llcl llnc ln l+z+khst+n, st+rtlng 2O1O.
Ncw, thc str+tcglc ccnscqucnccs cl thls +chlcvc-
mcnt +rc vcry lmpcrt+nt. lcr cnc thlng, lussl+'s
mcncpscny cn 1urkmcn n+tur+l h+s hccn hrckcn.
lntll rcccntly, Ncsccw hcught +lmcst cntlrcly thc
qu+ntltlcs cl Ccntr+l Asl+n g+s th+t wcrc up lcr s+lc,
+mcuntlng cvcn tc 8O hcm]yc+r. Ol thls, lussl+ rc-
cxpcrtcd cnc p+rt tc lkr+lnc +nd Lurcpc, +t
lncrc+scd prlccs, +nd uscd thc rcst cn thc dcmcstlc
m+rkct, thus lrcclng up qu+ntltlcs cl Vcst Slhcrl+n
g+s lcr cxpcrts tc Lurcpc. 1c thcsc qu+ntltlcs cl g+s,
1urkmcnlst+n ccntrlhutcd wlth +lmcst twc thlrds,
lcr whlch C+zprcm h+d p+ld untll thc cnd cl 2OO8
thc chc+pcst prlcc cl +ll lts Ccntr+l Asl+n suppllcrs. +
hlt cvcr cnc thlrd cl thc +vcr+gc Lurcpc+n ncth+ck
prlcc. 1hus, glvcn thc st+gn+tlcn cl lussl+'s cwn g+s
prcductlcn, thc 1urkmcn g+s h+s ccnstltutcd +n
csscntl+l p+rt cl C+zprcm's huslncss mcdcl.
St+rtlng ]+nu+ry 1, 2OO9, C+zprcm hcg+n p+ylng
Lurcpc+n-lcvcl r+tcs lcr thc 1urkmcn g+s, +nd hcn-
crcd lts ccmmltmcnts dcspltc thc m+|cr drcp
ln Lurcpc+n dcm+nd. ln thc sprlng cl 2OO9, hcw-
cvcr, +ltcr thc vlslt tc Ncsccw cl lrcsldcnt
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HARYARD BIACK SFA SFCURI1Y PRDCRAH-2009
l A l \ A l D
LACl SLA
S L C l l l 1 Y l l O C l A N
2009
crdlmukh+mmcdcv, thc rcl+tlcns hctwccn Ncsccw
+nd Ashkh+h+d st+rtcd tc dcgr+dc, slncc 1urkmcnlst+n
rcluscd tc +ssurc thc lc+dcrshlp cl C+zprcm +hcut
glvlng up lts drlvc tcw+rd dlvcrslllc+tlcn cl m+rkct
cutlcts (lcn+ud, 2OO9, ). Ccnscqucntly, thc slgnlng
cl +n +grccmcnt cn thc ccnstructlcn cl + g+s plpcllnc
lrcm thc g+s llclds ln L+stcrn 1urkmcnlst+n tc thc
C+spl+n shcrcs w+s dclcrrcd. +ck ln Ashkh+h+d,
crdlmukh+mmcdcv +nncunccd thc l+unch cl +n
lntcrn+tlcn+l hld lcr thc ccnstructlcn cl th+t plpc-
llnc, whcrcupcn C+zprcm rc+ctcd hy +nncunclng +
prcgrcsslvc rcductlcn ln thc vclumcs cl g+s hcught
lrcm 1urkmcnlst+n. Duc tc pccr ccmmunlc+tlcn
hctwccn C+zprcm +nd 1urkmcng+s, +n cxplcslcn
tcck pl+cc cn Aprll 8 nc+r thc lzhck hcrdcr, lcr +n
cxccss cl prcssurc hullt ln thc plpcllnc. Althcugh
C+zprcm +uthcrltlcs hch+vcd thcrc+ltcr +s ll ncthlng
cxtr+crdln+ry h+d h+ppcncd, 1urkmcnlst+n rc+l-
llrmcd lts pcllcy cl dlvcrsllylng g+s cxpcrts.
And lndccd, thc Ccntr+l Asl+-Chln+ plpcllnc
st+rts tr+nspcrtlng 5 hcm ln 2O1O +nd ls duc tc r+lsc
tc O hcm]yc+r hy 2O1. An +ddltlcn+l qu+ntlty cl
1O hcm]yc+r wlll hc dcllvcrcd tc Chln+ +ltcr thc
ccmplctlcn cl thc scccnd st+gc, ln 2O11. csldcs,
Chln+'s St+tc Dcvclcpmcnt +nk cpcncd + 4 hllllcn
llnc cl crcdlt tc 1urkmcng+s lcr cxplcr+tlcn +nd
prcductlcn ln thc Scuth Yclct+n +nd Osm+n g+s
llclds. lcncc, +ll ln +ll, Chln+'s lnt+kc cl 1urkmcn g+s
ls llkcly tc surp+ss thc purch+scs hy lussl+ ln thc
nc+r luturc (Scccr, 2OO9l).
1hc ln+ugur+tlcn cl yct +ncthcr plpcllnc ls duc
tc t+kc pl+cc sccn ln 1urkmcnlst+n. lrcm thc
D+ulct+h+d llcld (kncwn untll 1991 +s Scvlct+h+d
+nd dcdlc+tcd untll ncw tc cxpcrts tc lussl+) tc
S+lyp Y+r ln lr+n. 1hc lnltl+l c+p+clty cl thls plpcllnc
ls o hcm]yc+r, schcdulcd tc lncrc+sc tc 12 hcm ln
thc scccnd ph+sc. 1hc ncw plpcllnc tc lr+n wlll +dd
tc thc cxlstlng cnc, lcrpc|c-lcrdkuy, ccmmlsslcncd
ln 199, wlth + c+p+clty cl 8 hcm]yc+r. Ovcr+ll, thc
1urkmcn cxpcrts tc lr+n wlll +dd up tc 2O hcm]yc+r
(Scccr, 2OO9|).
As +lrc+dy pclntcd cut, thc lmpcrt+ncc cl thcsc
ch+ngcs c+n h+rdly hc cvcrcstlm+tcd. 1urkmcnlst+n
ncw ccrt+lnly h+s mcrc pcwcr ln ncgctl+tlng wlth
lussl+ lcr thc s+lc cl luturc g+s vclumcs. ut thc
lmp+ct ls mcrc dlrcct cn lussl+'s +hlllty tc hrlng tc +n
cnd lts dlvcrslllc+tlcn prc|ccts lcr thc Lurcpc+n m+r-
kct. Ncrd Strc+m +nd Scuth Strc+m. Scuth Strc+m,
whcsc scurccs cl C+spl+n g+s h+vc +lw+ys rcm+lncd
unspcclllcd, wlll +lmcst ccrt+lnly nct hc lcd wlth
1urkmcn g+s. lcr Ncrd Strc+m's scccnd ph+sc, +g+ln,
thc l+ck cl 1urkmcn lmpcrts wlll hlcck thc vclumcs
cl Vcst Slhcrl+n g+s c+rm+rkcd lcr cxpcrt ln
Ccrm+ny wc sh+ll dlscuss thcsc prc|ccts ln mcrc
dct+ll ln thc ncxt scctlcn. 1hcn, Chln+ wlll +lsc h+vc
+ strcngcr h+nd ln thc ncgctl+tlcns wlth lussl+ cvcr
thc purch+sc cl g+s lrcm c+stcrn Slhcrl+, hcc+usc
lrcm ncw cn Chln+ dccs nct dcpcnd cn + mcncpc-
llst prcvldcr +ny lcngcr (Scccr, 2OO9k). lln+lly,
Azcrh+l|+n ltscll h+s ccntcmpl+tcd thc pcsslhlllty cl
cxpcrtlng c+stw+rd, tc Chln+ +nd cthcr L+st Asl+n
m+rkcts, cut cl lrustr+tlcn wlth thc slcw prcgrcss cl
thc N+huccc prc|cct +nd wlth thc dlsputc wlth
1urkcy cvcr tr+nslt tcrms +nd rcvcnucs lcr thc
Azcrh+l|+nl g+s crcsslng An+tcll+ cn lts w+y tc Lurcpc
(lctcrscn, 2OO9+). ut thls rcm+lns + r+thcr rhctcrlc+l
thrc+t, +s sh+ll +lsc hc +rgucd ln thc ncxt scctlcn.
Nc+nwhllc, hcwcvcr, lussl+ kccps slgnlllc+nt
lcvcr+gc upcn 1urkmcnlst+n's lcrclgn pcllcy. 1hc
prcspcct lcr Ashkh+h+d tc dlrcctly +cccss thc
Lurcpc+n g+s m+rkct ls l+t+lly llmltcd hy Ncsccw's
+lcng wlth lr+n's vchcmcnt cppcsltlcn +g+lnst thc
ccnstructlcn cl + 1r+ns-C+spl+n plpcllnc, whlch
wculd run cn thc C+spl+n sc+hcd lrcm 1urkmcnh+shl
tc +ku. Ncrccvcr, Ncsccw ls +dcpt +t llnklng
cncrgy sccurlty wlth cthcr lssuc +rc+s lncludlng
sccurlty |ou| :our|. On Dcccmhcr 22, 2OO9, lrcsldcnt
Dmltrl Ncdvcdcv vlsltcd 1urkmcnlst+n. 1hc +gcnd+
cl thc mcctlng hctwccn Ncdvcdcv +nd crdlmu-
kh+mmcdcv lncludcd thc slgnlng cl +n +grccmcnt
cn thc rcsumptlcns cl g+s dcllvcrlcs lrcm
1urkmcnlst+n tc lussl+ c+rly ncxt yc+r (Str+tlcr,
2OO9c). Yct thc cmph+sls cl thc vlslt w+s cn lussl+'s
cndc+vcr tc kccp lzhcklst+n ln chcck 1urk-
mcnlst+n's ncrthcrn nclghhcr, whlch Ashkh+h+d
rcg+rds +s + thrc+t, +s lt dcmln+tcs thc pcpul+tlcn
ccrc ln thc lcrg+n+ \+llcy +nd c+n thus prc|cct
lnllucncc vl+ lts cthnlc m+|crlty nct cnly ln
1urkmcnlst+n, hut +lsc ln 1+|lklst+n +nd lyrgyzst+n.
3. Nabucco and South Strcam
N+huccc ls thc m+ln Vcstcrn-h+ckcd g+s plpcllnc
prc|cct mc+nt tc rcducc thc Lurcpc+n cncrgy dcpcn-
dcncc cn lussl+. 1hc llnc wculd ccntlnuc thc cxt+nt
+ku-1hlllsl-Lrzurum g+s llnc, crcsslng An+tcll+ c+st
tc wcst +nd thcn cllmh ncrth-wcstw+rd thrcugh
ulg+rl+, lcm+nl+, lung+ry +nd Austrl+ tlll thc tcrml-
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12
HARYARD BIACK SFA SFCURI1Y PRDCRAH-2009
l A l \ A l D
LACl SLA
S L C l l l 1 Y l l O C l A N
2009
nus huh, +umg+rtcn +n dcr N+rch, nc+r \lcnn+. 1hc
tct+l lcngth cl thc prc|cct ls ,OO km +nd thc ccn-
structlcn wcrk ls duc tc st+rt ln 2O1O +cccrdlng tc
2OO8 cstlm+tcs (1crcllc, 2OO8), thcugh lt ls llkcly th+t
cvcn thls d+tc wlll hc pushcd h+ck +nd ls schcdulcd
tc hc ccmplctcd ln 2O14. 1hc cstlm+tcd ccst cllmhcd
ln 2OO8 tc `.9 hllllcn, duc tc thc lncrc+scd prlcc cl
stccl, up lrcm thc lnltl+l cstlm+tc cl `4,o hllllcn
(Cutlcdcrcr, 2OO8), hut ls ncw llkcly tc hc rcvlscd
dcwnw+rd +g+ln, +ltcr thc glch+l cccncmlc crlsls.
Althcugh thc prctcccl cl lntcntlcn cn thc ccn-
structlcn cl thc plpcllnc w+s slgncd +lrc+dy ln 2OO2
(hy ON\ cl Austrl+, NOL cl lung+ry, ulg+rg+s cl
ulg+rl+, 1r+nsg+s cl lcm+nl+ +nd ct+s cl 1urkcy),
prcgrcss h+s hccn slcw +nd mlncd wlth scth+cks. 1hc
lc+slhlllty study cl thc prc|cct w+s lln+nccd 5O hy
thc Lurcpc+n Ccmmlsslcn. 1hc |clnt vcnturc +grcc-
mcnt w+s slgncd hy thc llvc ccnscrtlum mcmhcrs ln
]unc 2OO5. 1hcrc+ltcr, nc nctlcc+hlc prcgrcss h+d
hccn rcglstcrcd untll lchru+ry 2OO8, whcn thc Ccrm+n
puhllc utlllty lVL |clncd thc ccnscrtlum.
lndcuhtcdly, lt w+s thc lussc-lkr+lnl+n g+s sp+t
cl ]+nu+ry 2OO9 th+t trlggcrcd + ncw w+vc cl pclltlc+l
lntcrcst ln thc l+tc cl N+huccc. On ]+nu+ry 2, 2OO9,
+ N+huccc Summlt tcck pl+cc ln ud+pcst, +t whlch
thc hc+ds cl thc Lurcpc+n lnvcstmcnt +nk (Ll) +nd
thc Lurcpc+n +nk lcr lcccnstructlcn +nd
Dcvclcpmcnt (LlD) plcdgcd tc cllcr lln+ncl+l sup-
pcrt lcr thc prc|cct (Dcutschc Vcllc, 2OO9). 1hc ncxt
d+y thc Lurcpc+n Ccmmlsslcn +nncunccd thc +llcc+-
tlcn cl `25O mllllcn, thrcugh Ll, tc |umpst+rt ccn-
structlcn (l+rrlscn, 2OO9).
1hc cthcr m+|cr stcp w+s thc ou|/crn (orridor
|ruuc ummi| cl N+y 8, 2OO9, whlch hrcught tcgcth-
cr rcprcscnt+tlvcs cl l+z+khst+n, 1urkmcnlst+n,
Azcrh+l|+n, Cccrgl+ +nd 1urkcy, tcgcthcr wlth rcprc-
scnt+tlvcs cl Ll lnstltutlcns. 1hc summlt c+mc cut
wlth + v+guc dcllnltlcn cl thc ccnccpt cl ou|/crn
(orridor, +s ccvcrlng thc cncrgy prc|ccts ccmmcnly
undcrt+kcn hy thcsc l+ck Sc+ +nd C+spl+n st+tcs
(LurActlv, 2OO9). ln thclr ]clnt Dccl+r+tlcn, thc
Scuthcrn Ccrrldcr st+tcs ccmmlttcd cxpllcltly tc thc
ccmplctlcn cl thc 1r+ns-C+spl+n llnk lcr hydrcc+r-
hcns, tc slgnlng hy thc cnd cl 2OO9 +n lntcrgcvcrn-
mcnt+l +grccmcnt lcr thc 1urkcy-Crcccc-lt+ly
lntcrccnncctcr (l1Cl) +nd, lcr thc Ll, tc slgnlng
mcmcr+nd+ cl undcrst+ndlng wlth lr+q +nd Lgypt,
rcspcctlvcly, rcg+rdlng thclr p+rtlclp+tlcn tc thc
Scuthcrn Ccrrldcr.
lln+lly, ln ]uly cl 2OO9, Ank+r+ hcstcd thc slgnlng
ccrcmcny cl thc lntcrgcvcrnmcnt+l +grccmcnt cl thc
llvc tr+nslt st+tcs cl N+huccc. Ccnsplcucusly, thcugh,
thc prcduccr st+tcs wcrc nct prcscnt. Ncw, lcr +
whclc hunch cl rc+scns, thc +dv+nccmcnt cl thc
Scuthcrn Ccrrldcr ls hcsct wlth chst+clcs +nd unccr-
t+lntlcs. 1hc N+huccc prc|cct h+s nct ccmc lcrw+rd
much slncc thc Ank+r+ summlt, duc hcth tc l+cklustcr
Ll pclltlc+l +nd cccncmlc lnvclvcmcnt +nd tc thc
dctcrrlng cllcct cl thc ccmpctlng lussl+n prc|cct,
Scuth Strc+m.
Scuth Strc+m ls + |clnt vcnturc cl C+zprcm +nd
thc lt+ll+n ccmp+ny Lnl, pl+nnlng tc l+y dcwn 9OO
kllcmctcrs cl plpcllnc cn thc l+ck Sc+'s sc+hcd, lrcm
crcgcv+y+ (lussl+) tc \+rn+ (ulg+rl+), +nd lrcm
thcrc cn, ln + ncrthcrn hr+nch, tc Scrhl+, lung+ry,
Slcvcnl+ +nd Austrl+, +nd ln + scuthcrn hr+nch, tc
Crcccc +nd scuthcrn lt+ly, vl+ + m+rlnc lntcrccnncc-
tcr. 1hc prc|cct w+s puhllcly +nncunccd ln ]unc 2OO
+nd slncc thcn lt h+s m+dc scvcr+l lmpcrt+nt stcps
tcw+rd lnhlhltlng lts +rchrlv+l, N+huccc. On ]+nu+ry
25, hcth Scrhl+ +nd lung+ry r+tlllcd thc +grccmcnts
tc hulld thc rcspcctlvc scctlcns cl thc plpcllnc (plus
+ l+rgc g+s stcr+gc ccntcr nc+r +n+tskl Dvcr, ln
Scrhl+). 1hc ulg+rl+n l+rll+mcnt r+tlllcd thc +grcc-
mcnt ln ]uly 2OO8, whllc Crcccc +nd lussl+ slgncd +n
lntcrgcvcrnmcnt+l +grccmcnt ln Aprll cl 2OO8. On
Ncvcmhcr 1o, 2OO9, Slcvcnl+ |clncd Scuth Strc+m,
thus prcvldlng thc prc|cct wlth thc mlsslng llnk lcr
thc ncrthcrn hr+nch. And cn Ncvcmhcr 11, ln
Ncsccw, ln + |clnt st+tcmcnt, Austrl+n Ch+nccllcr
Vcrncr l+ym+nn +nd thc lussl+n lrlmc Nlnlstcr
\l+dlmlr lutln cmph+slzcd thc nccd lcr Austrl+ tc
|cln Scuth Strc+m (upl.ccm, 2OO9). Ncrccvcr, cn
Ncvcmhcr 2, durlng lrlmc Nlnlstcr's lutln vlslt tc
lr+ncc, Llcctrlclt dc lr+ncc (LDl) |clncd thc Scuth
Strc+m ccnscrtlum. LDl's p+rtlclp+tlcn ls cxpcctcd
tc hcrdcr cn 1O (\ld+lcn, 2OO9). Alsc slgnlllc+nt
w+s th+t lmmcdl+tcly +ltcr thc slgnlng cl N+huccc's
lntcrgcvcrnmcnt+l +grccmcnt ln Ank+r+, 1urkcy
+cccptcd th+t lussl+ l+ys dcwn thc Scuth Strc+m llnc
cn thc 1urklsh sc+hcd thus +vcldlng thc lkr+lnl+n
cccncmlc zcnc ln rcturn lcr thc ccnstructlcn cl +n
cll tr+nspcrt systcm llnklng Ncvcrcssllsk tc thc l+ck
Sc+ pcrt cl S+msun +nd ccntcrlng +rcund + ncw cll
plpcllnc +crcss An+tcll+, lrcm S+msun tc thc
Ncdltcrr+nc+n pcrt cl Ccyh+n +s p+rt cl Ank+r+'s
str+tcgy cl turnlng Ccyh+n ln thc wcrld's hlggcst
cncrgy huh (Scccr, 2OO9h).
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13
HARYARD BIACK SFA SFCURI1Y PRDCRAH-2009
l A l \ A l D
LACl SLA
S L C l l l 1 Y l l O C l A N
2009
Othcr th+n lts sccmlng lcrm+l succcss, Scuth
Strc+m ls + hugcly +mhltlcus prc|cct. 1hc dchlt cl thc
cllshcrc scctlcn cl thc llnc w+s hccstcd lrcm lnltl+lly
1 hcm]yc+r tc nc lcss th+n o1 hcm]yc+r (dp+, 2OO9),
+t + prchlhltlng ccst cl +hcut `24 hllllcn +cccrdlng
tc C+zprcm's cwn cstlm+tc, whlch wculd m+kc lt thc
wcrld's mcst cxpcnslvc plpcllnc (Scccr, 2OO9+). lt ls
unllkcly th+t thls klnd cl lnvcstmcnt wlll cvcr t+kc
pl+cc, glvcn C+zprcm's cxccsslvc dcllvcry ccmmlt-
mcnts +ll thc mcrc ncw, +ltcr thc ccmmlsslcnlng cl
thc Ccntr+l Asl+-Chln+ plpcllnc, whlch lclt C+zprcm
wlth sc+rcc scurccs cl C+spl+n g+s.
lt ls +ctu+lly prch+hlc th+t Scuth Strc+m h+s +ll
+lcng hccn + p+pcr tlgcr, whcsc truc r+tlcn+lc h+s
hccn tc undcrmlnc +nd lnhlhlt thc N+huccc prc|cct.
y cunnlngly prcmlslng +ll thc p+rtlclp+nt ccuntrlcs
thc st+tus cl +n cncrgy huh, C+zprcm rcllcd cn +
str+tcgy cl di|idc c| imcru, tc thc succcss cl whlch
+lsc ccntrlhutcd Ll's h+ll-hc+rtcd suppcrt cl
N+huccc.
lndccd, turnlng h+ck tc N+huccc, + rcccnt scth+ck
w+s thc +nncunccmcnt cl thc dcl+y tc thc lcurth
qu+rtcr cl 2O1O cl lts Lurcpc+n lln+ncl+l suppcrt,
lnltl+lly +ntlclp+tcd tc hc +rr+ngcd ln ]+nu+ry (lcn+uld,
2OO9, ). Yct hy l+r thc mcst prcsslng chst+clc lcr
N+huccc +t thc mcmcnt ls thc dlsputc hctwccn
Azcrh+l|+n +nd 1urkcy rcg+rdlng tr+nslt rcvcnucs +nd
g+s prlclng lcr Azcrh+l|+nl g+s tr+nsltlng 1urkcy tc llll
thc 1urkcy-Crcccc-lt+ly lntcrccnncctcr. 1hls +dds tc
Ank+r+'s lnslstcncc cn huylng up Azcrh+l|+nl g+s up
tc 15 cl thc N+huccc tr+nslt +t dccply dlsccuntcd
prlccs. lrcsldcnt llh+m Allycv cl Azcrh+l|+n m+dc
puhllc hls ccuntry's dlss+tlsl+ctlcn wlth Ank+r+'s t+c-
tlcs cn Octchcr 21, whllc ch+lrlng +n cxp+ndcd scs-
slcn cl thc gcvcrnmcnt. Acccrdlng tc Allycv, Ank+r+
h+s hccn p+ylng mcrcly cnc thlrd cl thc +vcr+gc
Lurcpc+n prlcc lcr Azcrh+l|+nl g+s ln rcccnt yc+rs
(Scccr, 2OO9d). lndcr + hll+tcr+l +grccmcnt slgncd ln
2OO2, 1urkcy hcught g+s lrcm Azcrh+l|+n lcr 12O pcr
cnc thcus+nd cuhlc mctcrs (tcm). 1h+t +grccmcnt
cxplrcd ln Aprll 2OO, +lcng wlth +ny |ustlllc+tlcn lcr
thc lcw prlcc, hut Ank+r+ h+s stcncw+llcd thc ncgc-
tl+tlcns cn + ncw prlcc, |ust ccntlnulng tc p+y thc cld
cnc +nd h+rg+lnlng lcr sllght lncrcmcnts. lcr thc
+pprcxlm+tcly hmc]yc+r th+t lt lmpcrts lrcm
Azcrh+l|+n, 1urkcy p+ys lcss th+n 5O cl wh+t lt cllcrs
lcr thc lussl+n g+s ccmlng thrcugh thc luc Strc+m
plpcllnc (Scccr, 2OO9c). Alsc +cccrdlng tc Allycv,
Ank+r+ lnslsts cn ch+rglng tr+nslt lccs th+t +rc O
hlghcr th+n thcsc ch+rgcd hy cthcr tr+nslt st+tcs cn
thc N+huccc rcutc. 1hcsc l+cts lnhlhlt thc dcvclcp-
mcnt cl thc Azcrh+l|+nl Sh+h Dcnlz g+s llcld, whlch ls
c+rm+rkcd tc lccd lntc N+huccc. 1hc st+rt cl lts ccm-
mcrcl+l prcductlcn h+s +lrc+dy hccn dcl+ycd hy twc
yc+rs, hclng ncw schcdulcd lcr 2O15.
ln thc l+cc cl lt, Azcrh+l|+n w+s ccmpcllcd tc ccn-
tcmpl+tc cthcr cxpcrt cptlcns. On Ncvcmhcr 2O,
SOCAl's lrcsldcnt lcvn+g Ahdull+ycv dccl+rcd th+t
hls ccuntry ls scrlcusly ccnsldcrlng cxpcrts tc Chln+
(lctcrscn, 2OO9+). 1hls, cn thc cnc h+nd, w+s prcmpt-
cd hy thc +pprc+chlng cpcnlng cl thc Ccntr+l Asl+-
Chln+ plpcllnc, whlch h+s hccn +grccd upcn +nd
ccnstructcd ln + much mcrc cxpcdlcnt +nd unccm-
pllc+tcd m+nncr. On thc cthcr h+nd, lt h+s ccrt+lnly
hccn + mcss+gc pclntcd +t thc N+huccc ccnscrtlum
+nd +t thc Lurcpc+n gcvcrnmcnts lnvclvcd, th+t thcy
cccrdln+tc wlth 1urkcy +nd ccmc cut wlth + clc+r
cllcr tc thc C+spl+n prcduccrs.
ln l+ct, hcwcvcr, thc pcsslhlllty th+t Azcrh+l|+n
dr+stlc+lly rccrlcnts lts cxpcrts str+tcgy tc thc L+st
lnstc+d cl tc thc Vcst ls rcmctc. 1hc rc+scns +rc
+ptly cnumcr+tcd hy lctcrscn (2OO9+). llrst, hcc+usc
cl thc lnhcrcnt tcchnlc+l dllllcultlcs rcl+tcd tc +
supplcmcnt+ry cxtcnslcn cl thc Chln+ plpcllnc,
+lrc+dy sct tc hc thc lcngcst ln thc wcrld, scccnd,
hcc+usc th+t wculd rcqulrc 1urkmcnlst+n's cccpcr+-
tlcn, whlch ls dllllcult tc cht+ln +g+lnst thc h+ck-
grcund cl thc cngclng dlsputc hctwccn thc twc
st+tcs +hcut thc Scrd+r]ly+p+z g+s llcld ln thc
C+spl+n Sc+, thlrd +nd mcst lmpcrt+nt hcc+usc
such + rccrlcnt+tlcn wculd h+vc Azcrh+l|+n glvc up
lts gccstr+tcglc pcsltlcn cl + g+tcw+y tc thc wcstcrn
llcws cl C+spl+n hydrcc+rhcns. 1h+t kcy +dv+nt+gc
wculd hc ccmplctcly lcst ll +ku stccd l+st ln thc
qucuc, lccklng tcw+rd cl|lng.
lt wculd hc much c+slcr lcr Azcrh+l|+n tc lncrc+sc
lts cxpcrts cn thc ncrth-scuth +xls th+t ls, tc lussl+
+nd lr+n, rcspcctlvcly. C+zprcm h+s lcng cllcrcd tc
huy up thc cntlrc g+s prcductlcn cl Azcrh+l|+n, lcr lts
Ncrth C+uc+sus m+rkct +nd lcr lurthcr cxpcrts tc thc
Ll, +n cllcr whlch +ku h+s sc l+r rcslstcd. ln Octchcr
cl 2OO9, hcwcvcr, +n +grccmcnt w+s slgncd hy whlch
st+rtlng ]+nu+ry 1, 2O1O, Azcrh+l|+n cxpcrts 5OO mll-
llcn cuhlc mctcr]yc+r cl g+s tc lussl+. lntcrcstlngly,
thc prlcc sccms tc thc slmll+r tc thc Lurcpc+n nct-
h+ck +nd rc-cxpcrt ls prccludcd hy + spcclllc cl+usc.
Vhllc thls ls + sm+ll qu+ntlty, thc +grccmcnt lncludcs
+n lncrc+sc cptlcn. lcr thc mcmcnt, thcugh, thc
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14
HARYARD BIACK SFA SFCURI1Y PRDCRAH-2009
l A l \ A l D
LACl SLA
S L C l l l 1 Y l l O C l A N
2009
+grccmcnt ls prlm+rlly + w+kc-up c+ll tc thc N+huccc
ccnscrtlum.
1hc g+s supply +grccmcnt cught tc hc ccrrchc-
r+tcd wlth + mcrc gcncr+l grcwth cl pclltlc+l lnllu-
cncc cl Ncsccw cvcr +ku, gclng +s l+r +s Azcrh+l|+n's
ccnsldcr+tlcn cl mcmhcrshlp ln thc Ccllcctlvc Sccurlty
1rc+ty Org+nlz+tlcn (CS1O) (Str+tlcr, 2OO9+). 1wc
rc+scns st+nd cut lcr such + mcvc. (l) +ku's cllcrt tc
cht+ln Ncsccw's p+rlty cl trc+tmcnt wlth Armcnl+
(whlch ls +n cld mlllt+ry +lly cl lussl+) ln vlcw cl thc
N+gcrnc-l+r+h+kh ccnlllct, (ll) +ku's dlsllluslcn-
mcnt wlth thc ncrm+llz+tlcn ncgctl+tlcns hctwccn
Armcnl+ +nd 1urkcy, whlch Azcrh+l|+n pcrcclvcs +s +
hctr+y+l hy lts uu |cy, 1urkcy.
lmpcrt+ntly, lcr lts ncrth +nd scuth g+s cxpcrt
cptlcns, Azcrh+l|+n dccs nct dcpcnd cn cthcr tr+n-
slt ccuntrlcs +nd dccs nct nccd ncw plpcllncs.
Scvlct-cr+ plpcllnc ccnncctlcns tc hcth lussl+ +nd
lr+n +rc ln pl+cc +nd cnly nccd mcdcrnlz+tlcn, +dd-
lng up tc 1O hmc]yc+r cncugh tc +cccmmcd+tc
Azcrh+l|+n's surpluscs lcr thc ncxt yc+rs, ln c+sc
N+huccc l+ltcrs.
lln+lly, durlng thc Octchcr 1o scsslcn cl thc
gcvcrnmcnt, lrcsldcnt Allycv +lludcd tc thc prcpc-
sltlcn cl + ncw plpcllnc prc|cct +s +n +ltcrn+tlvc
cxpcrt cptlcn. w/i|c |rcum, whlch ls suppcscd tc
dcllvcr g+s lrcm Azcrh+l|+n vl+ Cccrgl+ +nd thc
l+ck Sc+ sc+hcd tc lcm+nl+ unllkc thc prcvlcus
vcrslcn cl thc prc|cct, whlch wculd h+vc run tc
Crlmc+ (Scccr, 2OO9d). Vhltc Strc+m thus hclcngs
ln thc Scuthcrn Ccrrldcr ccnccpt. Ncrc prcclscly,
Vhltc Strc+m ls prc|cctcd tc hr+nch cll lrcm thc
+ku-1hlllsl-Lrzurum (1L) plpcllnc tc thc pcrt cl
Sups+ +nd ccntlnuc lrcm thcrc cn thc sc+hcd lcr
1,1OO kllcmctcrs tc Ccnst+nt+, whcrc lt wculd ccn-
ncct tc thc lcm+nl+n tr+nsmlsslcn systcm. 1hc tct+l
pl+nncd c+p+clty ls 2 hcm]yc+r. Acccrdlng tc thc
gcncr+l m+n+gcr cl thc Vhltc Strc+m ccnscrtlum,
lchcrtc llr+nl, thc ccmp+ny hcpcs tc slgn + prc|cct
+grccmcnt ln 2O1O, ccmplctc thc dcslgn wcrk hy
2O11, cht+ln +n lnvcstmcnt dcclslcn hy 2O12, st+rt
ccnstructlcn hy 2O1 +nd scc thc llrst g+s llcw hy
2O1o (Scccr, 2OO9c).
Allycv dlscusscd thc ncw Vhltc Strc+m prcpcs+l
wlth lcm+nl+'s lrcsldcnt, 1r+l+n scscu, durlng hls
vlslt tc uch+rcst ln l+tc Scptcmhcr, whcrc thc twc
prcsldcnts slgncd + str+tcglc p+rtncrshlp +grccmcnt.
1hc twc lc+dcrs +lsc ccnsldcrcd thc pcsslhlllty cl
dcvclcplng + llqucllcd n+tur+l g+s (LNC) systcm +s +
pcsslhlc +ltcrn+tlvc sclutlcn lcr thc cxpcrt cl
Azcrh+l|+nl g+s vl+ thc l+ck Sc+, whlch wculd lnvclvc
llqucl+ctlcn ln + Cccrgl+n pcrt +nd rc-g+slllc+tlcn ln
Ccnst+nt+. At thc cnd cl thc d+y, whcthcr dcl+ys ln
thc N+huccc prc|cct wculd push Azcrh+l|+n tcw+rd +
ncn-1urklsh cptlcn, thc chclcc hctwccn Vhltc Strc+m
+nd LNC wculd h+vc tc hc grcundcd ln + ccmp+r+tlvc
ccst-hcncllt +n+lysls.
Durlng thc lcllcwlng ]uly slgnlng ccrcmcny lcr
N+huccc, ln lst+nhul, lr+ql prlmc-mlnlstcr Ncurl +l-
N+llkl st+tcd hls ccuntry wllllngncss +nd c+p+clty tc
ccntrlhutc up tc 15 hcm]y cl g+s tc thc Lurcpc-
hcund plpcllnc (]). Ncrccvcr, twc cl thc N+huccc
ccnscrtlum's ccmp+nlcs h+vc rcccntly lnvcstcd ln g+s
prcductlcn ln ncrthcrn lr+q. 1hus, glvcn thc tcnslcns
hctwccn +ku +nd Ank+r+, lt sccms lncrc+slngly llkcly
th+t thc N+huccc's llrst ph+sc wlll hc luclcd lrcm thc
Nlddlc L+st, r+thcr th+n thc C+spl+n rcglcn. As pclnt-
cd cut hy lctcrscn (2OO9+), Vhllc thc pl+n ls stlll tc
llnk Azcrh+l|+n's Sh+h Dcnlz ll g+s lntc N+huccc's llrst
ph+sc (tc llll +hcut h+ll cl thc plpcllnc's cvcntu+l
c+p+clty), mcrc suppllcs m+y wcll hc +v+ll+hlc lrcm
g+s-rlch ncrthcrn lr+q ln llvc yc+rs' tlmc, +nd thc pcs-
slhlllty th+t Lgyptl+n g+s cculd hc llnkcd tc N+huccc
ls lncrc+slngly g+lnlng crcdcncc +ltcr lt w+s llrst mcn-
tlcncd puhllc+lly hy C+lrc ln ]uly.
4. Nord Strcam
Ncrd Strc+m ls thc n+mc cl thc lussc-Ccrm+n
prc|cct cl + +ltlc cllshcrc g+s plpcllnc, pl+nncd tc
unltc \yhcrg tc Crcllsw+ld. 1hc plpcllnc wculd run
lcr 1,2OO kllcmctcrs +nd ls pl+nncd tc ccnslst ln
twc twln llncs, c+ch cl + c+p+clty cl 2.5 hmc]yc+r.
Ccnstructlcn wcrk ls duc tc st+rt ln sprlng 2O1O, sc
+s tc llnlsh thc llrst llnc hy l+tc 2O11. 1hc scccnd
llnc wculd hc hullt lrcm 2O12 tc 2O14. 1hus, thc
lull thrcughput c+p+clty cl 55 hcm]yc+r cught tc
hc rc+chcd hy 2O15. 1hc ccsts +rc cstlm+tcd +t
`.5 hllllcn (ll+ugcr, 2OO9). 1hc sh+rchcldcrs cl
thc ccnscrtlum +rc C+zprcm wlth 51, ASl
(thrcugh lts g+s-tr+dlng suhsldl+ry, Vlntcrsh+ll)
wlth 2O, L.ON luhrg+s wlth 2O, +nd Ncthcrl+nd's
C+sunlc wlth 9.
1hc +grccmcnt cn thc ccnstructlcn cl Ncrd
Strc+m w+s slgncd cn Scptcmhcr 8, 2OO5, durlng
thc lln+l d+ys ln clllcc cl Ch+nccllcr Ccrh+rd
Schrccdcr, whc thcrc+ltcr hcc+mc hc+d cl thc
sh+rchcldcrs' ccmmlttcc. lls succcsscr, Ch+nccllcr
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15
HARYARD BIACK SFA SFCURI1Y PRDCRAH-2009
l A l \ A l D
LACl SLA
S L C l l l 1 Y l l O C l A N
2009
Angcl+ Ncrkcl, lchhlcd lcr thc lncluslcn cl Ncrd
Strc+m +mcng Ll's prc|ccts cl lntcrcst, lumplng lt
tcgcthcr wlth N+huccc +nd Scuth Strc+m lcr ccl-
lcctlvcly ccntrlhutlng tc Lurcpc's sccurlty cl sup-
ply (upstrc+mcnllnc.ccm, 2OO9).
1hls vcry prcpcsltlcn ls tclllng cl + dccp-gclng
dlllcrcncc ln thc w+y Ccrm+ny undcrst+nds lts
cncrgy sccurlty nccds +nd thc w+y cthcr Ll mcmhcr
st+tcs, p+rtlcul+rly lrcm L+stcrn Lurcpc, ccncclvc cl
thcm. Altcr +ll, Ncrd Strc+m h+s lrcm lts lnccptlcn
hccn surrcundcd hy pclltlc+l ccntrcvcrsy. ln V+rs+w,
thc prc|cct ls nlckn+mcd 1hc Nclctcv-llhhcntrcp
llpcllnc, +ltcr thc 199 Scvlct-N+zl dc+l lcr thc
p+rtltlcn cl lcl+nd (lctcrscn 2OO9c). 1hc +ltlc
ccuntrlcs h+vc cx+ctly thc s+mc lccllng +nd c+nnct
undcrst+nd thc pl+n cl l+ylng dcwn such +n cxpcn-
slvc cllshcrc ccnstructlcn whcn lt wculd h+vc hccn
much chc+pcr tc hulld lt cvcrl+nd thrcugh L+stcrn
Lurcpc, cthcr th+n +s + dcllhcr+tc cxcluslcn hy
Ncsccw cl ccuntrlcs whlch lt stlll ccnsldcrs tc hc
p+rt cl lts sphcrc cl lnllucncc. Ncsccw thus shcws
lts wllllngncss tc lncur hugc cccncmlc ccsts cut cl
mlstrust ln lts lcrmcr sccl+llst hrcthrcn, whllc thc
l+ttcr lc+r th+t cncc C+zprcm h+s sccurcd dlrcct
+cccss tc lts gcldcn hcn thc Ccrm+n m+rkct
thclr cwn cncrgy sccurlty wculd hc +t rlsk lcr
cccncmlc +nd pclltlc+l rc+scns, +s wcll.
Ncw, thc Ccrm+n r+tlcn+lc lcr thls dc+l sccms tc
stcm lrcm wcrrlcs th+t thc lussl+n g+s rcscrvcs wlll
nct sulllcc tc ccvcr thc grcwlng Lurcpc+n dcm+nd
cl thc ccmlng yc+rs, thcncc thc wllllngncss tc sccurc
+s much cl thc +v+ll+hlc lussl+n rcscrvcs cl g+s,
cvcn +t thc rlsk cl + d+ngcrcus dcpcndcncc +t
+lmcst 4O cl thc +nnu+l ccnsumptlcn, wlth + slml-
l+r pcrccnt+gc lcr cll. 1hc Ccrm+n ccnccptlcn cl
sclld+rlty ln thc Lurcpc+n cncrgy pcllcy h+s prlcrl-
tlzcd thc nccd tc lntcrccnncct thc plpcllnc nctwcrks
cl thc Ll st+tcs. 1hls wlll lndccd hc +n lmpcrt+nt
stcp, +nd wlll ccrt+lnly hc hclpcd hy thc crc+tlcn cl
thc ncw Agcncy lcr thc Cccpcr+tlcn cl Lncrgy
lcgul+tcr (ACLl) cl thc Ll (Ccldlrcv+, 2OO9).
Ncvcrthclcss, thc hll+tcr+l cncrgy dc+ls clcscd hy +
lcw pcwcrlul Lurcpc+n st+tcs wlth lussl+ +rc prc-
lcundly dctrlmcnt+l tc +ny scnsc cl + ccmmcn
Lurcpc+n cncrgy pcllcy. Alcng wlth Ccrm+ny, lt+ly ls
suppcscd tc prcvldc gcvcrnmcnt gu+r+ntccs lcr
Ncrd Strc+m, ln rcturn lcr m+sslvc huslncss ccn-
tr+cts glvcn tc lt+ll+n llrms dcslgn+tcd tc p+rtlclp+tc
ln thc ccnstructlcn cl thc llnc +nd ln thc m+nul+c-
turlng cl thc stccl plpcs. lt ls lmpcrt+nt th+t wc
nctlcc thc dlllcrcncc ln typc +nd mctlv+tlcn +mcng
thc +ctcrs lnvclvcd ln thc Lurcpc+n cncrgy g+mc.
1hc sltu+tlcn ls wcll dcscrlhcd hy Scccr (2OO9g).
lt+ly's lnvclvcmcnt wlth Ncrd Strc+m undcr-
sccrcs thc cmcrgcncc cl + trlp+rtltc, lussc-
Ccrm+n-lt+ll+n plpcllnc +lll+ncc tc cutll+nk
Lurcpc thrcugh thc Ncrd Strc+m +nd Scuth
Strc+m prc|ccts. ln thls grcuplng, kuiu u/onc
ocru|c u u |u|c u:|or ui|/ in|cru|cd c:o-
nomi: und o/i|i:u/ |ru|cic. 7/c (crmun u:|or
urc in|crc| rou dri|cn |y :omur|mcn|u/i:cd
|uinc |ru|cic, |/ou/ :uu|/c oj inj/ucn:in
|/c o|crnmcn|, u/i/c |/c l|u/iun ur|i:iun|
urc :omunic /in/cd ui|/ !o:ou-jricnd/y i/|io
|cr/u:oni o|crnmcn|. (my cmph+sls)
c lt +s lt m+y, lcur yc+rs +ltcr thc slgnlng cl thc
ccnstructlcn +grccmcnt, thc Ncrd Strc+m prc|cct
rccclvcd thc Sc+ndln+vl+n ccuntrlcs' grccn llght, ln
thc gulsc cl thclr cnvlrcnmcnt+l pcrmlsslcn tc thc
ccnscrtlum tc l+y thc plpcllnc thrcugh thclr rcspcc-
tlvc cccncmlc zcncs cl thc +ltlc sc+hcd. Dcnm+rk
h+d glvcn lt ln l+tc Octchcr, lcllcwcd hy thc llnnlsh
+nd Swcdlsh gcvcrnmcnts cn Ncvcmhcr 5. 1hc
lussl+n cnvlrcnmcnt +uthcrlty, lcsprlrcdn+dzcr,
g+vc lts +pprcv+l cn Dcccmhcr 18, lcllcwcd cn
Dcccmhcr 28 hy thc pcrmlsslcn cl thc Ccrm+n
lcdcr+l N+rltlmc +nd lydrcgr+phlc Agcncy. Stlll
pcndlng ls + scccnd llnlsh pcrmlsslcn, tc hc gr+ntcd
hy +n lndcpcndcnt cnvlrcnmcnt +gcncy (Str+tm+nn,
2OO9, lcttm+n, 2OO9). 1hus, +ll sccms tc hc sct lcr thc
llrst plpcllnc scgmcnts tc hc l+ld cn thc +ltlc sc+hcd
st+rtlng ncxt sprlng. 1hc lcglstlc+l prcp+r+tlcns h+vc
hccn undcrw+y lcr yc+rs ncw, +s thc pl+n h+s lt th+t
hy thc st+rt cl thc ccnstructlcn wcrk nc lcss th+n cnc
thlrd cl thc stccl plpcllnc shculd hc rc+dy, ccvcrcd ln
ccncrctc (lunncr, 2OO9, lussl+nd-Aktucll, 2OO9).
Ncrd Strc+m's dcdlc+tcd g+s llcld h+s hccn rlght
lrcm thc st+rt Yuzhnc-lusskcyc, lcc+tcd ln thc
Y+m+l-Ncncts Autcncmcus Arc+, up ncrth +hcvc thc
Arctlc Clrclc thus m+klng thc n+mc Yuzhnc
(scuth ln lussl+n) + mlsncmcr. Acccrdlng tc thc
ccnscrtlum's cwn d+t+, thc prcvcn rcscrvcs cl thc
llcld cxcccd OO hmc, wlth +n yc+rly ylcld cl +hcut
25 hcm (ncrd-strc+m.ccm, 2OO9). As thls yc+rly
dchlt h+rcly sulllccs tc llll ln cvcn thc llrst llnc cl
Ncrd Strc+m, C+zprcm mcntlcns +s + supplcmcnt+-
ry scurcc thc Shtckm+n supcrgl+nt g+s llcld, cll-
shcrc ln thc +rcnts Sc+.
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HARYARD BIACK SFA SFCURI1Y PRDCRAH-2009
l A l \ A l D
LACl SLA
S L C l l l 1 Y l l O C l A N
2009
1hc Shtckm+n llcld h+s cstlm+tcd rcscrvcs cl .2
trllllcn cuhlc mctcrs (1cm) (cllshcrc tcchnclcgy.
ccm, 2OO9). lt llcs 55O kllcmctcrs cll lrcm l+nd, +t
+ dcpth cl 5O mctcrs. Ncrc tcchnlc+l dct+ll ls tcll-
lng cl thc unhcllcv+hly dllllcult ccndltlcns cl
cxplclt+tlcn. 1hc llcld ccvcrs +n +rc+ cl 1,4OOm
2

+nd llcs lnsldc thc +rctlc. lt ls suh|cct tc lcchcrgs cl
up tc 1 mllllcn tcns drlltlng +t up tc O.25m]s, +nd
1.2m drllt lcc mcvlng +t up tc 1m]s. (cllshcrc-
tcchnclcgy.ccm, 2OO9). Acccrdlngly, thc cstlm+tcd
dcvclcpmcnt ccsts +rc hugc. +nywhcrc hctwccn 1O
+nd 25 hllllcn. Such hcstllc ccndltlcns rcqulrc
+dv+nccd tcchnclcglc+l kncw-hcw +nd lln+ncl+l
pcwcr, whlch cnly thc glch+l pl+ycrs cl thc cncrgy
huslncss c+n hrlng. 1c thls purpcsc, C+zprcm h+s
lnvltcd Ncrw+y's St+tclllydrc +nd lr+ncc's 1ct+l +s
p+rtncrs tc dcvclcp Shtckm+n, hut unccrt+lntlcs
rcg+rdlng thc tr+nslcr cl tcchnclcglcs tc lussl+
h+vc sc l+r hlndcrcd thc ccncluslcn cl +n +grcc-
mcnt. 1hus, lt ls lmprch+hlc th+t Shtckm+n wlll
cntcr ccmmcrcl+l prcductlcn hclcrc 2O2O (Scccr,
2OO9g), whlch ls l+tc lcr Ncrd Strc+m. csldcs,
Shtckm+n h+s +lsc hccn c+rm+rkcd lcr LNC prc-
ductlcn, cspccl+lly lcr thc Ncrth Amcrlc+n m+rkct.
1hc wchsltc cl thc Ncrd Strc+m ccnscrtlum +lsc
mcntlcns +ddltlcn+l g+s llclds lrcm thc Y+m+l
lcnlnsul+ (ncrd-strc+m.ccm), hut thc cxtrcmcly
rcugh ccndltlcns +nd thc spccl+l tcchnclcglcs nccd-
cd lcr ccnstructlcns cn pcrm+lrcst m+kc dcvclcp-
mcnt dllllcult +nd vcry cxpcnslvc. And, +lthcugh
Y+m+l's dcpcslts +rc lmmcnsc, pctcntl+l tcp lnvcs-
tcrs +rc r+thcr hcslt+nt tc +cccpt C+zprcm's tcrms
lcr p+rtncrshlp.
lndccd, +t thc mcctlng cl \l+dlmlr lutln wlth
thc tcp m+n+gcrs cl thc wcrld's l+rgcst cncrgy
ccmp+nlcs ln S+lckh+rd cn Scptcmhcr 24, +lmlng
+t dcvclcplng Y+m+l's dcpcslts lcr thc LNC m+rkct,
thcy rcspcndcd wlth rctlccncc tc lutln's tcrms
+hcut tcchnclcgy tr+nslcrs tc lussl+, ln cxch+ngc
lcr thclr hclng +llcwcd tc +cccss thcsc g+s rcscurc-
cs (\cdcmcstl, 2OO9). Ap+rt lrcm thc cncrcus
tcrms cl thls p+rtlcul+r cllcr, thc rcluct+ncc cl
Vcstcrn ccmp+nlcs h+s +lsc tc dc wlth lcy+l Dutch
Shcll's cxpcrlcncc ln S+kh+lln, whcrc lt dcvclcpcd
thc S+kh+lln ll llcld currcntly lussl+'s slnglc LNC
prc|cct cn strc+m cnly tc hc lcrccd hy thc
lussl+n st+tc tc scll p+rt cl lts m+|crlty st+kc +lcng
wlth lts cpcr+tlcn rlghts tc C+zprcm, ln 2OOo-
2OO, +t + hc+vlly undcrcstlm+tcd prlcc. 1hc rlsk ls
+d+m+ntly dcplctcd hy Nlkh+ll lcrchcmkln, hc+d
cl thc L+st Lurcpc+n C+s An+lysls ccnsult+ncy.
Vhcn lussl+ nccds mcncy +nd tcchnclcgy, lt
lnvltcs lcrclgn p+rtncrs. ut whcn thc prc|cct ls
rc+dy tc ylcld mcncy, lnvcstcrs m+y hc lcrccd lntc
such unhc+r+hlc ccndltlcns th+t thcy wlll hc h+ppy
tc scll thclr st+kcs (\cdcmcstl, 2OO9).
5. INC and unconvcntional gas
dcvclopmcnts
1hc Lurcpc+n m+rkct cl n+tur+l g+s ccrt+lnly
dccs nct rcducc tc plpcllncs rlv+lry, +nd thc C+spl+n
g+s ls ccrt+lnly nct thc unlquc st+kc cl thc g+mc.
lnvcstmcnts ls cthcr tcchnclcglcs +rc llkcly tc scrl-
cusly +ltcr thc l+ndsc+pc cl n+tur+l g+s cccncmlcs
ln Lurcpc.
LNC, lcr lnst+ncc, whlch rc+chcd + pc+k ln
glch+l dcm+nd ln 2OO8 +nd h+s slncc sccn + rcl+tlvc
rcccsslcn, ccntlnucs tc unlcld ln Lurcpc. 1hc C+tc
1crmln+l ln lcttcrd+m, currcntly ln ccnstructlcn,
wlll h+vc + c+p+clty cl 12 hcm]yc+r (cllshcrc-tcch-
nclcgy.ccm, 2OO9). LNC currcntly rcprcscnts
+pprcxlm+tcly 8 cl thc wcrld's tct+l n+tur+l g+s
tr+dc (Str+tlcr, 2OO9h). Slncc 2OO4, lt h+s sccn +n
lnvcstmcnt hccm ln LNC shlpplng c+p+clty. 1hc
numhcr cl LNC t+nkcrs lncrc+scd lrcm +hcut 15O +t
thc cnd cl 2OO tc mcrc th+n OO tcd+y (cllshcrc-
tcchnclcgy.ccm, O. Apr. 2OO9). lussl+ h+s |ust
st+rtcd tc pl+y ln thls lc+guc, wlth thc cpcnlng cl lts
tcrmln+l cn thc S+kh+lln lsl+nd, hut l+thcms thc
+mhltlcn cl hcccmlng wcrld lc+dcr thrcugh thc
dcvclcpmcnt cl thc mcntlcncd ncrthcrn llclds cl
Shtckm+n +nd Y+m+l.
An lmpcrt+nt Lurcpc+n prc|cct ls thc rcg+slllc+-
tlcn tcrmln+l cl thc Adrl+ LNC ccnscrtlum ln
Omls+l|, cn Crc+tl+'s lrk lsl+nd, lntcndcd tc rccclvc
Nlddlc L+stcrn LNC. 1hc tcrmln+l wlll h+vc +n lnl-
tl+l c+p+clty cl 1O hmc]yc+r, whlch wlll lncrc+sc tc
15 hcm]yc+r. Ccnstructlcn wcrk ls duc tc hcgln ln
2O1O +nd thc prc|cct ls duc tc hc lunctlcn+l ln
2O14, +t + ccst cl +hcut `8OO mllllcn wlthcut
plpcllnc ccnncctlcns (Oll\clcc, 2OO8). 1hc Crc+tl+n
puhllc cplnlcn h+d hccn r+thcr rctlccnt +hcut thls
prc|cct, m+lnly duc tc s+lcty +nd cnvlrcnmcnt+l
ccnccrns, hut +g+ln, thc lussc-lkr+lnl+n g+s sp+t
dld chvlcusly spurt puhllc suppcrt lcr thc Adrl+
LNC prc|cct. 1hc lrk tcrmln+l wlll prcvldc wlth
n+tur+l g+s nct cnly Crc+tl+ (whlch h+s + tct+l
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17
HARYARD BIACK SFA SFCURI1Y PRDCRAH-2009
l A l \ A l D
LACl SLA
S L C l l l 1 Y l l O C l A N
2009
dcm+nd cl .2 hcm]yc+r), hut +lsc tc lt+ly, Austrl+,
lung+ry, lcm+nl+ +nd Slcvcnl+ (lllc, 2OO9+). 1c thls
purpcsc, llln+crc, thc Crc+tl+n n+tur+l g+s tr+ns-
mlsslcn cpcr+tcr, slgncd cn N+rch , 2OO9 +n
+grccmcnt wlth NOL's suhsldl+ry, lCSZ Zrt, lcr thc
ccnstructlcn cl + 294 kllcmctcrs lcng g+s lntcrccn-
ncctcr hctwccn Crc+tl+ +nd lung+ry, wlth + c+p+c-
lty cl o.5 hcm]yc+r (lllc, 2OO9h).
lussl+ h+s rcccntly m+dc + ccuplc cl m+|cr
huslncss prcpcsltlcns tc Crc+tl+ ln thc cncrgy scc-
tcr, cn thc ccc+slcn cl lrcsldcnt St|cp+n Ncslc's
vlslt tc Ncsccw, cn Dcccmhcr 1-14 (Scccr, 2OO9l).
ln thc cll scctcr, Lukcll +nd C+zprcmNclt lntcnd tc
+cqulrc st+kcs ln thc Adrl+tlc Oll llpcllnc (]ANAl),
whlch runs lrcm Omls+l| tc ncrthcrn lung+ry. 1hc
lussl+n gcvcrnmcnt h+s lcng scught tc rcvcrsc thc
plpcllnc's dlrcctlcn, sc +s tc usc lt lcr lussl+n cll
cxpcrts lrcm thc Adrl+tlc Sc+. ln thc g+s scctcr,
Ncsccw prcpcscs tc hulld +n cxtcnslcn cl thc
Scuth Strc+m plpcllnc thrcugh Crc+tl+. C+zprcm
h+s +skcd tc usc thc cxlstlng ln-ccuntry tr+nsmls-
slcn plpcllncs ln thc ccntcxt cl Scuth Strc+m,
lncludlng thc +hcvc mcntlcncd llln+crc lntcrccn-
ncctcr tcw+rd lung+ry. 1hls wculd prcvcnt thc usc
cl thc lntcrccnncctcr lcr Ll-h+ckcd prc|ccts, such
+s thc Ncw Lurcpc+n 1r+nsmlsslcn Systcm (NL1S)
prcpcscd hy NOL +nd ccncclvcd tc crc+tc + ccm-
mcn g+s tr+nsmlsslcn systcm cpcr+tcr ln Ccntr+l
+nd Scuth L+stcrn Lurcpc cr N+huccc, hut lt
wculd +lsc cut cll +n lmpcrt+nt prcspcctlvc llnk cl
Adrl+ LNC. ln cllcct, shculd C+zprcm cntcr Crc+tl+
thrcugh Scuth Strc+m, lt wculd llkcly prcss lcr
h+ltlng thc lrk lsl+nd LNC prc|cct +ltcgcthcr
(Scccr, 2OO9l), slncc thc Q+t+rl LNC thus shlppcd
ln wculd st+nd ln dlrcct ccmpctltlcn wlth thc
Scuth Strc+m g+s.
lnccnvcntlcn+l n+tur+l g+s dcvclcpmcnt h+s thc
pctcntl+l tc hc + g+mc-ch+ngcr ln thc Lurcpc+n g+s
huslncss. 1yplc+lly, unccnvcntlcn+l g+s rclcrs tc
pcckcts cl n+tur+l g+s tr+ppcd ln sh+lc rccks, lrcm
whlch lt c+n hc lrccd uslng + ncw drllllng tcchncl-
cgy, c+llcd hydr+ullc lr+cturlng, +lsc kncwn +s lr+c-
lng. 1hc hlgh cncrgy prlccs cl thc yc+rs up tc 2OO8
lcd tc sust+lncd lnvcstmcnt ln ccmp+nlcs t+pplng
lntc scurccs cthcrwlsc ccnsldcrcd tcc cxpcnslvc cr
ln+cccsslhlc tc dcvclcp. 1hc hlggcst pl+ycr ln thls
ncw llcld ls thc gl+nt cncrgy ccmp+ny LxxcnNchll,
whlch h+s hccn drllllng lcr tlght g+s cn hundrcds
cl thcus+nds cl +crcs ln Ncrth Amcrlc+, ln Cclcr+dc
+nd rltlsh Cclumhl+. ln Lurcpc, LxxcnNchll
cntcrcd ln Aprll 2OO8 + |clnt vcnturc wlth + llttlc
kncwn ccmp+ny Amcrlc+n ccmp+ny, l+lccn Oll +nd
C+s Ltd., whlch h+d + prcductlcn llccnsc lrcm thc
lung+rl+n gcvcrnmcnt lcr mcrc th+n 245,OOO +crcs
cl thc N+kc 1rcugh g+s rcscrvclrs, ln scuth c+stcrn
lung+ry, +t thc lcm+nl+n hcrdcr.
1hcsc rcscrvcs +rc vcry h+rd tc +cccss ,OOO
mctcrs dccp +nd +t hlgh tcmpcr+turc hut lmmcnsc.
Acccrdlng tc l+lccn, lts llccnsc +rc+ +lcnc ccnt+lns
+ rcscurcc cl scmc 44 trllllcn cuhlc lcct cl g+s. 1h+t
ls thrcc tlmcs +s l+rgc +s rlt+ln's prcvcn g+s
rcscrvcs (wj, 2OO8). lt dccs lndccd ccst hllllcns tc
prcducc g+s lrcm llclds cl thls scrt, hut thc g+lns
c+n hc hugc. Sc much sc th+t LxxcnNchll, thc
wcrld's l+rgcst cncrgy ccmp+ny, ccmplctcly lgncrcd
thc Lur+sl+n plpcllnc g+mc (lctcrscn, 2OO9+).
3&'&3&/$&4
|ury:/, /u|in/u (cd.), 2008. |ic/inc, |o/i|i: und
|oucr. 7/c |u|urc oj l/-kuiu lncry kc/u|ion,
|ondon (cn|rc jor lurocun kcjorm.
lcu|:/c wc//c, 200;. '|roocd ^u|u::o |ic/inc -
(c| lurocun |un/ |u:/in,' 2 jun. 200;.
lcu|:/c |rcc 1cn|ur (du), 200;. '(u:rom -
1rcc |o |oo| |ic/inc (uu:i|y,' loun|rcum
7oduy, 15 !uy 200;.
|/uucr, jucrcn, 200;. '|uu dcr 0|cc-|ic/inc im -
ci|/un,' lundc/|/u||, 8 0:|. 200;.
(u|/cdcrcr, (/ri|iun, 2008. '^u|u::o |ic/inc (o| -
kic |o `.; |i//ion,' kcu|cr, 2; !uy 2008.
lurrion, |c|c, 200;. 'l/ lncry |undin cc/ |o -
/i:/|ur| ^u|u::o |rojc:|,' kcu|cr, 28 |c|. 200;.
l/i:, lor, 200;u. 'kuiun (u (u| !uy ur (rou|iu -
|^( |rojc:|,' kcu|cr, 20 jun. 200;.
l/i:, lor, 200;|. '(rou|iu, ln|c|or cc ^o lc/uy jor -
|^( 7crminu/,' kcu|cr, , !ur. 200;.
!un/ojj, jcjjrcy, 200;. 'luruiun lncry c:uri|y,' -
(oun:i/ on |orcin kc/u|ion, c:iu/ kcor| ^o. ],.
!i|ro|u, 7u|iunu, 2008. '(u:rom |crc:|i|c on -
ln|crnu|ionu/ !ur/c|,' kuiun 1nu/y|i:u/ lic| ((u:-
rom |orcin lncry |o/i:y), ^o. ]1, 20 !uy 2008.
ojj/orc-|c:/no/oy.:om, 200;. '/|o/mun (u -
(ondcnu|c lcoi| |urcn| cu, kuiu'.
ojj/orc-|c:/no/oy.:om, 200;. 'ko||crdum |ui/d -
|^( (u|cuuy,' ,0 1r. 200;.
0i/oi:c, 2008. '/r/ (onjirmcd u |o:u|ion jor -
1driun |^(,' , 0:|. 2008.
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HARYARD BIACK SFA SFCURI1Y PRDCRAH-2009
l A l \ A l D
LACl SLA
S L C l l l 1 Y l l O C l A N
2009
|c|crcn, 1/cxundro, 200;u. 'wi// 1:cr|uijuni (u -
lxor| |o (/inu :u||/c ou|/ |rcum', (cn|ru/
1iu-(uu:uu ln|i|u|c 1nu/y|, 12 c|. 200;.
c|crcn, 1/cxundro, 200;|. '^u|u::o 1/cud oj ou|/ -
|rcum,' 1|/un|i: (oun:i/ (uuu.u:u.or), 0:|. 200;.
|c|crcn, 1/cxundro, 200;:. '7/c !o/o|o|-ki||cn|ro -
|ic/inc,' 7/c wu// |rcc| journu/, ; ^o|. 200;.
|c|crcn, 1/cxundro, 200;d. 'Ic| !orc lc/uy -
jor ^u|u::o,' 1|/un|i: (oun:i/ (uuu.u:u.or),
1 lc:. 200;.
kc||mun, 1ndrcu, 200;. '(crmuny luc (u -
|ic/inc |crmi| u luroc |rcc:c,' cuo|cr|cr.:om,
22 lc:. 200;.
kunncr, |/i/iu, 200;. '^ord |rcum |o |um l/ -
(u |y 2011, (u:rom uy,' cuo|cr|cr.:om,
20 jun. 200;.
ku/und-1/|uc//, 200;, '0|cc-|ic/inc -
koc/rcnucr/ uuj kuccn /uuj| un,' 20 1r. 200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;u. '(u:rom kc|cu/ -
/nujjordu|/c (o| oj |/c ou|/ |rcum |rojc:|,'
luruiu lui/y !oni|or, o/. 0, luc 2;, 12 |c|. 200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;|. 'umun-(cy/un |ic/inc -
|rojc:| lcincd |o li|cr| /u:u//|uni 0i/,' luruiu
lui/y !oni|or, o/. 0, luc 1;0, 2, c|. 200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;:. '7ur/cy 1 |ridc oj -
|o||/cnc:/ jor (uiun (u |o luroc,' luruiu
lui/y !oni|or, o/. 0, luc 1;,, 21 0:|. 200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;d. '1:cr|uijun :un kcor| |o -
!u/|i/c 0|ion jor i| (u lxor|,' luruiu lui/y
!oni|or, o/. 0, luc 1;], 22 0:|. 200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;c. 'w/i|c |rcum :un -
lc-!onoo/i:c |/c 7ur/i/ 7runi| oj (u |o luroc,'
luruiu lui/y !oni|or, o/. 0, luc 1;;, 2; 0:|. 200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;j. ':undinu|iun (o|crnmcn| -
1//ou kuo-(crmun ^ord |rcum |ic/inc,' luruiu
lui/y !oni|or, o/. 0, luc 20, 10 ^o|. 200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;. '^ord |rcum |ic/inc -
|rojc:| |i// /or| oj kcour:c,' luruiu lui/y
!oni|or, o/. 0, luc 20;, 12 ^o|. 200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;/. '!o:ou |u:/|ru:/ |rom -
|ru|cy |o |yu //ruinc (u 7runi| y|cm,'
luruiu lui/y !oni|or, o/. 0, luc 210, 2, ^o|. 200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;i. '7/rcc (cn|ru/ 1iun -
(oun|ric lnuuuru|c (u lxor| |ic/inc |o (/inu,'
luruiu lui/y !oni|or, o/. 0, luc 2,0,15 lc:.
200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;j. '|ru|ci: lm/i:u|ion oj |/c -
(cn|ru/ 1iu-(/inu |ic/inc, l,' luruiu lui/y
!oni|or, o/. 0, luc 2,1, 10 lc:. 200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;/. '|ru|ci: lm/i:u|ion oj |/c -
(cn|ru/ 1iu-(/inu |ic/inc, ll,' luruiu lui/y
!oni|or, o/. 0, luc 2,,, 18 lc:. 200;.
o:or, /udimir, 200;/. '!o:ou 7urc|in 1driu|i: -
lncry 7runor|u|ion |ijc/inc |o (cn|ru/ luroc,'
luruiu lui/y !oni|or, o/. 0, luc 2,,, 18 lc:. 200;.
|ru|jor, 200;u. '1:cr|uijun |oo/in u| (70 -
!cm|cr/i,' ; lc:. 200;.
|ru|jor, 200;|. 'lncry 1 ^u|uru/ (u (ur|c/,' -
; lc:. 200;.
|ru|jor, 200;:. '(cn|ru/ 1iu kuiu !o|c |o /cc -
/:|c/i|un in |inc,' 22.12.200;.
|ru|mun, //uu, 200;. '0|cc-|ic/inc o// |crci| -
2011 kcu/i|uc| cin,' lundc/|/u||, 28 lc:. 200;.
7orc//o, 1/cxundro, 2008. '^u|u::o (on|ru:|ion -
|u/cd |u:/ |o 2010,' loun|rcum 7oduy, 22 |c|.
2008.
ui.:om, 200;. 'ou|/ |rcum |o:u on !o:ou- -
icnnu 7u//,' 10 ^o|. 200;.
u|rcumon/inc.:om, 200;. '!cr/c/ |u/c ^ord -
|rcum uor|,' 2] jun. 200;.
cdomo|i, 200;. '|u|in |rooc /in |orcincr |o -
lc|c/o Iumu/ lcoi|,' kl1 ^o|o|i, 22 c|. 200;.
idu/on, lominiquc, 200;. 'll| in 7u// on |u/c in -
ou|/ |rcum |ic/inc', kcu|cr, ,0 0:|. 200;.
wu// |rcc| journu/ (wj), 2008. 'lxxon lcu/ |u| -
0|:urc (u lcoi| on !u,' 20 junc 2008.
Ioun, ki:/urd (cd.), 200;. lncry c:uri|y -
luroc ^cu |orcin |o/i:y (/u//cnc, 7uy/or c
|run:i kou|/cdc.
#*#-*0(3"1):
1) 1::ordin |o (u:rom, u/i/c |in/und, /o|u/iu, cr|iu
und |u/uriu u// imor| o|cr ;0 oj |/cir u jrom
kuiu, |u|c /i/c l|u/y, |run:c, komuniu, |/c ^c|/cr/und
und |c/ium u// dccnd jor /c |/un 25 on (u:rom.
2) 1/|/ou/ ocn/y cm|ru:in jrcc-mur/c| norm und
ru:|i:c, |/c mujor lurocun cncry :omunic
/u|c in ju:| |ccn rcin jor |/cir oun rcjcrcn|iu/
/on-|crm dcu/ und |ccn :on|un|/y cxc:|in |/c
coo/i|i:u/ |u:/in oj |/cir nu|ionu/ o|crnmcn|
(Ioun, 200; 5).
,) 7/c |c/uruiun u :rii oj 200 cndcd ui|/ (u:rom
|u/in u :on|ro//in |u/c in |c/7run(u:, |/c |c/uruiun
ic/inc monoo/y.
]) u|in /urdu (200;), '7ur/cy |uruc l:onomi:
ln|cru|ion wi|/ lruq', luruiu lui/y !oni|or, c|cm|cr
2;, |o/.0, iuc 12.