Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | July 9, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | July 9, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis UKs Manufacturing Production declined 0.8 percent in May. API crude oil inventories expected to fall 3.3 mn bbl Reuters. French Gov Budget Balance was at a deficit of 72.6 bn Euros in May. European equities are trading higher today on the back of favorable earnings results from US which beat the estimates in yesterdays trade. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures trading in the green. UKs Manufacturing Production declined 0.8 percent in May as compared to fall of 0.2 percent a month earlier. Trade Balance was at a deficit of 8.5 billion Pounds in May with respect to deficit of 8.4 billion Pounds in prior month. French Gov Budget Balance was at a deficit of 72.6 billion Euros in May as against a deficit of 66.8 billion Euros a month ago. Spot gold prices rose around 1 percent today on the back of upbeat global markets. However, strength in the Dollar Index (DX) coupled with fall in the SPDR gold holdings capped sharp gains in prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1260/oz and hovered around $1248.16/oz today till 4:30pm IST today. In the Indian markets, prices gained around 0.4 percent but appreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp upside in prices. Taking cues from rise in gold prices, Spot silver prices increased around 0.2 percent today. However, sharp positive movement in prices was capped as a result of downside in base metals group along with strength in the DX. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $19.50/oz and was trading at $19.08/oz today till 4:30pm IST. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in prices on the MCX. The base metals complex traded lower today on account of decline in UKs manufacturing production data coupled with strength in the DX. However, optimistic global markets along with fall in LME inventories except Aluminum cushioned sharp fall in prices. On the domestic front, appreciation in the Rupee exerted downside pressure on prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices declined around 0.2 percent today taking cues from strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of expectations of decline in API crude oil inventories coupled with unrest and political turmoil in Egypt. On the domestic bourses, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure on prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 3.3 million barrels for the week ending on 5th July 2013. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 9 July 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5834.60 19399.37 14295.44 1828.63 15866.70

5864.95 19486.00 14472.90 1831.35 15983.69

5834.60 19380.25 14186.03 1815.03 15735.49

5859.00 19439.48 14472.90 1830.35 15735.49

0.82 0.59 2.58 0.74 -0.23

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 9 July 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

84.49 1.2869 59.80

84.60 1.2898 60.48

84.31 1.2844 59.71

84.535 1.2862 60.30

0.14 -0.05 -0.63

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 9 July 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - July13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - July13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX July13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX July13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1236.29 1234.70 26147.00 19.04 0.19035 40441 103.00 107.27 6244 6824.00 416.50 1875.00 112.35 2068 125.45 13425 814.60 1798.00 107.60

1260.01 1254.50 26296.0 19.50 0.19455 40795 103.40 107.49 6275 6870.00 416.50 1879.75 112.40 2087 125.50 13517 814.60 1807.75 107.60

1232.44 1234.40 26147.0 18.97 0.18935 40320 102.71 106.90 6176 6739.00 410.10 1857.00 110.80 2042 123.20 13250 800.40 1783.75 105.70

1248.16 1254.50 26200.00 19.08 0.1934 40382 102.98 107.21 6219 6743.25 410.40 1857.50 111.10 2042 123.25 13255 801.60 1784.75 106.15

0.99 1.59 0.36 0.21 1.66 -0.01 -0.16 -0.20 -0.50 -1.28 -1.85 -0.88 -1.46 -1.53 -1.87 -1.41 -1.87 -1.01 -1.62

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | July 9, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook

In the evening session, we expect precious metals and crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of upbeat global markets. However, strength in the DX will cap sharp gains in prices. Base metals pack will trade lower on account of unfavorable manufacturing and industrial production data from UK which raised concerns over the demand for the metals. Crude oil prices will take further cues from expectations of decline in API crude oil inventories.

Technical Outook for evening session 9 July 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas July13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc July13 Lead July13 Aluminum July13 Nickel July13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 25880 1221 39700 18.72 6110 101.2 218 6670 405 109.7 121.5 105 786 Support 1 26020 1235 40000 19.01 6160 102.2 222 6720 409 110.5 122.6 105.7 795 CMP 26209 1249.6 40350 19.16 6225 103.04 224.8 6762 411.7 111.3 123.5 106.4 804 Resistance1 26310 1258 40800 19.53 6270 103.95 228 6870 416 112.3 124.4 107.4 812 Resistance 2 26450 1275 41250 19.93 6330 104.9 231 6910 419 113.4 125.5 108.7 825

Important Events for Today

Indicator BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y CPI y/y PPI y/y Manufacturing Production m/m Trade Balance ECOFIN Meetings NIESR GDP Estimate JOLTS Job Openings Country UK China China UK UK Euro UK US Time (IST) 4:31am 7:00am 7:00am 2:00pm 2:00pm All day 7:30pm 7:30pm Actual 1.4% 2.7% -2.7% -0.8% -8.5B Forecast 2.5% -2.5% 0.5% -8.4B 3.81M Previous 1.8% 2.1% -2.9% -0.2% -8.2B 0.6% 3.76M Impact Medium High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium