Dick Morley

October 2011 morley@barn.org

Who Am I?
Skier Physics PLC NCMS Harley-Davidson 25 children Angel Machinist

My office

My commute

NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn.org

org .The Real Problems Global competition Time to market Cost Rapid growth Continuous rapid tech change Problems Fashion / fads Management demands / instant gratification Change – always Blockers Open / closed NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn.

5 hrs. With teletype interface and the Fortran language. Japan & Africa Round-the-world trip in 7 days. between Tokyo and Kobe Electric needle treatment w/o pain or medication Automobiles w/o horse Advanced education Countrywide electricity distribution NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn. Inc. love talk over 10 miles Picture telephone Shopping by picture telephone Electricity as fuel Bullet train 2. Copyright © 2007 Rockwell Automation. However. global travel for everyone Warship in air Air conditioner Advanced voice transmitter. the needed technology will not be economically feasible for the average home. All rights reserved.org .Technology Predictions: 1954 Popular Mechanics Magazine Scientists from the RAND Corp have created this model to illustrate how a “home computer” could look like in the year 2004. the computer will be easy to use.593 (+) Worldwide wireless telephone Worldwide color photo instant transfer Rise of China. Predictions Japanese 1901 80 / 20 1901 / .

1977 “640k ought to be enough for anybody. 1949 “But what … is it good for?” Engineer at IBM commenting on the microchip.” Ken Olson. 1968 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.593 (cont).” Popular Mechanics.” Thomas Watson. Future History “I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers. – Green Sahara Extermination of flies & fleas Cultivation by electricity of tropical plants in Greenland! Worldwide railroad network Natural disaster control Ø Extinct wild animals Rubber tire trains in the air and underground Everyone taller than 6 ft.” Bill Gates. 1981 Predicting the Future Weather forecasting Science fiction Delphi survey Groundhog Wild cards NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn.1901 / . 1943 “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 5 tons.org .

Cycles of Growth 1995 Predictions Japan as a financial center Moore marches on Gene splicing and dicing in wide use NA a single economic entity Mass production becomes digital and POS Nuclear power returns Education in turmoil Two hours to anywhere Communication RF WWW IT revolution Bandwidth NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn.org .

Bandwidth (BW) ≠ Time (Power Law) BW FedEx CNN WWW Process Low Refresh High Reduce the Need iPad Predictive Autonomous Industrial Bus Hierarchy NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn.org .

behavior Costs / Complexity Costs History Old Technologies Complexity Counterproductive Business Practices Lowering costs is the key to prosperity Mass production lowers costs Corporate culture modifies human behavior Management science exists? The business book NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn.History – Complexity Relays Transistors Minis PLCs Cells MES / MRP Tablets States vs.org .

Point of sale processes NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn.Simulation Stagger through life Virtual into real My barn Models and simulation Predictive Postdictive Understanding Fun Energy Innovations Coming Grid computing Wireless / batteries Virtual bandwidth Quantum communications Femto CAD / CAM 3D mfg.org .

000 equiv in 2020 More SFI orgs for ed Spamming Becomes positive Beyond MMXX Molecular computing Quantum dots Artificial Life Evolution Behavior Intelligence What Manufacturers Need Customer Base Cost reduction? Unfair advantage Time to market 10x tech NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn.org .not an art form anymore NASDAQ accepts foreign companies.. solicits them Mechatronics gains respect PC reversal… insurance and crime not solved by wishes Market lowers to 6000 and then to 30..Wild Cards Semiconductor No landline phones — all uplink satellites foundries at Global population dispersion individual companies Smartskin planes 59% of USA not working in large companies Ink jet printed autos for custom paint jobs Permanent Antarctic residents Engineering productivity doubles...

org .Challenges to Manufacturing Culture inhibitions Top-down organizations Fads and fashion Hiring the obedient Tiger Beetles Run and stop Info bandwidth Bio model Elmer / Bugs / binoculars The Technology More impact than politicians Has legs Work defines… tech changes work Invention is the mother of necessity! NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn.

You… Must be able to innovate.org . adapt and understand your customer Must communicate with the user/owner Must use left and right brain Must have lots of luck Summary Is Morley a nut? Wake up call Invention is the mother of success Goals are the emergent property of process The only way to create wealth is with new technology! NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn.

org .org NEI Int’l Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 • morley@barn.morley@barn.

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