New Drone Assault Knocks US-Pakistan Relations By Zachary Fillingham* !DN-!nDe"th News#iew"oint $%R%N$% &!

DN' - US (rone strikes ha)e long *een a sticking "oint in US-Pakistan relations+ $o the %*ama a(ministration, they are a key tool in the -ight against terrorism, e)i(ent in the )arious high-ranking comman(ers they.)e eliminate( -rom the regional militancy e/uation+ $o !slama*a(, howe)er, they re"resent a *reach o- state so)ereignty, an( their ten(ency to kill ci)ilians ser)es to un(ermine go)ernment writ in Pakistan.s tri*al territories+ !- (rone strikes are the crack running along the e(i-ice o- US-Pakistan relations, then US ai( is the "laster use( to mask it+ $he %*ama a(ministration /uietly resume( a 01+2 *illion military ai( "ackage to Pakistan last month &%cto*er 3415'+ %n hol( since the 3411 %sama Bin 6a(en rai(, the resum"tion suggeste( that Pakistan.s new Nawa7 Shari- a(ministration woul( (e-er *ack to the ol( (ynamic o- 8US strikes, Pakistan con(emns9 with regar(s to the issue o- e:traterritorial (rone strikes+ An( it might ha)e (one ;ust that i- not -or a case o- "oor timing+ 6ast week &No)em*er 3, 3415', a-ter -our years o- trying, the US manage( to kill <akimullah =ehsu(, the lea(er o- the $ehrik-e-$ali*an &$$P', in a (rone attack in North >a7iristan+ $he strike came (ays a-ter Prime =inister Nawa7 Shari- announce( that go)ernment negotiators were hea(e( to the tri*al areas to initiate a "eace "rocess? an( weeks a-ter <akimullah himsel- tol( the BB@ he woul( *e willing to negotiate with !slama*a( &al*eit "ushing an in-le:i*le (eman( oesta*lishing Sharia law throughout Pakistan'+ $he <akimullah strike has "lunge( Prime =inister Shari- into a tra" o- his own making+ <e cam"aigne( hea)ily on en(ing US (rone strikes (uring the general election that swe"t him into "ower, an( though his recent tri" to >ashington was long on "raise -or US-Pakistan coo"eration an( soli(arity, he still ma(e it clear to re"orters that he ha( stresse( the nee( -or en(ing (rone strikes in his talks with Presi(ent %*ama+ !n another case o- curious timing, the Shari- )isit coinci(e( with a leake( memo *eing "u*lishe( in the >ashington Post+ $he memo in /uestion outline( tacit coo"eration -rom "ast Pakistani go)ernments on US (rone strikes within Pakistan+ All this ser)es to increase the "otential se)erity o- (i"lomatic -allout -rom the <akimullah strike+ Prime =inister Shari- has essentially le-t himsel- with no other o"tion than to come (own har( on >ashington+ <e has alrea(y organi7e( )arious high-le)el meetings with his army chie- o- sta-- an( (i"lomats, with a state( aim o- re-assessing Pakistan.s relationshi" with the Unite( States+ %""osition "arties are also -anning the -lames+ !mran Khan.s Pakistan $ehreek-e-!nsa- &P$!' is calling -or another *locka(e o- NA$% su""ly lines into A-ghanistan, e)en threatening to act in(e"en(ently in its ca"acity as ruling "arty o- Khy*er-Pakhtunkhwa+ $he "ros"ect o- another shut(own o- su""ly routes through Pakistan woul( "ro*a*ly *e taken seriously *y the %*ama a(ministration, as these routes are e:"ecte( to "lay an im"ortant "art in the scaling (own o- NA$% troo" le)els in A-ghanistan o)er the ne:t year+ Prime =inister Shari- has yet to comment one way or another on the P$! "lan+ Nascent Peace Process Suffers $he other casualty o- the <akimullah strike is the nascent "eace "rocess, which some woul( argue was (oome( to *egin with gi)en the -un(amental incom"ati*ility *etween the $$P.s (eman(s o- Sharia law an( guarantees within the Pakistani constitution+ For one, the go)ernment.s im"otence as a guarantor o- security -or a "eace "rocess has *een lai( *are+ >hether one *elie)es Prime =inister Shari-.s claims he recei)e( a US "le(ge to halt strikes

(uring "eace talks or not, the en( result is the sameA >ashington *elie)es that Pakistan shoul( *e -ighting, not talking, with militants in its tri*al regions+ %--icials in !slama*a( can thus con(emn the -allacy o- US -oreign "olicy all they want, *ut it won.t change the -act that time is now nee(e( -or the $$P to come *ack to the negotiating ta*le, an( this interme(iate "erio( will likely *e marke( *y a wa)e o- re"risal attacks within Pakistan+ Some me(ia outlets ha)e suggeste( that the <akimullah strike coul( actually en( u" assisting the "eace "rocess, "ointing to the in-le:i*ility o- <akimullah.s )iews an( the e:istence o- more amena*le "ersonalities waiting in the wings+ Khan Sai(, also known as 8Sa;na,9 is one cite( e:am"le+ <e *ecame the grou".s secon(-in-comman( a-ter >aliur Rehman was kille( *y a US (rone strike in North >a7iristan in 3415+ A more likely result in the short term howe)er is that the new lea(er, whether Khan Sai( or Asmatullah Shaheen Bhittani, will (e-er to the more trie(-an(-teste( metho( o- going on the o--ensi)e to consoli(ate su""ort within the mo)ement+ Peace o--ers, "articularly those in)ol)ing ma;or concessions, generally e:ten( -rom lea(ers with the "ersonal authority to silence ine)ita*le (issenters within their organi7ation+ !ronically enough gi)en his *rutal mo(us o"eran(i, <akimullah =ehsu( was more o- a -it -or "eace than whoe)er his successor will *e - at least -or the time *eing+ !n sum, the assassination o- <akimullah =ehsu( has shi-te( the likelihoo( o- success in $PP-!slama*a( "eace talks -rom 8not likely9 to 8im"ossi*le9 o)er the short term+ !t has also "ut Prime =inister Shari- on the s"ot, as he now must choose *etween *eing a lea(er who *acks u" his tough anti-(rone strike rhetoric with action, or one whose rote o*;ections ring as hollow as those who he recently re"lace(+ >hate)er -orm his (ecision takes, it will (e-initely *e setting the tone -or -uture relations *etween >ashington an( !slama*a(+ *Zachary Fillingham is a contri*utor to Beo"oliticalmonitor+com+ A )ersion o- this article a""eare( on Beo"oliticalmonitor+com on No)em*er C, 3415, an( is *eing "u*lishe( *y arrangement with them+ D!DN-!nDe"thNews E No)em*er C, 3415F Picture cre(itA Blo*alPolitical=onitor 3415 !DN-!nDe"thNews Analysis $hat =atters Sen( your comment Su*scri*e to !DN newsletter Follow us on $witter an( Face*ookA htt"AGGtwitter+comG!nDe"thNews htt"AGGwww+-ace*ook+comG!DN+BoingDee"er