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to be
on the same timescale as t
0
. Thus, we should use a very broad starting probability distribution over t
a
distribution in which only a small portion oI the probability mass is between 10
9
years and 10
10
years,
leaving a large majority oI the probability mass in scenarios where either: (a) t
t
0
, or (b) t
~~ t
0
.
Carter suggests that we can next rule out scenarios in which t
t
0
with high probability, since iI
technological civilizations typically take Iar less than 4 10
9
years to evolve, our observations oI Iinding
ourselves as the Iirst technological civilization on Earth, recently evolved at this late date, would be
highly uncommon. This leaves only scenarios in which either t t
0
(a small region), or t
~~ t
0
(a large
region). Due to observer-selection eIIects, intelligent observers under either oI these scenarios would
observe that intelligent liIe evolved within their own world`s habitable period (even iI, as in Hard
Intelligence, t