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Triveni Turbine
CMP: ` 57.5
BSE Sensex NSE Nifty Scrip Details Equity Face Value Market Cap 52 week High/Low Avg. Volume (no) BSE Code NSE Symbol Bloomberg Code Reuters Code ` 330mn ` 1/` 19bn USD 306mn ` 69 / 45 192,568 533655 TRITURBINE TRIV IN TRVT.BO 21,276 6,329
DOLAT CAPITAL
Target Price: ` 66
Accumulate
Triveni Turbine, one of the leading global manufacturers of sub 30 MW turbines, is at inflexion point. The domestic business which was the key driver of earnings has had significant erosion owing to the industrial slowdown and its impact on the capex cycle. We believe that this is on the verge of stabilising now onwards with uptick possible in FY15E, the lead signals of which will show up post elections in our opinion. Even as the domestic revenues contracted, the company has stepped up in the exports market with the GE JV. Trivenis strength being its technology is further enhanced with its JV with GE. We believe its efforts in international markets are expected to bore fruits in FY15E. Focus on exports and after market revenues coupled with cost containment has helped it to partly compensate for the decline in domestic market. Triveni is a technology driven company with consistent focus on upgradation to suit the market needs. The company has designed hybrid turbines which enables it to offer better value proposition to clients both in terms of efficiency and cost. Triveni has an inhouse developed technology for the upto 30MW turbines and its partnership with GE for the 30-100MW turbines has further strengthened its product offering. Partnership by a global major like GE speaks highly of Trivenis manufacturing capabilities. Triveni has a strong presence (~58% market share) in the sub 30MW Indian turbine market. Importantly its share in this segment is significantly higher than its closest competitor viz. Siemens. With its JV with GE, we expect Triveni to significantly ramp up in the international markets as well. The company has also had a breakthrough in the international segment for its 30MW plus turbines. Triveni has extremely strong financials with zero debt and return ratios of ~40%. Importantly, pricing discipline and significant after-market revenue allows it to have superior margins of over 20% on a consistent basis. We expect growth to pick up in FY15E on back of strong order book of ` 5.2 bn. Operating leverage led benefits would enable it to grow its PAT by 35% YoY to `1.2 bn in FY15E. On our EPS estimate of ` 3.7 for FY15E, the stock trades at P/E multiple of 16x. We initiate coverage on the stock with ACCUMULATE rating with a target price of ` 66 per share, implying 15% upside from current levels.
PAT % Growth EPS(`) % Growth PER (x) ROANW(%) ROACE (%) 1,066 17.1 3.2 17.1 17.8 100.2 120.5 743 (30.3) 2.3 (30.3) 25.5 43.6 61.7 1,003 35.0 3.0 35.0 18.9 43.2 62.6 1,221 21.7 3.7 21.7 15.5 39.3 57.4
India Research
Shareholding Pattern Promoter MF/Banks/FIs FIIs Public / Others 71.94 6.09 17.04 4.93
110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Jun-13 Feb-13 Oct-13 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Feb-14
Triveni
Sensex
Financials
Year FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Net Sales % Growth EBIDTA OPM % 6,568 4.0 1,635 24.9 5,412 (17.6) 1,150 21.2 6,661 23.1 1,520 22.8 7,702 15.6 1,815 23.6
Figures in ` mn Sr. Analyst: Pawan Parakh Tel : +9122 4096 9712 E-mail: pawanp@dolatcapital.com
March 6, 2014
India Research
AT Inflection Point !
DOLAT CAPITAL
Triveni Turbine, one of the leading global manufacturers for the sub 30 MW turbines, is at inflexion point. The domestic business which was the key driver of earnings has had significant erosion owing to the industrial slowdown and its impact on the capex cycle. We believe that this is on the verge of stabilising now onwards with uptick possible in FY15E, the lead signals of which will show up post elections in our opinion. Even as the domestic revenues contracted, the company has stepped up in the exports market with the GE JV. Trivenis strength being its technology is further enhanced with its JV with GE. We believe its efforts in international markets are expected to bore fruits in FY15E. Focus on exports and after market revenues coupled with cost containment has helped it to partly compensate for the decline in domestic market. We believe that the medium to long term prospects for the company remain intact, and have actually turned stronger having survived the slowdown. Notably, even in the slowdown period, it has maintained return on equity higher of 30% and generated free cash flows. The technological capability has been significantly enhanced through the tie up with GE in the 30MW plus segment, and that shall be a key driver for the exports market. Triveni has one of the highest margins and return ratios in the listed capital goods space. Improvement in order book levels will lead to strong revenue growth and thereby operating leverage led improvement in margins in FY15E. Consequently we expect to see 35% YoY growth in PAT for FY15E. We initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy rating with a target price of Rs66 per share, implying 15% upside from current levels.
March 6, 2014
Triveni Turbine
India Research
DOLAT CAPITAL
Waste heat recovery (WHR) and Combined Cycle Power Plant (CCPP) Captive/ Independent Power plant
Cement and Metals sector with heavy usage of power. Use of coal or biomass as feedstock for generating power for commercial purposes Solar Thermal, Geothermal
Harnessing the heat energy from nonconventional energy resources through steam power Generation.
The cogeneration/ CCPP find usage across all process industries like Sugar, Oil& Gas and Metals amongst others. Triveni has been one of the leading player in the cogeneration market with c.150 turbines having been supplied to sugar sector so far. Apart from Sugar, Triveni has been active with sectors like Steel, Pulp & Paper, Textiles and Chemicals. These are typically the industries characterised by high load variations and require constant/ reliable power supply. In addition, to process industries, steam turbines are required for captive/ Independent power generation from Coal, Biomass or Municipal waste. Coal is the conventional source of fuel and is used from generating power both on small and large scale basis. However Biomass and Municipal waste based power plants are small in size and Triveni has a dominant presence in this segment. Triveni has installed turbines based on Biomass/ Municipal waste in India as well as international geographies like Spain, UK, Africa, Thailand and South Korea. March 6, 2014 Triveni Turbine
3
India Research
DOLAT CAPITAL
March 6, 2014
Triveni Turbine
India Research
Source: Company, Dolat Research
DOLAT CAPITAL
Exposed to Capex cycle - Order booking contracts but enquiries remain buoyant
Trivenis business is highly exposed to the Industrial capex cycle and the prevailing business environment. The demand for Cogeneration/ Combined cycle plants primarily emanates from the industrial expansion either Greenfield or Brownfield. All process industries that require or generate steam would go in for onsite generation of power which is both efficient and economical. Weak macro-economic scenario coupled with rising interest rates have led to a significant slowdown in the industrial capex and thereby the demand environment for Triveni. Exhibit 4: Declining CG IIP and Trivenis order booking
March 6, 2014
Triveni Turbine
India Research
Exhibit 5: PMI - Economy bottoming out
DOLAT CAPITAL
As per industry sources, the market size of less than 30MW turbines has reduced from c.1400 MW in FY11 to 670MW in FY13 and it is estimated that the same is likely to further contract to 400-500MW in FY14E. A substantial part of this contraction is attributed to the decline in the Captive Power segment, wherein several leading metal companies have migrated from being a small captive power producer to being a large independent power producer. Additionally, rising interest rates and tightening of credit to SME sector have also led to slow investment decision making. Despite a contraction in installation, the enquiry base for Triveni grew 12% in FY13 and has remained broadly flat in FY14E. Exhibit 6: Decline in industry size (MW)
March 6, 2014
Triveni Turbine
India Research
Exhibit 7: Rising interest rates
DOLAT CAPITAL
Our interaction with industry leaders suggests that we are apparently at the bottom of the economic cycle and the probability of a recovery post the elections seems high. The likely reversal in the rate cycle could also trigger several small expansion projects (currently on hold) which augur well for Industrial turbine maker like Triveni. We have assumed a flat growth in domestic order inflows for FY15E, which could see significant upward revision in the above event.
March 6, 2014
Triveni Turbine
India Research
Source: Company, Dolat Research
DOLAT CAPITAL
In the international markets, Triveni primarily competes with turbines suppliers from Europe, Japan and Brazil. According to the management, lower cost overheads led by continuous value engineering initiatives and labour arbitrage enables it to be more competitive vis-s-vis its peers. Trivenis technology tie-up with GE coupled with its exiting strong installed base in several countries significantly increases its acceptance in the international market. In the last two years, the company has increased its export revenues from ` 660 mn in FY11 to ` 1.7 bn in FY13 and given Trivenis increasing geographic reach we expect its contribution in revenues to increase going ahead. Exhibit 9: Exports growth in order inflow
March 6, 2014
Triveni Turbine
India Research
DOLAT CAPITAL
March 6, 2014
Triveni Turbine
India Research
Source: Company, Dolat Research
DOLAT CAPITAL
Source: Company, Dolat Research FY12 1,349 116 96 -398 121 -5 1,279 -134 1,145 FY13 1,567 123 27 -488 -350 -11 867 -32 836 FY14E 1,092 126 8 -350 -144 0 734 -100 634 FY15E 1,486 130 13 -483 104 0 1,250 -100 1,150 FY16E 1,808 137 15 -588 211 0 1,583 -100 1,483
Trivenis order booking and consequent revenue growth has been impacted in FY14E as macro-economic slowdown led to slow decision making and thereby significant delays in enquiries converting into orders. This led to c.20% YoY decline in revenues and 13% YoY decline in order inflow for 9mFY14. While we continue to believe that order flows from domestic markets are likely to be depressed until the revival of capex cycle, we believe that international markets are likely to drive order flows for Triveni in FY15E. We expect the GEs wide marketing network coupled with Trivenis aggressive marketing efforts (in the African and Latin American markets) and cost competitiveness should bear fruits in FY15E. Consequently we expect to 23% YoY growth in revenues and 11% growth in orders inflows for Triveni in FY15E. Exhibit 14: Triveni revenue trend
March 6, 2014
Triveni Turbine
10
India Research
Source: Company, Dolat Research
DOLAT CAPITAL
Valuations: Post a decline in earnings in FY14E, we expect growth to return back in FY15E on the back of expected growth in export order inflows. Incrementally, any post election revival in capex cycle could provide further upsides to our order inflow and revenue estimates. Triveni is a technology driven company with strong competitive advantages. It is the leader in the Indian industrial turbine market with strong margin profile and return ratios - which is otherwise a rarity in the capital goods space.We arrive at a Target price of ` 66 per share which is the average of P/E and DCF based valuation (refer exhibit 16). Exhibit 15: Triveni PE band
March 6, 2014
Triveni Turbine
11
India Research
Exhibit 16: Valuation basis
Particulars Risk free rate Risk premium Beta (x) WACC (%) Terminal growth rate Sum of discounted FCFF (Rsmn) Less: net debt (Rsmn) Total valuation (Rsmn) DCF based value per share FY16E EPS Target P/E P/E based value Fair value per share
Source: Dolat Research
DOLAT CAPITAL
8.5% 5.0% 1.0 13.5% 5.0% 20,238 -1,504 21,743 65.9 3.7 18.0 66.6 66.3
March 6, 2014
Triveni Turbine
12
India Research
INCOME STATEMENT Particulars Net Sales Total Income Total Expenditure Raw Material Employee Expenses Other Expenses Other Income EBIDTA (Excl. Other Income) EBIDTA (Incl. Other Income) Interest Gross Profit Depreciation Profit Before Tax & EO Items Profit Before Tax Tax Net Profit BALANCE SHEET Particulars Sources of Funds Equity Capital Preference Capital Other Reserves Net Worth Secured Loans Loan Funds Deferred Tax Liability Total Capital Employed Mar13 330 28 1,084 1,442 5 5 78 1,525 Mar14E 330 28 1,607 1,965 0 0 75 2,040 Mar15E 330 28 2,315 2,673 0 0 75 2,748 Mar13 6,568 6,568 4,933 3,804 538 592 81 1,635 1,716 27 1,689 123 1,567 1,566 500 1,066 Mar14E 5,412 5,412 4,262 3,071 568 622 77 1,150 1,227 8 1,219 126 1,092 1,092 350 743 Mar15E 6,661 6,661 5,142 3,797 633 712 109 1,520 1,629 13 1,616 130 1,486 1,486 483 1,003
DOLAT CAPITAL
` mn Mar16E 7,702 7,702 5,887 4,390 693 804 145 1,815 1,960 15 1,945 137 1,808 1,808 588 1,221 CASH FLOW Particulars Profit before tax Depreciation & w.o. Net Interest Exp Direct taxes paid Chg. in Working Capital Other (A) CF from Opt. Activities Capex Free Cash Flow Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (B) CF from Invt. Activities Inc./(Dec.) in Debt Interest exp net Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (C) CF from Financing Net Change in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances E-estimates IMPORTANT RATIOS Particulars Mar13 Mar14E (A) Measures of Performance (%) Contribution Margin EBIDTA Margin (excl. O.I.) 24.9 21.2 EBIDTA Margin (incl. O.I.) 26.1 22.7 Interest / Sales 0.4 0.1 Gross Profit Margin 25.7 22.5 Tax/PBT 31.9 32.0 Net Profit Margin 16.2 13.7 (B) As Percentage of Net Sales Excise Duty % of Gross Sales Raw Material Employee Expenses Other Expenses Mar15E Mar16E Mar13 1,567 123 27 (488) (350) (11) 867 (32) 836 25 (7) (356) (27) (311) (694) 167 118 285 Mar14E 1,092 126 8 (350) (144) 0 734 (100) 634 (20) (120) (8) (8) (219) (235) 378 285 663 Mar15E 1,486 130 13 (483) 104 0 1,250 (100) 1,150 0 (100) 0 (13) (296) (309) 841 663 1,504 Mar16E 1,808 137 15 (588) 211 0 1,583 (100) 1,483 0 (100) 0 (15) (359) (374) 1,109 1,504 2,614
Applications of Funds Gross Block 1,804 Less: Accumulated Depreciation 656 Net Block 1,148 Capital Work in Progress 1 Investments 130 Current Assets, Loans & Advances Inventories 665 Sundry Debtors 1,172 Cash and Bank Balance 285 Loans and Advances 562 sub total 2,684 Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions Current Liabilities Provisions sub total Net Current Assets Total Assets E-estimates 1,867 572 2,439 245 1,525
1,805 782 1,023 100 150 623 964 663 445 2,695
1,905 912 993 100 150 730 1,095 1,504 548 3,877
2,005 1,049 956 100 150 739 1,161 2,614 528 5,040
(C) Measures of Financial Status Interest Coverage (x) 63.0 Average Cost Of Debt (%) 545.0 Debtors Period (days) 65.1 Closing stock (days) 37.0 Inventory Turnover Ratio (x) 9.9 Fixed Assets Turnover (x) 3.6 Working Capital Turnover (x) 26.8 Non Cash Working Capital (` Mn) (39.8) (D) Measures of Investment EPS (`) (excl EO) EPS (`) CEPS (`) DPS (`) Dividend Payout (%) Profit Ploughback (%) Book Value (`) RoANW (%) RoACE (%) RoAIC (%) (Excl Cash & Invest.) (E) Valuation Ratios CMP (`) P/E (x) Market Cap. (` Mn.) MCap/ Sales (x) EV (` Mn.) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBDITA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend Yield (%) E-estimates
3.2 3.2 3.6 0.8 24.7 75.3 4.4 100.2 120.5 142
3.0 3.0 3.4 0.8 25.0 75.0 8.1 43.2 62.6 114
3.7 3.7 4.1 0.9 25.0 75.0 10.7 39.3 57.4 163
March 6, 2014
Triveni Turbine
13
DOLAT CAPITAL
Upside above 20% Upside above 5% and up to 20% Upside of upto 5% or downside of upto 15% Downside of more than 15%
Analyst Amit Khurana, CFA Amit Purohit Kunal Dalal Milind Bhangale Pawan Parakh Priyank Chandra Rahul Jain Rajiv Pathak Prachi Save Associates Afshan Sayyad Avinash Kumar Pranav Joshi Manish Raj Equity Sales/Trading Purvag Shah Vikram Babulkar Kapil Yadav Parthiv Dalal Jatin Padharia P. Sridhar Chandrakant Ware Aadil R. Sethna
Sector/Industry/Coverage Co-Head Equities and Head of Research Consumer Auto & Auto Ancillaries Pharma Capital Good Oil & Gas IT Services Financials Derivatives Sector/Industry/Coverage Economy, Agrochemicals Capital Goods Financials Metals & Mining Designation Principal Co-Head Equities and Head of Sales AVP - Institutional Sales AVP - Institutional Sales Institutional Sales - FII Head Sales Trading Senior Sales Trader Head of Derivatives
E-mail amit@dolatcapital.com amitp@dolatcapital.com kunald@dolatcapital.com milindb@dolatcapital.com pawanp@dolatcapital.com priyank@dolatcapital.com rahul@dolatcapital.com rajiv@dolatcapital.com prachi@dolatcapital.com E-mail
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