05/30/2014

Copyright 2014 Arbor Research & Trading, Inc. All rights reserved. This material is for your private information, and we are not soliciting any action based
upon it. This material should not be redistributed or replicated in any form without the prior consent of Arbor. The material is based upon information that
we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

June Seasonality Major Currency Pairs
Changes since the Close of the Prior Month
Seasonal trends offer few strong biases for June
among our selection of currency pairs. The picture
for all seven pairs is rather choppy throughout the
month.
USDNOK appears to have a bullish bias but actually
closed higher in only 44% of years. AUDUSD does
tend to see rallies during the third week. The pair
rose in 60% of years by day 15, up 0.4% on average.

5 Day Holding Periods
The 5 day holding period analysis shows few strong directional skews. AUDUSD has seen declines after day 15 in
70% of years with an average change of 0.54%. USDNOK has declined following day 17 in 67% of years with an
average change of 0.2%.
EURJPY saw a modest bullish skew, rising after day 5 in 68% of years by 0.2% on average. AUDUSD rallied after
day 10 in 60% of years with an average gain of 0.4%.
The charts (below) highlight the average change and instance of positive changes for the five days after each
trading day. See the tables on the bottom of page 2 for details.

Copyright 2013 Arbor Research & Trading, Inc. All rights reserved. This material is for your private information, and we are not soliciting any action based
upon it. This material should not be redistributed or replicated in any form without the prior consent of Arbor. The material is based upon information that
we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

August14,2013

Average Changes from Previous Monthly Close
Average Cumulative % Change
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EURUSD 0.13 0.13 0.06 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.20 0.22 0.18 0.19 0.25 0.21 0.07 0.12 0.26 0.29 0.27 0.18 0.10 0.24
GBPUSD 0.07 0.03 0.19 0.25 0.24 0.32 0.30 0.20 0.23 0.27 0.12 0.17 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.23 0.29 0.20 0.24 0.20
USDJPY 0.00 0.14 0.08 0.13 0.17 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.28 0.15 0.07 0.09 0.33 0.30 0.24 0.17
AUDUSD 0.03 0.09 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.14 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.12 0.25 0.27 0.40 0.17 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.15
USDCAD 0.08 0.02 0.11 0.03 0.09 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.05 0.11 0.14 0.07 0.10 0.15 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.14
EURJPY 0.12 0.07 0.11 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.18 0.22 0.08 0.15 0.12 0.02 0.16 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.23 0.19 0.04 0.11
USDNOK 0.01 0.22 0.08 0.05 0.07 0.19 0.30 0.32 0.26 0.23 0.28 0.21 0.04 0.22 0.38 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.38 0.43

% Positive Average Cumulative % Change
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EURUSD 38% 54% 51% 56% 54% 49% 46% 44% 44% 51% 46% 46% 49% 46% 46% 41% 46% 51% 51% 46%
GBPUSD 49% 51% 49% 49% 44% 53% 40% 44% 47% 44% 49% 53% 58% 56% 51% 53% 47% 49% 56% 56%
USDJPY 60% 35% 44% 49% 47% 49% 47% 44% 53% 49% 51% 53% 49% 47% 47% 42% 44% 44% 47% 47%
AUDUSD 47% 51% 56% 56% 51% 49% 49% 49% 56% 51% 49% 49% 53% 58% 60% 58% 56% 58% 57% 55%
USDCAD 56% 49% 53% 51% 53% 58% 51% 44% 53% 51% 51% 56% 53% 53% 60% 51% 51% 49% 51% 51%
EURJPY 46% 57% 61% 57% 61% 61% 50% 46% 50% 54% 57% 57% 50% 46% 43% 43% 39% 50% 46% 46%
USDNOK 53% 44% 49% 49% 44% 49% 56% 58% 51% 47% 47% 49% 44% 56% 49% 53% 51% 51% 44% 44%

Average Changes over Following 5 Trading Days
5 Day Holding Period Average % Change
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EURUSD 0.01 0.33 0.28 0.26 0.18 0.13 0.01 0.16 0.06 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.25 0.18 0.06 0.08
GBPUSD 0.39 0.27 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.20 0.14 0.16 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.14 0.06 0.07 0.17 0.09 0.12 0.04
USDJPY 0.10 0.07 0.00 0.16 0.20 0.16 0.03 0.20 0.17 0.09 0.13 0.29 0.03 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.16 0.04 0.03 0.09
AUDUSD 0.05 0.23 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.40 0.14 0.04 0.20 0.25 0.54 0.17 0.06 0.01 0.11 0.07
USDCAD 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.10 0.07 0.06 0.11 0.05 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.16 0.11 0.05
EURJPY 0.07 0.26 0.34 0.02 0.20 0.17 0.21 0.07 0.01 0.16 0.16 0.24 0.03 0.10 0.09 0.14 0.34 0.23 0.08 0.20
USDNOK 0.20 0.53 0.40 0.31 0.17 0.09 0.09 0.28 0.03 0.14 0.18 0.24 0.42 0.14 0.04 0.20 0.20 0.14 0.01 0.01

% Positive 5 Day Holding Period Avg % Change
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EURUSD 56% 41% 46% 44% 59% 44% 51% 51% 51% 46% 46% 49% 49% 56% 49% 59% 62% 56% 54% 51%
GBPUSD 42% 37% 53% 56% 58% 56% 58% 49% 60% 58% 47% 49% 47% 51% 51% 58% 63% 60% 58% 49%
USDJPY 47% 51% 47% 51% 51% 53% 53% 47% 42% 44% 51% 49% 51% 49% 47% 47% 56% 56% 49% 56%
AUDUSD 42% 40% 42% 56% 53% 49% 51% 53% 56% 63% 56% 49% 44% 42% 30% 47% 49% 53% 48% 57%
USDCAD 51% 51% 47% 58% 47% 44% 51% 49% 53% 60% 44% 40% 53% 47% 40% 47% 49% 42% 47% 47%
EURJPY 57% 46% 36% 54% 68% 64% 61% 54% 57% 50% 57% 64% 50% 54% 50% 50% 57% 57% 54% 61%
USDNOK 42% 63% 53% 53% 42% 49% 51% 44% 49% 53% 51% 58% 53% 53% 56% 37% 33% 47% 47% 47%
05/30/2014
Copyright 2014 Arbor Research & Trading, Inc. All rights reserved. This material is for your private information, and we are not soliciting any action based
upon it. This material should not be redistributed or replicated in any form without the prior consent of Arbor. The material is based upon information that
we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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