Republic of the Philippines

Department of Energy
Energy Center, Merritt Rd., Fort Bonifacio, Taguig





2013 Supply-Demand Outlook

Based on the 2012 Power Development Plan Luzon and Visayas grid will have enough capacity until
2015. The commissioning of the 600 MW GN Power coal-fired plant in Mariveles, Bataan targeted in
May 2013 will provide additional base-load power in Luzon grid. In Visayas, the 610 MW coal-fired
power plant commissioned in 2011 provides a significant increase of the supply in the region. Of the
three grids, Mindanao is critical since its supply is just enough to meet the demand and lacks the
reserve power it needs to provide stability in the grid. Thus any breakdown/shutdown of large power
plant unit will cause brownout in some areas of Mindanao.

Private Sector Initiated Power Projects

In Luzon, a number of power projects were lined up to augment the existing capacity of the grid. A total
of 869 MW committed projects are expected for commissioning this year until 2015. Of these, 113 MW
will be from renewable energy. Large power projects, on the other hand, include the 600 MW GN Power
coal-fired power plant mentioned earlier and the 135 MW Puting Bato Phase 1 coal-fired power plant in
2015.

Meanwhile, a total of 310 MW committed power projects with 40 MW from renewable energy and 270
MW from fossil based power plants will be online in Visayas starting 2013. Among these are the 135
MW Coal-fired power plant by Palm Concepcion which will commission the Phase 1 of the project in
2015 and the second phase with 135 MW in 2017 that will increase the base-load capacity of the
region.

For Mindanao, a total of 588 MW committed power projects are expected to enhance the said regions
capacity however; the large capacity will be online in the 2nd quarter of 2014. The committed power
projects of Therma South (300 MW in 2nd quarter of 2014) and Sarangani Energy Corporation (200
MW in 2015) are very significant to the grid as these will provide the much needed base-load power.

In addition, the DOE along with energy stakeholders have also created contingency plans:

In support of the governments aim of holding a successful election, the DOE issued a circular
creating the Power Task Force Election on 2013. This will be headed by the DOS Secretary
and the attached agencies, PEMC and MERALCO as members.

On Malampaya Shutdown:
o DOE is in close coordination with SPEX, concerned agencies and stakeholders on the
measures during the Malampaya Shutdown.

In Mindanao grid:
o Implementation of the Interim Mindanao Electricity Market (IMEM) as indicated in the
latest DOE Circular issuance, DC2013-01-0001.
o Coordination with COA and LGU on the operation of Iligan Diesel power plant
o Issued department circular DC2012-03-0004 on 19 March 2012 entitled Directing
Compliance with the EPIRA Act of 2001 to Address the Power Supply Situation
Including the Rationalization of the Available Capacities in the Mindanao Grid










Supply Demand Outlook, 2012 2030


Luzon Grid

Electricity demand in Luzon grid is projected to increase at an average annual growth rate (AAGR)
of 4.13 percent, from 7,969 MW in 2012 to 10,693 MW in 2020 and will increase further to 16,477
MW in 2030.

On top of the committed power projects, the grid still needs 8,100 MW of additional capacities
composed of 6,000 MW base-load plant and 2,100 MW peaking plants to meet the electricity
demand and the required reserve margin of the grid.


Figure: Luzon Grid Supply-Demand Outlook, 2012-2030

























Visayas Grid


Visayas electricity demand is projected to increase by 4.52 percent AAGR. At a projected demand
of 1,568 MW in 2012 this will increase to 2,237 MW in 2020 and 3,431 MW at the end of the
planning period.

With the current dependable capacity of 2,037 MW, the system will still need additional of 1,700
MW which is composed of 1,300 MW base-load and 400 MW peaking power plants to meet the
future electricity demand.



Figure: Visayas Grid Supply-Demand Outlook, 2012-2030






























Mindanao Grid


Of the three grids, Mindanao has the largest growth rate projection in the 2012 PDP update. At 4.57
percent AAGR, projected peak demand in 2012 is at 1,407 MW is seen to increase to 2,068 MW in
2020 and will increase further to 3,250 MW in 2030.

Mindanao grid is experiencing under generation since 2010. The large power plant built in the
region is the 210 MW Mindanao Coal-fired which was commissioned in 2006. The existing capacity
in the region is composed of more than 50 percent hydroelectric power plant which is dependent on
the availability of water and affected by weather conditions. A total of 1,600 MW additional
capacities are needed in the planning period to meet the electricity demand and the required
reserve margin of the grid.


Figure: Mindanao Grid Supply-Demand Outlook, 2012-2030