Mlgrauon

A perspecuve from complexlLy sclence

lrans Wlllekens
nlul
Wlllekens[nldl.nl
Workshop on mlgrauon modelllng, ChllworLh Manor, 16 lebruary 2012
ConLenL
ComplexlLy sclence
Mlgrauon
1he declslon process
lllusLrauon
Model declslon process
Model mlgrauon dynamlcs
uoes model of agenLs reproduce observed
mlgrauon age proles and spaual sLrucLure?
ComplexlLy sclence
SysLem behavlour ls ouLcome of acuons of agenLs
(lndlvlduals and lnsuLuuons), and lnLeracuons
beLween agenLs (acLors lnsLead of varlables)
Pow pauerns emerge: physlcal, soclal, culLural (norms)
AgenL ls Lhe unlL ln a model of populauon
lndlvlduals, lnsuLuuons
AgenL as agency (capaclLy Lo acqulre lnformauon
learn, make cholces and Lo acL accordlngly)
AgenL embedded ln sLrucLure (facLors LhaL lnuence
agenLs
AgenLs and sysLem co-evolve: lnLeracuon beLween
agency and sLrucLure
Mlgrauon
Mlgrauon ls lnsLrumenLal behavlour: llfe sLraLegy
Mlgrauon Lrlggered by hlsLorlcal evenLs, llfe evenLs, llvlng
condluons (!"##$%#&$'%() +,-(.+/#"#), and expecLauons (0$12/
/3-/'.$)',4 2%1"., 5$3"5"6$%())
uomalns of llfe: educauon, work, healLh, parLnershlp,
famlly
8elocauon ls process embedded ln llfe course.
Mlgrauon may Lrlgger new mlgrauon.
Ceography of opporLunlues (locauon and dlsLance)
generaLes moblllLy
7''/## ls Lhe key and neLwork faclllLaLes
ush, pull and lnLervenlng opporLunlues
Mlgrauon declslon maklng (uM)
llshbeln and A[zen (1980): value-expecLancy Lheory:
behavlour depends on (1) beneL of acuon (value)
and (2) sub[ecuve probablllLy of beneL (expecLancy).
uM process: amLude, lnLenuon, behavlour
! uM ls sLaglng process. Lach sLage may delay ouLcome
(acuon)
Model of lndlvldual uM process, valldauon aL
aggregaLe (populauon) level
Age prole and spaual sLrucLure of mlgrauon
lllusLrauon
4 counLrles
10,000 lndlvlduals, aged 13
4,000 males, moderaLely skllled
1,000 males, hlghly skllled (fuLure)
4,000 females, moderaLely skllled
1,000 females, hlghly skllled (fuLure)
CovernmenL: mlgrauon pollcy (e.g. resldence permlL, green/blue
card, Lax beneLs, educauonal programs)
1argeLed aL mlgranLs wlLh moderaLe / hlgh skllls
Mlgrauon declslon maklng: value-expecLancy Lheory
AmLude -> lnLenuon -> behavlour
CuLpuL: lndlvldual mlgrauon hlsLorles beLween ages 13
and 60
lllusLrauon
Lver develop an amLude Lowards emlgrauon
ModeraLe skllls: 30 percenL
Plgh skllls: 80 percenL
Age aL onseL of amLude: normal dlsLrlbuuon
ModeraLe skllls: =18, o=4
Plgh skllls: =18, o=2
8aLe of developlng emlgrauon lnLenuon: 0.2
Arrlval raLe of opporLunlues
ModeraLe skllls: 0.3
Plgh skllls: 0.7
ersons wlLh lnLenuon Lo mlgraLe are noL selecuve.
1hey move aL Lhe rsL opporLunlLy.
lndlvldual
parameLers
4
8n
uoes model of agenLs reproduce observed
mlgrauon age proles and spaual sLrucLure?
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Age
S
u
r
v
i
v
a
l

p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

(
s
t
a
y
)
Moderate-skilled
High-skilled
llgure 1 kaplan-Meler esumaLor
10 20 30 40 50
0
50
100
150
200
Age
E
m
i
g
r
a
n
t
s
Skill level
Low
High
Skill level
Low
High
llgure 2 number of emlgranLs by age and sklll level (LoLal 10,000)
ModeraLely skllled: alpha = 0.2129, lambda= 0.2148 and mu = 23.48
Plghly skllled: alpha = 0.2104, lambda = 0.2967 and mu = 20.33
uesunauon probablllues
Auracuveness lndex
!
p
2
=
exp a
2
( )
exp(a
k
)
k"1
#
Mulunomlal loglL
ulscreLe cholce model
Skill
Destination M H
A 0 0
B 2 0
C 0 0
D 0 2
Sklll: M
Sklll: P
uesunauon probablllues
Slmulauon
use Lransluon raLes Lo generaLe mlgrauon hlsLorles
Mlgrauon process ls conunuous-ume Markov process
wlLh lnsLanLaneous raLes LhaL vary wlLh age (and
orlgln, desunauon and sklll level)
lecewlse consLanL: slngle years of age
Age aL emlgrauon: 3 random varlables
Age aL onseL amLude (normal dlsLrlbuuon) and 2 lags
(exponenual walung ume dlsLrlbuuons)
Calendar daLe aL Lransluon = uaLe of blrLh + age
uesunauon cholce: 1 random varlable
Mulunomlal dlsLrlbuuon (dlscreLe)
8orn ln A on 16
Lh
lebruary 1997.
Mlgrauon: Au: 8
Lh
SepLember 2019, uC: 8
Lh
november 2023
8esulLs saved ln 8lograph ob[ecL
8esulLs aL populauon level
1able 2 Mlgrauon ows by sklll level and LoLal, derlved from Lhe lndlvldual
mlgrauon hlsLorles, ln presence of mlgrauon pollcles
A. Total
Destination
Origin A B C D Total Censored
A 0 220 32 164 416 621
B 14 0 19 38 71 202
C 1 12 0 12 25 62
D 22 41 36 0 99 115
Total 37 273 87 214 611 1000
B. Individuals with moderate skills
Destination
Origin A B C D Total Censored
A 0 201 17 25 243 553
B 9 0 17 12 38 174
C 0 6 0 0 6 28
D 0 5 0 0 5 32
Total 9 212 34 37 292 787
C. Individuals with high skills
Destination
Origin A B C D Total Censored
A 0 19 15 139 173 68
B 5 0 2 26 33 28
C 1 6 0 12 19 34
D 22 36 36 0 94 83
Total 28 61 53 177 319 213
1able 3 MosL frequenL mlgrauon hlsLorles, LoLal and by sklll level, ln presence of
mlgrauon pollcles.
A. Total population
ncase % cum% M_age_entry M_age_exit ns case tr1 tr2
2 595 59.5 59.5 15 60 1 A
2 171 17.1 76.6 15 60 2 AB 24.91>B
3 77 7.7 84.3 15 60 2 AD 25.76>D
4 24 2.4 86.7 15 60 2 AC 24.01>C
5 17 1.7 88.4 15 60 3 ABD 24.25>B 32.17>D
B. Individuals with moderate skills
ncase % cum% M_age_entry M_age_exit ns case tr1 tr2
1 544 69.12 69.12 15 60 1 A
2 167 21.22 90.34 15 60 2 AB 24.91>B
3 21 2.67 93.01 15 60 2 AD 23.39>D
4 14 1.78 94.79 15 60 3 ABC 22.54>B 29.58>C
5 13 1.65 96.44 15 60 2 AC 23.2>C
C. Individuals with high skills
ncase % cum% M_age_entry M_age_exit ns case tr1 tr2
1 56 26.29 26.29 15 60 2 AD 25.96>D
2 51 23.94 50.23 15 60 1 A
3 17 7.98 58.22 15 60 3 ADC 23.83>D 30.54>C
4 13 6.10 64.32 15 60 3 ADB 21.42>D 31.42>B
5 11 5.16 69.48 15 60 2 AC 28.6>C
Absence of mlgrauon pollcy
1able 4 Mlgrauon ows ln Lhe absence of mlgrauon pollcles
A. Total population
Destination
Origin A C B D Total Censored
A 0 148 133 133 414 638
C 16 0 19 18 53 126
B 17 19 0 14 50 115
D 19 12 13 0 44 121
Total 52 179 165 165 561 1000
B. Individuals with moderate skills
Destination
Origin A B C D Total Censored
A 0 81 86 82 249 576
B 2 0 5 7 14 77
C 6 5 0 3 14 78
D 7 5 1 0 13 79
Total 15 91 92 92 290 810
C. Individuals with high skills
Destination
Origin A B C D Total Censored
A 0 52 62 51 165 62
B 15 0 14 7 36 38
C 10 14 0 15 39 48
D 12 8 11 0 31 42
Total 37 74 87 73 271 190
1able 3 MosL frequenL mlgrauon Lra[ecLorles ln absence of mlgrauon pollcles
A. Total population
ncase % cum% M_age_entry M_age_exit ns case tr1 tr2
1 599 59.9 59.9 15 60 1 A
2 101 10.1 70.0 15 60 2 AC 25.98>C
3 93 9.3 79.3 15 60 2 AD 26.23>D
4 92 9.2 88.5 15 60 2 AB 25.14>B
5 12 1.2 89.7 15 60 3 ADA 24.36>D 28.38>A
B. Individuals with moderate skills
ncase % cum% M_age_entry M_age_exit ns case tr1 tr2
1 564 69.63 69.63 15 60 1 A
2 72 8.89 78.52 15 60 2 AC 25.86>C
3 68 8.40 86.91 15 60 2 AB 25.14>B
4 68 8.40 95.31 15 60 2 AD 25.71>D
5 5 0.62 95.93 15 60 3 ABD 25.4>B 25.88>D
C. Individuals with high skills
ncase % cum% M_age_entry M_age_exit ns case tr1 tr2
1 35 18.42 18.42 15 60 1 A
2 29 15.26 33.68 15 60 2 AC 25.98>C
3 25 13.16 46.84 15 60 2 AD 27.3>D
4 24 12.63 59.47 15 60 2 AB 25.95>B
5 9 4.74 64.21 15 60 3 ABA 25.33>B 28.69>A
lnlual populauon equally dlsLrlbuLed
beLween Lhe 4 counLrles
Concluslon
A complexlLy sclence perspecuve on mlgrauon
8ehavloural process drlves mlgrauon raLes
SLarL from behavloural Lheory Lo model process
1heory of reasoned acuon / planned behavlour
Mlcroslmulauon: lndlvldual mlgrauon hlsLorles
1ranslaLe behavloural process lnLo Lransluon raLes
1ransluon raLes drlve populauon dynamlcs
LxLenslons
CLher lnsuLuuons: recrulLmenL agencles, norms
(resulL of soclal lnLeracuon), eLc.
leedback mechanlsms, e.g. assorLauve mechanlsms,
remluances, dlaspora, pollcy responses Lo mlgrauon
Llnked llves: famllles, households
1hank you