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: (.

)
: (.)

Re-examining the Political Landscape of Thailand

:
..

Assistant Professor Dr.Apichat Satitniramai


Faculty of Economics
Thammasat University
..

Assistant Professor Dr.Yukti Mukdawijitra


Faculty of Sociology and Anthropology
Thammasat University

:

:
(.)
(.)
2556
This project was supported by
Thai Health Promotion Foundation (Thai Health)
May 2013

..

Associate Professor Dr.Niti Pawakapan


Faculty of Political Science
Chulalongkorn University

: (.)
99/8 . . 4
10120
: 0 2343 1500 : 0 2343 1551
www.thaihealth.or.th

: 2556
: 1,000
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: (.)
(PPSI)
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.-- :
(.)
, 2556.

128 . -- ().

1. --. I. II. .
305.09593




( .)



()


(.)
.

. , . , () .
, . , , .
, . , . , .
, . , . , . ,
, . ,













()

5,000-10,000
40%
2552

-



(new needs and aspiration)

20




.. 2540



(effectiveness)


(
)


()

(
)




Walker (2012: 6-9)




(risk-minimization and safety-first principle)


..


(
)


()


, , ,
, , , , ,
2553 2556 5


(background factor)

6
, ,

,
,

12

32

13

33
?

16

44

16

19

52

54

59

68

1 2550
2
3
4
5

18
34
35
49
91

88

128

138

89

129

139

96

132

110

134

140

136

142

1 2529-2552
2
3 Gini
4
5
6
7
8

39
40
42
88
89
89
90
92

12

13

1.1







5 1) 2) 3)
4) 5)

14

1)

(.)



2)



(framingframe master)

3)



4)



(focus group) (interview)

(questionnaire)











(freedom of speech)

15


112
.112
.112
.112




16

1.2

2

20

1.


20

17


(non-farm income)








(no longer a peasant society)



GDP 10%

38%






(poverty incidence)

(UNDP, 2010)




2.


(structural change)







hard disk drives


18

(secondary boom)

2540





(professional)



(formal sector)
(informal
sector)


2530



2530

(productivity)

2540

73% 2550

1 2550
(%)
(Agriculture)
(Non-agriculture)

(Formal)
3
24

(Non-formal)
34.3
38.7

: UNDP (2010: 11)

19


2520

1990-2000 ( .. 2535-2553)





( .)
( )

(extra-bureaucratic polity)

2510 2535
(Anek 1993) 2530


(public sphere)





2540



2520

(social movement)
(new social movement)


( 2541; 2548)
1990



(Glassman et al. 2009; Kengkij and
Hewison 2009)
2510 (Bowie 2005)

20




20

2530

( 2537;
2546 [2538]; 2539, 2543; Ueda 2000)
2530 2000

(. .)
(Nelson 1998; Arghiros 2002)

(Arghiros 2001; Nelson 2002)


2540




(Nelson 2005;
Nishizaki 2005; Bowie 2008a, 2008b; Walker
2008; 2551)


2520 2530



1990

4
1)
2520 2) 3)
4)
1.
2520
2520
(Anek 1993)
(2546)

( 2546: 8)












21

2520






2534
2549 (Callahan 2005: 107-8; 2551:
149-150)



William Callahan (2005)


Callahan






(Callahan 2005: 105-6)


22


(
)






( 2553)


20



2540


( 2553)

2540

(Ockey 2003;
Walker 2008; Bowie 2008b)





/ /




James
Ockey (2003) Ockey
2540 (1997)

Ockey


(Ockey 2003: 672)
2540


IMF



2540 Ockey

2540

23





2540

Ockey


2540

Ockey


Ockey
Ockey
Ockey

2540


Ockey

2540
.. Ockey

Ockey
Ockey



2.


3 (1)
(2)
(.)

24

(3)
(.)





2549



. . (
)

1970

.
Daniel Arghiros
2515 2518

2539
(.)
. 1
2 2544


.
.

. (Arghiros
2002: 228-230)
Arghiros .
.

.
Arghiros .


.

(Arghiros 2002: 231-5) .
Arghiros .
. . .
. 2540
.
. 2546
( Arghiros )

.
.

Arghiros


2510

2530

25



2530

Arghiros




. .

2530



..
..
.. (Arghiros 2002: 239)

Arghiros
.



. .
.



.
..
.

(Bowie 2008a)
.

3.

2530 2540

26



(
)
( 2549)
(Hewison and Maniemai 2000)
(Ueda 2000) (
2543) (Nishizaki 2005)









( 2537)




(2549)


Ueda (2000)






Hewison
and Maniemai



1970-1980




(bureaucratic polity)
(money politics) (Hewison and
Maniemai 2000: 198-9)



(2543)



Nishizaki (2005) Nishizaki




Nishizaki



27

(
)


Hewison and
Maniemai (2000)
Hewison and Maniemai




Hewison and Maniemai
(
)

(
)








(2537)


28






20







4.


(Arghiros 2001; Nelson
2005)

(Bowie 2008a, 2008b)
(Arghiros 2002)
(Walker
2008)

Michael Nelson (1998,


2005) Daniel Arghiros (2001)

Katherine Bowie

(2008a) (2008b)
Andrew Walker (2008)
(
(2534))
(1)
(Nelson 1998; Arghiros
2001) (2) (Bowie
2008b) (3)
(Bowie 2008a) (4)
(Walker 2008)








Nelson
(1998)




Nelson (2005)



29


Nelson

Nelson (2005)
.




Arghiros (2001)
2533 2538

2533

(

)
2533



Nelson

Bowie (2008b)

Bowie
5


Bowie

(Bowie 2008a: 498-9) Bowie

1990
Bowie



30

Bowie (2008a)

(

)

Andrew Walker
(2008)
Walker


Walker

3




3






(commercial exchange (vote-buying) approach)

(historical and socio-cultural approach)




(
)

2530

6

31

30%
..

70%

..

2553

46.68%

6.76%

2544


, ,

32

33

2.1
?






(commercial
agriculturalists)
(self-employed)

(small scale trader/entrepreneur)



cluster analysis
(2556)
6
1
(R1)
(
.. 2550

)
(


) /
(
)

1 2,200 5

1) 2) 3) 4)
5) 400 600
17 15 .. 2555

34



(R2)
,
/


(Y1)


(Y2)

/

(N)

/



() ()

LR1

LR2

LY

LR1 LR2
LY
L
LR1, LR2
LY



(issue based)
(None)

2 (

R2

R1

R2

R1

= /
Y2

= )

LR2 Y2

: : .. 2555

LR1

Y1

LY

Y1 None

35

3 2

16

1
2
3
11

4
12
13
15
5
6
8

7
14

9
10

()

None =

5.42
5.42
R1 =

1.67

4.97
18.85

10.58

1.63
R2 =

24.23

0.41
27.90

2.58

0.68
LR1 =

7.50
7.50
LR2 =

9.27
9.27
LY =

2.62
2.62
Y2 = /

19.12
24.01

4.88
Y1 = (PAD)

3.21
4.43

1.22

100

: : .. 2555

36


2 (2556)
(socioeconomic
status)
Multinomial
Logit 3

Y1 (N)
R1

N Y2
R1
R2
R1

R1
Y1
(formal sector)

(informal)
R1 Y2

R1 R2 ( R1)
(
)


( None)
R1


R1

(
) ()
()


Y1

(Y1)

4




None



Ammar and Somchai (2012: 66-67)
2552
(
), ( ),
( (self-employed))




()
5

(emerging-lowermiddle-class)6
(established-middle-class)7
(2555: 2-3)



37







(focus group)
( 2555)

(2556) -
/-
-
-

- .
- .. 2550
112
3
R1 ()
1 2 (2556: 6)
4 -

5There is a clear tendency for better-off people to be Yellow. Thus Bangkok people (across all income classes) are more likely to be Yellow,
while outside Bangkok the better off are more likely to be Yellow.
6
7 (2556: 8 15)
(formal sector)

38

(2555:3)
(
)



(economic determinism)


(socioeconomic factor)
(determining
factor) (influential factor)


( None)
(apolitics)



8.8%
7.3
2552
6 (
2554: 47-48)


42.2% 2531 7.7%
5 2553

49.7% 10.4%

39

23.7% 2.6% (Pasuk and Pornthep 2012: 13-14)




1

1 2529-2552
()
50
40
30
20
10
0
2529

2531

2533

2535

2537

2539

2540

2541

2542

2543

2547

2549

2550

2552

1 1
3 , , --
2529 2549
2549 2552 2

40

2
()
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0

2544

2548

2552

: : 2544


5,000 25529

32%
2552 ( 55% 2529)
3,214



35%
2552
5,000-10,000

10% 2529 20%
2552

5,828


(6,239 ) 2552
( 2554: 37-38)


20

(2547: 11)


=
=

41

15-34
25322541
3.5



Nipon
(2006: Part II, 40-41) 2547
10 1.36
19%
0.94 2529
2,525 9,311

70%
11
()






9

1,586 2552

10


11

Keyes (2010)
. .
Keyes
2548






(Keyes 2010: 15-16)





Keyes






(livelihood diversification)

60%

19% 5% 25%
40% 2552

42






( 3)

3 Gini
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
1960

1965

Thailand

1970

1975

Malaysia

1980

1985

Philippines

1990

1995

2000

2005

Indonesia

Source : UNDP (2010) cited from Prof.Hal Hill. ANU.

20% 50.05% 2539


46.68% 2553 6.10% 6.76%
(Pasuk and Pornthep 2012: 15-16)
20% 69 (Pasuk and Baker 2012: 219)
10%
1.85% 2549
1,468 2.2% 2553 2,133
10% 35.11% 36.96%
18.97 16.66
(Pasuk and Pornthep 2012: 16-17)


0.5-0.6 2536-2552

(0.65-0.7)
3.6%

1.4% 2545-2551
5%

(Pasuk and Pornthep 2012: 19, 21)


(62-64% 2548-2553)
(
30 ) 254412


25%
2553 12.7%


24
(Pasuk and Pornthep 2012: 18)



20

12

43


40% 2552


()


(capabilities)
/


(informal sector)

30 75.2%

44

2.2

19 2549
(point of departure)
13





2550
2550


193






(key word)

( )
-
19









- 2553

45




(disenfranchisement)






14

15




2549

16

12 19 2553





17
18

13

(2556)

14

(political landscape)

15
16

17

2549, ,

46

18
(2555)
19
-

1.




20


-

(royal nationalism)
Kasian (2006: 18-20)



5

7 9

2513 Jackson (2009)



(auraticise) 9
(visual media)

(popular) 2516







(Thongchai 2008)

47

2.

( 2555)








21
(
)


(2556:
34-35, 83-86)

Y2



Y1

R1 ()
Y2
()
R1 ()
Y2 Y1
R1 (
)

R1

Y1 Y2
R1

18




19

-
20

26 .. 2556 .

21


NPLs 2540
(abuse of power) AIS



70:30

48


Y2
Y1

R1

R1



R2
R2

R1
() R2


R1

R2



R1
R2




R1

.


R2

R2

R1
R2


(2555)

(
( 2555)




22

22 (Bureaucratic Polity)

49


4 (2556:
33)
4

()

()
()

(4 )

43.63
14.04
0.62
0.49
0.32
0.47
19,283.85
12,679.48
9.67
3.93

0.07
0.26
0.05
0.22
0.02
0.14
0.27
0.45
0.21
0.41
0.15
0.36
0.08
0.27
0.04
0.19
0.02
0.14

41.63
12.29
0.59
0.49
1
0
25,368.77
13,780.77
11.77
4.2

0.09
0.28
0.19
0.39
0.03
0.18
0.37
0.48
0
0.04
0.14
0.35
0.04
0.2
0.04
0.2
0.02
0.13

: : .. 2555


( )

50

3.






[]

30




30






()

4.



()

()

51


-
()
(2556)



1

30%

15,000 20,000 ( 2)
2552
(established middle class)





2503


.. 2500

..
--
23




70% 30%


70:30




2530





23
(reaction)


-
(status quo)

(political landscape) 3

52

2.3




2544








/
OTOP






/
10 (2556)
()


Y1











(winner take all--
)


(
)



(2556: 34-35)
Y2

R1
R2
Y2
R1


R1






R2
Y2

R1


(2555: 11)





30
OTOP


53




2551



( 2555: 6)

19 2549





54

2.4




2549

(2556: 15)

( None)


(51.5%)

27.85%



R1

( 23)

( 2556:
34-35)
(None) (N)
Y2


( None)

R1


(
2555: 1-4)

(2555)

55

2549

- (
) ()

()

.
()


()
(
)


6
10
(
)

()

56


() ( )

() ()

/










(Keyes 1967: 37-39)





(Keyes 1967: 22-35)



?
Jack M. Barbalet (emotions)

(Macrostructural Theory)

(power)

resentment
vengeance, vengefulness
Resentment

(Hornby
2005:1290) (

()
() (2544: 627)



)

(vengeance
vengefulness) Barbalet


(moral emotion)
(Turner and Stets 2005: 252-253)


(norms
and cultural expectations)




(distribution of resources)






(social classes)
(segments)




(Turner and Stets
2005: 253)

(vengeance,
vengefulness24)


(basic rights)
24

57


(social
philosophy)
Barbalet

(social relationships)



(perceptions) (third parties)


(/

/
)
(cultural codes)

(2544: 832)
vengeance, vengefulness

58


(Turner and Stets 2005: 255-256)
Barbalet








(differentiation)
(fragmentation)
(
)













(Turner and Stets
2005: 256) (
)





(sociology of
emotions) Barbalet


()




2549

59

2.5



Callahan (2005)





2535
2553




. ()



60






200, 300 500





1.



2.

--

14
2516 14 2516


20
2529

..








2535

2510-2530


...

3.














(Bureaucratic
Polity) (technocrat)

4.
()
80

5
25
3.2



61

62

2530










(1) 2540-50

(
)
(2)






(.)

(3)

2540




()
(
)

. .

(1)

(2)


(1)

(2)


(3)



(2555)


( 17)

63




90%
( 19
20)
(
14) (2555)
()






.. ..
70:30

, ,








64






(1)
(2)

(3)
(4)

1.









()
2.




(2555) .
.

(2555)





(2555) ( 20 21)








(2555)

3.




(2555)


.
(2555)


65

4.


(2555)


3 2554




primary vote









3-4

66


2530













1.

2.





3.








25
4.








26


67

5.



27









25

Bowie (2008a, 2008b)

26

27

. (2555)

68

2.6


2-3






(patronage) (reciprocity)

(hierarchy)



(dyadic agreement)

(cultural sense)

(Weingrod, 1997: 324)28



(
)


2

28Weingrod

69




1950 1970

Schmidt (eds.) (1977), Clapham (ed.) (1982)


(Cold War)

(democracy)
(Modernization)



(money politics)


( Arghiros 2001 Mcvey 2000)

70


(model)


Lucien M. Hanks

1950
(social hierarchies)

/






(entourages)






(There are no publics, no masses, nor
even a proletariat)

(
) (charisma)
(strong-arm tactics)


(the apoliticals) (Walker 2012: 10-12)




(apolitical)

2520 2530




(vote buying)




(electoral corruption)


(civil morality)

71

(Walker 2012: 11-13)









(
Modernization)
( !?)


(
)


(Jeremy H. Kemp, 1982)


(entourage)
Van Roy Hanks
(clique)
(clique friendship)
(patron-client bond)

72




(Kemp 1982: 151-158)
Kemp






2-3



(idiom
Walker) (discourse)









(
)



()









2

1.



(..)
..

73

..

..
..
..
..




..


..

..


..



( )

..


..






..

..
..



..
..
..

74

2.




2553
.



.


(2556)

(
)

75









Andrew Walker

(rural constitution)
(localism) (support)
(administration) (Walker 2008,
and 2012, Chapter 7)





1.







( 2555)

76


( )
(

)


(
)
(
)

(2555)
















( 2555: 3:
)
2.

77


(
2555)


..
(
)

.


..


(
)

.

(
2555: 44-46)




3.





(2555)
29





(


)

29


( )

( 2555: 153-154)

78





.. 2553
(.)







()








(2555)




( 2555: 46)


(fundamental)


(corporate groups)
(Kemp 1982: 152)

30

79









(



)






(

)

30 corporate groups

4 ,
, ,


Clark W. Sorensen, Asian families: Domestic group formation, in Asias Cultural
Mosaic: An Anthropological Introduction, edited by Grant Evans (Singapore: Prentice Hall, 1993), pp. 93-94

80


(2555)







(
)
















(meager)



81

( 2555:
,

)




(
) (

. .
)

1.

(2555)




(.)


82


19
2549

92.5
MHZ








51


(
2555: 2)


















(
2555: 4 :
)
2.

83

29 2553

10 19





91

23 2553



400

93.0 MHz
15 ..


,
... , ,


( 2555: 5,
)

84

6-7
(
)

( )


(2555)




(
)





()

85

2540
..

86

87


2
(economic scape) (ideological scape)



3.1

20 (mobility)



(livelihood diversification)
= =

88


2552 7.92%
31 ( 4)32
2543-2550
( 5) 60.5%
(72.5%) (61.9%) 49.5% ()
45.1% () 253733

4
:
250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
2543

2544

2545

2547

2549

2550

2552

2554

31

11
.. 2552
32
33

1-3

(2554).
(), 2-010/2553, .2553-010, 55-56.

89

5
:
80
70
60
50
40
30

2537

2539

2541

2543

2545

2547

2549

2550

2552

6
6
:
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2543

2544

2545

2549

2550

2552

90


( 7)

7
:
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0

2543

2544

2545

2547

2549

2550

2552

2554

2537-2545
51-68
2547-2552 60.8-66%
34
(farm income)
2547
5 35

91

5 (percent of total household income)


Income by region
Central
Farm/total income
Wage/ total income
North
Farm/total income
Wage/ total income
Northeast
Farm/total income
Wage/ total income
South
Farm/total income
Wage/ total income

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004
0.65
0.25

0.70
0.20

0.66
0.20

0.66
0.24

0.62
0.29

0.53
0.28

0.67
0.24

0.70
0.20

0.61
0.29

0.59
0.30

0.68
0.23

0.58
0.32

0.62
0.28

0.61
0.25

0.64
0.25

0.53
0.32

0.49
0.36

0.54
0.46

0.50
0.32

0.47
0.29

0.48
0.33

0.47
0.33

0.54
0.29

0.49
0.35

0.66
0.23

0.53
0.25

0.55
0.26

0.52
0.26

0.37
0.34

0.65
0.26

0.44
0.32

0.37
0.38

0.36
0.34

0.42
0.31

0.38
0.31

0.38
0.34

0.60
0.29

0.69
0.22

0.67
0.25

0.66
0.25

0.64
0.27

0.39
0.33

0.66
0.25

0.56
0.33

0.58
0.31

0.54
0.34

0.59
0.31

0.62
0.26

Note: Total cash income is not included in in-kind income. Part of wage income is the payment to hire agricultural worker, but cannot be separated in the survey data.
Source: Calculated from NSO, Socio-economic survey, various years.


(Gross Regional Product) ( 8)


(mobility)
- (facilitate)




34

(2554: 55)

35

5 8 Table 7 26 Figure 9 24 Nipon Poapongsakorn, (2006). The decline and


recovery of Thai agriculture: causes, responses, prospects and challenges In FAO. Rapid Growth of Selected Asian Economies: Lessons and
implications for agriculture and food security Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Viet Nam.

92

8
:

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

: NESDB, National income

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

93

(market economy)




(subsistence ethic) J.C.
Scott (1976)

Scott
(subsistence economy)





(risk-minimization and
safety-first principle)



(reciprocity)


8%






94



(rank)



/
36













/







(sense of belonging)






37

95



(new
needs and aspirations)





(absolute poverty)

(relative poverty)
(2555: )



(
2555)

38
(mode of
state-society relation)


2533
39



(service
provider)

36

37

(2556: 3-5)

38
39

(price support programs)

96

3.2







.. 2540




(effective government)





2549

2520
.. 2521
.. 2540

(ineffective)


(fragmented)

(mass
political party)




()


( )









(..)

40

97




(
)


(..)

(
) ()


(aggregation of interests)



40




(local public goods)


..


..

98

(candidate center)
(party center)



..



.. 2540
(multiple-seats
constituency)
.. (candidate
center)

()
..


..

(
)


2544 41

42


(Siripan 2006: 60-61; Hicken 2006)

(Hicken 2001: 2006)


)



( ) (a first among
equals)


..





..
.. 2532

.. 253543

99

1.



2.

(MacIntrye 2003) (veto
player)







(veto
player)

(statue-quo biased)
3.
..

(systematic macro-policy)

)
(discretion) (centralization)
)
.. 2489

41

.. 2518 .. 2539 10 ..
50 (Siripan 2006: Table 2.6, 63)
42

6 (MacIntrye 2003: 43)

43

.. 2550 ..

100

..


..

( 2546 2: 257-266)
.. 2521


.. 20
..

..

..
( 2539:
93-93, 160)
) )

(candidate center) /
(party center)
4.

(fragmented)44

..

..

45

..


..




46



47





..



48

101

5.









44








49

.. 2540





(fragmented)

Siripan (2006: 155-164)

45

23 .. 2550 6
.. 315 .. 480 35
9 1
46

47





48


49

Lauridsen (2008a: 832)

102

.. 2540

2530

.. 2540

.. 2540


(one-man one-vote)
..

(party-list)


5 ..

(size biased)50

..
..

.. ..




7.2
2529-2539 3.8 2544 2.6
254851

() ()

1.
.. 90

60
..




103

90

..


(credible threat)

2.
..
..


217

3.
..
40
..


..


(1)
(grand coalition government)


(minimum coalition
government)
( )
()
() (Ockey 2003)



.. 2540


2544


30




2540

50

.. 42
2544
51

Hicken (2006: 393) effective number of political party

104

.. 2548




2540

2544







2544



..


..



2529 2534


.. 2540

(.)

.



..
2546 .
(.) 7,775
(.) 75


.

(2553)

63.5 2545 71.8


.. 2548
/ .
.
2550
2548-2553
80 2548
87.2
89.7 2553
-

(2556:
34-35)
.

Y2 (N)

R1
R2 Y1
R1

105

Y1 (N)

R1
R2 Y2 R1
.
()
Y2
(N) R2
R1
Y1
R1 52

Y2


R2
Y2








. .

.

.

52


.
53




.



40% .

.
.

( 2554: 29-35)




.. 2544
.. 2540

2530


2540

53
. 2542 .

24%

106







()









(aspirations)


(capabilities)
/

(new needs)

(



2540
(new needs
and aspirations)



2544














( 2553)

107

()




54





55

( )


56
2549

54


2534



2544

2549







.. 2554

55

( (2556))
--


56

.. 2553

108


2546










2500

.. 2544






.. 2540



..
2544




2546


.. 2546
.

2546

..
--


70%

109

30%



(distributive politics)

110

3.3





( )

2547


()


(anxiety
to deterritorialization)


2520
(post-Cold War)
2518


(Harvey 1990)
(post-modernism)

111






(Fordism)


(Appadurai 1996)
10













( 2549)





112

FTA










(geo-body)






( 2551)

/

2520
( 2548 Thongchai 2008)





(official nationalism)
(homogenization)

(Gellner
1983, Scott 1998)

fundamentalism





( 2537)




2540


. .

2540

113

2530
2550

57









(status quo)


57
(NGOs)

2520

2530
( 2548)
19 2549
2550 2549

114




(social mobility)

()

(1)
(2)
(3) (4)

1.










...





(mobility)

( )
( - )

2.



10 2552





(2555)
(2555)
58

115

11258



112

116

.. 2540




2
2549
19
2549
2551
2551

2550



no justice, no peace

3.

4.

(2534: 275)
Yoshifumi Tamada








( 276)

..








.. 2540






117





.. 2540



2540



2540
2550 19
2549

2540
2550




2540

2540

118

2540

2540

(2555)


...




( 2534)

5.

119




19 2549



.
2550
. .





.

2551
.
.

120

. .


. .






2549





112 112 (. 112)













2549
(.) 2550

.
. 2551



121

6.


(politics of identity)




(block vote)







6.1







3
2554



..


..


122












..
..










()
.. ()



(political party activist)

3 .. 2554

(mass movement)
6.2








( 2555)

123


(2555)

(safety valve)

(.. 2549)









SML

5




19
2549 2550

124

6.3



(2555)






( 2 :
)

( 6
)
( 5
:

)

(
3 :
)

( 4 :
)



2500
2510
2540







20











20







Charles Keyes
(cosmopolitan villagers)
(Keyes 2010)





(new
politico-cultural citizenship)

125

-





(cultural citizenship)


59
Mary Beth Mills



(Mills 2012: 88)


59 Renato Rosaldo

(the right to be different and to belong, in a democratic, participatory sense) ( Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, Demographics
of South America, in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_America ( 6 2555))

126


30-40





Andrew Walker

(middle-income peasants)




(new needs and aspiration)






Walker

(political peasants) (Walker 2012)



(new media)









.
.
...

.
.



(charac-teristics)

127

128

129

4.1

5,000-10,000



(characteristics) ()

5,000-10,000
40% 2552
-

(needs and aspirations)
20

130




.. 2540

(macro-level policy)
(effectiveness)






(conducive)

(livelihood)







2535
.. 2540



.. 2544




(distributive
politics)

131





2549







70:30


132

4.2



(
) (determining factor)








(conducive)


(probability)










( )

133


( 2550-2553)

2547 (
)

134

4.3

..





Walker (2012: 6-9)





(risk-minimization
and safety-first principle)


..



(livelihood diversification)





(2555)




(2555)

135





(block vote)



(electoral politics)




136

4.4



2523-2533
2543

(dominance perspective)




(Bureaucratic
Polity) 2523




(Money Politics)


(passive)

--


(Scott 1976)


60




Walker (2012)














()
()
( 4 )

137





()


60

138

139

5.1

47%

28.5%

19%


( N)

10 (2556) ( N) 19%
47% 28.5%
3 4 N
1 5

140

5.2

1.22%
91.69%

1.67%

-

( 10)61
1.22%
( 1)62 1.67%

(extremist)

3%
() 91.69%

61

62

.. 2550

141

1.

(
)




2.

142

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