Neg Politics Ups

CIR
1NC Uniqueness
CIR will pass now TOA now but Obamas pol cap is key and its finite
McMorris-Santoro 10/15 (Evan, Obama Has Already Won the Shutdown Fight and Hes Coming
For Immigration Next, 10/15/2013, http://www.buzzfeed.com/evanmcsan/obama-has-already-won-
the-shutdown-fight-and-hes-coming-for, AC)
WASHINGTON As the fiscal fight roiling Washington nears its end, the White House is already signaling that it plans to use the
political momentum it has gained during the shutdown fight to charge back into the immigration
debate. And this time, Democratic pollsters and advocates say, they could actually win. The final chapter of the current crisis hasnt been written
yet, but Democrats in Washington are privately confident that theyll emerge with the upper hand over the conservatives in Congress who forced a government
shutdown. And sources say the administration plans to use its victory to resurrect an issue that was always
intended to be a top priority of Obamas second-term agenda. Advocates argue the post-fiscal crisis political reality could thaw debate on the
issue in the House, which froze in earlier this year after the Senate passed a bipartisan immigration bill that was led by Republican Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic
Sen. Chuck Schumer. Its at least possible with sinking poll numbers for the Republicans, with a [GOP] brand that is badly damaged as the party that
cant govern responsibly and is reckless that theyre going to say, All right, what can we do that will be in our political interest and also do tough things? said Frank
Sharry, executive director of the immigration reform group Americas Voice. Thats where immigration could fill the bill. The White House and
Democrats are ready to jump back into the immigration fray when the fiscal crises ends, Sharry said. And advocates are
already drawing up their plans to put immigration back on the agenda plans theyll likely initiate the morning after a fiscal
deal is struck. Were talking about it. We want to be next up and were going to position ourselves that way, Sharry said. There are different people doing
different things, and our movement will be increasingly confrontational with Republicans , including civil disobedience. A
lot of people are going to say, Were not going to wait. The White House isnt ready to talk about the world after the debt limit fight yet, but officials have
signaled strongly they want to put immigration back on the agenda. Asked about future strategic plans after the shutdown Monday, a
senior White House official said, Thats a conversation for when the government opens and we havent defaulted. But on Tuesday, Press Secretary Jay Carney
specifically mentioned immigration when asked how the White House proceeds after the current fracas is history. Just like we wish for the country, for deficit
reduction, for our economy, that the House would follow the Senates lead and pass comprehensive immigration
reform with a big bipartisan vote, he said. That might be good for the Republican Party. Analysts say so; Republicans say so. We
hope they do it. The president set immigration as his next priority in an interview with Univision Tuesday. Once thats done, you
know, the day after, Im going to be pushing to say, call a vote on immigration reform, Obama said. He also set up another fight with the
House GOP on the issue . We had a very strong Democratic and Republican vote in the Senate, Obama said. The only thing right now thats
holding it back is, again, Speaker Boehner not willing to call the bill on the floor of the House of Representatives. Dont expect the White House effort to include
barnstorming across the country on behalf of immigration reform in the days after the fiscal crisis ends, reform proponents predict. Advocates said the White House
has tried hard to help immigration reform along, and in the current climate that means trying to thread the needle with
Republicans who support reform but have also reflexively opposed every one of Obamas major
policy proposals. Democrats and advocates seem to hope the GOP comes back to immigration on its own, albeit with a boost from Democrats eager to
join them. Polls show Republicans have taken on more of the blame from the fiscal battle of the past couple of weeks. But Tom Jensen, a pollster with the
Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, said moving to pass immigration reform could be just what the doctor ordered to get the public
back on the side of the Republicans. Weve consistently found that a sizable chunk of Republican voters support immigration reform, and
obviously a decent number of Republican politicians do too, Jensen said. After this huge partisan impasse, they may want to focus on something thats not quite
as polarized, and immigration would certainly fit the bill since we see voters across party lines calling for reform. In a political environment
where the best-laid plans often amount to nothing, though, the White House may not be able to
leverage momentum or even hang onto it for very long .
2NC UQ
CIR is at the top of the agenda after the fiscal fiasco
Reuters 10/16 (Reuters, Obama Plans Immigration Push After Fiscal Crisis Ends, 10/16/2013,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/16/us-usa-obama-immigration-idUSBRE99F01Q20131016, AC)
President Barack Obama said on Tuesday that stalled immigration reform would be a top priority once the
fiscal crisis has been resolved. "Once that's done, you know, the day after, I'm going to be pushing to say, call a vote on
immigration reform," he told the Los Angeles affiliate of Spanish-language television network Univision. The president's
domestic agenda has been sidetracked in his second term by one problem after another. As he coped with the
revelation of domestic surveillance programs, chemical weapons in Syria, and a fiscal battle that has shut
down the U.S. government and threatens a debt default, immigration has been relegated to the back burner. But Obama, who won re-
election with overwhelming Hispanic backing, had hoped to make reforms easing the plight of the 11 million immigrants who are in
the United States illegally. In June, the Senate passed an immigration overhaul, but House of Representatives
Republicans are divided over the granting of legal status to those in the country illegally, a step many see as rewarding lawbreakers.
AT: Boehner/XO
Momentum for reform now pol cap key to win Boehner over and no XO
Fabian 10/15 (Jordan, Obama: Immigration Next After Shutdown, Debt Limit Fights, 10/15/2013,
http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/obama-immigration-shutdown-debt-limit-
fights/story?id=20582502, AC)
President Obama said Tuesday that he will push Congress to take up immigration reform immediately after
the fiscal crises facing the nation have been resolved. Momentum behind an immigration overhaul has been
stymied by the government shutdown and the impending deadline to raise the nations debt limit. But
the president said Congress must reconsider immigration reform, arguing it would boost the economy and offer legal status
to millions of undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. Once thats done, you know, the day after Im going to be pushing to say, call a vote
on immigration reform, Obama told Univisions Los Angeles affiliate, KMEX, in an interview Tuesday. Im going to do so because I think its
really important for the country. The president is attempting to reassure advocates for immigration reform
that the fight is not over, despite the fact the effort faces extremely long odds in Congress In June, the Senate passed a
comprehensive immigration reform bill that contained ramped-up border security measures and a pathway to citizenship to many of the 11.7
million undocumented immigrants. But the Republicans who control House of Representatives quickly declared the bill dead on arrival and any
broad immigration overhaul has faced long odds of passage ever since. The acrimony between Republicans and the White House has only
heightened throughout the course of the government shutdown and debt-limit fights. With partisan tension as thick as ever and time running
out before the calendar turns to 2014, an election year, some immigrant activists fear that hopes for an immigration bill this year might be
dashed. Considering the stalemate in Congress, immigration-reform advocates have placed pressure on Obama to
take executive action to relax his policies on deportations. Since Obama took office, his administration has deported 400,000
undocumented immigrants per year on average. The president indicated he would continue to work through
Congress to enact changes to immigration law. We had a very strong Democratic and Republican vote in the Senate, he
said. The only thing right now thats holding it back is again, Speaker Boehner not willing to call the bill on the floor of the
House of Representatives. So were going to have to get through this crisis that was unnecessary ... if I have to
join with other advocates and continue to speak out on that, and keep pushing, Im going to do so.
2NC Pol Cap Key
Now is key Obama has leverage now to set the agenda and overcome opposition
Lewis and Roberts 10/15 (Paul and Dan, Senate leaders strike deal to raise debt ceiling and end
government shutdown, 10/15/2013, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/16/senate-leaders-
strike-debt-ceiling-deal-shutdown, AC)
The White House also hinted that Obama may use the defeat of conservatives in Congress as a way to push
ahead with other administration priorities such as immigration reform, that were previously blocked
from coming to the floor of the House of Representatives. "The president believes that one of the consequences of these
manufactured crises is that time is taken away from the pursuit of other goals that we have as a nation," added
Carney. "That includes ... the project of bringing about legislation that he can sign that comprehensively reforms our
immigration system."

Aff Politics Ups
CIR
Pol Cap Not Key
Pol cap not key and Obama didnt gain momentum the leverage that he does have
isnt enough to pass CIR
Tobin 10/17 (Jonathan S., Can the Obama Revival Succeed? 10/17/2013,
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2013/10/17/can-the-obama-revival-succeed-shutdown/, AC)
But now that the GOP is picking itself off the floor after their humiliating surrender yesterday, the question remains as
to whether the president has regained enough momentum to score some other victories over them in
the coming months. It is difficult to gauge exactly how much political capital the president has gotten out of
his tough guy approach to the shutdown. But even if we concede that he is certainly a lot stronger than he was two
months ago, he is not likely to enjoy another such moment of triumph again.