Professional Documents
Culture Documents
USA CPI
Date
CPI
2008-12-01
2009-01-01
2009-02-01
2009-03-01
2009-04-01
2009-05-01
2009-06-01
2009-07-01
2009-08-01
2009-09-01
2009-10-01
2009-11-01
2009-12-01
2010-01-01
2010-02-01
2010-03-01
2010-04-01
2010-05-01
2010-06-01
2010-07-01
2010-08-01
2010-09-01
2010-10-01
2010-11-01
2010-12-01
2011-01-01
2011-02-01
2011-03-01
2011-04-01
2011-05-01
2011-06-01
2011-07-01
2011-08-01
2011-09-01
2011-10-01
2011-11-01
2011-12-01
2012-01-01
2012-02-01
2012-03-01
2012-04-01
2012-05-01
2012-06-01
2012-07-01
2012-08-01
2012-09-01
2012-10-01
2012-11-01
2012-12-01
2013-01-01
2013-02-01
2013-03-01
2013-04-01
2013-05-01
2013-06-01
2013-07-01
2013-08-01
2013-09-01
2013-10-01
2013-11-01
2013-12-01
99.98
100.23
100.60
100.50
100.60
100.75
101.58
101.55
101.89
102.09
102.39
102.74
102.79
102.85
102.75
102.77
102.80
102.77
102.76
102.95
103.11
103.23
103.58
103.83
104.25
104.56
104.90
105.44
105.96
106.37
106.41
106.67
106.95
107.20
107.24
107.42
107.40
107.67
107.89
108.18
108.39
108.25
108.22
108.20
108.75
109.29
109.56
109.34
109.30
109.40
110.00
109.76
109.58
109.78
110.13
110.31
110.40
110.55
110.56
110.68
110.95
REGRERSSION OUTPUT
South Korea
CPI
0.231%
0.364%
-0.099%
0.101%
0.147%
0.830%
-0.030%
0.335%
0.193%
0.300%
0.335%
0.052%
0.055%
-0.099%
0.025%
0.033%
-0.035%
-0.006%
0.180%
0.154%
0.123%
0.340%
0.237%
0.407%
0.293%
0.332%
0.513%
0.494%
0.385%
0.032%
0.250%
0.264%
0.232%
0.038%
0.165%
-0.019%
0.252%
0.207%
0.260%
0.198%
-0.131%
-0.026%
-0.020%
0.513%
0.493%
0.245%
-0.199%
-0.039%
0.096%
0.552%
-0.225%
-0.159%
0.180%
0.317%
0.168%
0.078%
0.133%
0.017%
0.107%
0.240%
104.14
104.23
104.99
105.74
106.02
106.02
105.93
106.30
106.68
106.77
106.49
106.68
107.06
107.90
108.12
108.34
108.77
108.88
108.77
108.99
109.54
110.41
110.41
109.87
110.30
111.61
112.38
112.81
112.92
113.14
113.36
113.91
114.67
114.56
114.34
114.45
114.89
115.35
115.79
115.82
115.81
116.01
115.85
115.59
116.12
116.95
116.74
116.32
116.53
117.23
117.62
117.51
117.35
117.35
117.21
117.46
117.87
118.10
117.74
117.72
117.86
0.090%
0.722%
0.717%
0.266%
0.000%
-0.089%
0.356%
0.353%
0.089%
-0.265%
0.176%
0.353%
0.790%
0.202%
0.202%
0.403%
0.100%
-0.100%
0.201%
0.501%
0.798%
0.000%
-0.495%
0.398%
1.188%
0.685%
0.389%
0.097%
0.193%
0.193%
0.482%
0.671%
-0.095%
-0.191%
0.096%
0.382%
0.399%
0.379%
0.028%
-0.009%
0.179%
-0.141%
-0.226%
0.463%
0.715%
-0.187%
-0.356%
0.178%
0.600%
0.335%
-0.093%
-0.139%
0.000%
-0.121%
0.214%
0.353%
0.195%
-0.305%
-0.019%
0.121%
Inflation
% change
USD/KRW
USD/KRW
Difference
Rate
in
Actual(A)
Normative(B)
(A-B)
differential
Exchange
0.0007
0.140%
0.0007
0.0000
0.0007
0.00000
-0.355%
0.0007
0.0000
0.0007
0.00000
-0.810%
0.0007
0.0000
0.0007
0.00001
-0.165%
0.0007
0.0000
0.0007
0.00000
0.147%
0.0008
14.2857
0.0007
0.00010
0.919%
0.0008
0.0000
0.0008
-0.00001
-0.384%
0.0008
0.0000
0.0008
0.00000
-0.018%
0.0008
0.0000
0.0008
0.00000
0.104%
0.0008
0.0000
0.0008
0.00000
0.567%
0.0008
0.0000
0.0008
0.00000
0.158%
0.0009
12.5000
0.0008
0.00010
-0.300%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.729%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00001
-0.301%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.177%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.369%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.136%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.094%
0.0008
-11.1111
0.0009
-0.00010
-0.020%
0.0008
0.0000
0.0008
0.00000
-0.345%
0.0008
0.0000
0.0008
0.00000
-0.669%
0.0009
12.5000
0.0008
0.00011
0.340%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.736%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
-0.00001
0.009%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.885%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00001
-0.351%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.124%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.397%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.191%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.161%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.230%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.404%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.328%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.229%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.070%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.399%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.146%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.171%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.232%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.207%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.310%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.116%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.207%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.050%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.220%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.432%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.157%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.217%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.501%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.216%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.133%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.019%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.180%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.439%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.046%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.275%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
-0.062%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.323%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.126%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
0.119%
0.0009
0.0000
0.0009
0.00000
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.065119248
R Square
0.004240516
Adjusted R
Square
-0.01292775
Standard Error
3.280428626
Observations
60
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
1
58
59
Coefficients
Intercept
Inflation rate
differential
0.449972532
60.28236503
SS
2.657990867
624.1502942
626.808285
Standard
Error
0.425334595
121.2953448
MS
2.657990867
10.76121197
F
0.246997353
Significance
F
0.621076008
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
1.057926014
0.496988282
0.294475514
0.621076008
0.401427163
303.0813774
Upper 95%
1.301372228
182.5166473
CPI
Inflation
Rate
differential
0.231%
0.364%
-0.099%
0.101%
0.147%
0.830%
-0.030%
0.335%
0.193%
0.300%
0.335%
0.052%
0.055%
-0.099%
0.025%
0.033%
-0.035%
-0.006%
0.180%
0.154%
0.123%
0.340%
0.237%
0.407%
0.293%
0.332%
0.513%
0.494%
0.385%
0.032%
0.250%
0.264%
0.232%
0.038%
0.165%
-0.019%
0.252%
0.207%
0.260%
0.198%
-0.131%
-0.026%
-0.020%
0.513%
0.493%
0.245%
-0.199%
-0.039%
0.096%
0.552%
-0.225%
-0.159%
0.180%
0.317%
0.168%
0.078%
0.133%
0.017%
0.107%
0.240%
101.00
100.59
100.97
101.16
101.32
101.47
101.60
101.15
101.67
101.42
101.51
101.65
101.92
101.69
102.26
102.75
103.02
103.14
103.13
102.84
103.08
103.00
103.14
103.25
103.72
103.47
103.96
104.81
105.17
105.23
105.31
104.84
105.39
105.31
105.56
105.85
106.28
105.90
106.34
107.22
107.37
107.31
107.35
106.87
107.59
107.32
107.52
107.35
107.70
107.15
107.45
108.27
108.11
108.16
108.34
108.02
108.52
108.27
108.12
108.08
108.45
-0.412%
0.380%
0.185%
0.160%
0.151%
0.126%
-0.443%
0.512%
-0.242%
0.092%
0.134%
0.267%
-0.225%
0.560%
0.482%
0.265%
0.107%
-0.008%
-0.280%
0.231%
-0.074%
0.132%
0.115%
0.453%
-0.238%
0.468%
0.817%
0.340%
0.057%
0.081%
-0.444%
0.519%
-0.073%
0.234%
0.274%
0.409%
-0.352%
0.409%
0.831%
0.135%
-0.055%
0.040%
-0.443%
0.668%
-0.253%
0.190%
-0.158%
0.325%
-0.513%
0.285%
0.759%
-0.149%
0.055%
0.165%
-0.298%
0.464%
-0.235%
-0.133%
-0.039%
0.338%
0.646%
-0.016%
-0.283%
-0.059%
-0.004%
0.703%
0.415%
-0.177%
0.437%
0.208%
0.201%
-0.215%
0.280%
-0.655%
-0.455%
-0.231%
-0.142%
0.002%
0.462%
-0.077%
0.198%
0.208%
0.122%
-0.046%
0.531%
-0.135%
-0.301%
0.153%
0.328%
-0.049%
0.697%
-0.253%
0.305%
-0.195%
-0.108%
-0.427%
0.606%
-0.201%
-0.566%
0.063%
-0.076%
-0.065%
0.425%
-0.154%
0.748%
0.055%
-0.041%
-0.363%
0.612%
0.266%
-0.977%
-0.009%
0.125%
0.152%
0.468%
-0.385%
0.369%
0.150%
0.147%
-0.098%
USA CPI
Date
CPI
2008-12-01
2009-01-01
2009-02-01
2009-03-01
2009-04-01
2009-05-01
2009-06-01
2009-07-01
2009-08-01
2009-09-01
2009-10-01
2009-11-01
2009-12-01
2010-01-01
2010-02-01
2010-03-01
2010-04-01
2010-05-01
2010-06-01
2010-07-01
2010-08-01
2010-09-01
2010-10-01
2010-11-01
2010-12-01
2011-01-01
2011-02-01
2011-03-01
2011-04-01
2011-05-01
2011-06-01
2011-07-01
2011-08-01
2011-09-01
2011-10-01
2011-11-01
2011-12-01
2012-01-01
2012-02-01
2012-03-01
2012-04-01
2012-05-01
2012-06-01
2012-07-01
2012-08-01
2012-09-01
2012-10-01
2012-11-01
2012-12-01
2013-01-01
2013-02-01
2013-03-01
2013-04-01
2013-05-01
2013-06-01
2013-07-01
2013-08-01
2013-09-01
2013-10-01
2013-11-01
2013-12-01
99.98
100.23
100.60
100.50
100.60
100.75
101.58
101.55
101.89
102.09
102.39
102.74
102.79
102.85
102.75
102.77
102.80
102.77
102.76
102.95
103.11
103.23
103.58
103.83
104.25
104.56
104.90
105.44
105.96
106.37
106.41
106.67
106.95
107.20
107.24
107.42
107.40
107.67
107.89
108.18
108.39
108.25
108.22
108.20
108.75
109.29
109.56
109.34
109.30
109.40
110.00
109.76
109.58
109.78
110.13
110.31
110.40
110.55
110.56
110.68
110.95
France
USD/EUR
Actual(A)
1.3467
1.3355
1.2813
1.3034
1.3205
1.3632
1.4012
1.407
1.4254
1.4548
1.4807
1.4895
1.4603
1.4281
1.368
1.3578
1.3442
1.262
1.2213
1.2756
1.2912
1.303
1.3893
1.3695
1.3213
1.3353
1.3645
1.4001
1.4435
1.434
1.4382
1.4306
1.4342
1.3804
1.37
1.3587
1.3184
1.2893
1.322
1.3212
1.3169
1.284
1.2534
1.2309
1.2384
1.2854
1.2968
1.2827
1.3105
1.3279
1.3382
1.2975
1.3013
1.2983
1.3175
1.3073
1.3318
1.3343
1.3634
1.3494
1.3694
% change in
USD/EUR
Difference
Exchange
Normative(B)
(A-B)
rate
-0.8317
-4.0584
1.7248
1.3120
3.2336
2.7876
0.4139
1.3077
2.0626
1.7803
0.5943
-1.9604
-2.2050
-4.2084
-0.7456
-1.0016
-6.1152
-3.2250
4.4461
1.2230
0.9139
6.6232
-1.4252
-3.5195
1.0596
2.1868
2.6090
3.0998
-0.6581
0.2929
-0.5284
0.2516
-3.7512
-0.7534
-0.8248
-2.9661
-2.2072
2.5363
-0.0605
-0.3255
-2.4983
-2.3832
-1.7951
0.6093
3.7952
0.8869
-1.0873
2.1673
1.3277
0.7757
-3.0414
0.2929
-0.2305
1.4789
-0.7742
1.8741
0.1877
2.1809
-1.0268
1.4821
1.3554
1.3353
1.2777
1.3026
1.3205
1.3728
1.4070
1.4045
1.4316
1.4578
1.4837
1.4863
1.4644
1.4187
1.3618
1.3547
1.3423
1.2620
1.2269
1.2746
1.2938
1.3057
1.3910
1.3689
1.3283
1.3335
1.3604
1.4022
1.4482
1.4333
1.4482
1.4270
1.4386
1.3777
1.3685
1.3529
1.3264
1.2867
1.3145
1.3220
1.3159
1.2832
1.2587
1.2290
1.2477
1.2861
1.2963
1.2780
1.3185
1.3314
1.3251
1.2974
1.3029
1.3003
1.3237
1.3023
1.3367
1.3363
1.3654
1.3481
-0.0199
-0.0540
0.0257
0.0179
0.0427
0.0284
0.0000
0.0209
0.0232
0.0229
0.0058
-0.0260
-0.0363
-0.0507
-0.0040
-0.0105
-0.0803
-0.0407
0.0487
0.0166
0.0092
0.0836
-0.0215
-0.0476
0.0070
0.0310
0.0397
0.0413
-0.0142
0.0049
-0.0176
0.0072
-0.0582
-0.0077
-0.0098
-0.0345
-0.0371
0.0353
0.0067
-0.0051
-0.0319
-0.0298
-0.0278
0.0094
0.0377
0.0107
-0.0136
0.0325
0.0094
0.0068
-0.0276
0.0039
-0.0046
0.0172
-0.0164
0.0295
-0.0024
0.0271
-0.0160
0.0213
REGRESSION OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.24681804
R Square
0.060919145
Adjusted R
Square
0.044728096
Standard Error
2.301351258
Observations
60
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
Inflation rate
differential
1
58
59
SS
19.92712415
307.1806214
327.1077456
MS
19.92712415
5.296217611
F
3.762519899
Significance
F
0.05728177
P-value
Lower 95%
Coefficients
0.035095649
Standard
Error
t Stat
0.300724459
0.116703674
0.907498049
163.2293322
84.15090697
1.939721604
0.05728177
0.637061056
5.217009578
Upper 95%
0.566869758
331.675674
CPI
CPI
Inflation
Rate
differentia
2008-12-01
2009-01-01
2009-02-01
2009-03-01
2009-04-01
2009-05-01
2009-06-01
2009-07-01
2009-08-01
2009-09-01
2009-10-01
2009-11-01
2009-12-01
2010-01-01
2010-02-01
2010-03-01
2010-04-01
2010-05-01
2010-06-01
2010-07-01
2010-08-01
2010-09-01
2010-10-01
2010-11-01
2010-12-01
2011-01-01
2011-02-01
2011-03-01
2011-04-01
2011-05-01
2011-06-01
2011-07-01
2011-08-01
2011-09-01
2011-10-01
2011-11-01
2011-12-01
2012-01-01
2012-02-01
2012-03-01
2012-04-01
2012-05-01
2012-06-01
2012-07-01
2012-08-01
2012-09-01
2012-10-01
2012-11-01
2012-12-01
2013-01-01
2013-02-01
2013-03-01
2013-04-01
2013-05-01
2013-06-01
2013-07-01
2013-08-01
2013-09-01
2013-10-01
2013-11-01
2013-12-01
99.98
100.23
100.60
100.50
100.60
100.75
101.58
101.55
101.89
102.09
102.39
102.74
102.79
102.85
102.75
102.77
102.80
102.77
102.76
102.95
103.11
103.23
103.58
103.83
104.25
104.56
104.90
105.44
105.96
106.37
106.41
106.67
106.95
107.20
107.24
107.42
107.40
107.67
107.89
108.18
108.39
108.25
108.22
108.20
108.75
109.29
109.56
109.34
109.30
109.40
110.00
109.76
109.58
109.78
110.13
110.31
110.40
110.55
110.56
110.68
110.95
0.231%
0.364%
-0.099%
0.101%
0.147%
0.830%
-0.030%
0.335%
0.193%
0.300%
0.335%
0.052%
0.055%
-0.099%
0.025%
0.033%
-0.035%
-0.006%
0.180%
0.154%
0.123%
0.340%
0.237%
0.407%
0.293%
0.332%
0.513%
0.494%
0.385%
0.032%
0.250%
0.264%
0.232%
0.038%
0.165%
-0.019%
0.252%
0.207%
0.260%
0.198%
-0.131%
-0.026%
-0.020%
0.513%
0.493%
0.245%
-0.199%
-0.039%
0.096%
0.552%
-0.225%
-0.159%
0.180%
0.317%
0.168%
0.078%
0.133%
0.017%
0.107%
0.240%
100.90
100.53
100.55
100.84
100.99
100.73
100.98
100.51
100.72
101.03
101.28
101.26
101.48
100.84
101.45
101.69
101.70
101.89
101.91
101.60
101.60
102.46
102.79
103.13
103.85
103.32
103.95
104.65
105.10
105.30
105.05
105.00
105.03
105.77
105.77
106.02
106.23
105.24
105.94
106.24
106.47
106.38
106.12
105.71
105.81
106.24
106.17
105.91
106.17
105.29
105.76
106.19
105.98
106.15
105.96
105.81
105.91
106.32
106.10
106.03
106.32
-0.371%
0.023%
0.285%
0.154%
-0.257%
0.241%
-0.461%
0.208%
0.308%
0.251%
-0.023%
0.220%
-0.632%
0.602%
0.240%
0.013%
0.186%
0.017%
-0.308%
0.007%
0.844%
0.319%
0.332%
0.704%
-0.517%
0.611%
0.679%
0.429%
0.186%
-0.237%
-0.048%
0.032%
0.700%
0.003%
0.236%
0.197%
-0.931%
0.664%
0.280%
0.219%
-0.082%
-0.247%
-0.388%
0.102%
0.402%
-0.070%
-0.245%
0.252%
-0.830%
0.446%
0.402%
-0.197%
0.162%
-0.175%
-0.140%
0.092%
0.386%
-0.206%
-0.064%
0.267%
0.604%
0.341%
-0.383%
-0.053%
0.405%
0.587%
0.433%
0.126%
-0.115%
0.050%
0.358%
-0.168%
0.691%
-0.697%
-0.214%
0.019%
-0.221%
-0.023%
0.490%
0.147%
-0.714%
0.021%
-0.094%
-0.295%
0.813%
-0.277%
-0.164%
0.065%
0.198%
0.270%
0.299%
0.232%
-0.465%
0.035%
-0.071%
-0.216%
1.194%
-0.453%
-0.020%
-0.022%
-0.049%
0.222%
0.369%
0.410%
0.091%
0.315%
0.045%
-0.290%
0.933%
0.106%
-0.625%
0.039%
0.018%
0.493%
0.309%
-0.015%
-0.252%
0.223%
0.171%
-0.028%
USA CPI
Sweden
USD/SEK
Actual(A)
0.1246
0.1241
0.1178
0.1164
0.1214
0.1287
0.1288
0.1295
0.1397
0.1427
0.1437
0.1442
0.1401
0.1398
0.1373
0.1397
0.1389
0.1304
0.1275
0.1342
0.1369
0.1411
0.1498
0.1468
0.1457
0.1495
0.1551
0.1574
0.161
0.1599
0.1581
0.1567
0.1562
0.1513
0.1501
0.1487
0.1461
0.1456
0.1499
0.1486
0.1486
0.1427
0.141
0.1436
0.1497
0.1515
0.1505
0.149
0.1513
0.1539
0.157
0.1552
0.1541
0.1514
0.1518
0.1509
0.153
0.1536
0.1559
0.152
0.1527
% change in
USD/SEK
Exchange
Normative(B)
rate
-0.4013
-5.0766
-1.1885
4.2955
6.0132
0.0777
0.5435
7.8764
2.1475
0.7008
0.3479
-2.8433
-0.2141
-1.7883
1.7480
-0.5727
-6.1195
-2.2239
5.2549
2.0119
3.0679
6.1658
-2.0027
-0.7493
2.6081
3.7458
1.4829
2.2872
-0.6832
-1.1257
-0.8855
-0.3191
-3.1370
-0.7931
-0.9327
-1.7485
-0.3422
2.9533
-0.8672
0.0000
-3.9704
-1.1913
1.8440
4.2479
1.2024
-0.6601
-0.9967
1.5436
1.7184
2.0143
-1.1465
-0.7088
-1.7521
0.2642
-0.5929
1.3917
0.3922
1.4974
-2.5016
0.4605
0.1254
0.1245
0.1173
0.1163
0.1219
0.1295
0.1294
0.1297
0.1395
0.1428
0.1442
0.1440
0.1411
0.1388
0.1370
0.1397
0.1386
0.1304
0.1281
0.1344
0.1359
0.1411
0.1497
0.1464
0.1469
0.1491
0.1548
0.1575
0.1613
0.1603
0.1586
0.1571
0.1555
0.1514
0.1500
0.1484
0.1478
0.1449
0.1499
0.1486
0.1485
0.1430
0.1415
0.1442
0.1498
0.1520
0.1506
0.1486
0.1527
0.1541
0.1560
0.1553
0.1541
0.1521
0.1523
0.1509
0.1526
0.1539
0.1562
0.1520
Difference
(A-B)
-0.0013
-0.0067
-0.0009
0.0051
0.0068
-0.0007
0.0001
0.0100
0.0032
0.0009
0.0000
-0.0039
-0.0013
-0.0015
0.0027
-0.0008
-0.0082
-0.0029
0.0061
0.0025
0.0052
0.0087
-0.0029
-0.0007
0.0026
0.0060
0.0026
0.0035
-0.0014
-0.0022
-0.0019
-0.0009
-0.0042
-0.0013
-0.0013
-0.0023
-0.0022
0.0050
-0.0013
0.0000
-0.0058
-0.0020
0.0021
0.0055
0.0017
-0.0015
-0.0016
0.0027
0.0012
0.0029
-0.0008
-0.0012
-0.0027
-0.0003
-0.0014
0.0021
0.0010
0.0020
-0.0042
0.0007
REGRESSION OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
0.13990923
Multiple R
3
0.01957459
R Square
3
Adjusted R
0.00267070
Square
7
2.61270499
Standard Error
2
Observations
60
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
SS
1
7.904728145
58
59
395.9211879
403.825916
Coefficients
Standard
Error
MS
7.90472814
5
6.82622737
7
F
1.15799
4
Significance
F
0.28633794
3
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Intercept
0.28781729
6
0.346428607
0.83081272
6
0.40948
7
Inflation rate
differential
98.0357487
3
91.10272676
1.07610114
7
0.28633
8
0.40563490
4
84.3261722
9
Upper 95%
0.98126949
6
280.397669
7
reject the null hypothesis that the coefficient of inflation rate differential is 0. Looking at these values
we can say that they are statistically insignificant and the model is not fitting the data.
USA CPI
South Africa
Date
CPI
CPI
Inflation
Rate
differential
2008-12-01
2009-01-01
2009-02-01
2009-03-01
2009-04-01
2009-05-01
2009-06-01
2009-07-01
2009-08-01
2009-09-01
2009-10-01
2009-11-01
2009-12-01
2010-01-01
2010-02-01
2010-03-01
2010-04-01
2010-05-01
2010-06-01
2010-07-01
2010-08-01
2010-09-01
2010-10-01
2010-11-01
2010-12-01
2011-01-01
2011-02-01
2011-03-01
2011-04-01
2011-05-01
2011-06-01
2011-07-01
2011-08-01
2011-09-01
2011-10-01
2011-11-01
2011-12-01
2012-01-01
2012-02-01
2012-03-01
2012-04-01
2012-05-01
2012-06-01
2012-07-01
2012-08-01
2012-09-01
2012-10-01
2012-11-01
2012-12-01
2013-01-01
2013-02-01
2013-03-01
2013-04-01
2013-05-01
2013-06-01
2013-07-01
2013-08-01
2013-09-01
2013-10-01
2013-11-01
2013-12-01
99.98
100.23
100.60
100.50
100.60
100.75
101.58
101.55
101.89
102.09
102.39
102.74
102.79
102.85
102.75
102.77
102.80
102.77
102.76
102.95
103.11
103.23
103.58
103.83
104.25
104.56
104.90
105.44
105.96
106.37
106.41
106.67
106.95
107.20
107.24
107.42
107.40
107.67
107.89
108.18
108.39
108.25
108.22
108.20
108.75
109.29
109.56
109.34
109.30
109.40
110.00
109.76
109.58
109.78
110.13
110.31
110.40
110.55
110.56
110.68
110.95
0.231%
0.364%
-0.099%
0.101%
0.147%
0.830%
-0.030%
0.335%
0.193%
0.300%
0.335%
0.052%
0.055%
-0.099%
0.025%
0.033%
-0.035%
-0.006%
0.180%
0.154%
0.123%
0.340%
0.237%
0.407%
0.293%
0.332%
0.513%
0.494%
0.385%
0.032%
0.250%
0.264%
0.232%
0.038%
0.165%
-0.019%
0.252%
0.207%
0.260%
0.198%
-0.131%
-0.026%
-0.020%
0.513%
0.493%
0.245%
-0.199%
-0.039%
0.096%
0.552%
-0.225%
-0.159%
0.180%
0.317%
0.168%
0.078%
0.133%
0.017%
0.107%
0.240%
109.35
109.89
110.97
112.58
113.12
113.53
113.80
115.01
115.28
115.68
115.68
115.68
115.95
116.36
117.03
117.98
118.11
118.38
118.38
119.06
119.19
119.32
119.59
119.73
119.86
120.54
121.21
122.70
123.10
123.77
124.45
125.39
125.53
126.07
127.01
127.14
127.55
128.22
128.90
130.25
130.79
130.92
131.32
131.59
132.00
133.08
134.02
134.43
134.83
135.23
136.45
138.07
138.47
138.07
138.61
139.95
140.49
141.17
141.44
141.57
141.98
0.493%
0.982%
1.458%
0.479%
0.358%
0.238%
1.066%
0.234%
0.351%
0.000%
0.000%
0.233%
0.349%
0.579%
0.806%
0.114%
0.228%
0.000%
0.569%
0.113%
0.113%
0.226%
0.113%
0.113%
0.562%
0.559%
1.224%
0.330%
0.548%
0.545%
0.758%
0.108%
0.430%
0.749%
0.106%
0.318%
0.529%
0.526%
1.046%
0.414%
0.103%
0.309%
0.205%
0.307%
0.817%
0.709%
0.302%
0.301%
0.300%
0.897%
1.186%
0.293%
-0.292%
0.391%
0.973%
0.385%
0.480%
0.191%
0.095%
0.286%
-0.261%
-0.611%
-1.534%
-0.377%
-0.210%
0.591%
-1.085%
0.100%
-0.157%
0.300%
0.335%
-0.181%
-0.293%
-0.674%
-0.775%
-0.082%
-0.263%
-0.006%
-0.387%
0.041%
0.010%
0.114%
0.125%
0.294%
-0.268%
-0.226%
-0.702%
0.164%
-0.162%
-0.510%
-0.504%
0.157%
-0.197%
-0.705%
0.059%
-0.336%
-0.275%
-0.317%
-0.778%
-0.216%
-0.234%
-0.334%
-0.225%
0.205%
-0.321%
-0.461%
-0.500%
-0.339%
-0.203%
-0.342%
-1.395%
-0.450%
0.473%
-0.073%
-0.797%
-0.307%
-0.345%
-0.174%
0.012%
-0.046%
REGRESSION OUTPUT
USD/ZAR
Actual(A)
0.1000
0.1014
0.1000
0.1001
0.1106
0.1191
0.1239
0.1253
0.1258
0.1327
0.1336
0.1323
0.1331
0.1338
0.1299
0.1343
0.1359
0.1308
0.1304
0.1319
0.1367
0.1395
0.1442
0.1431
0.1457
0.1446
0.1387
0.1442
0.1483
0.1457
0.1468
0.147
0.141
0.1333
0.1253
0.1228
0.1218
0.1243
0.1302
0.1314
0.1274
0.1229
0.1188
0.1212
0.1211
0.1207
0.1155
0.1136
0.1156
0.1141
0.1125
0.109
0.1097
0.1077
0.0997
0.1006
0.0995
0.1
0.1009
0.098
0.0965
% change in
USD/ZAR
Exchange
Normative(B)
rate
1.4000
-1.3807
0.1000
10.4895
7.6854
4.0302
1.1299
0.3990
5.4849
0.6782
-0.9731
0.6047
0.5259
-2.9148
3.3872
1.1914
-3.7528
-0.3058
1.1503
3.6391
2.0483
3.3692
-0.7628
1.8169
-0.7550
-4.0802
3.9654
2.8433
-1.7532
0.7550
0.1362
-4.0816
-5.4610
-6.0015
-1.9952
-0.8143
2.0525
4.7466
0.9217
-3.0441
-3.5322
-3.3360
2.0202
-0.0825
-0.3303
-4.3082
-1.6450
1.7606
-1.2976
-1.4023
-3.1111
0.6422
-1.8232
-7.4280
0.9027
-1.0934
0.5025
0.9000
-2.8741
-1.5306
0.0997
0.1008
0.0985
0.0997
0.1104
0.1198
0.1226
0.1254
0.1256
0.1331
0.1340
0.1321
0.1327
0.1329
0.1289
0.1342
0.1355
0.1308
0.1299
0.1320
0.1367
0.1397
0.1444
0.1435
0.1453
0.1443
0.1377
0.1444
0.1481
0.1450
0.1461
0.1472
0.1407
0.1324
0.1254
0.1224
0.1215
0.1239
0.1292
0.1311
0.1271
0.1225
0.1185
0.1214
0.1207
0.1201
0.1149
0.1132
0.1154
0.1137
0.1109
0.1085
0.1102
0.1076
0.0989
0.1003
0.0992
0.0998
0.1009
0.0980
Difference
(A-B)
0.0017
-0.0008
0.0016
0.0109
0.0087
0.0041
0.0027
0.0004
0.0071
0.0005
-0.0017
0.0010
0.0011
-0.0030
0.0054
0.0017
-0.0047
-0.0004
0.0020
0.0047
0.0028
0.0045
-0.0013
0.0022
-0.0007
-0.0056
0.0065
0.0039
-0.0024
0.0018
0.0009
-0.0062
-0.0074
-0.0071
-0.0026
-0.0006
0.0028
0.0063
0.0022
-0.0037
-0.0042
-0.0037
0.0027
-0.0003
0.0000
-0.0046
-0.0013
0.0024
-0.0013
-0.0012
-0.0019
0.0012
-0.0025
-0.0079
0.0017
-0.0008
0.0008
0.0011
-0.0029
-0.0015
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.057178089
R Square
0.003269334
Adjusted R
Square
0.013915678
Standard Error
3.208713031
Observations
60
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
1
58
59
Coefficients
Intercept
inflation rate
differential
SS
1.958714784
597.1586804
599.1173952
Standard
Error
MS
1.958714784
10.29583932
F
0.190243333
Significance
F
0.66433343
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
1.10661672
257.6698321
0.110437364
0.497662315
0.22191225
0.825161712
0.885741992
46.10041452
105.6939449
0.436168927
0.66433343
-165.469003
USA CPI
Poland
Date
CPI
CPI
2008-12-01
2009-01-01
2009-02-01
2009-03-01
2009-04-01
2009-05-01
2009-06-01
2009-07-01
2009-08-01
2009-09-01
2009-10-01
2009-11-01
2009-12-01
2010-01-01
2010-02-01
2010-03-01
2010-04-01
2010-05-01
2010-06-01
2010-07-01
2010-08-01
2010-09-01
2010-10-01
2010-11-01
2010-12-01
2011-01-01
2011-02-01
2011-03-01
2011-04-01
2011-05-01
2011-06-01
2011-07-01
2011-08-01
2011-09-01
2011-10-01
2011-11-01
2011-12-01
2012-01-01
2012-02-01
2012-03-01
2012-04-01
2012-05-01
2012-06-01
2012-07-01
2012-08-01
2012-09-01
2012-10-01
2012-11-01
2012-12-01
2013-01-01
2013-02-01
2013-03-01
2013-04-01
2013-05-01
2013-06-01
2013-07-01
2013-08-01
2013-09-01
2013-10-01
2013-11-01
2013-12-01
99.98
100.23
100.60
100.50
100.60
100.75
101.58
101.55
101.89
102.09
102.39
102.74
102.79
102.85
102.75
102.77
102.80
102.77
102.76
102.95
103.11
103.23
103.58
103.83
104.25
104.56
104.90
105.44
105.96
106.37
106.41
106.67
106.95
107.20
107.24
107.42
107.40
107.67
107.89
108.18
108.39
108.25
108.22
108.20
108.75
109.29
109.56
109.34
109.30
109.40
110.00
109.76
109.58
109.78
110.13
110.31
110.40
110.55
110.56
110.68
110.95
0.231%
0.364%
-0.099%
0.101%
0.147%
0.830%
-0.030%
0.335%
0.193%
0.300%
0.335%
0.052%
0.055%
-0.099%
0.025%
0.033%
-0.035%
-0.006%
0.180%
0.154%
0.123%
0.340%
0.237%
0.407%
0.293%
0.332%
0.513%
0.494%
0.385%
0.032%
0.250%
0.264%
0.232%
0.038%
0.165%
-0.019%
0.252%
0.207%
0.260%
0.198%
-0.131%
-0.026%
-0.020%
0.513%
0.493%
0.245%
-0.199%
-0.039%
0.096%
0.552%
-0.225%
-0.159%
0.180%
0.317%
0.168%
0.078%
0.133%
0.017%
0.107%
0.240%
103.2
103.6
104.6
105.4
106.1
106.7
106.9
107.0
106.6
106.6
106.7
107.0
107.0
107.7
107.9
108.1
108.6
108.9
109.2
109.0
108.5
109.2
109.8
109.9
110.4
111.7
111.9
112.9
113.5
114.2
113.7
113.3
113.3
113.4
114.2
115.0
115.4
116.2
116.7
117.3
117.9
118.1
118.3
117.7
117.4
117.4
117.9
118.0
118.1
118.2
118.2
118.4
118.9
118.8
118.8
119.2
118.8
118.9
119.1
118.9
119.0
0.43%
0.93%
0.73%
0.73%
0.54%
0.18%
0.09%
-0.36%
0.00%
0.09%
0.27%
0.00%
0.63%
0.18%
0.27%
0.44%
0.26%
0.26%
-0.18%
-0.44%
0.62%
0.53%
0.09%
0.44%
1.22%
0.17%
0.94%
0.51%
0.59%
-0.42%
-0.34%
0.00%
0.08%
0.68%
0.67%
0.42%
0.66%
0.41%
0.49%
0.57%
0.16%
0.16%
-0.49%
-0.33%
0.08%
0.41%
0.08%
0.08%
0.08%
0.00%
0.16%
0.40%
-0.08%
0.00%
0.32%
-0.32%
0.08%
0.16%
-0.16%
0.08%
REGRESSION OUTPUT
Inflation
Rate
differential
-0.198%
-0.556%
-0.826%
-0.623%
-0.393%
0.649%
-0.119%
0.696%
0.193%
0.210%
0.065%
0.052%
-0.569%
-0.276%
-0.241%
-0.409%
-0.299%
-0.270%
0.357%
0.596%
-0.492%
-0.185%
0.150%
-0.029%
-0.913%
0.160%
-0.425%
-0.015%
-0.205%
0.454%
0.589%
0.264%
0.147%
-0.634%
-0.503%
-0.434%
-0.409%
-0.204%
-0.231%
-0.373%
-0.293%
-0.188%
0.468%
0.841%
0.411%
-0.163%
-0.281%
-0.121%
0.015%
0.552%
-0.387%
-0.561%
0.261%
0.317%
-0.154%
0.401%
0.052%
-0.144%
0.269%
0.159%
USD/PLN
Actual(A)
0.3277
0.3218
0.3250
0.3147
0.3144
0.3052
0.3070
0.3109
0.3141
0.3120
0.3207
0.3209
0.3196
0.3098
0.3152
0.3107
0.3026
0.2930
0.2904
0.2995
0.3152
0.3193
0.3155
0.2939
0.2937
0.3068
0.3138
0.3202
0.3478
0.3586
0.3625
0.3637
0.3633
0.3486
0.3471
0.3420
0.3304
0.3464
0.3509
0.3290
0.3229
0.3112
0.2976
0.3113
0.3468
0.3483
0.3395
0.3501
0.3519
0.3570
0.3507
0.3499
0.3448
0.3259
0.3104
0.3076
0.2971
0.2816
0.2759
0.3159
0.3359
% change in
USD/PLN
Difference
Exchange
Normative(B)
(A-B)
rate
-1.8004
0.9944
-3.1692
-0.0953
-2.9262
0.5898
1.2704
1.0293
-0.6686
2.7885
0.0624
-0.4051
-3.0663
1.7431
-1.4277
-2.6070
-3.1725
-0.8874
3.1336
5.2421
1.3008
-1.1901
-6.8463
-0.0681
4.4603
2.2816
2.0395
8.6196
3.1052
1.0876
0.3310
-0.1100
-4.0462
-0.4303
-1.4693
-3.3918
4.8426
1.2991
-6.2411
-1.8541
-3.6234
-4.3702
4.6035
11.4038
0.4325
-2.5266
3.1222
0.5141
1.4493
-1.7647
-0.2281
-1.4576
-5.4814
-4.7561
-0.9021
-3.4135
-5.2171
-2.0241
14.4980
6.3311
0.3271
0.3200
0.3223
0.3127
0.3132
0.3072
0.3066
0.3131
0.3147
0.3127
0.3209
0.3211
0.3178
0.3089
0.3144
0.3094
0.3017
0.2922
0.2914
0.3013
0.3136
0.3187
0.3160
0.2938
0.2910
0.3073
0.3125
0.3202
0.3471
0.3602
0.3646
0.3647
0.3638
0.3464
0.3454
0.3405
0.3290
0.3457
0.3501
0.3278
0.3220
0.3106
0.2990
0.3139
0.3482
0.3477
0.3385
0.3497
0.3520
0.3590
0.3493
0.3479
0.3457
0.3269
0.3099
0.3088
0.2973
0.2812
0.2766
0.3164
-0.0053
0.0050
-0.0076
0.0017
-0.0080
-0.0002
0.0043
0.0010
-0.0027
0.0080
0.0000
-0.0015
-0.0080
0.0063
-0.0037
-0.0068
-0.0087
-0.0018
0.0081
0.0139
0.0057
-0.0032
-0.0221
-0.0001
0.0158
0.0065
0.0077
0.0276
0.0115
0.0023
-0.0009
-0.0014
-0.0152
0.0007
-0.0034
-0.0101
0.0174
0.0052
-0.0211
-0.0049
-0.0108
-0.0130
0.0123
0.0329
0.0001
-0.0082
0.0116
0.0022
0.0050
-0.0083
0.0006
-0.0031
-0.0198
-0.0165
-0.0023
-0.0117
-0.0157
-0.0053
0.0393
0.0195
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.250375642
R Square
0.062687962
Adjusted R
Square
0.04652741
Standard Error
3.904245642
Observations
60
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
1
58
59
Coefficients
Intercept
inflation rate
differential
SS
59.12922926
884.1017737
943.231003
Standard
Error
MS
59.12922926
15.24313403
F
3.879072974
Significance
F
0.053673978
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
0.217741497
0.5103858
0.426621385
0.671234493
249.977116
126.9218163
1.969536233
0.053673978
0.803906682
4.084502803
Conclusion:
The purpose of this analysis is to empirically test the validity of relative purchasing power
parity. Looking at the regression results of the five countries we can say that the values are not
statistically significant to support the theory of relative purchasing power parity. The R2 values
of all country pairs are very low. There may be various reasons for this behavior. Even though
the difference between the calculated and the actual exchange is very less the regression result
does not support the theory. One reason may be that the number of observations taken for the
analysis is limited to sixty. Other reasons are that the short run inflation rates may not predict
the change in exchange rates as it requires some time for the system to incorporate or to take
into effect the new information. Factors like relative competitiveness, government debt and
speculation also affect the exchange rates. Therefore we can conclude that change in inflation
rates between two countries may not alone accurately predict the sport exchange rates.