SYSTEMS RESEARCH

FredWael chl i
Peter Wi ni warter
andCzesl awCempel
Roberta M. Snowand Arvi dJ . Bl oom
Paul Ledi ngton
Zbi gni ew
Wi l l i amWol kowski
3
9
35
47
61
67
TheOf f i ci al J ournal of the
I nternati onal
Federati on f or
Systems Research
Contents
BookRevi ews
Vol ume9 Number 4 1992
I SS/ 0731- 7239
El even Theses of General Systems Theory
(GET)
Li f e Symptoms: TheBehavi our of Open
Systems wi thLi mi ted Energy Di ssi pati on
Capaci ty andEvol uti on
Ethi cal Deci si on Maki ngStyl es i n the
Workpl ace: Underl yi ngDi mensi ons and Thei r
I mpl i cati ons
Rel evance, Formal i ty, and Process: Towarda
Theory
of Sof t Systems Practi ce
Correspondence
TheConcept of CoherenceConsi deredas a
Systems I somorphi sm
Li f e
Symptoms: the
Behavi our of Open
Systems
wi th
Li mi ted Energy
Di ssi pa-
ti on Capaci ty
and Evol uti on*
Peter
Wi ni warter* and Czesl aw
Cempel **
Abstract - For i ncome di stri buti ons,
ci ty- si ze di stri buti ons and
wordf requenci es we
observe skewed
or l ong- tai l ed di stri buti ons
of the
PARETO- ZI PF
type
. I ngeneral -
f or
properti es of uni ts bel ongi ng to the
same astrophysi cal , bi ol ogi cal ,
ecol ogi cal ,
urban,
soci al , pol i ti cal , economi c
or mechani cal machi nery
system- we observe
si mi l ar regul ari ti es ref erred to as Pareto
l aw, Zi pf s l awor rank- si ze
l aw.
We gi ve a short
hi stori cal overvi ew
over the di scovery of these
empi ri cal regul ar-
i ti es. Then
we revi ew a vari ety of
theoreti cal tentati ves, none of whi ch
can
"expl ai n" that si mi l ar regul ari ti es are
observed i n such an i ncredi bl e
wi de range of
sci enti f i c research
areas.
Fi nal l y, departi ng
f roma veryspeci f i c model -
descri bi ng tri bo- vi bro- acousti c
pro-
cesses i n machi nes -
we propose a general i zed
theoreti cal f ramework i n
terms of
energy transf ormati on
wi th l i mi ted i nternal energy
di ssi pati on capaci ty, whi ch i s
appl i cabl e to al l f i el ds.
The proposed model "uni f i es"
a l arge vari ety of concepts
and appl i es a coherent
termi nol ogy tof i el ds, whi ch
have at f i rst si ght nothi ng
i n common. For the observed
l i f e symptoms, theoreti cal
predi cti ons can be compared
wi th past and f uture
empi ri cal observati ons.
What i s most i mportant i s the
model ' s i nf erence power: f romthe
observati ons of a
set
of uni ts at a gi ven
moment of l i f e- ti me ( a snapshot of
the system) , one can
predi ct the average behavi our of
a si ngl e uni t over i ts enti re l i f e- ti me
.
Keywords-
Sel f - organi zati on, evol uti on, energy
transf ormati on, energy
di ssi pati on,
i nternal
structure, i nf ormati on, autocatal ysi s,
Pareto- Zi pf or rank- si ze di stri buti ons,
machi ne vi brati on
di agnosti cs, bi rth and death
processes, symptom- l i f e
curve,
resi dual l i f e- ti me .
Address -

*Bordal i er I nsti tute,
41270
Boursay,
France
; *Poznan Uni versi ty of
Technol ogy, 60- 965 Poznan,
Pol and.
1 I ntroducti on
What dovi brati ons of
el ectro- motors and machi nes i n general
have i ncommonwi th
atoms of stars, wi th chemi cal
compounds of the ocean, wi th
ani mal s of bi ol ogi cal
r
. .
Thi swork has been
partl y
f i nanced byagent
of the TEMPUS
of f i ce
of the European
Economi c
Communi ty,
Brussel s.
Systems Research Vol . 9, No
. 4, pp. 9- 34, 1992

Thesi s
Publ i shers
I SSN0731- 7239

a 1992
I nternati onal Federati onf or Systems
Research
speci es, wi t h i nhabi t ant s
of ci t i es, wi t h mar ket val ues of f i r ms, wi t h wor ds of a
l anguage . . . ?
Ar educt i oni st sci ent i st
woul d consi der t he above quest i on as r i di cul ous, i f not
i nsane .
And a "syst ems sci ent i st "?
Any sci ent i f i c act i vi t y - i ncl udi ng syst ems
sci ence - i s dr i ven by:
i ) a st r i ve f or economy of t hought ( f r omspeci f i c
obser vat i ons t o gener al model s
or t heor i es) : any model or t heor y
"compr essi ng" t he descr i pt i on and "si mpl i f y-
i ng" t he compr ehensi on of
pr esent or past obser vat i ons can be consi der ed as
sci ent i f i c
i i ) a st r i ve f or pr edi ct abi l i t y ( f r omgener al model s or t heor i es t o speci f i c
obser va-
t i ons) : any model or t heor y must be abl e t o be conf r ont ed t o speci f i c
past or
f ut ur e obser vat i ons .
The obj ect i ves of syst ems sci ence ar e st i l l t he same as st at ed al most 40 year s ago
by
t he
Soci et y
f or
Gener al Syst ems Resear ch:
1 t o i nvest i gat e t he i somor phy of concept s, l aws and model s f r omvar i ous
f i el ds, and t o hel p i n usef ul t r ansf er s f r omone f i el d t o anot her
2 t o encour age devel opment of
t heor et i cal model s
i n
f i el ds whi ch l ack t hem
3
t o mi ni mi ze dupl i cat i on of t heor et i cal ef f or t s i n di f f er ent f i el ds, and
4 t o pr omot e
t he
uni t y of
sci ence t hr ough i mpr ovi ng communi cat i ons among
speci al i st s .
I f we want t r ansdi sci pl i nar y
quest i ons t o be t aken ser i ousl y by t he "t r adi t i onal "
compar t ment s of
sci ence,
we
must
be
abl e
t o
pr oduce syst ems t heor i es, whi ch ar e
mor e t han si mpl i f i ed di agr ams of
f eedback l oops, ver bal st r eams of syst ems j ar gon
or t er r i bl y
compl i cat ed set s of di f f er ent i al equat i ons wi t hout any r ef er ence t o
exper i ment al dat a .
To put i t i n
a
mor e "f ashi onabl e" way,
sci ent i f i c syst emmodel s or t heor i es must be
f al si f i abl e i n t he sense of Popper . Thi s cr uci al aspect of sci ence i s unf or t unat el y
qui t e of t en negl ect ed, not onl y i n "syst ems" l i t er at ur e .
2 Empi r i cal obser vat i ons of Par et o- Zi pf di st r i but i ons
2. 1 Par et o, t he di st r i but i on of i ncomes i n economi c syst ems
The f i r st ext ensi ve di scussi on of t he pr obl emhowi ncome i s di st r i but ed among t he
ci t i zens of a st at e was made by Vi l f r edo Par et o[ 9] i n 1 897. On t he basi s of dat a
col l ect ed f r omnumer ous sour ces Par et o ar r i ved at t he f ol l owi ng l aw:
I n al l pl aces and at al l t i mes t he di st r i but i on of i ncome i n a st abl e economy,
when t he or i gi n of measur ement i s at a suf f i ci ent l y hi gh i ncome l evel , wi l l be
gi ven
appr oxi mat el y
by t he empi r i cal f or mul a
( 1 )
n = a S**Y
wher e n i s t he number
of peopl e havi ng
t he
i ncome
S or gr eat er , a and
. y
ar e
const ant s .
1
0
Pet er Wi ni war t er
abd
Czesl aw
Cempel
Fi gur e 1
I ncome di st r i but i on
i s an exampl e of a
skewed or " l ong- t ai l ed"
di st r i but i on.
2000000
-
1 000 000
[Number
of
per sons]
mwt axabl e
Mme>5
I ncome di st r i but i on
exampl e of
" l ong
t ai l ed" behavi our
S t axbl e i ncomeI i ncome
[monet ar u uni t s]
o 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000
Not e, t hat i t i s di f f i cul t t or epr esent
t he dat a gr aphi cal l y
wi t hi nor di nar y ar i t hmet i c scal es
.
The
dat a ar e
t axabl e
i ncomes of 1937i n Fr ance,
but any ot her count r y
and year yi el ds di st r i but i ons
of t he above t ype
I t i s ext r emel y
i nt er est i ng t o not e, t hat
empi r i cal obser vat i ons
of Par et o di st r i but i ons
ar e:
i ) not mar kedl y
i nf l uenced by t he
soci o- economi c st r uct ur e of
t he communi t y
under st udy
i i ) not mar kedl y i nf l uenced
by t he def i ni t i on of
" i ncome" .
The
Par et o l awhol ds f or a
f ewhundr ed bur gher s of a
ci t y- st at e of t he
Renai ssance
up t o t he
mor e t han l oo
mi l l i on t axpayer s i n t he
USA. Essent i al l y t he same
l aw
cont i nues
t o be f ol l owed by t he
di st r i but i on of " i ncome" ,
despi t e t he changes
i nt he
def i ni t i on
of t hi s t er m.
Not e: t hi s
empi r i cal evi dence i s a
cont r adi ct i on t o any i deol ogy
st r i vi ng f or equal
di st r i but i on of
i ncomes . As we shal l
see bel ow, t hi s goal i s
j ust as unr eal i st i c and
unnat ur al as
t he goal t o make al l ci t i es
of a count r y of t he
same number of
i nhabi t ant s, t o make
al l busi ness f i r ms of
equal si ze or t o use i n
a t ext al l wor ds
wi t h equal f r equency
.
Par et o was i nt r i gued by t he
gener al i t y of hi s di scover y
: " These r esul t s ar e
ver y.
r emar kabl e
. I t i s absol ut el y
i mpossi bl e t o admi t t hat
t hey ar e due onl y t o chance. '
Ther e
i s most cer t ai nl y a cause,
whi chpr oduces OWt endency
of i ncomes t o
ar r ange
t hemsel ves
accor di ng t o a cer t ai n
cur ve. "
Li f e Sympt oms : t he Behavi our of
Opensyst ems wi t h Li mi t ed Ener gy
Di ssi pat i onCapaci t y and Evol ut i on

1 1
Fi gur e
2 The dat a of Fi gur e 1 i n a l og- l og
pr esent at i on. y i s t he exponent
of t he
Par et o- Zi pf l aw. Not e
t he al most per f ect "
cor r el at i on
coef f i ci ent
1 . 2 Auer bach, t he
di st r i but i on of ci t y si zes i n count r i es
Looki ng f or a newmeasur e f or popul at i on
concent r at i on, Auer bach[ 1] anal yzed
t he
di st r i but i on of ci t i es wi t hi n a
count r y. He r anked t he ci t i es i n decr easi ng or der
of
i nhabi t ant s and di scover ed a r el at i onshi p
bet ween r ank andsi ze of t he
t ype
( 2)

SG) - aj * * bet a
wi t h S( j ) t he si ze of t he ci t y r anked j .
a and bet a ar e const ant s.
1 2
Pet er Wi ni war t er abd
Czesl awCempel
10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Income di st r i but i on
l og- l og pr esent at i on
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
( Par et o- Zi pf )
y=2. 39
10 0 0 0 0
cor r el at i on coef f i ci ent 0 . 999
[ number of per sons]
wi t h i ncome >5
10 0 0 0
Ioni c
s .
t axabl e i ncome
( monet ar y unl t s)
10 0
10 Door 10 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fi gur e
3 shows t he same dat aas i n Fi g. 2 af t er nor mal i zat i on. The gr aphshows
t he
cumul at i ve
pr obabi l i t y
as
af unct i on of t he di mensi onl ess sympt omS/ So.
S i s t he i ncome
and So t he l owest i ncome of t he obser ved set . For t r ans-
di sci pl i nar y compar i sons we pr ef er t he
nor mal i zedpr esent at i on
As an exampl e l et us consi der t he
ci t y- si ze di st r i but i on of Fr ance ( see al so Fi gur e
4. ) :
Tabl e 1 Exampl e
o
a
r ank- si ze di st r i but i on
Li f e Sympt oms
:
t he
Behavi our
of
Open
syst ems
wi t h Li mi t ed Ener gy Di ssi pat i on Capaci t y and Evol ut i on

1 3
I ncome di st r i but i on
di mensi onl ess
0. 1
l og- l og
pr esent at i on
0 . 01
y=2
. 39
cor r . coef f . - 0 999
Pr obabi l i t y t 0 obser ve
a val ue >S/ So
0, 001
0 . 0001
i ncome S/ So ( di mensi onl ess)
0 . 00001
i 0
i 00
Ci t y- si ze di st r i but i on Rank
Si ze
S
Par i s
1 8
549 898
Lyon 2
1 1 70660
Mar sei l l e 3
1 07091 2
Bor deaux 4 -
935 882
Toul ouse
5 61 2 456
Fi gur e 3 shows t he same dat aas i n Fi g. 2af t er
nor mal i zat i on. The gr aphshows t he
cumul at i ve pr obabi l i t y as af unct i on of t he di mensi onl ess sympt omS/ So.
S i s t he i ncome and So t he l owest i ncome of t he obser ved
sec
For t r ans-
di sci pl i nar y compar i sons we pr ef er t he nor mal i zedpr esent at i on
0. 01
0. 0001
0. 00001
Pr obabi l i t y t o obser ve
aval ue >
S/ So
I ncome di st r i but i on
di mensi onl ess
l ug- l og pr esent at i on
I nmme5I 5ol di me~si oni ess]
l oo
As an exampl e l et us consi der t he ci t y- si ze di st r i but i on of Fr ance ( see al so Fi gur e
4. ) :
Tabl e 1

Exampl e
o
a
r ank- si ze di st r i but i on
Li f e Sympt oms: t he Behavi our of Open syst ems wi t hLi mi t ed Ener gy Di ssi pat i on Capaci t y and Evol ut i on

13
Ci t y- si ze di st r i but i on Rank Si ze
S
Par i s 1 8 549 898
Lyon 2 1 170660
Mar sei l l e 3 1 070912
Bor deaux 4 935882
Toul ouse
5 612 456
Fi gur e 5 Dat a of
Fi gur e 4t r ansf or med t o t he nor mal i zed
domai n of pr obabi l i t y. Si s
t he ci t y- si ze andSt he smal l est or
t hr eshol d si ze f or ci t i es ( her e 10000)
1 . 3 Wi l l i s- Yul e,
t he di st r i but i on of speci es, gener a
and f ami l i es i n bi ol ogi cal
syst ems
Based on f i el d
obser vat i on i n Ceyl on i n 1912 Wi l l i s[ 15] f i r st
not i ced, t hat t he
di st r i but i on of speci es wi t hi n t he gener a
of an ecosyst emf ol l ows
a r egul ar i t y,
whi ch i s of t he Par et o- Zi pf t ype.
. . . t hi s
t ype of cur ve hol ds not onl y f or al l
t he gener a of t he wor l d, but al so
f or
al l
t he i ndi vi dual f ami l i es bot h of pl ant s and
ani mal s, f or endemi c and non- endemi c
gener a, f or
l ocal f l or as and f aunas . . . i t
obt ai ns t oo, f or al l t he deposi t s of Ter t i ar y
f ossi l s exami ned. "
Fur t her anal ysi s of dat a
have shown[ 20, 21] , t hat si mi l ar
r egul ar i t i es hol d al so f or t he
di st r i but i on
of par asi t es on host s, t he di st r i but i on of
i ndi vi dual s wi t hi n speci es and
t he di st r i but i on
of gener awi t hi n f ami l i es of any obser ved
ecosyst emat any t i me.
1 . 4 Zi pf , t he di st r i but i on
of wor ds i n l anguages
I n hi s magnumopus Zi pf [ 23 ] r epor t s
r egul ar i t i es of t he above t ype f or
a
wi de
var i et y of f i el ds, but hi s mai n i nt er est i s human
l anguage f or whi ch he anal yzed
wor d- f r equency
di st r i but i ons .
J ames J oyce' s
Ul ysses i s t he " r i chest " knownt ext wi t h al most 3 0
000wor ds and
wor d occur r enci es
r angi ng f r om1 t o 2653 . The empi r i cal dat a
canbe appr oxi mat ed
al most t oo per f ect l y
by a Par et o- Zi pf di st r i but i on.
Zi pf f ound r egul ar i t i es of si mi l ar t ype f or
al l t ypes of Engl i sh t ext , f or
al l t ypes of
l anguages and f or al l t i mes,
even f or Chi nese t ext and al so f or spoken l anguage
of chi l dr en of di f f er ent ages . The exponent
7
i s
i n al l cases cl ose t o 1.
The onl y except i ons r epor t ed by Zi pf ar e
t ext s wr i t t en by schi zophr eni cs and
sci ent i f i c Engl i sh!
Li f e Sympt oms : t he Behavi our of Open Syst ems
wi t h Li mi t ed Ener gy Di ssi pat i on Capaci t y and Evol ut i on

15
nor mal i zed
Par et o di st r i but i on
of ci t i es
0 . 1
gamma = 0 . 94
- _ cor r el . coef . = 0. 985
~s =
eo
__
0 . 01
_
Ci t y si ze S/ So I di mensi t mesel
0 . 001
t o
100 1000 .
Fi gur e 6
Speci es- si ze di st r i but i on of
Macr ol epi dopt er a, dat a f r om[ 20) ,
t r ansf or med t o
cumul at i ve
pr obabi l i t y domai n. 15609i ndi vi dual s wer e capt ur ed bel ongi ng
t o
240speci es
bi ol ogi cal speci es- si ze
di st r i but i on
gamma =0. 36
Conel . we11. . 0. 975
s. number
of i n
di vi dual s
wi t hi n
a
speci es
10Q
Fi gur e 7 Wor d count s f or
t ext s i n any l anguage yi el d Par et o- Zi pf di st r i but i ons. I n
nor mal i zedf or mt hegr aphshows t hepr obabi l i t y of awor dt o occur mor et han
St i mes i n t he t ext
0, 01
0. 001 -
0, 0001
J ames J oyce' s Ul ysses
wor d count s
wor d occur ence S[ number )
r - - 099
Cor r el . coef f . =. 0999
10

100

1000

19W0
I n t hi s par t i cul ar case S = S/ So, si nce t he l owest occur r ence of a wor d So - 1. For exampl e
t he wor d
Quar ks occur s onl y once i nt heent i r e t ext Dat af r omZi pf ( 23) , t r ansf or med
t o cumul at i ve pr obabi l i t y domai n
16 Pet er Wi ni war t er
abd Czesl awCompel
Zi pf al so r epor t s,
t hat t he di st r i but i on of sc i ent i st s wi t hi n a r esear c h di sc i pl i ne i s of
Par et o- Zi pf t ype . The obser ved
"sympt om"
of
a sc i ent i st
i s
measur ed as t he number
of c i t at i ons
i n
t he
physi c al
or
c hemi c al abst r ac t s .
Wr i t i ng t hi s paper , t he f i r st aut hor has di sc over ed t hat
t he si ze- di st r i but i on
of
pr o-
gr ams on t he har d di sk of a c omput er ar e of Par et o- Zi pf t ype . Pr ogr am- si ze i s
measur ed i n ki l obyt es . For PCuser s one has t o c ombi ne EXEand COMf i l es i n
or der t o
obser ve an
al most
per f ec t r egul ar i t y.
1 . 5
Si mon, t he
si ze
di st r i but i on of busi ness f ar ms
Her ber t
Si mon,
who won t he nobel pr i ze f or ec onomi c s i n 1 978, has i nt ensi vel y
st udi ed f i r m- si zes
:
Whet her
sal es, asset s, number of empl oyees, val ue added, pr of i t s, or c api t al i zat i on
ar e used as a si ze measur e, t he obser ved di st r i but i on al ways ar e of t he Par et o- Zi pf
t ype . Thi s i s
t r ue f or
t he dat a
f or i ndi vi dual i ndust r i es ( ec onomi c sec t or s) and f or
al l i ndust r i es t aken
t oget her . I t hol ds f or si zes of pl ant s as wel l as of f i r ms[ 1 3] .
Take any annual number of t he For t une
500 magazi ne and you c an ver i f y t hi s
asser t i on, whi c h
al so hol ds f or any nat i onal ec onomy and al so f or mul t i nat i onal
c ompani es on a wor l d l evel .
We have anal yzed t he For t une dat a over a per i od of 30
year s[ 1 7] and
f ound,
t hat
t he par amet er y of t he si ze- di st r i but i ons
r emai ns
al most
c onst ant . Thi s sel f - si mi l ar -
i t y of t he di st r i but i on c ur ves
hol ds i n per i ods of over al l ec onomi c gr owt h as wel l
as i n per i ods of ec onomi c r ec essi on and despi t e t he f ac t , t hat
f i r ms appear and
di sappear .
Fr omt he
50
l ar gest i ndust r i al f i r ms i n 1 954 onl y 20 c an be f ound among
t he 50 l ar gest 3 dec ades l at er , t he ot her 30 have dec l i ned i n
si ze, been absor bed i n
mer ger s and ac qui si t i ons or si mpl y have gone out
of busi ness . On t he ot her hand,
1 2 of t he 50 l ar gest f i r ms wer e not even r anked among t he 500 l ar gest i n 1 954 or
di d not even exi st at t hat t i me .
To
obser ve a c onst ant si ze- di st r i but i on despi t e t hi s i nt ensi ve shuf f l i ng ar ound wi t hi n
t he syst emi s qui t e r emar kabl e .
As Her ber t Si mon st at ed i n t he c onc l usi on of hi s paper : "We
need
t o knowmor e
about t he r el at i ons bet ween t he di st r i but i ons and t he gener at i ng pr oc esses" .
Si nc e t he gr aphs of t he empi r i c al dat a ar e monot onousl y si mi l ar , we wi l l not bur den
t he r eader wi t h exampl es .
Over t i me, t he Par et o- Zi pf l i ne seems t o ac t as an at t r ac t or f or "devi at i ng
poi nt s"[ 1 7] . For exampl e i n t he c omput er i ndust r y we had a si mi l ar si t uat i on as i n
t he c ase
of t he l ar gest Fr enc h c i t i es i n Fi gur e 4. I BMwas "t oo bi g" and t he next
t en f ol l owi ng c ompani es wer e "t oo smal l " . The evol ut i on of t he
l ast
1 0 year s
has
br ought t he "devi at i ons" al most bac k i n l i ne agai n due t o :
i ) a r el at i ve dec l i ne of t he gr owt h r at e of I BM
i i ) an above aver age gr owt h r at e of DEC

s
i i i )
sever al mer ger s and ac qui si t i ons among t he t op c omput er c ompani es .
Li f e Sympt oms: t he Behavi our of Open Syst ems wi t h Li mi t ed Ener gy Di ssi pat i on Capac i t y and Evol ut i on

1
7
1+6 Gut enber g- Ri cht er , t he di st r i but i on of ear t hquakes
I n
1956, t he geol ogi st s Beno Gut enber g and Char l es Ri cht er ( t he f at her of t he
sei smol ogi cal scal e of t he same name) di scover ed[ 6] , t hat t he number of i mpor t ant
ear t hquakes
i s
l i nked t o
t he number of smal l ear t hquakes :
t he
t awof Gut enber g- Ri cht er st at es, t hat t he number of annual ear t hquakes as a
f unct i on of t he l i ber at ed Ener gy,
i s a Par et o- Zi pf - di st r i but i on. The exponent y - 1+5
i s uni ver sal and
does not depend on t he geogr aphi cal r egi on!
1+7 Wi ni war t er , t he di st r i but i on
of el ement s i n cosmi c syst ems
The anal ysi s of chemi cal
el ement di st r i but i ons wi t hi n st ar s or wi t hi n t he ent i r e
cosmos i s t r adi t i onal l y pr esent ed as r el at i ve abundance ver sus
t he mass number of
t he el ement s.
Fi gur e 8 Di st r i but i on of chemi cal el ement s i n
t he uni ver se
Thi s t r adi t i onal r epr esent at i on of t he dat a - showi ng r el at i ve abundance as a f unct i on of at omi c mass -
does not al l ow t o deduce any quant i t at i ve r egul ar i t y. dat a compi l ed by
J . P. Meyer and A. G. W.
Camer on( 20]
Fr omt he above t ype of pr esent at i on one can deduce onl y a qual i t at i ve st at ement ,
t hat t he abundance of el ement s has a t endency t o decr ease st r ongl y wi t h mass-
number ,
wi t h except i onal peaks ar ound t he magi c number s.
Thi s t ype of r egul ar i t y
f or t he abundance
of
chemi cal el ement s can be obser ved f or
t he uni ver se, f or si ngl e st ar s, f or met eor i t es, f or t he
l i t hospher e +++
Si mi l ar r egul ar i t i es can be obser ved f or
st ar - si z e di st r i but i ons i n gal axi es,
f or t he
pl anet - si z e di st r i but i on i n our sol ar syst em, f or t he l unar - si z e di st r i but i ons
of
t he
J upi t er syst em+++
1
8 Pet er wi ni war t er abd Cz esl awCempel
1. 00E+12
1. OOE+11
H
1 . 00E+10
He
abundance of
chemi cal el ement s
1 . 00E+09
i n t he uni ver se
1. 00E+08
-
1. OOE+07 -
Fe
1. OOE+06
1. OOE+05
' -
1. O0E+04
-
1. 00E+03
- -
1 . OOE . 02
1. 00E01
-
at omi c mass
1 . 00E+00
u
1. 00E01
10
2a 3 0 e0 50 60 70 w90 100
Fi gur e 9 The same dat a as i n Fi gur e 8
as
a
nor mal i zed Par et o- Zi pf di st r i but i on
r eveal i ng a di st i nct quant i t at i ve r egul ar i t y
1 . 8 Cempel , t he di st r i but i on of
vi br at i on ampl i t udes
i n
mechani cal machi ne syst ems
Resear ch i n t he f i el d of
vi br at i on di agnost i cs[ 4] has r eveal ed, t hat l ong- t ai l ed
Par et o- l i ke di st r i but i ons ar e agood appr oxi mat i on f or t he dat ayi el ded by empi r i cal
measur ement s
of
vi br at i on sympt oms f or aset of "r unni ng" machi nes:
t he r egul ar i t i es ar e obser ved
i ndependent l y of t he machi ne t ype ( el ect r o mot or s,
di esel
engi nes
. . +)
1 . 9 Do we l i ve i n a Par et o- Zi pf wor l d?
The obser vat i on of si mi l ar phenomenaf or i ncomes, ci t i es, speci es, wor ds, ear t h-
quakes, chemi cal el ement s, machi ne vi br at i ons: howcan t hi s possi bl y make sense?
3 Model s "expl ai ni ng" Par et o- Zi pf di st r i but i ons
3. 1 Mat hemat i cal f or mof t he di st r i but i ons: l i mi t s of empi r i cal cur ve- f i t t i ng
Avar i et y of mat hemat i cal di st r i but i ons has been pr oposed t o f i t empi r i cal l ong
t ai l ed di st r i but i ons of t he di scussed t ype. Quandt [ 1 1 1 compar ed mor e t han 8
di f f er ent mat hemat i cal f unct i ons and comes t o t he concl usi on, t hat al l t he pr oposed
l aws ar e ver y si mi l ar .
I f
one
l aw
yi el ds
a
good
adj ust ment of t he dat a, t hen t hi s i s
al so t he case f or sever al ot her
l aws
.
Sear chi ng f or "best " empi r i cal
f i t s does not l ead t o a bet t er compr ehensi on of t he
obser ved phenomena. Unl ess t her e i s st r ong t heor et i cal evi dence,
t he
most
si mpl e
"l aw" l i ke t he Par et o- Zi pf di st r i but i on i s t o be pr ef er r ed t o mor e compl i cat ed
Li f e Sympt oms: t he Behavi our of Open Syst ems wi t h Li mi t ed Ener gy Di ssi pat i on Capaci t y
and Evol ut i on

1 9
chemi cal el ement s
I n t he uni ver se
s
- F
_
0. 1
-
y=0. 1 46
Con.
coef f.
. 0. 977
$/ So r el at i ve abundance of
el ement He
H
0 . 01
Fi gur e 9 The same
dat a as i n Fi gur e 8 as a nor mal i zed Par et o- Zi pf di st r i but i on
r eveal i ng
a
di st i nct
quant i t at i ve r egul ar i t y
chemi cal
el ement s
i n t he uni ver se
S/ So
r el at i ve
abundance of el ement
f
1+8 Cempel ,
t he di st r i but i on of vi br at i on ampl i t udes i n mechani cal machi ne syst ems
Resear ch i n t he f i el d of vi br at i on di agnost i cs[ 4] has
r eveal ed, t hat l ong- t ai l ed
Par et o- l i ke di st r i but i ons ar e agood appr oxi mat i on f or t he dat ayi el dedby empi r i cal
measur ement s of vi br at i on sympt oms f or aset of "r unni ng" machi nes:
t he r egul ar i t i es
ar e obser ved i ndependent l y of t he machi ne t ype ( el ect r o mot or s,
di esel engi nes . . . )
1 . 9 Do we l i ve i n aPar et o- Zi pf wor l d?
The obser vat i on of si mi l ar phenomenaf or i ncomes, ci t i es, speci es, wor ds,
ear t h-
quakes, chemi cal el ement s, machi ne vi br at i ons: howcan t hi s possi bl y make
sense?
3 Model s
"expl ai ni ng" Par et o- Zi pf di st r i but i ons
3. 1 Mat hemat i cal f or mof t he di st r i but i ons
:
l i mi t s
of empi r i cal cur ve- f i t t i ng
Avar i et y of mat hemat i cal di st r i but i ons has been pr oposed
t o
f i t
empi r i cal l ong
t ai l ed di st r i but i ons of t he di scussed
t ype
. Quandt [ 1l l ]
compar ed mor e t han 8
di f f er ent mat hemat i cal f unct i ons and comest o t he
concl usi on,
t hat
al l t he pr oposed
l aws
ar e
ver y
si mi l ar . I f one l awyi el ds a good adj ust ment of t he
dat a,
t hen t hi s
i s
al so
t he
case
f or sever al ot her l aws.
Sear chi ng
f or
"best " empi r i cal f i t s does not l ead t o a bet t er compr ehensi on of t he
obser ved phenomena
. Unl ess t her e i s st r ong t heor et i cal evi dence, t he most si mpl e
"l aw" l i ke t he Par et o- Zi pf di st r i but i on i s t o be pr ef er r ed
t o mor e compl i cat ed
Li f e Sympt oms
:
t he
Behavi our
of
open Syst emswi t hLi mi t ed Ener gy Di ssi pat i mCapaci t y and Evol ut i on

19
3. 4 Mandel brot - Wi ni wart er: f i rst
at t empt , a hol i st i c ext remumpri nci pl e
Mandel brot ,
t he i nvent or of Fract al s[ 7] , has
st udi ed i n det ai l t he t heory of
codi ng
and
gi ven an expl anat i on f or t he regul ari t i es
of word count s i n t erms of an ext re-
mumpri nci pl e:
wi t hi n
a t ext , t he quant i t y t o be opt i mi zed (
mi ni mi zed i s t he "average cost
per
word".
Assumi ng
t hat t he "cost " of a word depends
on t he "cost s" of i t s const i t ut i ng
l et t ers, Mandel brot
showed t hat t he resul t i ng
"opt i mal " di st ri but i on i s of t he Paret o-
Zi pf t ype.
Based on
a general pri nci pal of evol ut i on or
sel f - organi zat i on whi ch st at es, t hat t he
compl exi t y of a
sel f - organi zed syst emcan onl y growor remai n
const ant ( f i rst l aw
of genesi s) [ 19] ,
weput f orward t he hypot hesi s, t hat
Paret o- Zi pf t ype di st ri but i ons
are common t o al l
processes of sel f - organi zat i on ( second
l awof genesi s) [ 20] .
General i zi ng
Mandel brot ' s argument s f romwords
t o energy quant a, wespecul at ed,
t hat t he observed
Paret o- Zi pf regul ari t i es are
t he resul t of a general ext remum
pri nci pl e, whi ch
maxi mi zes what we have cal l ed t he
energy redundancy ( bi ndi ng
energy or synergy) wi t hi n
a sel f - organi zed syst em.
Thi s approach seems
very general andat t ract i ve, however -
besi des f or syst ems of
nucl eons - i t
i s di f f i cul t or i mpossi bl e t o veri f y.
3. 5 Roehner- Wi ni wart er
: second at t empt , Paret o
+
Paret o =
Paret o
The Gaussi an di st ri but i on
i s known t o be a l i mi t di st ri but i on of
randomvari abl es .
I t i s wel l known, t hat t he
randomsumof t wo Gaussi an di st ri but i ons
G, and
G2
yi el ds
a newdi st ri but i on G3 whi ch i s al so
Gaussi an.
G, G2 =G3
I t i s t oo general l y assumed, t hat
t hi s propert y i s uni que f or t he
di st ri but i ons cal l ed
"normal ", "bel l - shaped" or
Gaussi an.
Wehave shown, t hat Paret o
di st ri but i ons are possi bl e l i mi t di st ri but i ons
of sums of
randomvari abl es[ 16] .
Therandomsumof t wo
Paret i an di st ri but i ons P, and P2 yi el ds a new
di st ri but i on
P3
whi ch i s al so Paret i an.
P, P2 =P3
Based on
t hi s st at i st i cal st abi l i t y of Paret o di st ri but i ons,
we have expl ai ned t he
st abi l i t y of empi ri cal di st ri but i ons
as t he resul t of a st ochast i c
process :
St
. t aSt A
The di st ri but i on at t i me t +l depends
on t he di st ri but i on at t i me t mul t i pl i ed by a
f act or
a charact eri zi ng t he t ot al growt h of t he
syst em, pl us a devi at i on Aadded at
random.
I f
t he i ni t i al di st ri but i on i s Paret i an and
i f t he di st ri but i on of f l uct uat i ons A i s
Paret i an,
t hen t he resul t i ng di st ri but i on must al so be Paret i an
.
Thi s st at i st i cal st abi l i t y i s cert ai nl y
an i nt erest i ng andi mport ant f eat ure,
expl ai ni ng
t he ext reme perseverance of Paret o-
di st ri but i ons over t i me, but i t does not expl ai n
i n a sat i sf act ory way t hei r ori gi ns .
St at i ng t hat every observed regul ari t y i s t he
st ochast i c resul t of pri or regul ari t i es,
can be mat hemat i cal l y
correct , but i s not a very sat i sf yi ng
expl anat i on.
Li f e Sympt oms: t he Behavi our of Open Syst ems
wi t h Li mi t ed Energy Di ssi pat i onCapaci t y and
Evol ut i on

21
Wi t h r espect t o
our f i r st at t empt however , i t has
become cl ear , t hat t he f ol l owi ng
f eat ur es ar e
char act er i st i c f or Par et o- Zi pf
r egul ar i t i es i n al l obser ved
f i el ds :
Fi gur e 10 Thr ee l evel
descr i pt i on of a
hi er ar chi cal syst em:
el ement s/
quant a ( smal l
dot s, e. g. i nhabi
t ant s) ,
uni t s ( dot t ed ci r cl es,
e. g. ci t i es) , syst em ( f at
ci r cl e,
e. g. count r y)
4 The TVA
model : Li f e and deat hof
machi nes
22
i )

3 l evel hi er ar chi cal descr i pt i on
( see
Fi gur e 10+) :
- el ement s or
quant a
- uni t s
-
syst emwi t h obser vabl e
boundar y
i i )

bi r t h and deat hof uni t s as par t of
an
i r r ever si bl e evol ut i onar y
pr ocess
i i i ) hol i st i c or
gl obal syst em behavi our
( ener gy
opt i mi zat i on) .
3 . 6
Cempel - Wi ni war t er . t hi r d at t empt
open ener gy
t r ansf or mat i on syst ems
wi t h l i mi t ed
di ssi pat i on capaci t y
I n t he f ol l owi ng
we pr esent a model
whi ch has been or i gi nal l y
devel oped t o
expl ai n t he obser ved
sympt oms of "r un-
ni ng" machi nes of equal
t ype.
We shal l t hen
gener al i ze t he assumpt i ons
of t he machi ne model t o
any syst emof
ener gy t r ansf or mat i on uni t s .
The wear of
a machi ne, and t hus i t s condi t i on,
i s r el at ed t o t he ener gy di ssi pat ed
i n
t he t r i bo- Vbr o- acoust i cal
pr ocesses t aki ng
pl ace
wi t hi n
t he machi ne. Tr i bo
means
r ubbi ng, Vi br o means
vi br at i ng andAcoust i cal means
noi se ( j ust t hi nk of t he br eak-
down of your l ast car ) .
Thi s appr oach
was t he basi s f or t he el abor at i on
of t he TVAmachi ne
model i n
anal yt i cal f or m.
The model al l ows t o det er mi ne t he
condi t i on of a machi ne f r om
"passi ve" di agnost i c
exper i ment s ( i . e . measur ement s
whi char e non- dest r uct i ve and
whi chdo not i nt er r upt
t he r unni ng of t he machi ne) and i t
may be used f or condi t i on
f or ecast i ng[ 3] .
4. 1 Asi ngl e uni t
"r unni ng t o deat h" : a machi ne as an open
ener gy t r ansf or mat i on
syst em
We descr i be a mechani cal
machi ne as an open syst em i n t er ms
of ener gy f l ows.
The ener gy f l ows cover al l t ypes of
ener gy such as ki net i c ener gy and chemi cal
ener gy .
Ti me
i s measur ed as i nt er nal t i me of t he
syst eml i f e . Ener gy f l ow per
i nt er nal
t i me
uni t i s expr essed i n t er ms of power N- dE /
d0.
Pet er Wi ni war t er abd Czesl aw Cempel
For exampl e: mi cr o- f i ssi ons accumul at e, f or mi ng bi gger andbi gger
macr o- f i ssi ons .
When one of t he macr o- f i ssi ons cover s at l east hal f t he di amet er of a r ot at i ng
axi s,
t he syst em
br eaks down. ( see Fi gur e 14 bel ow) .
Fi gur e 14
I nf r a- St r uct ur es or I n- For mat i on: mi cr of i ssi ons as an exampl ef or t he
accumul at i on of
i nt er nal st r uct ur e: i ndependent i sl ands of mi cr of i ssi ons
( l ef t ) gr ow
i nt o a cont i nuous macr o- f assi on l eadi ng t o t he br eakdown of
t he st r uct ur e ( r i ght )
The di f f er ent i al i ncr ement of i nt er nal l y accumul at eddi ssi pat ed ener gy i s
f or mal l y:
( 2)
dF,
. [ 0, V( O) ]
=

s
- E
. ot [ O, V( O) ] dO+
- sE,
. , [ O
. V( O) ] dV
60 6V
Repl aci ng on t he r i ght hand si de F, accor di ng t o expr essi on ( 1) we get
e
( 3) dEj O, V( O) ] =
D[ O, V( O) ] dO+SVf P[ O' V( O) ] d0}dV
I t i s known f r omt r i bol ogy, t hat t he i nt ensi t y of t he i nt er nal wear pr ocess ( i t s power
D) i s gover ned mai nl y by t he power Vof t he ext er nal l y di ssi pat ed out put ( vi br a-
t i on,
heat et c . )
( 4) D[ O, V( O) ] =D[ V( O) ] +&D[ O, V( O) ] wi t he, 1
We t her ef or e can assume i n t he f i r st appr oa&, t hat t he t r ansf or mat i on
l awof
i nt er nal l y accumul at ed di ssi pat ed power Dand ext er nal l y di ssi pat ed power V i s
24 Pet er Wi ni wat t er
ahd Ci esl awCempel
const ant dur i ng t he l i f et i me 0of t he syst em: hence i s not a f unct i on of 0and can
be r epl aced by
Thi s si mpl i f i es
expr essi on ( 3) end we get
( 5) dEj O, V( o) ] =D[O, V( O) j dO+0dVD[V( 0) ] dV
as expr essi on f or t he di f f er ent i al
behavi our of i nt er nal l y accumul at ed di ssi pat ed
ener gy.
4. 3

"Wear " ampl i f i es
"wear ", posi t i ve f eedback l eadi ng t o aut ocat al yt i c or non-
l i near behavi our
Post ul at e 2: The ext er nal l y di ssi pat ed power
V
i s
pr opor t i onal t o t he amount of
di ssi pat ed ener gy Ei nt accumul at ed i nt er nal l y
:
( 6) dV( 0) - a dE, a, ( O)
wi t h a =const ant at f i r st appr oach.
Thi s means, t hat t he el ement ar y i ncr ease of i nt er nal l y accumul at ed di ssi pat ed
ener gy dE; a, ( O) i s r el at ed
t o t he ener gy ( or power ) i ncr ease of ext er nal di ssi pat i on
dV( O) , by t he conver si on coef f i ci ent a.
Repl aci ng t he di f f er ent i al dE, , ( O) i n ( 6) accor di ng t o ( 5) we obt ai n
( 7) dv( 0) =
a{D[O, V( 0) j d0+0
d
D[V( O) ] dV)
and t he di f f er ent i al equat i on f or ext er nal di ssi pat i on power
( 8) dV( O) - _

aD[O, V( 0) ]
d0

I - - a0
dVD[V( O) ]
4+4 Br eakdown t i me
The denomi nat or of ( 8) vani shes f or
aedD[V( 0) ] = 1
Accor di ng t o
our assumpt i ons
a and
ar e const ant over
i nt er nal
t i me 0and we can
def i ne t he br eakdown t i me Ob:
( 9) Ob =

1

=
dE, .
aOdD[V( 0) ]

dD
dV
As i t i s seen, t he br eak down t i me i s det er mi ned by t he i nt er nal st r uct ur e of t he
syst em and t he
way of
ener gy
di ssi pat i on i nsi de t he syst em.
4. 5 Di f f er ent i al equat i on gover ni ng di ssi pat i on r -
I nt r oduci ng ( 9) i nt o ( 8) we get
Li f e Sympt oms: t he Behavi our of Open Syst ems wi t h Li mi t ed Ener gy Di ssi pat i on capaci t y and Evol ut i on

25
( 10)
dV( O)
aD[ O, V( O) ]
dO
1-010
6
Sol vi ng
equat i on ( 10) wi t h
r espect t o i nt er nal l y accumul at ed
di ssi pat edpower Dwe
obt ai n
( 11) D( 0)

D
o
1-O/ Ob
wi t h 0 5O
<
O
b
and
Do t he i nt er nal l y di ssi pat ed
power Dat t i me
0 - 0.
Wi t h r espect t o
ext er nal di ssi pat i on
power
V
we obt ai n
V
0
( 12

V( 0)

1-
O/ Ob
wi t h 0 <_ 0
<Ob
and
V0 t he ext er nal l y
di ssi pat ed power Vat t i me 0
-
0+
I t i s seen f r omabove
t hat bot h syst emvar i abl es
Dand Var e col i near
and r each
i nf i ni t y at t he
br eakdown t i me 0 =Ob.
4. 6 The sympt om
l i f e cur ve
i n pr act i ce i t i s i mpossi bl e
t o obser ve di r ect l y t he
t ot al di ssi pat ed power s
V( O) or
D( O) i n par t i cul ar . I nst ead,
we ar e obser vi ng asympt om
of t he wear pr ocess
l i ke
vi br at i on, noi se, t emper at ur e,
vol t age et c.
Let us assume, t hat t he
chosen sympt omS( O) i s a f unct i on
of V( O) , whi ch can at
t he f i r st
appr oach be appr oxi mat ed by
an exponent
r el at i on
( 13) S( O)
=
I D[ V( O) ] -
[ V( O) ] ' n
wi t h S0 =
4' ( V0)
I nt r oduci ng
( 13) i n ( 12) we obt ai n t he
sympt oml i f e cur ve of t he
syst em:
( 14) S)
- ( 1-0/ 0b) -ur
0
whi ch i s shown qual i t at i vel y
i n Fi gur e 15.
I f
one has t he choi ce among
di f f er ent obser vabl e
sympt oms, one shoul d sel ect t he
one wi t h t he l owest y val ue
( most sensi t i ve) f or good
di agnost i c and pr ognost i c
r esul t s[ 4] .
4+7 Agr oup
of "r unni ng" uni t s :
t he cumul at i ve sympt ompr obabi l i t y
cur ve
I n ver y r ar e cases
we have t he oppor t uni t y t o
obser ve t he same obj ect over
i t s
ent i r e l i f e-t i me.
Usual l y we obser ve a
gr oup of obj ect s of t he same t ype
. So i nst ead of obser vi ng a
si ngl e
det er mi ni st i c
pr ocess of sympt oml i f e devel opment ,
we ar e obser vi ng an aut o
r egr essi ve
st ochast i c pr ocess S =S ( O/ Ob,
0) .
Her e 0/ 06 i s t he di mensi onl ess l i f et i me,
whi chmonot oni cal l y i ncr eases,
and A, i s a
vect or of
component s, whi ch ar e speci f i c f or
each i ndi vi dual uni t .
26
Pet er
Wi ni war t er and czesl aw Cempel
Fi gur e 15 Li f e t i me
behavi our of sympt oms of "wear ". Ever y t ype
of sympt om
appr oaches i nf i ni t e val ue asympt ot i cal l y at t he vi ci ni t y of t he br eakdown
t i me
O/ Ob
- 1. The l ess t he val ue of t he exponent
T,
t he mor e
sensi t i ve i s
t he sympt om
12, 00 -
10, 00 -
E 6, 00 -
r ,
6, 00
-
E
v
4, 00 -
2, W-
- 2- 2- 7-
Sympt oml i f e
cur ve
y=2
O' Du

0

0, 1

0, 2

0. 9

0, 4

0, 5

0, 6

0, 7

0, 6

0, 9
dl meml onl ess
Li f et i me
0
I n t he case of machi nes, t hese component s i nf l uenci ng t he
l i f e of a machi ne, may
be smal l di f f er ences i n qual i t y ( a "Monday car ") ,
di f f er ences of f oundat i ons
( suppor t ) , di f f er ences i n l oad
i nt ensi t y anddi f f er ences i n t he qual i t y of mai nt enance
f or t he i ndi vi dual uni t s, t o name onl y t he most i mpor t ant
.
For one
uni t , t hese component s and many ot her f act or s, mi ght be known and
consi der ed as det er mi ni st i c. For a gr oupof uni t s, we have t o acknowl edge t hemas
r andom, due t o our l ack of knowl edge
.
Taki ng ast at i st i cal appr oach
i nst eadof t he det er mi ni st i c one, we consi der agr oup
of N1 di f f er ent uni t s of t he same t ype bei ng each at di f f er ent
l i f e- t i me st age.
Measur i ng t he empi r i cal sympt omval ue S, f or
each uni t , we can make an or der ed
empi r i cal st at i st i cs of t he t ype
( 15) P( Sc 2 S) = r p( S) dSc
=
n(
S" >S)
I!

N
Wher e P( S" 2 S) i s t he cumul at i ve pr obabi l i t y t o obser ve empi r i cal sympt om
val ues
S, whi ch ar e gr eat er or equal t o a pr escr i bed val ue S, and n ( . ) i s t he number of
machi nes wi t h t hat pr oper t y.
The cumul at i ve pr obabi l i t y P can be expr essed_as t he
pr obabi l i t y densi t y p( SJ
i nt egr at ed f r omSupwar dt o i nf i ni t y.
For
agi ven set of di scr et e obser vat i ons, we appr oxi mat e t hi s i nt egr al by t he r at i o
Li f e Sympt mns: t he Behavi our of
Open
syst ems
wi t h Li mi t edEner gy Di ssi pat i on Capaci t y andEvol ut i on

27
of uni t s n( . )
wi t h an obser ved sympt omval ue super i or
or equal t o S, di vi ded by t he
t ot al number of
uni t s obser ved N.
Not e: i n
engi neer i ng t he pr obabi l i t y ( 15) i s
cal l ed r el i abi l i t y ; i t i s si mpl y an
empi r i cal est i mat e
f or t he cor r ect f unct i oni ng
of a machi ne f or whi ch t he obser ved
sympt omS.
exceeds a val ue S.
The
gener al st at i st i cal r el at i onshi p[ 8]
( 16) p( S) dS =p( O) dO
gi ves us t he possi bi l i t y
t o cal cul at e t he pr obabi l i t y densi t y i n
t he t i me domai n O
and i n t he sympt omdomai n S.
For t he sympt omdomai n
we get
( 17) P( S) =p( O)
a0
wher e p( O) i s
t he densi t y of obser vat i on
i n t he t i me domai n. The der i vat i ve
can be
cal cul at ed f r omt he sympt oml i ve cur ve ( 14)
as
( Y-i
d0 SoS01
( 18)
d ATS
We assume t he densot y of
empi r i cal obser vat i ons t o be of t he f or m
( 19)

p( O) =

S30)

; wi t h n Z0.
0
Put t i ng now( 19)
and ( 18) i nt o ( 17) and t he r esul t i nt o t he
i nt egr al of ( 15) one can
f i nd f or t he cumul at i ve
sympt omdi st r i but i on
( 20)

P( Se 2 S) =

YSol
Sa
I

dS~ =
d

Y
Sa
Sz
SS
0

S
One can see f r omabove, t hat
i ndependent l y of t he way of
obser vat i on - t he
exponent n i n ( 19) -
t he cumul at i ve sympt ompr obabi l i t y di st r i but i on
i s of
Par et o t ype.
For t he si mpl est condi t i on, wher e t he
f r equency of obser vat i ons of a uni t i s not
r el at ed
t o t he sympt om-l i f e behavi our ( n =
0) , one can obt ai n t he f ol l owi ng
behavi our f or t he cumul at i ve sympt omdi st r i but i on
Y

Y
( 21)

P( S,
ZS) =

S
~

=
~Sal

; wi t h
Y
>0.
; wi t h yandn20.
dO
dS
Thi s means : i f t he
sympt om-l i f e cur ve of a uni t i s of t he t ype ( 14) - due
t o a
l i mi t ed pot ent i al of ener gy
di ssi pat i on - t hen t he cumul at i ve di st r i but i on
of
sympt oms f or a gr oupof uni t s
wi l l be of Par et o t ype.
4+8 I nf er ence: pr edi ct i ve power
Accor di ng
t o our t heor y t he exponent
Y
i n ( 2, 1) i s t he same as
t he exponent
Y
i n
( 14)
and r el at es t he behavi our of a set of uni t s of a syst emat a
gi ven t i me wi t h t he
aver age behavi our of a si ngl e
uni t over t i me.
28

Pet er
wi ni war t er
and
Czesl aw
Cempel
I n pr act i ce, havi ng det er mi ned t he exponent y f r om an empi r i cal cumul at i ve
sympt omdi st r i but i on ( 21) , we can pr edi ct t he aver age behavi our of a gi ven uni t
usi ng t he sympt oml i f e cur ve ( 14) .
I f one can obser ve sever al sympt oms of evol ut i on of t he same syst em, havi ng
det er mi ned t hei r yval ues, one can choose t he most sensi t i ve sympt ombasedon t he
pr i nci pl e of mi ni mal y val ue[ 4] .
For exampl e, i n t he f i el d of economi cs we obser ve f or t he f i r ms of a gi ven count r y
r egul ar i t i es of t ype ( 21) : f or annual sal es, pr of i t s, number of empl oyees, capi t al i z -
at i on et c . Accor di ng t o our t heor y, t hese ar e di f f er ent sympt oms of t he same
under l yi ng ener gy t r ansf or mat i on
pr ocess
. For pr edi ct i on
we
shoul d
sel ect
t he most
sensi t i ve sympt om, i . e
. t he one wi t h t he l owest yval ue.
Mor eover , havi ng det er mi ned t he mi ni mal y sympt oms f or syst ems of di f f er ent
nat ur e, l i ke t he exampl es shown i n t hi s paper , we can t r y t o dr awsome concl usi ons
as bel ow.
At hand of t he above exampl es, we have shown t he gener al possi bi l i t i es of our
t heor et i cal appr oach, but we l eave i t t o t he speci al i st s of a gi ven f i el d of sci ence,
t o do a mor e i n dept h anal ysi s.
5
Concl usi on
Al l pr ocesses of
sel f - or gani z at i on
or evol ut i on pr oduce sympt oms
of
t he Par et o- Zi pf
t ype
on
anyobser vabl e l evel
of or gani z at i on ( second l awof genesi s) .
I t was shown her e, t hat t he pr esent at i on of Par et o- Zi pf dat a i n t er ms of nor mal i z ed
cumul at i ve pr obabi l i t y al l ows t o:
i )

or der dat a i n a common and compar abl e way. For exampl e see t he chemi cal
el ement di st r i but i ons of Fi gur e 8, whi ch can be descr i bed by a si mpl e l awaf t er
" or der i ng" ( Fi gur e 9)
i i ) t o make i nf er ences and dr awconcl usi ons f r omt he di f f er ent val ues of t he
exponent y+ Pr evi ousl y t he coef f i ci ent s yand P i n Par et o or Zi pf di st r i but i ons
wer e onl y mat hemat i cal f i t t i ng par amet er s. I n our model y has meani ng i n
t er ms of ener gy t r ansf or mat i on and l i f e- t i me
i i i ) f or an i ndi vi dual uni t , i n t he pr esent ed model of open syst ems wi t h l i mi t ed
di ssi pat i on
capaci t y, t he coef f i ci ent y det er mi nes t he behavi our over i t s l i f e-
t i me ( see t he sympt oml i f e cur ve of Fi gur e 15)
Li f e Sympt oms: t he Behavi our of Open Syst ems wi t h Li mi t ed Ener gy Di ssi pat i on Capaci t y and Evol ut i on

29
Type of evol vi ng syst em y Par et o comment
Uni ver se ( chem. el . ) 0. 146 ( Fi g. 9) ver y ol d
Bi ol ogi cal ( speci es) 0. 36 ( Fi g. 6) ol d
Ur ban ( ci t i es) 0. 94 ( Fi g. 5) young
Language ( wor ds) 0. 99 ( Fi g. 7) young
Economi c ( i ncomes) 2. 39 ( Fi g. 3) ver y young
i v) i f appl i ed t o a set
of
uni t s ( syst em) ,
t he model r eveal s Par et o- l i ke behavi our ,
not possi bl e t o expl ai n by pr evi ous st at i st i cal consi der at i ons ( see[ 12] f or
exampl e) . Recent st udi es of t hi s pr obl em
have shown, t hat t hi s model gi ves
gener al r esul t s i n
t he
f or m
of
Fr echet
di st r i but i ons[ 5] . The Par et o di st r i but i on
i s t he asympt ot i c appr oxi mat i on of
Fr echet onl y
v)

t he coef f i ci ent y per mi t s
t o
make
i nf er ences f r omt he obser vat i on of a set of
uni t s concer ni ng t hei r f ut ur e
behavi our
and
t he aver age l i f e ext pect anci es of t he
uni t s const i t ut i ng
t he
syst em
.
Ref er ences
1+ F. Auer bach, Das
Geset z der Bev6l ker ungskonzent r at i on. Pet er mans Mi t t ei l ungen, r i 1
( 1913) , 59
2. P. Bak and K. Chen,
1, es
syst mes cr i t i ques aut o- or gani ss . Pour l a Sci ence, hor s
ser i e, Sept . ( 1991) see al so P. Bak, C. Tang and K. Wi esenf el d, Sel f - or gani zed cr i t i cal l y,
Phys. Rev. , A38 ( 1988) 364
3.
C.
Cempel , The
wear pr ocess and t he machi ner y vi br at i on - a Tr i boVi br oAcust i cal
model , Bul l . Pol i sh Academy
of Sci ences, Techn. Sc. 35, N' 7- 8 ( 1987) , 347- 363
4.
C.
Cempel ,
Condi t i on evol ut i on of machi nes and i t s assessment f r ompassi ve di agnos-
t i c exper i ment .
Mechani cal Syst ems and Si gnal Pr ocessi ng 5 ( 1991)
5. C. Cempel , Damage I ni t i at i on and Evol ut i on i n oper at i ng Mechani cal Syst ems.
Bul l . Pol i shAcademy of Sci ences, Techn. Sc . 40, N' 3 ( 1992) , 1- 14
6. C
. F
. Ri cht er , El ement ar y Sei smol ogy, Fr eeman, San Fr anci sco ( 1958)
7. B. Mandel br ot , The Fr act al Geomet r y of Nat ur e. Fr eeman, San Fr anci sco ( 1982)
8. A. Popul i s, Pr obabi l i t y, RandomVar i abl es, St ochast i c Pr ocesses. Mc ; Gr awHi l l , New
Yor k ( 1965)
9. V, Par et o, Cour s d' Economi e Pol i t i que. vol . 2, book 3, chapt er 1. Lausanne ( 1897)
10. D. Pumai n,
La
Dynami que des Vi l l es, Economi ca, Par i s ( 1982)
11. R. E. Quandt , St at i st i cal di scr i mi nat i on among
al t er nat i ve hypot hesi s and some
economi c r egul ar i t i es. J our nal
of
Regi onal
Sci ence
5, n* 2 ( 1964) ,
1- 23
12. H. A. Si mon, On a cl ass of skewdi st r i but i ons . Bi omet r i ka
42
( 1955) ,
425- 440
13. H. A. Si mon and C. P. Boni ni , The si ze di st r i but i on of busi ness
f i r ms
.
Amer i can
Economi c Revi ew48 ( 1958) , 607- 617
14. J . St ei ndl , RandomPr ocess andt he Gr owt h of Fi r ms . Char l es Gr i f f i n, Hi gh Wycombe
( 1965)
15. J . C. Wi l l i s and G. U. Yul e, Somest at i st i cs of evol ut i on andgeogr aphi cal di st r i but i on i n
pl ant s and ani mal s, and t hei r si gni f i cance. Nat ur e 109 ( 1922)
16. B. Roehner andP. Wi ni war t er , Aggr egat i on of i ndependent Par et i an r andom
var i abl es .
Advances i n Appl i ed Pr obabi l i t y 17 ( 1985) , 465- 469
17. B. Roehner and P. Wi ni war t er , Homeost at i c
t endenci es of f i r m- si ze di st r i but i ons and
t he evol ut i on
of
economi c syst ems. Pr oceedi ngs of t he si xt h i nt er nat i onal Congr ess of
Cyber net i cs and Syst ems of
t he
WOGSC
( 1984) , 999- 1005
18.
C
. B. Wi l l i ams, The st at i st i cal out l ook
i n ecol ogy . J. Ecol ogy 42 ( 1954) , 1- 13
19. P. Wi ni war t er , TheGenesi s Model . Par t 1: Compl exi t y, a
measur e f or t he evol ut i on of
sel f - or gani zed syst ems
.
Spec
. Sci ence and Technol ogy 6 ( 1983) 11- 20
20. P. Wi ni war t er , The Genesi s Model .
Par t I I : Fr equency di st r i but i ons of el ement s i n gel f -
or gani zed syst ems.
Spec.
Sci ence and Technol ogy 6 ( 1983) , 103- 112
30
Pet er Wi ni war t er abd Czeal awCempel
21. P. Wi ni war t er , I so- dynami cs of popul at i on- si ze di st r i but i ons i n hi er ar chi cal
syst ems
.
Pr oceedi ngs of t he Soci et y
f or Gener al Syst ems Resear ch vol . l ( 1985) , 87- 95
22. P+ Wi ni war t er , Si ze- di st r i but i ons and hi er ar chi cal cont r ol i n bi ol ogi cal syst ems.
Bi ol ogi e Thor i que. Edi t i ons du CNRS, Par i s ( 1987)
23. G. K. Zi pf , Human Behavi our and t he Pr i nci pl e of l east Ef f or t , Addi son
Wesl ey,
Cambr i dge Mass. ( 1948)
Li f e Sympt oms : t he Behavi our of OpenSyst ems wi t h Li mi t edEner gy Di ssi pat i on Capaci t y endEvol ut i on

31
Appendi x:
Gener al i zed l i f e symptoms
The pr esented
model " expl ai ns" the
Par eto- Zi pf r egul ar i ti es
i n ter ms of a gener al pr ocess
of evol uti on:
1) Di ssi pati on:
on ami cr o- l evel
weobser ve the di ssi pati on
of ener gy quanta.
Dependi ng on the
type of ener gy tr ansf or mati on,
the uni t accumul ates
str uctur al quanta
wi thi n a l i mi ted
i nter nal potenti al . These
i nter nal l y f or med str uctur es ar e
i nf or mati on i n
the i ni ti al
sense of the wor d.
2) Devel opment :
on an i nter medi ate or
uni t- l evel , we obser ve the
devel opment of uni ts f r om
" bi r th" to
" death"
f ol l owi ng a symptom- l i f e cur ve.
i .

By
bi r th weunder stand the
begi nni ng of a di ssi pati ve
ener gy tr ansf or mati on pr ocess
wi thi n a uni t . Bydeathwe
under stand the end or br eak- down
of the di ssi pati ve
ener gy
tr ansf or mati on
pr ocess wi thi n the uni t .
i i .

Bi r th and death, and
hence l i f e, can be obser ved
f or ener gy tr ansf or mati on
pr ocesses
of a
nestedhi er ar chyof ener gy types:
el ectr omagneti c, gr avi tati onal ,
nucl ear , i nor gani c
chemi cal ,
bi o- chemi cal ,
economi c, " mental " and " symbol i c"
ener gy.
i i i . Natur al
death occur s, wheni nter nal l y
accumul ated di ssi pati on
ener gy, i ts i nf or mati on
i n the f or m
of str uctur e, r eaches
a l i mi t val ue.
3) Evol uti on:
on ametasystem- l evel or
macr o- l evel weobser ve
i )

a gl obal opti mi zati on
of ener gy f l ows ( l oad
opti mi zati on) f or a set of " r unni ng"
or
" l i vi ng" uni ts
i i )

desi gn
or code modi f i cati on f or the next
gener ati on of uni ts ( adaptati on)
i i i )
r e- desi gn, compl eter ecodi ng or
code- cr eati onf or anenti r e new
technol ogy ( evol uti on) .
4)
Recur si veness:
I n the
f i el d of Geometr yf r actal s
r epr esent a sel f - si mi l ar i ty
of geometr i cal shape i ndepen-
dent of scal e.
I n the
f i el d of pr ocesses, l i ke
devel opment and evol uti on,
we can speak of f r actal - l i ke
pr ocesses i . e. a sel f - si mi l ar i ty of
str uctur i ng ener gy tr ansf or mati on
pr ocesses
i ndependent
of
scal e and type of ener gy.
Tabl e 2
gi ves an over vi ewof the f i el ds f or
whi ch Par eto- Zi pf di str i buti ons
ar e obser ved:
Star s
and nucl ear ener gy tr ansf or mati on
Nucl i des and atoms ar e
" f r ozen" i n- f or mati on of star l i f e- cycl es
Pl anets and i nor gani c chemi cal
ener gy tr ansf or mati on
Chemi cal compounds and bi o- mol ecul es
ar e " f r ozen"
i n- f or mati on of pl anet l i f e- cycl es
Ecosystems and bi o- chemi cal
ener gy tr ansf or mati on
Speci es and gener a
of pl ants and ani mal s ar e
" f r ozen" i n- f or mati on of
ecosysteml i f e-
cycl es.
3 2
Pete
Wi ni war ter and
Czesl awCempel
Economi cal syst ems and money t r ansf or mat i on
Goods and money ar e " f r ozen" i n- f or mat i on of economi c l i f e- cycl es .
Ci t i es ar e " f r ozen" i n- f or mat i on or t he i nf r ast r uct ur e of economi c l i f e cycl es
Soci o- cul t ur al syst ems andment al ( l i ngui st i c) ener gy t r ansf or mat i on
Wr i t t en wor ds ar e " f r ozen" i n- f or mat i on of cul t ur al l i f e- cycl es.
Sci ent i f i c syst ems and f or mal ( symbol i c) ener gy t r ansf or mat i on
For mal t heor i es ar e " f r ozen"
i n- f or mat i on
of sci ent i f i c r esear ch l i f e cycl es .
I t goes beyond t he scope of t hi s paper , t o t hi nk t hr ough i n det ai l t he appl i cat i on of our
model t o al l t he
ci t ed
f i el ds,
but we hope
t o
st i mul at e t he r eader t o anal yze " hi s speci al
f i el d" i n t he l i ght of t he j ust pr esent ed t heor y of l i mi t ed ener gy di ssi pat i on capaci t y .
Li f e Sympt oms: t he Behavi our of Open Syst ems wi t h Li mi t ed Ener gy Di ssi pat i onCapaci t y and Evol ut i on

33
Tabl e 2 Energy t ransf ormat i on
syst emsf or whi chwecan
observe Paret o- Zi pf di st ri but i ons
( general i zed ' Li f e- sympt oms")
3
4
Pet er
Wi ni wart er and
Czesl aw
Cempel
Evol ut i on and Paret o- Zi pf di st ri but i ons
EV O LU T[ O N
<~1
measured
st ruct ural
R
) ^
QU AN TA-
EMI SSI O N EMI SSI O N
cosmi c
" . .
l i ght i nt ensi t y
muss
"
M
<
peri odi c t raj ect ori es
r
qua F
-
spet ral i nt ensi t y
t hem. el ement s
( nucl ei des)
geol ogi cal
eart hquak e i nt ensi t y
pl at es, bl ocs
a
~
" <
chemi cal S eart h '
hem. el ement
anorgani c
;
N
. ,
~
.
: f requency
chemi cal
l s`
3
b
c<
~f ~
. ~xs~~,
,
~1
compounds
bi n- chemi cal
compoundf requency
organt c
orga
compounds
bi ol ogi cal
v
s~ " .
as
p
g
< . .
~, d cl ass
al ms
DN A, RN A
( genes)
soci o- economi c c
n
i
i zes I n
f
rast ruct ure
t i c
Yt ~8 & '
ona~ i nhabi t ant s k ' La
r
f i rm- si zes
asset s
~ i a
<
~ep
~Pf o2"t 51h
~
SRY
Pl
yesa
W
i mark et val ue
w
a"2~, F
"MM
1
, ~sm
S'
V
N
m
B ` '
SI R. i l as
cul t ural
e
word f requenci es
symbok l een
d~ k nees
t echni cal vl b' nt i m
ampl i t ude i nf rasi rucl ure
( damage quant a)
4Y
g
sci ent i f i c
ci t at i on f requenci es publ i cat i ons
& ~
sLS
~ momma
*undergoi ng bi rt h and deat h
11 X,
**i rreversi bl y accumul at ed
i n-
Processes
f ormat i on wi t hi n auni t