Determining the

Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais

Determining the Geometry of a

Three-sided Fair Coin
Exploring the Probability of a Coin Landing on its Edge

Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

B. Blais
Department of Science and Technology, Bryant University
Institute For Brain and Neural Systems, Brown University

October 2005

Outline

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction

Introduction

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons

Conclusions

Conclusions
References

Outline

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction

Introduction

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons

Conclusions

Conclusions
References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Coin

B. Blais
Introduction

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons

Defintions
h/R
p
l = R2 + (h/2)2


h
atan 2R
= atan(/2)

R
2

Conclusions
References

The Question

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

What is the probability, pedge , for the coin to land on the

edge, as a function of the radius, R, and the height, h?

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Restricted version of the question for a fair coin:

What values of h and R yield pedge (h, R) = 1/3?

The Question

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

What is the probability, pedge , for the coin to land on the

edge, as a function of the radius, R, and the height, h?

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Restricted version of the question for a fair coin:

What values of h and R yield pedge (h, R) = 1/3?

Outline

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction

Introduction

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons

Conclusions

Conclusions
References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Surface Area

B. Blais

Probability proportional to the surface area

Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions

pedge (h, R) =
pedge () =

2Rh
2R2 + 2Rh

1+

For the fair coin we obtain

1+

1
3
1
2

Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Surface Area

B. Blais

Probability proportional to the surface area

Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions

pedge (h, R) =
pedge () =

2Rh
2R2 + 2Rh

1+

For the fair coin we obtain

1+

1
3
1
2

Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Surface Area

B. Blais

Probability proportional to the surface area

Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions

pedge (h, R) =
pedge () =

2Rh
2R2 + 2Rh

1+

For the fair coin we obtain

1+

1
3
1
2

Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Cross-Sectional Length

B. Blais

Probability proportional to the cross-sectional length

Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

pedge (h, R) =
pedge () =

h
2(2R) + h

4+

For the fair coin we obtain

1

=
3
4+
= 2

pedge () =

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Cross-Sectional Length

B. Blais

Probability proportional to the cross-sectional length

Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

pedge (h, R) =
pedge () =

h
2(2R) + h

4+

For the fair coin we obtain

1

=
3
4+
= 2

pedge () =

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Cross-Sectional Length

B. Blais

Probability proportional to the cross-sectional length

Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

pedge (h, R) =
pedge () =

h
2(2R) + h

4+

For the fair coin we obtain

1

=
3
4+
= 2

pedge () =

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Center of Mass
determines tip-over direction
atan (/2)

B. Blais
Introduction
Solutions

Previous Solutions

if 0 < < then the coin will

land on edge

Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions

if < < /2 then the coin

will land on the heads

pedge (h, R) =

pe
/2

For a fair coin we obtain

pedge (h, R) =
h/R =

=
= 60
3
/2
2
1.155
3

References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Center of Mass
determines tip-over direction
atan (/2)

B. Blais
Introduction
Solutions

Previous Solutions

if 0 < < then the coin will

land on edge

Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions

if < < /2 then the coin

will land on the heads

pedge (h, R) =

pe
/2

For a fair coin we obtain

pedge (h, R) =
h/R =

=
= 60
3
/2
2
1.155
3

References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Center of Mass
determines tip-over direction
atan (/2)

B. Blais
Introduction
Solutions

Previous Solutions

if 0 < < then the coin will

land on edge

Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions

if < < /2 then the coin

will land on the heads

pedge (h, R) =

pe
/2

For a fair coin we obtain

pedge (h, R) =
h/R =

=
= 60
3
/2
2
1.155
3

References

Solid Angle(Mosteller, 1987; Pegg, 1997)

Probability proportional to the solid angle occupied
by each side extended onto the unit sphere

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction
Solutions

Z
edge area subtended =

sin dd

d
0

/2

= 4 sin
pedge () = sin

= p
2
+4
For the fair coin we obtain
pedge () =
=

Previous Solutions

/2+

=p
2
3
+4
1

Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Solid Angle(Mosteller, 1987; Pegg, 1997)

Probability proportional to the solid angle occupied
by each side extended onto the unit sphere

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction
Solutions

Z
edge area subtended =

sin dd

d
0

/2

= 4 sin
pedge () = sin

= p
2
+4
For the fair coin we obtain
pedge () =
=

Previous Solutions

/2+

=p
2
3
+4
1

Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Dynamic Model(Murray and Teare, 1993)

Simulate dynamic model of coin in 1-D with bouncing
Free motion
1
1
E = Z(t) + V 2 (t) + k2 2 (t)
2
2
1 2
Z(t) = Zo + Vo t + t
2
V(t) = Vo t
(t) = o + t
Impact
V + x
(k2 + x2 )
V + x
= (1 + )x 2
(k + x2 )

V 0 = V (1 + )k2
0

Corner velocities U 0 = U

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Simple Bounce Model (Blais)

2

Center of Mass Energy

1.2

B. Blais

Introduction
Solutions

0.8

Previous Solutions

0.6

Proposed Solutions

R l

Comparisons

0.4

h/2

0.2
0

Conclusions

50

100

150

200

References
250

300

350

Angle

probability for an edge-inducive fall (COM):

pe = /2
coin energy after n bounces:
En = Eo n
number of bounces, given initial and final energy:


l h/2
n = log(En /Eo )/ log + 1 = log
/ log + 1
lR

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Simple Bounce Model (Blais)

2

Center of Mass Energy

1.2

B. Blais

Introduction
Solutions

0.8

Previous Solutions

0.6

Proposed Solutions

R l

Comparisons

0.4

h/2

0.2
0

Conclusions

50

100

150

200

References
250

300

350

Angle

probability for an edge-inducive fall (COM):

pe = /2
coin energy after n bounces:
En = Eo n
number of bounces, given initial and final energy:


l h/2
/ log + 1
n = log(En /Eo )/ log + 1 = log
lR

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Simple Bounce Model (Blais)

2

Center of Mass Energy

1.2

B. Blais

Introduction
Solutions

0.8

Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

0.6

R l

Comparisons

0.4

Conclusions

h/2

0.2
0

50

100

150

200

References

250

300

350

Angle

number of bounces

n = = log

l h/2
lR


/ log + 1

probability of finally landing on edge

pedge = pne

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Annealing Bounce Model (Blais)

2

Center of Mass Energy

1.2

B. Blais

Introduction
Solutions

0.8

Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

0.6

R l

Comparisons

0.4

h/2

0.2
0

Conclusions

50

100

150

200

References
250

300

350

Angle

Well of depth m and coin KE , escape probability

<0
p0

0
<
<m
F()
m

1
>m
Fe and Fh as the wells for edge and heads, with
depths me = l R and mh = l h/2

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Annealing Bounce Model (Blais)

2

Center of Mass Energy

1.2

B. Blais

Introduction
Solutions

0.8

Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

0.6

R l

Comparisons

0.4

Conclusions

h/2

0.2
0

50

100

150

200

References

250

300

350

Angle

Recursive equation
on edge, not escape

pedge (i) = pe (1 Fe (Ei )) +

pe Fe (Ei )pedge (i + 1) +
ph Fh (Ei )pedge (i + 1)

on edge, escape, on
edge next
on heads, escape, on
edge next

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Annealing Bounce Model (Blais)

2

Center of Mass Energy

1.2

B. Blais

Introduction
Solutions

0.8

Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

0.6

R l

Comparisons

0.4

Conclusions

h/2

0.2
0

50

100

150

200

References

250

300

350

Angle

Recursive equation
on edge, not escape

pedge (i) = pe (1 Fe (Ei )) +

pe Fe (Ei )pedge (i + 1) +
ph Fh (Ei )pedge (i + 1)

on edge, escape, on
edge next
on heads, escape, on
edge next

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Annealing Bounce Model (Blais)

2

Center of Mass Energy

1.2

B. Blais

Introduction
Solutions

0.8

Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

0.6

R l

Comparisons

0.4

Conclusions

h/2

0.2
0

50

100

150

200

References

250

300

350

Angle

Recursive equation
on edge, not escape

pedge (i) = pe (1 Fe (Ei )) +

pe Fe (Ei )pedge (i + 1) +
ph Fh (Ei )pedge (i + 1)

on edge, escape, on
edge next
on heads, escape, on
edge next

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Annealing Bounce Model (Blais)

2

Center of Mass Energy

1.2

B. Blais

Introduction
Solutions

0.8

Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

0.6

R l

Comparisons

0.4

Conclusions

h/2

0.2
0

50

100

150

200

References

250

300

350

Angle

Recursive equation
on edge, not escape

pedge (i) = pe (1 Fe (Ei )) +

pe Fe (Ei )pedge (i + 1) +
ph Fh (Ei )pedge (i + 1)

on edge, escape, on
edge next
on heads, escape, on
edge next

Outline

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction

Introduction

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons

Conclusions

Conclusions
References

Models

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Data

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction
Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Bayesian Model Comparison

B. Blais

Probability of the model given the data

Introduction

P(Mi |D, I) =

P(D|Mi , I)P(Mi |I)

P(D|I)

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions

Compare two models

P(Mi |D, I)
P(Mj |D, I)

References

P(D|Mi , I)P(Mi |I)

P(D|Mj , I)P(Mj |I)

If all of the models are a priori equally likely

log P(Mi |D, I) log P(Mj |D, I) = log P(D|Mi , I)
log P(D|Mj , I)

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Bayesian Model Comparison

B. Blais

Probability of the model given the data

Introduction

P(Mi |D, I) =

P(D|Mi , I)P(Mi |I)

P(D|I)

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions

Compare two models

P(Mi |D, I)
P(Mj |D, I)

References

P(D|Mi , I)P(Mi |I)

P(D|Mj , I)P(Mj |I)

If all of the models are a priori equally likely

log P(Mi |D, I) log P(Mj |D, I) = log P(D|Mi , I)
log P(D|Mj , I)

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Bayesian Model Comparison

B. Blais

Probability of the model given the data

Introduction

P(Mi |D, I) =

P(D|Mi , I)P(Mi |I)

P(D|I)

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions

Compare two models

P(Mi |D, I)
P(Mj |D, I)

References

P(D|Mi , I)P(Mi |I)

P(D|Mj , I)P(Mj |I)

If all of the models are a priori equally likely

log P(Mi |D, I) log P(Mj |D, I) = log P(D|Mi , I)
log P(D|Mj , I)

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin

Comparisons

B. Blais
Introduction
Solutions

Model
Area
Length
Center of Mass
Murray-Teare (fixed )
Simple Bounce (fixed )
Simple Bounce (marginalized )
Annealing (fixed )

Log Likelihood
-1229.1
-233.71
-397.64
-30.668
-69.730
-32.415
-31.906

Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Outline

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction

Introduction

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons

Conclusions

Conclusions
References

Bibliography

Determining the
Geometry of a
Three-sided Fair
Coin
B. Blais
Introduction

Mosteller, F. (1987).
Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability with
Solutions.
Dover Publications.

Solutions
Previous Solutions
Proposed Solutions

Comparisons
Conclusions
References

Murray, D. B. and Teare, S. W. (1993).

Probability of a tossed coin landing on edge.
Physical Review E, 48(4):25472552.
Pegg, E. (1997).
A Complete List of Fair Dice.
Masters Thesis.