Contact: Tom Swiss

(773) 485-9477
February 15, 2015

Emanuel Still Dominating Competition

Turnout will determine runoff or not
CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, a Chicago based polling company, is conducting weekly polls for the Mayor
of Chicago. Respondents are selected by random sampling to match Municipal Election turnout ratios
(see Methodology).

February 14, 2015 n= 736

Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls

362
169
106
63
36

49.2%
23.0%
14.4%
8.6%
4.9%

Margin of Error +/- 3.69% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS
Remarkably little has changed for the Mayoral candidates from week to week. Rahm Emanuel maintains
his better than 20% lead over Chuy Garcia. All the drama centers around whether Emanuel can get the
50%+1 and avoid a runoff. Turnout will make all the difference. This is going to be difficult to predict
because there will be high turnout in Wards with competitive Aldermanic races and little incentive for
voters in Wards without competitive or no competition Aldermanic races.

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

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PREVIOUS WEEKLY MAYORAL POLL RESULTS

WITH UNDECIDEDS

WITHOUT UNDECIDED OPTION

POLL 1 February 7, 2015

n= 969

POLL 2 February 8, 2015

n= 727

Rahm Emanuel

399

41.2%

Rahm Emanuel

373

51.3%

Jesus Chuy Garcia

182

18.8%

Jesus Chuy Garcia

185

25.4%

Willie Wilson

103

10.6%

Willie Wilson

94

12.9%

Robert Bob Fioretti

65

6.7%

Robert Bob Fioretti

54

7.4%

William Dock Walls

17

1.8%

William Dock Walls

21

2.9%

203

20.9%

Undecided

Margin of Error +/- 3.71%

Margin of Error +/- 3.21%

*Once early voting begins, undecided is removed as a poll option. The last two weekly Mayoral polls
will not have undecided as an option.

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

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February 7, 2015 n= 969

Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
Undecided

399
182
103
65
17
203

41.2%
18.8%
10.6%
6.7%
1.8%
20.9%

Margin of Error +/- 3.21% at 95% Confidence Interval

January 31, 2015 n= 884

Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
Undecided

369
147
86
59
15
208

41.7%
16.6%
9.7%
6.7%
1.7%
23.5%

Margin of Error +/- 3.36% at 95% Confidence Interval

January 24, 2015 n= 950

Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
Undecided

375
171
105
71
17
211

39.5%
18.0%
11.1%
7.5%
1.8%
22.2%

Margin of Error +/- 3.24% at 95% Confidence Interval

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

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January 17, 2015 n= 1,010

Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls

384
166
107
68
15

38.0%
16.4%
10.6%
6.7%
1.5%

Undecided

270

26.7%

Margin of Error +/- 3.15% at 95% Confidence Interval

EMANUEL VS. GARCIA

January 24, 2015 n= 725

Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia

398
327

54.9%
45.1%

Margin of Error +/- 3.71% at 95% Confidence Interval

METHODOLOGY
Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For a Municipal Election poll, 60% of
the sampled population voted in 3 of the last 3 elections, 30% voted in 2 of the last 3 elections, and 10%
voted in 1 of the last 3 elections. This 60/30/10 ratio reflects Municipal Election voting patterns

CROSSTABS January 17th Poll

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

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Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

468
542

46%
54%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
96
9.5%
Age 31 - 45
281
27.8%
Age 46 - 64
357
35.4%
Age 65 plus
275
27.3%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21

20
15
33
29
30
31
20
23
34
8
19
8
13
19
8
16
21
30
45
23
29

Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46

10
22
31
20
7
6
22
15
36
15
11
16
17
19
16
22
21
14
18
17
17

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

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Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25

10
15
18
14

Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50

30
34
24
19

CROSSTABS January 24th Poll

Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

444
506

47%
53%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
79
8.3%
Age 31 - 45
262
27.6%
Age 46 - 64
353
37.2%
Age 65 plus
255
26.9%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10

13
20
39
30
29
29
22
41
27
7

Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35

9
19
30
21
11
15
20
11
25
9

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

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Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25

11
12
13
8
10
9
17
18
30
16
26
6
15
18
6

Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50

6
22
13
17
22
18
19
26
17
22
29
27
35
18
16

CROSSTABS January 31st Poll

Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

423
461

47.9%
52.1%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 - 64
Age 65 plus

84
239
306
255

9.5%
27.0%
34.6%
28.8%

Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3

17
15
28

Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28

11
15
23

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

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Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25

27
21
25
28
22
20
8
11
8
21
5
1
24
12
14
32
15
29
11
12
26
8

Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50

18
9
6
19
20
23
5
11
19
22
30
16
22
17
19
24
13
18
28
20
26
10

CROSSTABS February 7th Poll

Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

451
518

46.5%
53.5%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64

91
270
357

9.4%
27.9%
36.8%

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

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Age 65 plus

251

25.9%

Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count

19
20
28
31
29
26
24
27
20
9
10
10
8
9
6
25
17
17
36
15
28
8
10
16
18

26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count

17
24
22
20
6
8
31
11
29
14
5
31
13
23
16
23
29
19
19
24
21
30
29
23
16

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

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CROSSTABS February 8th Poll

Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

315
412

43.3%
56.7%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64
Age 65 plus

81
196
239
210

11.2%
27.0%
32.9%
28.9%

Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count

13
7
19
26
25
22
16
20
16
5
15
3
18
7
7
13
18
19

26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count

8
22
16
18
8
4
16
9
24
11
6
15
13
15
12
18
12
17

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count

18
11
22
1
12
14
20

44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count

20
11
12
20
23
12
18

CROSSTABS February 14th Poll

Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

330
406

44.8%
55.2%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64
Age 65 plus

77
210
277
172

10.5%
28.5%
37.6%
23.4%

Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count

9
12
19
23
27
18
17
21
18
7

26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count

4
14
13
22
16
8
15
17
17
5

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count

15
6
21
8
1
11
13
19
25
15
21
6
12
13
12

36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count

8
19
9
26
14
12
13
18
10
14
14
28
23
20
8

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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