Risk and mitigation for O&M of PV plants in MENA

For PV - Insider

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

CONTENTS

I.

DNV GL SOLAR

II. RISKS MATRIX

III. OBSERVED TECHNICAL ISSUES ON REAL PROJECTS
IV. RISK MITIGATION: TECHNICAL DUE DILIGENCE

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

DNV GL Solar- Geographical Experience

Over 6,000 MW in Energy Assessment / Due Diligence completed worldwide

300+ offices
DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

100 countries

17,100 employees

CONTENTS

I.

DNV GL SOLAR

II. RISKS MATRIX

III. OBSERVED TECHNICAL ISSUES ON REAL PROJECTS
IV. RISK MITIGATION: TECHNICAL DUE DILIGENCE

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

Types of Risks for a Typical PV project

1. Technology
Technical Availability
Technical Lifetime
Power degradation (Performance Ratio)
2. Energy Resource
Variability of irradiation data
Quality of irradiation data
Simulation Model
Factor losses
3. Costs Forecast
CAPEX
Fixed OPEX
Variable OPEX
Maintenance Reserve Account (inverter replacement)
4. Market Risks
Price Fluctuations and securing equipment
Capability of the main players
Interest Rate
Contractual Risks

5. Time Schedule & Contractual Risks

Duration of Planning Phase
Start of construction
Construction Time
Start of Operation
6. Strong Weather Event
Lightning Strike
Extreme wind conditions
Extreme temperatures
Flood
Sand storm
Dune movement
7. Permitting issues
Land License/Lease agreement
Environmental Approval
Safety Regulations
8. Political Risks / other
Region Stability
Amendment
Regulatory framework

Assumptions:
The provided list is not complete;
There is still quite few track record in the solar industry for long term performance of utility scale plants (multi megawatt
systems operating for more than 20 years do basically not exists);
The performance / efficiency has increased since the beginning of large PV plants. However, regularly some new issues
are detected (PID, LID or snail trails as an example).

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

CONTENTS

I.

DNV GL SOLAR

II. RISKS MATRIX

III.OBSERVED TECHNICAL ISSUES ON REAL PROJECTS
IV. RISK MITIGATION: TECHNICAL DUE DILIGENCE

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

Categorisation of Issues

Design affecting O&M

Construction affecting O&M

Technology (inverters, modules) affecting O&M
Grid connection (not explained here)
Contractual conditions (not explained here)

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

Design affecting O&M

The design of a PV plant may influence the production, the costs, the
maintenance and even the safety. Here are some examples:
Grid requirements: depending on the local regulation, it can influence the inverter
sizing;
Drainage systems is a critical design issue Specially in ME where wadi can change
location and direction from one year to the next one
Structural strength of the mounting systems; maximum wind gust can be
surprisingly high in the dessert
Cable sizing: Under sizing the cables : loss of production. Over sizing: costs increased.
To calculate the right safety factor (temperature factors of 0.5 in some utilities)
Importance of Earth design, fuses and arresters to reduce risk of fire and to increase
safety.

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

Design affecting O&M - Cleaning

Soiling effect (desertic, industrial or urban areas). Soiling can be 3% annual loss
per year even with 1 weekly cleaning scheme. The selection of the right cleaning
mechanism is very important.

Percentage of eneryg loss

30

Energy Loss with diferent frequency of cleaning

25

no cleaning
One byweekly cleaning

20

One weekly cleaning

Two weekly cleaning

15

10

7.0%
5

3.0%
1.5%
0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Day of the month

Source: Estimation from Abu Dhabi

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

Construction affecting O&M

Even with a good design, the construction and maintenance can
itself lead to PV plant issues:
Electrical contacts (fire) In ME due to day-night difference of
temperature screws of contacts become loose
Vegetation control
Time schedule risks: finalisation of a project takes often more time than
expected. Some items are long leadtime due to ME specs.
Spare parts management
Drainage can be catastrophic in ME due to geological constrains, flooding
is really dangerous
Sand storms and sand dune movements (up to 1.5m per year). The
importance of fencing properly and keeping dunes away

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

Technology Issues related to O&M

PV Modules, Inverters, Connectors

The modules track records shows many types of issues:

Electrical contacts: Hotspots. Junction box fire.
High Degradation: root cause may be; bad connection of the
inverters(thin film) , PID, wrong production batch (process or material)
Delaminating, bubbles in back sheets
UV exposure and EVA yellowing / Cells browning
Burned by pass diode
Electronic cards to replace, IGBT failure
Software to update, Master slave management
Over heating
Connections not tightened
Outdoor inverters with proper IP protection and right cooling

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

CONTENTS

I.

DNV GL SOLAR

II. RISKS MATRIX

III. OBSERVED TECHNICAL ISSUES ON REAL PROJECTS
IV. RISK MITIGATION: TECHNICAL DUE DILIGENCE

12

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

Risks mitigation
The best way to mitigate the technical risk is to deeply analyse all the
conditions through an independent Technical Due Diligence (internal
and/or external). The following should be considered (amongst others):
Minimising the energy risk with measurements on site correlated with
satellite data or a close by reliable ground station
Review of the electrical design, configuration and layouts
Review of the PV module and inverter manufacturer track record,
certificates and experience in the industry. Sometimes bankability reports
may help reducing risks.
Contractual and permitting review
Construction monitoring as well as provisional and final acceptance
testing to complete the low level of tests done for modules to get the IEC
certificates.

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

Typical scope of a Technical Due Diligence

The Technical Due Diligence is complementary of the Insurance, financial

and legal Due Diligence. An example of typical scope is provided hereafter.
The actual scope depends on the Lenders request and specificity of the
project:

High level technology review (Inverter, modules, trackers...)

Review of project design and layout
Review of civil works and structures
Review of EPC and O&M contracts and contractors
Review of project time schedule
Review of technical inputs to the financial model
Permitting review
Equator principles review

Construction monitoring (and drawdown certification)

Acceptances (provisional, interim, final) certification

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014

THANK YOU

Ignacio Martinez
Ignacio.martinez@dnvgl.com
+971 501425459

www.dnvgl.com

SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

15

DNV GL 2013

27 February 2014