1 2009 Shines

2 A SunWiz Report on the 2009 Australian Solar Power Industry

3 The foundation of this report is an analysis of the PV RECs created per system per state, as recorded
4 in the REC-registry, and as supplemented by the statistics released by the Solar Homes and
5 Communities Plan. The number of RECs in each system was pigeon-holed into various categories
6 representing 1 kW,1.5 kW,2 kW, 3 kW, 4 kW, 5 kW, and above in both Zone 3 and Zone 4.

7 This information is intended to provide a snapshot of market trends, which may assist readers with
8 targeting marketing and promotion.

9 About SunWiz:
10 SunWiz is a solar energy consultancy that provides services to the Australian solar energy industry
11 and to local, state, and federal governments. SunWiz's mission is to support the sustainable
12 development of the Australian solar power industry.

13 SunWiz offers the following services:

14 Market analysis
15 Solar financial analysis
16 Site-specific analysis of Net Feed-in Tariff revenue
17 Assistance with tender design, response, and evaluation
18 Detailed system design
19 Project management
20 Feasibility studies
21 System performance monitoring and reporting
22 Training
23 Sales and marketing advice and material
24 Website guidance

25 For more information or to download free reports, visit www.sunwiz.com.au or contact Warwick
26 Johnston on 0413361534 or email warwick@sunwiz.com.au.

27 SunWiz is a member of the PV directorate, Clean Energy Council, Australian Photovoltaic

28 Association, Sustainable Energy Industries Association, and the Australian Solar Energy Society.

Innovation, Expertise, Independence

1 2009: Biggest Solar Year
2 As shown in Figure 1, 2009 was the biggest year in Australian solar power history, completely
3 eclipsing the admirable figures from the year before with 366% growth.

4
5 Figure 1: Solar Grid-Connect Installations (kW/year)1

6 Across the nation, we installed up to 7 MW/month of solar power (see Figure 2). About 39 MW has
7 been installed since closure of Solar Homes and Communities Program (SHCP) rebate applications.

8
2
9 Figure 2: Grid Connect Installations per month, 2009

1
Source: SHCP statistics
2
Source: SHCP statistics

2
1 According to total number of REC creation, Queensland truly is the sunshine state, installing 30% of
2 Australian PV systems in 2009, followed by NSW, SA, and VIC (see Figure 3).

% of Total Systems Installed 2009

Tas ACT
2% 1%

WA
QLD
19%
30%

SA
15%

VIC NSW
11% 22%

3
4 Figure 3: Percentage of Total Systems installed by State

5 Perhaps not surprisingly, 1kW SHCP systems dominated 2009’s installations, accounting for 72% of
6 the nation’s installed grid-connect systems. Figure 4 shows the proportion of installations that were
7 1 kW SHCP system in each state. This indicates that some states (eg SA, ACT) were more creative at
8 selling larger systems under the rebate, or successful in selling under solar credits.

9
10 Figure 4: Percentage of Systems that are 1 kW SHCP

11

3
1 Fortunately, Solar Credits are keeping the industry ticking over. About 4,600 systems were installed
2 under Solar Credits in 3 months of 2009, compared with 48,000 under SHCP 3. Though this indicates
3 that sales volumes have dropped since the end of the rebate, these are still significant numbers.

4 Within that context, some states are doing better off solar credits than others (see Figure 5), most
5 notably those for which a Feed-in Tariff existed in 2009, with success seemingly related to the size of
6 the Feed-in Tariff rather than whether it was gross or net.

7
8 Figure 5: Percentage of 2009 Installations Receiving Solar Credits

9 Unfortunately, larger systems are falling out of favour under solar credits. Although a larger system
10 results in quicker payback under a net FiT, systems 2 kW and above are becoming less significant
11 under Solar Credits, as seen in Figure 6. Against this stands Victoria, which has increased its number
12 of 2-4 kW systems under solar credits. The trend towards proportionally fewer sales of 2-4 kW
13 systems may be due to the increased costs borne by the customer.

14 Figure 6: Proportion of Systems 2-4kW in size

15
3
For those interested, that’s 621,000 Phantom Credits, or 7.6% of 2009’s target of 8,100,000 - a huge amount
considering that PV made up only 4.3% of 2008’s generation.

4
1 In weighted average terms, system size has increased slightly under Solar Credits (see Figure 8).

2
3 Figure 7: Weighted Average System Size

4 Figure 9 shows that 1.5 kW systems are dominating in most states. Interestingly, 3 kW is becoming
5 the norm in the ACT, and 2 kW is common in Victoria.

6
7 Figure 8: Size Breakdown of Solar Credit Systems

8 To summarise these graphs in simple terms, far fewer 1 kW systems are being sold, far more 1.5 kW
9 systems are being sold, but fewer 2-4 kW system are being sold – the market is converging towards
10 1.5 kW systems. Happily, there were a few large system installations in 2009, as seen in Figure 10.

5
1
2 Figure 9: Largest System Under 100 kW by state