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Minister of Public Security to become party leader), Le Thanh Hai (connections with
a prominent scandal) and Nguyen Sinh Hung. Hung’s case is interesting. In the past,
the future prime minister was always been the first deputy prime minister. If Nguyen
Tan Dung became party Secretary General or was rolled as prime minister, Hung as
first deputy prime minister likely would be promoted. But if Nguyen Tan Dung says
on as prime minister, Hung is likely to remain first deputy and would be replaced at
some point in order to groom a new prime minister in five year’s time.
Pham Gia Khiem is over the age limit. I think Khiem can be discounted on the
assumption he does not carry weight in the party bureaucracy. To Huy Rua has not
served a full five year term on the Politburo.
In my earlier analysis I identified five likely candidates for the next party Secretary
General: Truong Tan Sang and Nguyen Phu Trong (as front runners), and Ho Duc Viet,
Pham Quang Nghi, and Nguyen Van Chi. Both Trong and Chi are over the age
requirement. But I haven’t ruled them out because of persistent rumours that they
are still players. I have also ruled out the Minister of National Defence, Phung Quang
Thanh. There is apparently opposition in the party to a military man taking the helm
as party Secretary General or a new post of combined party leader and state
president.
That reduces the list to four persons: Nguyen Tan Dung, Truong Tan Sang, Ho Duc
Viet, and Pham Quang Nghi. Dung would have to relinquish his post as prime
minister but is reported interested in the combined post of party secretary general
and state president. Vietnamese insiders say that Truong Tan Sang has signaled his
ambition for the top party spot. Nghi has a base in the Hanoi party apparatus, while
Viet controls the party’s organisation commission.
Year of Birth of Members of the Vietnam Communist Party Politburo
Name Year of Birth Year on Politburo
Le Thanh Hai 1950 2006
Nguyen Tan Dung 1949 1996
Truong Tan Sang 1949 1996
Le Hong Anh 1949 2001
Phung Quang Thanh 1949 2006
Pham Quang Nghi 1949 2006
Ho Duc Viet 1947 2006
To Huy Rua 1947 2009
Nguyen Sinh Hung 1946 2006
Nguyen Van Chi 1945 2006
Nguyen Phu Trong 1944 1997
Pham Gia Khiem 1944 2006
Nguyen Minh Triet 1942 1997
Truong Vinh Trong 1942 2006
Nong Duc Manh 1940 1991
The age limit is flexible. Nguyen Phu Trong would be over the limit but there are
strong indications that he is a contender. The most recent issue of the party journal,
Tap Chi Cong San, for example, carried six articles by Politburo members three of
whom are likely contenders as party leader. Nguyen Phu Trong’s article was in the
first section immediately after Nong Duc Mang. A line clearly separated their entries
3
from those of the others. Truong Tan Sang and Nguyen Van Chi were listed in the
second section, while Le Hong Anh and Le Thanh Hai appeared in the third (see
annex). This is slight evidence but I mainly base my assessment on comments made
by Vietnamese about likely candidates.
There is one instance in the past (1980s) when retiring members of the Politburo
were elected to the new Central Committee. This practice has been abandoned.
Years later (1990s) a three‐person Advisory Group to the Central Committee was
created but it was abolished in 2001. The Advisors were not Central Committee
members however.
The way the leadership is selected we won’t have any warning time. On the last day
of the congress the newly elected Central Committee will hold its first plenary
meeting and elect the Politburo and Secretary General. All names are released
together.
A new development this time is that elections will be held for the National Assembly
in the same year as the party congress, not a year later as has been the case. This
means that if an incumbent minister in not on the new Central Committee list
he/she will not stand for election as deputy to the National Assembly and will step
down from the Cabinet (Government) once the elections are held.
[name deleted]:
What's the age limit for election/re‐election of Central Committee members who
aren't in the Politiburo?
I wonder if the list of Central Committee candidates will be floating around before
the election. That may give us some clues ‐‐ at least a few hours before the new
leadership is revealed.
ANSWER: My understanding is that a prospective candidate must be under 65 years
of age in order to be elected for the first time. The Vietnamese normally determine
age by adding one year at birth, whereas our convention is to date a person as one
year old on the first anniversary of birth. I am told the latter is used for the Central
Committee.
Virtually everyone who is anyone is sequestered in party meetings at the time of a
national congress. Vietnam also restricts visas for foreigners. Advance copies of a list
of Central Committee nominees have circulated in the past but are exceedingly hard
to come by. Journalists with good contacts are able to pick up rumors and more solid
bits and pieces. The Vietnamese press was much more revealing at the last congress
than at any time previously. But even among scholars today there is disagreement
about the procedure used to determine the secretary general at the last congress. I
favour the view that delegates were permitted to take a straw poll and this was
given to new Central Committee members prior to voting.
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