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2 Actuarial notation
3 Force of mortality
4 Expectation of life
5 Life tables
9 Select tables
10
Introduction
Lifetime: time to the occurrence of a certain event, e.g.
Lifetime in the context of human mortality (time to death)
the length of the time that a surviving individual will hold an insurance policy (time to withdrawal)
the length to time an individual remains healthy (time to the occurrence of sickness)
Survival models are models that (hopefully) describe the probability distribution of such lifetimes. We review here the related
main concepts and their notations.
dF (t)
dt .
dFx (t)
dt .
S(x) S(x + t)
S(x)
S(x + t)
Sx (t) = Pr[Tx > t] = Pr[T > x + t|T > x] =
S(x)
Remember:
Pr[A B] = Pr[A] Pr[B|A]
Pr[B|A] =
Pr[A, B]
Pr[A]
Actuarial notation
Actuarial notation
Probability of death
Z
t qx = Pr[Tx t] = Fx (t) =
fx (s)ds
0
Probability of survival
t px
Deferred probability
n|m qx
Customary notation: qx = 1 qx , px = 1 px ,
|m qx
= 1|m qx
Note:
s+t px
t px
Exercises
Assume a survival function S(x) = 1
= (t px )( s px+t )
= px px+1 px+t1
x
120 .
1. Find:
(a) p50
(b) 2 p50
(c)
10 q75
d
2. Show that fx (t) = dt
t px .
Force of mortality
Force of mortality
The force of mortality at age x (0 x < )
dF (x)
x = lim+
h0
1
Pr[T x + h|T > x] = dx
h
S(x)
is an instantaneous measure of mortality at age x. It is known as hazard rate in statistics. Looking forward,
x+t
=
=
1
Pr[T x + t + h|T > x + t]
h
1
lim
Pr[Tx t + h|Tx > t].
+
h0 h
lim
h0+
t dt = log S(x),
H(x) =
0
so that
Z
S(x) = exp
t dt
and
t px
Z
= exp
x+t
s ds .
Examples
Suppose x = 0.02 for 3 x 10.
1. Calculate the probability that a life aged exactly 5 will die before age 10.
2. Calculate the probability that a life aged exactly 3 will die between the ages of 8 and 10.
3
An important result:
fx (t) = t px x+t
Proof:
fx (t)
=
=
=
=
=
d
Pr[Tx t]
dt
lim
1
(Pr[Tx t + h] Pr[Tx t])
h
lim
1
(Pr[T x + t + h|T > x] Pr[T x + t|T > x])
h
h0+
h0+
lim
Pr[T x+t+h]Pr[T x]
S(x)
lim
Pr[T x+t]Pr[T x]
S(x)
h0+
h0+
Pr[T x + t + h] Pr[T x + t]
S(x)h
S(x + t)
1 Pr[T x + t + h] Pr[T x + t]
lim+
S(x)
h
S(x + t)
h0
= Sx (t)x+t
=
t px x+t
Expectation of life
ex
E[Tx ]
Z
tfx (t)dt
0
t px )dt
t
Z x
x
= [tt px ]t=0 +
t px dt
=
t(
Z
=
x
t px dt
ex
E[Kx ] =
k k px qx+k
k=0
1 px qx+1
2 px qx+2
+ 2 px qx+2
3 px qx+3
+ 3 px qx+3
+ 3 px qx+3
+
+
[x] px qx+[x]
[x] [x]
[x] [x]
X X
X X
k=1
j px qx+j
j=k
k=1
j=k
[x]
j| qx
k px ,
k=1
[x]
j| qx
j=k
Pr(j Tx < j + 1)
j=k
[x]
Pr(k Tx )
k px .
Exercises
1. Show ex = px (1 + ex+1 )
Life tables
n px
lx+n
lx
n dx
n qx
x =
n dx
lx
d
S(x)
dx
S(x)
d
dx
lx
lx
Numerical examples
x
lx
qx
60 86714 0.01392
61 85507 0.01560
62 84173 0.01749
63 82701 0.01965
64 81076 0.02199
ex
17.850
17.095
16.357
15.640
14.943
=
=
=
=
so that
n| qx
= n|1 qx = n px qx+n
and
n| qx
dx+n
lx
Numerical Example
5|5 q60 .
dx
.
lx
=
=
=
dx
R x+1
lz dz
x
qx
,
R1
p dt
0 t x
P r[Tx 1]
R1
p dt
0 t x
R1
p dt
0 t x x+t
R1
p dt
0 t x
Discussion
Discuss the relationship between the central and initial rates of mortality: which one is greater?
lx+s
lx ),
The determination of functions for non-integral ages requires that values of lx+s be available for all s, 0 s 1 and
integral x.
To this end, we will assume that lx+s (0 s 1, x is any integer) has one of the following mathematical form:
Linear form for lx+s (Uniform distribution of deaths)
Exponential form for lx+s (Constant force of mortality)
Hyperbolic form for lx+s (Balducci assumption/distribution)
We also assume that lx+s is differentiable on the open interval 0 < s < 1, which allows us to evaluate x+s and hence
the conditional density function f (s|X > x) = s px x+s .
Uniform distribution of deaths (UDD) (linear form for lx+s )
We have
lx+s
= lx s dx = s lx+1 + (1 s) lx
(linear interpolation)
lx+s
lx s d x
=
= 1 s qx
=
s px
lx
lx
f (s|X > x) = qx
s qx
ex
t px+s
1 s px = s qx
1
= ex +
2
=
lx (s + t) dx
lx+s+t
=
for 0 s, t 1 and s + t 1
lx+s
lx s dx
Example
Assume a UDD. Given that p62 = 0.99219, 2 p63 = 0.98171, and p65 = 0.98926, calculate 3.5 p62.3 .
We have
q62 = 1 p62 = 0.00781 q65 = 1 p65 = 0.01074
1 q62
= 0.99452
0.7 p62.3 =
1 0.3q62
1 0.8q65
= 0.99141
0.8 p65 =
1 0q65
3.5 p62.3
x+s
s px
esx
ts px+s
e(ts)x
1
lx+s
= (1 s)
1
lx
+s
1
lx+1
0.2|0.4 qx
1s qx+s
= (1 s)qx , 0 s 1
if qx = 0.4.
1
0.2|0.4 qx
=
=
=
=
=
lx+0.2 lx+0.6
=
lx
lx lx+1
0.8lx+1 +0.2lx
10.2
0.2
lx + lx+1
1
10.6
0.6
lx + lx+1
lx
lx lx+1
0.4lx+1 +0.6lx
lx
lx+1 /lx
lx+1 /lx
Comparisons
The idea of UDD is to join lx and lx+1 linearly. What happens with the other assumptions?
The idea of a constant force of mortality is self-explanatory. What happens with the other assumptions?
5000
6000
7000
l_{x+s}
8000
9000
10000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0<s<1
qx
,
1 sqx
0<s<1
qx
,
1 (1 s)qx
10
0<s<1
0.3
0.4
0.5
mu_{x+s}
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Select tables
l[x]
9907
9903
9899
l[x]+1
9905
9901
9896
lx+2
9901
9897
9893
x+2
32
33
34
Examples
Express the following conditional probabilities in terms of ls, assuming a 4-year select period.
1.
2|4 q[20]+1
11
2.
2|4 q[22]+3
You are given the following extract from a 2-year select-and-ultimate mortality table:
[x]
30
31
32
2 p[30]
1| q[31]
2 q[31]+1
l[x]
9907
9903
9899
l[x]+1
9905
9901
9896
lx+2
9901
9897
9893
x+2
32
33
34
l[30]+2
l32
9901
=
=
= 0.9994
l[30]
l[30]
9907
l[31]+1 l33
l[31]+1 l[31]+2
9901 9897
=
=
= 0.0004
l[31]
l[31]
9903
l[31]+1 l[31]+3
l[31]+1 l34
9901 9893
=
=
= 0.0008
l[31]+1
l[31]+1
9901
12