DISSECTING JOSE BAUTISTAS WEAK SEASON

Following the Jays return to the postseason last year, Jose Bautista was
expected to be a key contributor to their hopeful return. When reports surfaced that
he wanted 5Y/150M contract extension during spring training, it was fairly
unsurprising that that extension never came to fruition. Despite this some still felt
that someone could give him that contract if he had a strong season this year. He
hasnt, and this has hurt Bautista come free agency and the Jays chances of
winning the AL East. But what could explain these struggles?
One important thing to consider is Bautistas significant drop in power. He
recorded between 17.6% and 22.5% home runs per fly ball between 2010 and
2015. In 2016, this number has dropped to 14.8%. Although this could be chalked
up to bad luck, Bautistas fly ball rate has decreased by 7.3% from last season. So
he is hitting less fly balls and even less for home runs. In addition to that is ISO
has decreased. After recording ISOs between .239 and .375 between 2010 and
2015, he has managed an ISO of just .205. All of this put together contributes to a
significant power drop. But what explains his drop in batting average?
Bautistas batting average was a steady and unremarkable figure between
2010 and 2015. It ranged from .241 to .302 during this time. So his .228 batting
average this season represents an issue for both Bautista and the Jays. The reason
for this reduction is actually complicated. His LD% has actually increased by
5.8% this season over last, a puzzling figure when you see his real batting average.
Also, his hard contact rate is 2.6% higher than his previous career high. All of this
says that Bautistas batting average should be higher; but it isnt. One reason for
this is his .250 BABIP, although this is also an increase from the .237 he recorded
last season. The reason may partially come down to Bautistas strikeouts which
have increased by a rate of 3.7% from last season and although this number does
not explain the significance of the dip when combined with the batted ball data.
Jose Bautista has cost himself an awful lot of money this season, but he
should be much better than he has been. Though the reduction in power numbers
are concerning, his batted ball data and strong track record should raise his stock
enough that he still gets a reasonably expensive contract this offseason. Although it

may look like Bautista is beginning a serious decline, it may be worthwhile for a
team in need of a DH, to give him a long look this offseason.