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Here is an endeavour to bring you in one folder all banking related unedited
news/columns/articles/opinions/analysis etc appearing in major business dailies
The compiler assumes no responsibility for the authenticity and reliability of the
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upon any news articles and views appearing herein.
There are rumours that branches are hoarding cash but it is far from
the truth as cash received by banks is being passed on to the
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However, despite this, most ATMs still continue to run dry or the
queues outside the functioning ATMs still run long. Most of the
ATMs have been recalibrated but we dont have adequate money to
put in it. In fact, some banks have said to not put more than Rs.5
lakh or so in an ATM, so that they can target more areas. As aresult,
the machines are still running at 10-20 per cent of their capacity,
said V Balasubramanian, president transaction processing & ATM
services, FSS. It manages about 40,000 ATMs across the country.
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Retaining public support is also crucial for Modi before key state
elections next year and a national contest in 2019.
"We are bracing ourselves for payday and fearing the worst," said
Parthasarathi Mukherjee, chief executive officer at Chennai-based
Laxmi Vilas Bank Ltd. "If we run out of cash we will have to
approach the Reserve Bank of India for more. It is tough."
Half as Much
The shortages follow Modi's Nov. 8 move to ban 500 rupee and
1,000 rupee ($15) notes, a decision that blindsided the nation and
sucked out 86 percent of currency in circulation. Most top banks in
the financial heart of Mumbai are now starting the day with
anywhere between 800 million rupees to 1.2 billion rupees of cash
-- instead of the typical 1.5 billion rupees, according to bank
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These currency chests are then shared with several branches, which
are rationing supplies. Withdrawals are capped at 10,000 rupees per
person instead of the 24,000 rupees limit set by the government,
said a manager at a state-run Bank of India branch in the eastern
state of Jharkhand.
Other Options
"With pay day around the corner a lot of small and medium-sized
companies are opting for prepaid cards over cash payments," said
Naveen Surya, managing director of payments solutions company
Itz Cash Card Ltd., who's also chairman of the representative body
Payments Council of India. "More than five million of these cards
have been sold in India in the last one week" and sales of 40 million
more are expected through December, he said.
"I will request all our companies to encourage bank transfers for all
such payments," Pradhan said.
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The situation will not change much from our side even if it is salary
day because there is not enough cash in bank branches or ATMs,
said an official at a large private sector bank. The situation will
only improve once Rs 500 notes come into circulation and it will
take days before that happens.
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Supplies to ATMs have been falling short, said several people with
knowledge of the matter. We are only getting around 20% of the
daily cash that is required by us in order to get the entire ATM
network of the country up and running in a normal manner, said
one insider.
Although under supervision from the ATM task force more than 1.5
lakh ATMs have already been tweaked for the new series notes, they
are running dry due to lack of adequate supply of cash from the
Reserve Bank of India.
Before the withdrawal of the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, ATMs used
to be filled with about Rs 50 lakh of currency. Thats dropped to Rs 5
lakh at a time because of the shortfall in supply.
A former RBI official said the central bank had stepped up printing
and distribution of currency.
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Unpredictable Demand:
However, there are many things which are not under our control
like if people decide to withdraw their full weekly limit on one day or
how much RBI gives us. Then there are other normal cash demands
from our current account customers which we cannot ignore. We are
hoping we can meet the demand.
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The RBI links smaller banks to currency chests of one of the banks
as per requirement. Some of the banks are linked to our currency
chests while remaining are linked with other chests so it depends
upon the linkage.
New Delhi, November 30: With an aim to successfully see off the
litmus test of meeting the month-end demand of lakhs of salaried
employees and pensioners, the Narendra Modi is taking all-possible
measures. Though Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has ruled out any
impact of demonetisation over payment of salaries to either
government or private sector employees, the centre is likely to
disburse 20-30 per cent more cash to banks. The central
government will also inject more manpower to banks for pay day,
according to cnn news18 report. There will be special camps for
opening new accounts. The government may push more cash to
banks for pension accounts, the report said. RBI is also gearing up
to mitigate the challenges likely to be faced due to this rush.
Government sources told CNBC-TV18 RBI Aware Of Pay Day
Challenges and the central bank has also assured Union Finance
Minister Arun Jaitley that adequate arrangements are made for Pay
Day.
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Apart from it, the Indian Banks Association (IBA) has issued an
advisory to banks for maintaining adequate cash in view of the rush
at the beginning of the month and maintain normalcy, says a Hindu
report. However, bankers said the supply of cash was much lower
than the demand. Since Rs 500 and Rs 100 denomination notes are
only being printed now, so the branches and automated teller
machines are running out of cash frequently, chief executive of a
public sector bank told The Hindu. Printing presses have stopped
printing Rs 2000 notes for the time being, several bankers pointed
out.
Also, to beat the imminent cash crunch, banks are setting internal
daily cash withdrawal limits per account, while the government has
asked private companies to make payments to employees digitally.
According to an Indian Express report, banks have suggested to
large companies that they should give prepaid payment cards to
their employees in lieu of cash, industry sources said. We are
making arrangements so that there arent any problems in the days
to come. There should not be any inconvenience to the salaried
class, pensioners or any section of society. We have made
arrangements, and will be able to say whether these are adequate
or not only on the day when money comes into the accounts of
pensioners and salaried people. Were hopeful that there wont be
any problems, a top official of the Bank of Maharashtra told Indian
Express.
The RBI has also doubled the limit on balance that can be kept in
prepaid wallets and cards to Rs 20,000 till December 30 to ease the
situation
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The Hindu
Published on December 1, 2016
Chennai, December 1: It will take three more months for the State
to recover from the wounds caused by demonetisation. There is
acute shortage of Rs. 100 notes, Rs. 500 notes are not available,
and Rs. 2,000 notes cannot be exchanged. It will take minimum
three months for the dust to settle down, D. Thomas Franco
Rajendra Dev, senior vice-president of All India Bank Officers
Confederation, told The Hindu.
From day one, new generation private banks were given more
currency by the Reserve Bank of India. Even the State Bank of India
(SBI), which maintains the largest currency chest, has been asked
to collect cash from ICICI Bank in Chennai and HDFC Bank in
Coimbatore. According to Mr. Franco, three private banks were
given Rs. 6,100 crore while the remaining banks were given Rs.
7,800 crore. As of March 2016, Tamil Nadu has 9,971 bank branches
including foreign banks and regional rural banks.
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First, in the current context, banks do not know how long these new
deposits will stay on their books. So they can deploy these only in
short-term assets. Second, the burgeoning NPAs of the banking
system have significantly eroded their capital base and hence their
ability to lend. In June, gross NPAs (GNPAs) of listed banks were
Rs6.7 trillion or 9.1% of their advances. The 27 public sector banks
(PSBs) account for 80% of these NPAs. In 15 of them, GNPAs as a
percentage of advances are more than or close to the capital to risk
weighted assets ratio (CRAR). Except for the State Bank of India
and a few other PSBs, the CRAR headroom required to make new
loans does not exist.
Given both these factors, banks will face constraints in using the
new deposits to make new loans. There is also a question of demand
for new loans. Corporate credit demand has been slow. The currency
ban has imposed a big negative shock on consumption demand,
which in turn may lead to businesses cutting back on their working
capital requirement, at least in the next few quarters. This in turn
will affect the demand for working capital loans.
If banks cannot make loans on these deposits, then they can either
park them with RBI as reserves or invest them in government
securities (G-secs). Banks would not prefer to park these deposits
as reserves with the RBI beyond the cash reserve ratio (CRR) limit,
because these reserves do not earn them any interest. They would
prefer to invest the deposits in G-secs through the reverse-repo
window. G-secs being sovereign bonds do not pose any capital
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This does not augur well for banks. Their ability to make loans from
the new deposits and earn income is already limited, for reasons
discussed earlier. With the 100% incremental CRR requirement, the
possibility of banks earning risk-free returns by investing the
incremental deposits in G-secs is also removed now. Theoretically,
one option with the banks is to lower the deposit rates. However,
even after interest rates were deregulated, banks have not reduced
deposit rates below the level of 4% that prevailed in the regulated
regime. Lowering deposit rates below 4% may cause a public uproar
and it is unlikely that banks will take this step. Given this, banks will
have to service the cost of these fresh deposits without earning
commensurate income on them. This will negatively have an impact
on their NIIs and their profits, at least for the next two quarters,
which in turn will cause further deterioration in their capital
position.
Overall, the move to ban the Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes does not
appear to be a positive one for the banking sector. They may not be
in a position to significantly increase lending and their capital base
may get worse. If economic activity slows down in the aftermath of
the currency ban and corporate performance deteriorates, there
may even be a spike in their NPAs, at least in the short term. In
addition to this, bank branches all over the country have been
struggling to deal with the massive transaction load that this move
has placed on them. The normal banking business has been
disrupted and bank employees have been occupied in dealing with
exchange, deposits and withdrawals of currency. Yet the task is far
from over and it is likely to keep them fully occupied till 30
December. At a time when the banking sector has been struggling to
recover its bad loans and to find adequate capital to deal with
provisioning challenges, this sudden shock may worsen the situation
even further.
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Barkha Dutt
The NDTV Online
Published on November 30, 2016
Making the case that only a very small percent of black money is
held in cash "about six percent and certainly less than ten percent,"
Dr Sen said that demonetisation is "small fry in terms of
achievement but a big disruptor to the Indian economy."
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Like other critics of the PM's initiative, he said he backs the intent
but faults the execution of the reform, "We all want something to be
done about black money. But surely, it also has to be intelligent and
humane. That has not happened."
With new bills in short supply, banks run dry early in the morning.
ATMs are still being reconfigured to be able to stock the new notes
which are of a larger size. Rural India, cut off from formal banking,
is especially short-changed, though many say they support the PM's
new scheme.
Dr Sen who has been a trenchant critic of Narendra Modi (his most
recent run-in with the government has been over its removal of
board members like him from the prestigious Nalanda University in
Bihar), rubbished the suggestion that his ideological disagreements
with the Prime Minister are guiding his criticism of demonetisation.
"I would never criticise Modi for wanting to get rid of black money.
If he did it successfully, I would be full of admiration and applause.
My worry is that with this move, the lives of law-abiding citizens and
white money-holding people will be that much harder. My
differences with Modi are over our view of India... and I would like
to say the BJP does not have license based on 31 percent of the vote
to declare some people anti national just because they happen to
disagree with the government."
Dr Sen was honoured with the Bharat Ratna during the NDA tenure
of Atal Bihari Vajapyee.
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Saksham Khosla
The Hindustan Times
Published on December 1, 2016
The numbers paint a stark portrait. As of last week, there were 256
million no-frills Jan Dhan accounts, roughly one for every
household, under the Pradhan Mantri Jan-Dhan Yojana (PMJDY).
The scheme also promised to provide every new account holder with
RuPay debit cards, with 195 million cards being issued so far. While
the finance ministry must be given due credit, the Modi
administration appears to have conflated outputs with outcomes.
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Demonetisation: Implementation is
highly anti-poor, says Dr K C Chakrabarty
Sucheta Dalal
The MoneyLife Online
Published on November 30, 2016
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I have dealt with these situations before. It is all very well to say
that the army or the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) will
provide security, but the fights begin over who will pay the charges
for it. There is bureaucracy and red tape everywhere.
If we expect people to bear the pain and suffer for some time, then
we should also know how much I am suffering vis--vis other
people.
ML: Will you explain the currency situation today, based on your
knowledge as a Bank Chairman, Central Banker and a statistician:
We believe that the government has put on hold printing of Rs2,000
notes and has asked RBI presses to print Rs500. How long before
these flow into the market and when can we see some mitigation of
the situation?
KCC: If they work very efficiently, it will take at least five to six
months time before the situation stabilizes and they are able to
supply all denomination notes. We need to print more Rs500 notes
and Rs100 notes and distribute them swiftly. When anything is in
short supply, even currency, there will be hoarding.
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ML: How can the printing process be hastened? There are some
estimates about the presses working in two shifts and there is talk
about whether they can work in three-shifts. What is your view?
KCC: I believe that the banking system will not be able to deliver so
you need a master plan to deliver currency first to various hubs
and then to the last mile. You need to have a franchisee model
where people pay for the cash. In rural areas, people have to travel
10 to 20kms to get cash, so they incur expenses already.
It is a myth that you do not want to burden the poor- the reality is
that they pay more for everything even today, if nothing else in
terms of time and productive work hours lost. We are used to giving
lip sympathy to the poor. So the poor will not mind a charge if the
system works and they get their money without hardship you can
always reimburse them by way of a direct refund into the accounts
of the really needy.
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ML: We are still not clear if this franchisee idea will be accepted.
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ML: You have been a big proponent of empowering those who do not
have bank accounts. A large number of no-frills accounts were
opened during your tenure as deputy governor. Will demonetisation
and the desperation for cash change things? What are your
thoughts on digital transactions?
KCC: You have to bring down the banking transaction costs. The fact
is that banking transaction costs are so high that people are afraid
of going to the bank. This is true across the globe. Even in the US,
20% to 25% of the people do not use bank accounts because cost of
banking transactions is very high.
ML: Would you have any specific thoughts on how to tackle black
money?
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Jason Overdorf
The Newsweek (International Edition)
Published on November 29, 2016
Before the move, Modi had made little progress in fulfilling his
campaign promise to bring back billions in untaxed black money
stashed abroad so he could deposit it in the bank accounts of Indias
poor. Washington, D.C.based corruption watchdog Global Financial
Integrity recently estimated that an average of $50 billion a year in
illicit funds flowed out of India from 2004 to 2013, while
bureaucrats, politicians and business tycoons amassed huge
fortunes from influence peddling, backroom deals and outright
graft.
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The idea behind the recall was simple. Overnight, India announced
that anyone holding 500 and 1,000-rupee notes had to exchange
them for new bills before December 31. After that date, the old
money will become worthless. The catch: The government is
allowing people to swap only 4,500 rupees (about $65) in the old
notes for cash. Anything more than that has to be deposited, thus
creating a paper trail. Theoretically, this would either force those
hoarding cash to come forward and pay taxes or their money would
be worthless. Plus, anyone caught with more than 2,50,000 rupees
in cancelled notes (about $3,500) is now subject to investigation.
To prevent word of the plan from getting out, which might have
allowed the biggest violators to exchange their big notes in advance,
Modi reportedly opted to make the radical move in secret. He
apparently relied on the advice of a few top advisers.
He would have done well to seek further counsel, because his plan
has now thrown Indias economy into chaos. The secrecy meant the
countrys mint couldnt print or distribute new notes until the
announcement so banks are struggling to meet demand. Even
worse: Indians are standing in long lines to exchange or deposit
their old notes, or withdraw cash just to buy groceries.
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This isnt the first time a charismatic nationalist has used a simple,
good-vs.-evil narrative to push a radical economic measure. In
1958, Chinas Mao Zedong called upon millions of citizens to wipe
out the countrys rats, sparrows, mosquitoes and flies to fight
disease and prevent crop losses. And like Maos campaign, which
engendered a plague of locusts by wiping out the sparrows that ate
them, Modis strike against corruption has led to some unexpected
and painful consequences.
Yet Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
have deflected any criticism of the pain and suffering resulting from
the move by saying only people sitting on stacks of black money
have reason to complain recasting the serpentine lines at bank
branches nationwide as a vast people-laundering machine: Criminals
go in, and patriots come out.
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If the chaos does continue, Modis BJP will pay dearly in a series of
upcoming state elections early next year. However, like other
populist leaders around the world, he may have a better grasp on
public opinion than his opponents.
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To put this in context, the total value of all bank balances went up
from Rs5.9 trillion on 11 November to Rs9.4 trillion on 18
Novemberan increase of 58% (data from RBI).
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Twitter:
Em ail:
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