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Banking News: December 1, 2016

Here is an endeavour to bring you in one folder all banking related unedited
news/columns/articles/opinions/analysis etc appearing in major business dailies
The compiler assumes no responsibility for the authenticity and reliability of the
news. Readers are requested to go through the official instructions before acting
upon any news articles and views appearing herein.

Compiled by: Anup Sen


Salt Lake City, Kolkata 700 064

From E-Group, Banking-News

Bank Unions demand adequate currency


notes to meet cash needs of the public

The Business Standard


Published on December 1, 2016

Reserve Bank should increase the supply of notes to


meet increasing demand for money, says bank unions

New Delhi, November 30 (PTI): As bank staff faces the wrath of


fatigued customers amid continuing cash shortages following the
scrapping of high-value currency, bank unions have demanded that
the Reserve Bank increase the supply of notes to meet increasing
demand for money.

There are rumours that branches are hoarding cash but it is far from
the truth as cash received by banks is being passed on to the

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customers, RSS backed National Organisation of Bank Workers


(NOBW) said in a statement. "We should understand that banks are
not printing the notes but whatever is provided by the RBI they are
doing their best to facilitate the public," NOBW Vice-President
Ashwani Rana said. Expressing dismay over comments of politicians
on bankers, he said they should refrain from provoking the public
against bankers by issuing irresponsible statements. The Centre
from November 9 scrapped high value 500 and 1000 rupee notes to
crack down on black money, leading to unending queues at banks
and ATMs across the country.

According to the All India Bank Employees' Association (AIBEA), the


next one week to 10 days are going to be much more tense because
huge number of employees, workers and retirees/pensioners would
throng the branches to draw their salary. If RBI fails to provide
adequate cash, it may lead to serious issues of law and order, it said
in a letter written to the central bank. Besides, a majority of the
ATMs are non-functional which will add to the congestion inside the
branches, it said. AIBEA also said that RBI is issuing umpteen
number of instructions every day and bank staff is unable to cope
with these instructions instantly until they are duly intimated about
it from their respective Head Offices. At times, these RBI
instructions create more problems than solutions, it added. It also
said that 'No Cash' board outside branches is leading to erosion of
reputation of banks. "We are afraid, there would be lot of undue
pressures, tensions, conflicts and clashes in the branches and we
seek the intervention of IBA to advice the Banks to ask for proper
police protection in branches to provide proper security to the
staff," it said.

All India Bank officers' Confederation (AIBOC) also said there is a


need to increase cash supply by RBI. "We also request IBA to take
up with RBI to ensure adequate supply of currency notes to all
Banks without any discrimination, which allegation is also doing a
lot of rounds that some few private banks get more supply of notes
from RBI at the cost of public sector Banks," AIBOC General
Secretary Harvinder Sigh said. As bank staff faces the wrath of
fatigued customers amid continuing cash shortages following the
scrapping of high-value currency, bank unions have demanded that
the Reserve Bank increase the supply of notes to meet increasing
demand for money.

From E-Group, Banking-News

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Payday pressure no big deal, says SBI

The Business Standard


Published on December 1, 2016

Mumbai, November 30: Even in urban centres, banks do not receive


adequate supply of notes and run out of cash at branches and
automated teller machines (ATMs). Even ATM cash management
companies say there is acute shortage of cash. Small banks are also
upset with the availability of cash, as they claim that the larger
banks are getting preferential treatment in cash allocation.

Meanwhile, senior SBI executives remain optimistic that the


demand for cash will taper, and said customers have already
withdrawn more cash than normal to avoid problems in the first
week of December when they have to make payments in cash for
monthly bills. Also, there has been a shift in transactions to
electronic channels since the note ban on November 8, especially in
large cities, albeit on a small scale, they added.

As a result, SBI officials expect lower withdrawals in their channels


over the next 10 days at Rs.10,000 crore, compared with average
withdrawals of Rs.15,000 crore in the first seven days of every
month in the past 10 months before demonetisation. There has
already been a rise in cash withdrawals, as some organisations pay
salaries early, typically in the past two-three days of the month.
This is also expected to take some pressure away on branches, said
the chief executive officer of a small public sector bank.

However, branches and ATMs continue to have a problem in cash


availability, as the limited supply of notes from RBI is getting
exhausted quickly, he said. Everybody laying their hand on cash is
holding on to it. Fear (of shortage of currency) will not go until
people see enough cash available throughout the day at ATMs.
Going by the current pace of currency supply, it would take another
month for the situation to limp back to normal days, said another
senior public sector bank (PSB) official.

Meanwhile, to check the misuse of Jan Dhan accounts by black


money hoarders, RBI restricted the withdrawal from such accounts

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to Rs.10,000 per month as long as they were KYC (Know Your


Customer) compliant. Customers who are not KYC compliant can
withdraw only Rs.5,000 a month.

On making recalibrated ATMs available for cash transactions, the


task force constituted under RBI Deputy Governor S S Mundra has
managed to recalibrate close to 85 per cent of the ATMs. At the end
of August, according to RBI data, the number of ATMs was at
202,801, according ATM manufacturers.

However, despite this, most ATMs still continue to run dry or the
queues outside the functioning ATMs still run long. Most of the
ATMs have been recalibrated but we dont have adequate money to
put in it. In fact, some banks have said to not put more than Rs.5
lakh or so in an ATM, so that they can target more areas. As aresult,
the machines are still running at 10-20 per cent of their capacity,
said V Balasubramanian, president transaction processing & ATM
services, FSS. It manages about 40,000 ATMs across the country.

According to the All India Bank Employees Association, the next


seven to 10 days are going to be more tense because huge number
of employees, workers and retirees/pensioners would throng the
branches to draw their salary. If RBI fails to provide adequate cash,
it may lead to serious law and order issues, it said in a letter written
to the central bank.

From E-Group, Banking-News

Mobs lock up Bankers ahead of


Pay Day in Cash Crunch: Report

Anto Antony & Anirban Nag


The Bloomberg News Service
Published on November 30, 2016

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One of the worst planned and executed


government decisions in decades: Bank Union

Mumbai, November 30 (Bloomberg): Bankers are bracing for long


hours and angry mobs as pay day approaches in India, the first test
for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's move to invalidate almost all
cash in circulation.

"Already people who are frustrated are locking branches from


outside in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu and abusing staff as
enough cash is not available," said CH Venkatachalam, general
secretary of the All India Bank Employees' Association. The group
has sought police protection at bank branches for the next 10 days,
he added. "This is the fallout of one of the worst planned and
executed government decisions in decades."

He estimates that about 20 million people-- almost twice the


population of Greece-- will queue up at bank branches and ATMs
over the coming week, when most employers in India pay their
staff. In an economy where 98 percent of consumer payments are in
cash, banks are functioning with about half the amount of currency
they need.

Retaining public support is also crucial for Modi before key state
elections next year and a national contest in 2019.

"We are bracing ourselves for payday and fearing the worst," said
Parthasarathi Mukherjee, chief executive officer at Chennai-based
Laxmi Vilas Bank Ltd. "If we run out of cash we will have to
approach the Reserve Bank of India for more. It is tough."

Half as Much

The shortages follow Modi's Nov. 8 move to ban 500 rupee and
1,000 rupee ($15) notes, a decision that blindsided the nation and
sucked out 86 percent of currency in circulation. Most top banks in
the financial heart of Mumbai are now starting the day with
anywhere between 800 million rupees to 1.2 billion rupees of cash
-- instead of the typical 1.5 billion rupees, according to bank

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officials, who declined to be identified citing the sensitivity of the


subject.

These currency chests are then shared with several branches, which
are rationing supplies. Withdrawals are capped at 10,000 rupees per
person instead of the 24,000 rupees limit set by the government,
said a manager at a state-run Bank of India branch in the eastern
state of Jharkhand.

In a Mumbai suburb, a branch of the nation's largest lender, State


Bank of India, was starting the day with about 6,00,000 rupees of
cash that will run out in about an hour, compared with the 1.5
million they'd typically have, the manager said. Staff will also have
to work harder to document the payouts once business hours end,
the official said. Both managers asked not to be identified as they
aren't authorized to speak with the media.

Other Options

"With pay day around the corner a lot of small and medium-sized
companies are opting for prepaid cards over cash payments," said
Naveen Surya, managing director of payments solutions company
Itz Cash Card Ltd., who's also chairman of the representative body
Payments Council of India. "More than five million of these cards
have been sold in India in the last one week" and sales of 40 million
more are expected through December, he said.

The government, too, is urging electronic payments. While large


companies such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp. make 99 percent of
their pay outs electronically, it still needs to work out a system with
smaller sub-contractors, said finance director J. Ramaswamy. Indian
Oil Corp. is opening State Bank of India accounts for all labourers at
its Paradip refinery, Dharmendra Pradhan, India's oil minister, said
on Nov. 29 in New Delhi.

"I will request all our companies to encourage bank transfers for all
such payments," Pradhan said.

From E-Group, Banking-News

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On first payday after demonetisation, banks


run out of cash within hours and ATMs dry up

Saloni Shukla, Joel Rebello & Pratik Bhakta


The Economic Times
Published on December 1, 2016

Mumbai, December 1: Banks faced the brunt of public frustration


again as customers found themselves standing in long lines to
withdraw cash after November salaries were credited to accounts.

As banks ran out of notes, people waited at automated teller


machines but struck out there too as supplies to cash dispensers
were down to a fifth of required levels, according to bankers, who
said a lack of new Rs 500 notes was worsening the situation.

The situation will not change much from our side even if it is salary
day because there is not enough cash in bank branches or ATMs,
said an official at a large private sector bank. The situation will
only improve once Rs 500 notes come into circulation and it will
take days before that happens.

On the first payday after the November 8 demonetisation of old Rs


500 and Rs 1,000 notes, banks ran out of cash within hours of
opening as multiple reports suggested the government was trying to
increase the supply of Rs 500 notes. The Reserve Bank of India has
been striving to meet increased demand but bankers said rationing
of supplies still seemed to be the order of the day.

RBI is currently supplying cash based on a variety of calculations


including how much a bank branch got the previous day, said
another banker. That will continue. We will continue to ration
cash.

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Supplies to ATMs have been falling short, said several people with
knowledge of the matter. We are only getting around 20% of the
daily cash that is required by us in order to get the entire ATM
network of the country up and running in a normal manner, said
one insider.

Although under supervision from the ATM task force more than 1.5
lakh ATMs have already been tweaked for the new series notes, they
are running dry due to lack of adequate supply of cash from the
Reserve Bank of India.

Another of the persons cited above said, In normal times, during


the salary season we used to get around Rs 8,000 to Rs 10,000 crore
from the banks to be distributed across ATMs in the country on a
daily basis. Now we are getting around Rs 2,000 crore which is
awfully inadequate.

Before the withdrawal of the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, ATMs used
to be filled with about Rs 50 lakh of currency. Thats dropped to Rs 5
lakh at a time because of the shortfall in supply.

A former RBI official said the central bank had stepped up printing
and distribution of currency.

Payday worries are overdone, he said. The scarcity of currency is


also because people are hoarding cash that was earlier easily
circulated.
Bankers
said
this
was
aggravating
matters.
Consumption spending has seen a sharp fall and if money gets
stuck with the people and does not come back to the banking
system, how will banks recirculate the currency? said one of them.

The weekly withdrawal limit is Rs 24,000 for savings accounts and


Rs 50,000 for current accounts. ATM withdrawals are limited to Rs
2,500 at a time from dispensers recalibrated to take new Rs 500 and
Rs 2,000 notes. Those that havent been reprogrammed will
dispense Rs 2,000 at a time.

Private sector banks,


limits on top of those
off than state-owned
running our branches

whove had to impose their own withdrawal


set by the government, said they were worse
counterparts. What do you expect? We are
on one-sixth capacity, said one private bank

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executive. We dont have enough cash. We need to cater to all


customers who come to us.

Southern India was also feeling the pinch. We received Rs 40 crore


yesterday and Rs 20 crore today, said the CEO of a small private
sector bank based in the south. We are getting cash in multiples of
Rs 2,000, some Rs 100 and if available, Rs 500. All this cash is being
distributed among our branches. We are giving priority to the
branches that have a lot of salary accounts because of payday. But
we cannot predict how long this cash will last.

Unpredictable Demand:

Bankers said the situation is such that its nearly impossible to


predict demand or meet it.

We have done an analysis on how much cash will be required based


on the number of companies which distribute their salary through
us, said the retail head of a large private sector bank.

However, there are many things which are not under our control
like if people decide to withdraw their full weekly limit on one day or
how much RBI gives us. Then there are other normal cash demands
from our current account customers which we cannot ignore. We are
hoping we can meet the demand.

Private sector bankers said the state-owned ones that manage


currency chests have an advantage when it comes to supply of
notes.

Of the total 4,075 RBI-owned currency chests in India, State Bank of


India and its associates manage more than half. Other public sector
banks manage 1,173 chests while private ones run 160.

Money disbursed to PSU (public sector unit) banks is more than us


because they also need to meet the post office and rural demand,
said one private sector banker. PSU banks are synonymous with
the government machinery. They cant be seen running out of cash
so quickly, unlike us.

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State-owned bank officials rejected this contention. Our currency


chests dont mean it only caters to our demand. Currency chest is
the property of the RBI, said one. We are getting currency as per
our requirement.

The RBI links smaller banks to currency chests of one of the banks
as per requirement. Some of the banks are linked to our currency
chests while remaining are linked with other chests so it depends
upon the linkage.

From E-Group, Banking-News

Demonetisation: Narendra Modi government to walk


the extra mile to tackle Pay day rush; heres how

The Financial Express

Published on December 1, 2016

New Delhi, November 30: With an aim to successfully see off the
litmus test of meeting the month-end demand of lakhs of salaried
employees and pensioners, the Narendra Modi is taking all-possible
measures. Though Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has ruled out any
impact of demonetisation over payment of salaries to either
government or private sector employees, the centre is likely to
disburse 20-30 per cent more cash to banks. The central
government will also inject more manpower to banks for pay day,
according to cnn news18 report. There will be special camps for
opening new accounts. The government may push more cash to
banks for pension accounts, the report said. RBI is also gearing up
to mitigate the challenges likely to be faced due to this rush.
Government sources told CNBC-TV18 RBI Aware Of Pay Day
Challenges and the central bank has also assured Union Finance
Minister Arun Jaitley that adequate arrangements are made for Pay
Day.

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Apart from it, the Indian Banks Association (IBA) has issued an
advisory to banks for maintaining adequate cash in view of the rush
at the beginning of the month and maintain normalcy, says a Hindu
report. However, bankers said the supply of cash was much lower
than the demand. Since Rs 500 and Rs 100 denomination notes are
only being printed now, so the branches and automated teller
machines are running out of cash frequently, chief executive of a
public sector bank told The Hindu. Printing presses have stopped
printing Rs 2000 notes for the time being, several bankers pointed
out.

Also, to beat the imminent cash crunch, banks are setting internal
daily cash withdrawal limits per account, while the government has
asked private companies to make payments to employees digitally.
According to an Indian Express report, banks have suggested to
large companies that they should give prepaid payment cards to
their employees in lieu of cash, industry sources said. We are
making arrangements so that there arent any problems in the days
to come. There should not be any inconvenience to the salaried
class, pensioners or any section of society. We have made
arrangements, and will be able to say whether these are adequate
or not only on the day when money comes into the accounts of
pensioners and salaried people. Were hopeful that there wont be
any problems, a top official of the Bank of Maharashtra told Indian
Express.

In a bid to relieve pressure on banks, the government, on November


17, allowed its Group C employees, including from PSUs, defence
and railways, to draw salaries up to Rs 10,000 in cash in advance.
Several ministries have also deployed point of sale (POS) machines
within the office premises to dispense cash for staffers, in a bid to
take some pressure off the banking system. In an interview to PTI
last week, RBI Governor Urjit Patel said the central bank was
monitoring the situation on a daily basis and urged people to start
using debit cards and digital wallets. This will make transactions
cheaper and easier, helping India reduce the use of cash and bring it
on par with developed nations, he said.

The RBI has also doubled the limit on balance that can be kept in
prepaid wallets and cards to Rs 20,000 till December 30 to ease the
situation

From E-Group, Banking-News

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Demonetisation wounds will take time to heal

The Hindu
Published on December 1, 2016

Chennai, December 1: It will take three more months for the State
to recover from the wounds caused by demonetisation. There is
acute shortage of Rs. 100 notes, Rs. 500 notes are not available,
and Rs. 2,000 notes cannot be exchanged. It will take minimum
three months for the dust to settle down, D. Thomas Franco
Rajendra Dev, senior vice-president of All India Bank Officers
Confederation, told The Hindu.

From day one, new generation private banks were given more
currency by the Reserve Bank of India. Even the State Bank of India
(SBI), which maintains the largest currency chest, has been asked
to collect cash from ICICI Bank in Chennai and HDFC Bank in
Coimbatore. According to Mr. Franco, three private banks were
given Rs. 6,100 crore while the remaining banks were given Rs.
7,800 crore. As of March 2016, Tamil Nadu has 9,971 bank branches
including foreign banks and regional rural banks.

An official from a public sector bank said that December 1, the


salary day is when the real heat would be felt. There is a cash
crunch and a fully loaded ATM runs out of cash in two hours.
Customers are going to storm branches as soon as their salary lands
in their accounts, he said. Around 60 per cent of the ATMs in the
State had started functioning but there was shortage of cash.

On Wednesday, employees working in private firms got their salary


credited into their accounts but were not able to withdraw it due to
cash shortage. Many pensioners returned home empty handed.
N.B.S. Mani, a retired BSNL employee who went to withdraw his
pension money, had to return with an empty wallet.

Mr Franco said that December 1 was going to be a challenging day


for bankers. Other than works related to demonetisation, regular

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banking activities have come to a halt. Advances are going down.


Non Performing Assets are increasing. Deferment of repayment has
been impacted. These trends are unhealthy, he added.

From E-Group, Banking-News

What does the currency ban mean for banks?

Rajeswari Sengupta & Anjali Sharma


The Mint
Published on December 1, 2016

They may not be in a position to significantly


increase lending and their capital base may get worse

The withdrawal of Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 notes on 8 November has


changed the composition of money supply in the economy. A large
part of what was currency in circulation is now coming to banks as
deposits. The sudden inflow of deposits has given rise to speculation
about how these will be utilized by the banks. There are reports that
banks will increase lending. Some have suggested that banks
non-performing asset (NPA) problems will get alleviated. This is not
correct. Our analysis suggests that: (1) banks are not in a position
to significantly increase lending, (2) their net interest income (NII)
may fall over the next few quarters, worsening their capital
position, and (3) their NPA situation may get worse, further adding
to their capital woes.

Close to 86% of the currency in circulation, amounting to roughly


Rs14 trillion, was withdrawn overnight. By 13 November, Rs5.1
trillion out of this had been deposited in the banking system and
Rs0.3 trillion had been exchanged over the counter. A large part of
the remaining Rs9 trillion will get deposited in banks now that the
exchange of old notes has been discontinued. At the same time

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frictions such as withdrawal limits on bank deposits, logistical


constraints of re-stocking ATMs, banks capacity constraints in
dealing with the surge in transaction volumes imply that it may take
several months for the currency in circulation to even come close to
its pre-8 November level.

Deposits are liabilities on a banks balance sheet, which they use to


make loans and advances, which are their assets. However, in
making these loans and advances, they have to adhere to two
principles. The first is the principle of asset liability matching. This
broadly means that short-term liabilities are used to generate
short-term assets. If long-term loans are made using short-term
deposits, banks are exposed to the risk of not being able to pay back
when required or having to raise costly funds from the market to do
so. The second is the principle of maintaining bank capital
commensurate with the risk profile and quantum of loans made.
These are according to Reserve Bank of Indias regulations and are
in line with international standards set under Basel II.

First, in the current context, banks do not know how long these new
deposits will stay on their books. So they can deploy these only in
short-term assets. Second, the burgeoning NPAs of the banking
system have significantly eroded their capital base and hence their
ability to lend. In June, gross NPAs (GNPAs) of listed banks were
Rs6.7 trillion or 9.1% of their advances. The 27 public sector banks
(PSBs) account for 80% of these NPAs. In 15 of them, GNPAs as a
percentage of advances are more than or close to the capital to risk
weighted assets ratio (CRAR). Except for the State Bank of India
and a few other PSBs, the CRAR headroom required to make new
loans does not exist.

Given both these factors, banks will face constraints in using the
new deposits to make new loans. There is also a question of demand
for new loans. Corporate credit demand has been slow. The currency
ban has imposed a big negative shock on consumption demand,
which in turn may lead to businesses cutting back on their working
capital requirement, at least in the next few quarters. This in turn
will affect the demand for working capital loans.

If banks cannot make loans on these deposits, then they can either
park them with RBI as reserves or invest them in government
securities (G-secs). Banks would not prefer to park these deposits
as reserves with the RBI beyond the cash reserve ratio (CRR) limit,
because these reserves do not earn them any interest. They would
prefer to invest the deposits in G-secs through the reverse-repo
window. G-secs being sovereign bonds do not pose any capital

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requirements on banks, give them returns and allow them to match


their asset liability profile.

The availability of G-secs in the market is determined by the


borrowing programme of the government and is not easy to expand
without raising fiscal concerns. This limits the supply of G-secs
using which RBI can absorb the excess liquidity from the banks.
There has been no announcement yet on the expansion of the
supply of G-secs. This implies that with more incoming deposits, RBI
will soon run out of G-secs that are needed to absorb the excess
liquidity. This seems to be the case because RBI has now made it
mandatory for banks to hold 100% CRR on incremental deposits.
This announcement prevents banks from investing the incremental
deposits in G-secs.

This does not augur well for banks. Their ability to make loans from
the new deposits and earn income is already limited, for reasons
discussed earlier. With the 100% incremental CRR requirement, the
possibility of banks earning risk-free returns by investing the
incremental deposits in G-secs is also removed now. Theoretically,
one option with the banks is to lower the deposit rates. However,
even after interest rates were deregulated, banks have not reduced
deposit rates below the level of 4% that prevailed in the regulated
regime. Lowering deposit rates below 4% may cause a public uproar
and it is unlikely that banks will take this step. Given this, banks will
have to service the cost of these fresh deposits without earning
commensurate income on them. This will negatively have an impact
on their NIIs and their profits, at least for the next two quarters,
which in turn will cause further deterioration in their capital
position.

Overall, the move to ban the Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes does not
appear to be a positive one for the banking sector. They may not be
in a position to significantly increase lending and their capital base
may get worse. If economic activity slows down in the aftermath of
the currency ban and corporate performance deteriorates, there
may even be a spike in their NPAs, at least in the short term. In
addition to this, bank branches all over the country have been
struggling to deal with the massive transaction load that this move
has placed on them. The normal banking business has been
disrupted and bank employees have been occupied in dealing with
exchange, deposits and withdrawals of currency. Yet the task is far
from over and it is likely to keep them fully occupied till 30
December. At a time when the banking sector has been struggling to
recover its bad loans and to find adequate capital to deal with
provisioning challenges, this sudden shock may worsen the situation
even further.

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From E-Group, Banking-News

PM Narendra Modi's Notes Ban Neither


Intelligent Nor Humane: Amartya Sen

Barkha Dutt
The NDTV Online
Published on November 30, 2016

New Delhi, November 30: "Despotic and authoritarian" is how Nobel


Laureate and Bharat Ratna Amartya Sen describes the decision to
abruptly ban 500- and 1000-rupee notes.

"The alleged objective of dealing with black money is something all


Indians would laud. But we have to ask whether this is the good
way to do it? This decision is about minimal achievement and
maximal suffering," Dr Sen said, appearing from Harvard University
on NDTV's The Buck Stops Here.

On November 8, in an unscheduled television address, Prime


Minister Narendra Modi announced that just hours later,
high-denomination notes would be illegal. 86% of the cash in
circulation was benched in one stroke, creating a cash crisis that the
PM said would take "50 days" to resolve as he asked people to bear
with short-term hardship in the national interest of warring on
corruption and tax evasion.

Making the case that only a very small percent of black money is
held in cash "about six percent and certainly less than ten percent,"
Dr Sen said that demonetisation is "small fry in terms of
achievement but a big disruptor to the Indian economy."

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Like other critics of the PM's initiative, he said he backs the intent
but faults the execution of the reform, "We all want something to be
done about black money. But surely, it also has to be intelligent and
humane. That has not happened."

With new bills in short supply, banks run dry early in the morning.
ATMs are still being reconfigured to be able to stock the new notes
which are of a larger size. Rural India, cut off from formal banking,
is especially short-changed, though many say they support the PM's
new scheme.

Asked why he used a sweeping adjective like "despotic" to describe


an economic policy which is drawing both positive and negative
reviews, Dr Sen explained "Despotic in the sense that it breaks
down trust in the currency." Making the argument that the rupee is
a promissory note, the noted economist said that for the any
government to not honour it is to renege on a basic promise. "If
suddenly a government says we won't pay you, that is despotic. I
am not a fan of capitalism but...trust is key to capitalism; this goes
against trust altogether. There is a potential danger of undermining
the economy and the very basis of capitalism. Tomorrow the
government could do the same with bank accounts and not allow
anything above a certain amount unless people prove they are not
racketeers."

Dr Sen who has been a trenchant critic of Narendra Modi (his most
recent run-in with the government has been over its removal of
board members like him from the prestigious Nalanda University in
Bihar), rubbished the suggestion that his ideological disagreements
with the Prime Minister are guiding his criticism of demonetisation.
"I would never criticise Modi for wanting to get rid of black money.
If he did it successfully, I would be full of admiration and applause.
My worry is that with this move, the lives of law-abiding citizens and
white money-holding people will be that much harder. My
differences with Modi are over our view of India... and I would like
to say the BJP does not have license based on 31 percent of the vote
to declare some people anti national just because they happen to
disagree with the government."

Dr Sen was honoured with the Bharat Ratna during the NDA tenure
of Atal Bihari Vajapyee.

From E-Group, Banking-News

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India is far away from being a


cashless economy. Heres why

Saksham Khosla
The Hindustan Times
Published on December 1, 2016

A day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that to curb


black money in circulation Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes would no
longer be recognised as legal tender, finance minister Arun Jaitley
added a new gloss to the decision. He announced that this currency
swap would not merely nudge the economy in the direction of
cashless economy but [give it] a significant push in that direction.
Economic affairs secretary Shaktikanta Das echoed this in an
interview, explaining that this move was part of a larger agenda to
move India into a digital economy. These calls reached a crescendo
in Modis monthly radio address, where he asked citizens to take a
pledge to be part of a cashless society. But do the preconditions for
a successful transition to digital banking exist?

The numbers paint a stark portrait. As of last week, there were 256
million no-frills Jan Dhan accounts, roughly one for every
household, under the Pradhan Mantri Jan-Dhan Yojana (PMJDY).
The scheme also promised to provide every new account holder with
RuPay debit cards, with 195 million cards being issued so far. While
the finance ministry must be given due credit, the Modi
administration appears to have conflated outputs with outcomes.

Just as building more schools does not improve literacy rates,


opening accounts does not empower citizens to make digital
financial transactions. Key demand and supply-side gaps remain:
23% of PMJDY accounts lie empty. A recent investigation from
September found that 10 million accounts held only Re. 1, as bank
officials took matters into their own hands to reduce their branchs
share of zero-balance accounts. A survey of PMJDY customers
conducted by a financial inclusion consultancy found that only 33%
of all beneficiaries were ready to use their Rupay cards. The others
were bewildered by the complicated PIN and activation procedures.
Inconsistent electricity and sporadic internet access further eroded

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customers trust in ATMs and POS machines, with one failed


transaction enough to make an entire village swear off formal
financial institutions.

This is as much a structural constraint as it is logistical. Card


acceptance infrastructure struggles to keep pace with Indias
growing population: in 2014, there were 18 ATMs and 13
commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults in comparison, the
number in Brazil was 129 and 47 respectively. Between 2013 and
2015, debit cards grew twice as fast as the number of POS machines
and one-and-a-half times the number of ATMs, with the majority of
new infrastructure taking root in urban centres. Indias modern
banking system maps neatly onto social and spatial inequalities.
Only 18% of all ATMs are deployed in rural India. The RBIs own
research finds that states with a higher female population and a
more rural populace show lower levels of financial inclusion.

The impact of mobile wallets in hastening the transition to a


cashless economy is overstated. Merely 26% of India has internet
access, and there are only 200 million users of digital payment
services. The World Banks Global Findex shows that Indians are
significantly less familiar with digital banking the use of credit or
debit cards, making transactions using mobile phones, and using the
internet to pay bills than their peers in middle-income nations.

The path forward is clear: A nationwide financial literacy campaign


accompanied by a medium-term strategy to improve access to, and
awareness of, electronic payments. Targeted financial education
programmes can improve financial skills and credit management,
and increase account ownership.

Indias current economic moment constitutes a crucial inflection


point; if handled correctly, there is a real chance that the unbanked
will adopt digital payments en masse. The RBI and finance ministry
have made Financial Literacy Centres (FLCs) a cornerstone of the
PMJDY. These centres provide tailored financial education
programmes to introduce adults to banking products and setting
financial goals.

Well-publicised literacy activities conducted at the 1,400-odd FLCs


will go a long way towards reassuring consumers that bank
accounts are a legitimate alternative to a cash-heavy economy.
Beyond this interim measure, the government must undertake the
Sisyphean task of changing attitudes towards digital payments
among customers and merchants. Off-the-shelf policy templates

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provide a good starting point, such as a RBI report on Indian


payment systems and an USAID survey on expanding payment
acceptance networks.

Indias cross-cutting cleavages have historically prevented the


benefits of economic reforms from reaching marginalised groups. As
the government works to restore currency circulation, it should take
full advantage of this critical juncture to take a giant step towards
substantive financial inclusion.

Speaking to the Wall Street Journal in May, Prime Minister Modi


admitted that he was puzzled by the calls for big-bang reforms
since no expert could define the term for him.

As the shock waves of demonetisation roll across the Indian


heartland, Modis administration would do well not to be blinded by
the flash.

Saksham Khosla is a research analyst at Carnegie India

From E-Group, Banking-News

Demonetisation: Implementation is
highly anti-poor, says Dr K C Chakrabarty

Sucheta Dalal
The MoneyLife Online
Published on November 30, 2016

New Delhi, November 30: Here is an interview with Dr K C


Chakrabarty, former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India

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with Moneylife. Dr Chakrabarty gives us his no-nonsense views, for


which he is famous, on how to tackle the issues raised by
demonetisation of currency. A banker for over 40 years, his is an
insider account

Moneylife (ML): Based on what you have observed so far, there is no


doubt that demonetisation ought to have been planned better.
Would you have suggestions on how to salvage the situation or
improve things even now, to minimize the negative impact?

Dr KC Chakrabarty (KCC): The negative impact is that you have to


print new notes and you have to distribute them equitably. I believe
that the present system of implementation is highly anti-poor. A
person who has five bank accounts can withdraw Rs1.20 lakh. A
person, who has only one bank account in a rural area, is not able to
withdraw anything and is standing in the queue. The policy seems to
be that the poorer you are the more you will be hurt. Look at
another example. If I have five ATM cards, I can draw Rs10,000
even today. Nobody has bothered about this issue. When something
is in short supply, you cannot manage things with a rule. I would
say if you want to permit withdrawal beyond Rs2,000, you impose a
fee. A sort of cash transaction charge.

ML: A charge to withdraw my own money? That is a radical


suggestion. Wont it hurt the poor?

KCC: Oh yes, a charge to withdraw money. That is because you are


not able to give everybody the cash they want. You will have to
ration it. One way is to make it equitable is to levy a fee, so that
people only withdraw what they really need. You can reimburse the
poor like you do with the LPG subsidy. Otherwise, you are not going
to be able to control the situation.

In addition, if you want to encourage digital transactions, it will not


happen by speech alone. You have to make it more expensive to do
cash transactions while digital transactions must be free or even
incentivised. As it is banks are charging you for withdrawing money
from ATMs (more than three withdrawals a month), but they do not
charge you to withdraw money from the branch.

Another important issue is the geographical distribution of currency


notes that are being printed. You have to be able to reach the
currency to the last mile. Transporting currency is not easy. You can

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have Air Force planes carrying it up to a point, usually to locations


where there is an airstrip. But you need to distribute it securely
even after that.

I have dealt with these situations before. It is all very well to say
that the army or the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) will
provide security, but the fights begin over who will pay the charges
for it. There is bureaucracy and red tape everywhere.

These issues need to be monitored on a real time basis. We need an


on-going declaration by the RBI of what denomination notes
especially Rs500 and Rs100 have been supplied to which area on a
daily basis and how many have been received from the security
presses. The disclosure must be complete in terms of production,
transportation, distribution and last mile availability, only then will
you have a snapshot of what is happening at the ground level.
Today, all this information is computerised and available; why cant
it be put in the public domain? Do we know where the Rs100 notes
are going? Is it to metro cities or rural areas?

If we expect people to bear the pain and suffer for some time, then
we should also know how much I am suffering vis--vis other
people.

When something is in short supply, the big question is, is the


currency being rationally, equitably distributed in terms of
denomination and geography.

ML: Will you explain the currency situation today, based on your
knowledge as a Bank Chairman, Central Banker and a statistician:
We believe that the government has put on hold printing of Rs2,000
notes and has asked RBI presses to print Rs500. How long before
these flow into the market and when can we see some mitigation of
the situation?

KCC: If they work very efficiently, it will take at least five to six
months time before the situation stabilizes and they are able to
supply all denomination notes. We need to print more Rs500 notes
and Rs100 notes and distribute them swiftly. When anything is in
short supply, even currency, there will be hoarding.

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There are several issues in achieving this. I am privy to certain


information so I can tell you that the second press is in a mess for
the last two years. The Chairman and Managing Director of Security
Printing and Minting Corporation of India (SPMCIL), which is under
the central government, was sacked just a few months ago
following a public interest litigation. This is in the public domain.
There have been other problems earlier too. How will you manage a
crisis situation when you do not have a chairman of the company? A
joint secretary, who does not understand issues involved in high
security currency printing.

ML: How can the printing process be hastened? There are some
estimates about the presses working in two shifts and there is talk
about whether they can work in three-shifts. What is your view?

KCC: That is not possible. Do you have people even to work in


two-shifts? If you try to push them to do more, there could be a
breakdown because of wear and tear of old machines. What happens
then? People must also understand that currency printing is done in
a highly secure environment. Even if I entered the security press, I
have to go through a series of checks. My pockets are also checked,
even as chairman of the company. Therefore, you cannot simply put
temporary people on the job in the printing press and ask them to
produce more currency.

ML: What is your solution?

KCC: I believe that the banking system will not be able to deliver so
you need a master plan to deliver currency first to various hubs
and then to the last mile. You need to have a franchisee model
where people pay for the cash. In rural areas, people have to travel
10 to 20kms to get cash, so they incur expenses already.

It is a myth that you do not want to burden the poor- the reality is
that they pay more for everything even today, if nothing else in
terms of time and productive work hours lost. We are used to giving
lip sympathy to the poor. So the poor will not mind a charge if the
system works and they get their money without hardship you can
always reimburse them by way of a direct refund into the accounts
of the really needy.

Earlier we used to make foreign exchange available at bank


counters. If they could make forex available, why cannot they do so

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with domestic currency?

Our public sector banks (PSBs) are not competent to ensure


last-mile reach despite their network and non-public sector banks
do not have a network. So it has to be done on a commercial basis.
You may need to regulate the fee charged, but unless you create
franchisees, you will not be able to reach currency through the
banking system.

Do you know there used to be a flourishing business for procuring


and distributing small change, small denomination new currency
(Rs5, Rs10 and Rs20)? The business operates very close to Reserve
Banks regional offices and RBI employees are fully aware of it. Go
and check who are the people in the queue to procure new currency
or exchange soiled notesthey are all touts.

When anything is in short supply (clean notes) there is a premium


for it. RBI officers are fully aware of what is going on, that is why I
had said, RBI should not distribute any currency at its offices; they
should concentrate on banking supervision. However, my suggestion
was opposed by the employee unions.

So my solution is that you need a franchisee model to ensure


distribution of currency to the last mile you can regulate the
business, fix a price and give direct subsidies to the poor into their
bank account, but initially everybody must pay. That is the only
solution. Instead, today you have the Prime Ministers Office (PMO)
doing workshops on digital payments and mobile. That is not the job
of the PMO.

ML: We are still not clear if this franchisee idea will be accepted.

KCC: As a deputy governor, I had recommended this in a report,


sometime in 2013, when Dr D Subbarao was the governor (of RBI). I
was heading a committee comprising to looking into the shortage of
coins and notes in the system and how to improve the distribution.
My report is lying with the Finance Ministry. They have not even
made the report public. The report clearly said that you will not be
able to improve last mile availability of notes and coins unless you
have a franchisee model.

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ML: You have been a big proponent of empowering those who do not
have bank accounts. A large number of no-frills accounts were
opened during your tenure as deputy governor. Will demonetisation
and the desperation for cash change things? What are your
thoughts on digital transactions?

KCC: You have to bring down the banking transaction costs. The fact
is that banking transaction costs are so high that people are afraid
of going to the bank. This is true across the globe. Even in the US,
20% to 25% of the people do not use bank accounts because cost of
banking transactions is very high.

In India, at the very least we should have a proper consumer


protection system in place. You may push a person to do digital
transaction, but once a person has lost money at an ATM or in a
digital transaction, he will stay away for 10 years. All over the
world, unless the bank can prove that the customer is at fault, his
money should first be credited to his account. That is a global rule.
This is not yet implemented in India there is only a draft
notification. So you have to make things cheaper and safer for
people. When the rich lose money, it makes news, but when the
poor lose money, especially in a remote rural area, they have
nobody to turn to and it is lost forever.

ML: Would you have any specific thoughts on how to tackle black
money?

KCC: There are three sources of black money in our country


election, religion and administration. So first, you make all political
donations cashless. The second source is religion. If you put money
in a hundi at the temple, the minute they put it in the bank account,
it becomes white. There is no know your customer (KYC) for that,
but in a JanDhan account you are going to investigate all deposits
above Rs.2,50,000. The third is administration. All the perquisites
enjoyed by government officials, members of Parliament (MPs),
ministers and judges must be taxed at market value and valued on
the basis of cost-to-company or country. Our ministers stay in a free
residence, that is tax-free why should it be priced at market value?
Same goes for telephone calls and travel. You can pay them Rs1
crore as salary, but ensure that everything is taxed and priced at
market rates.

(Dr KC Chakrabarty is on the board of trustees of our sister entity


Moneylife Foundation, a not-for-profit organization engaged in
advocacy for savers and spreading financial literacy)

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From E-Group, Banking-News

How Narendra Modi's Cash Recall Gambit in India Backfired

Jason Overdorf
The Newsweek (International Edition)
Published on November 29, 2016

On November 8, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi


announced a surprise recall of more than 80 percent of the countrys
cash in circulation, his supporters hailed the measure as an
ingenious surgical strike against corruption and tax evasion.
Everyone else was too busy running to the ATM.

Before the move, Modi had made little progress in fulfilling his
campaign promise to bring back billions in untaxed black money
stashed abroad so he could deposit it in the bank accounts of Indias
poor. Washington, D.C.based corruption watchdog Global Financial
Integrity recently estimated that an average of $50 billion a year in
illicit funds flowed out of India from 2004 to 2013, while
bureaucrats, politicians and business tycoons amassed huge
fortunes from influence peddling, backroom deals and outright
graft.

Some Indians were so disgusted by this corruption that, much like


Donald Trumps supporters in the U.S. or Britains Brexiteers, they
applauded Modis radical gambitbelieving any action would be
better than continuing to do nothing. But as it becomes more and
more clear that replacing old notes with new ones will, at best,
result in a small loss for the biggest crooks and only a short hiccup
in the bribery business, the scheme is rapidly looking less like a
clever economic manoeuvre than a brilliant but potentially
disastrous piece of political theatre.

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The idea behind the recall was simple. Overnight, India announced
that anyone holding 500 and 1,000-rupee notes had to exchange
them for new bills before December 31. After that date, the old
money will become worthless. The catch: The government is
allowing people to swap only 4,500 rupees (about $65) in the old
notes for cash. Anything more than that has to be deposited, thus
creating a paper trail. Theoretically, this would either force those
hoarding cash to come forward and pay taxes or their money would
be worthless. Plus, anyone caught with more than 2,50,000 rupees
in cancelled notes (about $3,500) is now subject to investigation.

To prevent word of the plan from getting out, which might have
allowed the biggest violators to exchange their big notes in advance,
Modi reportedly opted to make the radical move in secret. He
apparently relied on the advice of a few top advisers.

He would have done well to seek further counsel, because his plan
has now thrown Indias economy into chaos. The secrecy meant the
countrys mint couldnt print or distribute new notes until the
announcement so banks are struggling to meet demand. Even
worse: Indians are standing in long lines to exchange or deposit
their old notes, or withdraw cash just to buy groceries.

Black money cash hidden to avoid taxes is pervasive in India. Yet


its not only that police officers, tax collectors and politicians
demand bribes to do their jobs or look the other way, says Surjit
Bhalla, senior India analyst at the New Yorkbased Observatory
Group, an advisory company specializing in monetary and fiscal
policy. Virtually anyone who buys real estate in India pays for it at
least partly under the table, and even the poorest Indians routinely
forgo receipts to avoid paying sales tax. Everybody, says Bhalla,
has been made to commit this crime.

Black money can also represent proceeds from legitimate business,


while illegal income from bribes or conflicts of interest can be
whiteas long as someone has paid taxes on it. So the politicians
in Parliament or various state assemblies, many of whom have
somehow earned tens of millions, if not more, after taking office,
can pay taxes on their bribes and still get away with it. Recalling
and replacing big bills wont do much to stop this malfeasance,
Bhalla says. As long as bribery continues, the new clean notes will
swiftly turn into dirty ones. Corruption, it seems, has little to do
with the denominations of the billsexcept that large notes take up
less storage space.

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Meanwhile, violators keep as little as 6 percent of their hidden


income in cash, according to some estimates. They invest the rest in
property or goldof which Indians hold some 15,000 tons,
according to a conservative 2011 estimate from Citigroup, or they
wash it by sending it abroad and bringing it back again as foreign
investment.

Then theres the question of legality. Lawyers from Indias political


opposition have questioned whether some elements of Modis
plansuch as denying people access to their own moneyare
against the law. Others see the move as an exercise in propaganda.
This is politics as a vast morality play, wrote Indian political
analyst Pratap Bhanu Mehta in The Indian Express, a left-of-centre
daily. Literally every citizen is being enlisted (or conscripted, if you
prefer) in a policy cause.

This isnt the first time a charismatic nationalist has used a simple,
good-vs.-evil narrative to push a radical economic measure. In
1958, Chinas Mao Zedong called upon millions of citizens to wipe
out the countrys rats, sparrows, mosquitoes and flies to fight
disease and prevent crop losses. And like Maos campaign, which
engendered a plague of locusts by wiping out the sparrows that ate
them, Modis strike against corruption has led to some unexpected
and painful consequences.

Around 4,00,000 trucks were stranded around the country as of


November 14 because their drivers had no valid bills to pay for
incidentals (including bribes) on the road, according to the All India
Motor Transport Congress suggesting there may be shortages of
essential supplies in the near future. Sugar processors have
reportedly made only partial payments to workers, reserving
whatever valid bills they had to pay for fuel needed to run their
cane-mashing machines, while other factory owners have given
workers several months salary in cancelled notes to get rid of the
old denominations. Critics say Modis move could even lead to a
significant economic slowdown. As K.C. Chakrabarty, a former
deputy governor of the central bank, warned, You have stopped
market transactions for 70 percent of the economy.

Yet Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
have deflected any criticism of the pain and suffering resulting from
the move by saying only people sitting on stacks of black money
have reason to complain recasting the serpentine lines at bank
branches nationwide as a vast people-laundering machine: Criminals
go in, and patriots come out.

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By making or at least seeming to make the rich suffer alongside the


poor, recalling the big notes could give Modi room to execute other
measures that would otherwise be rejected as favouring the
richsuch as lowering property taxes to reduce the incentive to
evade them, Bhalla adds, This gives them a certain credibility [with
the poor].

At least in theory. Lines at the bank are getting shorter in cities,


while wealthy and middle-class Indians have adjusted by using
debit and credit cards for more purchasesas well as downloading
payment apps in record numbers. But such workarounds are not
available to hundreds of millions of citizens who have also seen
their salaries withheld or their sales drop because of the sudden
lack of cash. Small shopkeepers who cater to the poor say business
has plunged by as much as 80 percent (even in the capital,
vegetable vendors, casual labourers and countless others operate
entirely in cash). In rural India, there are fewer than 10 bank
branches for every 1,00,000 people, and many open for business
only two days a week.

Though Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has promised everything will


be sorted out within 21 days, a local newspaper recently estimated
it could take as long as six months to replace all the cancelled notes
with new ones, based on the speed at which the mint is working.
Such reports are no easier to verify than the opposition claims that
BJP insiders and big donors were given advance warning so they
could convert their big notes into gold, jewellery and real estate.
Other reports suggest some of the worst hit among the rural poor
still support the measure which they believe will not only punish
the corrupt but also lead to a more equal society.

If the chaos does continue, Modis BJP will pay dearly in a series of
upcoming state elections early next year. However, like other
populist leaders around the world, he may have a better grasp on
public opinion than his opponents.

From E-Group, Banking-News

Are Jan Dhan accounts being misused? Unlikely

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Karthik Shashidhar, The Mint


Published on December 1, 2016

The increase in bank balance in Jan Dhan accounts is not


extraordinary as they are being used as much as regular bank
accounts, following demonetisation

Mumbai, November 30: Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY)


accounts are in focus again thanks to the new notification by the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) imposing withdrawal limits on such
bank accounts. The ostensible reason for this is concern that such
accounts might be being used to convert demonetised currency into
legal tender without inviting attention from the tax authorities.

The possible misuse of Jan Dhan accounts has been a common


concern in public discourse ever since the prime minister announced
the withdrawal of high-denomination notes on 8 November. There
has been special concern about the so-called zero-balance
accounts (Jan Dhan accounts that had never seen transactions),
since they are likely to belong to marginalized sections of society.

Data on Jan Dhan accounts released on 23 November shows that


zero-balance accounts are unlikely to have been misused. The total
number of zero-balance accounts has decreased by less than 1%
since demonetisation, from 59.4 million accounts on 9 November to
58.9 million on 23 November.

That the number of zero-balance Jan Dhan accounts hasnt changed


by much is both comforting and worryingcomforting that accounts
of people who had never used their accounts earlier havent been
abused for cleaning up possibly unaccounted money, and worrying
that the holders of these accounts arent using them even in times
when cash transactions are restricted. It also raises the question as
to whether these accounts are real, and if the holders are aware of
their existence.

It is also intriguing to note that there are significant regional


variations in the use of unused Jan Dhan accounts. In Uttarakhand,
the number of zero-balance accounts went down by 15% in the
three-week period from 2 November to 23 November, while in
Jammu and Kashmir the number went down by 12%. In

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Maharashtra and Assam, though, the number of zero-balance


accounts has actually gone up, suggesting that either people have
withdrawn whatever money they already had, or the creation of new
accounts has trumped the inflow into hitherto dormant accounts.

Interestingly, as the picture shows, despite banks being


overwhelmed with cash operations since the demonetisation, they
continued to open Jan Dhan accounts through the fortnight
following 8 November. The number of Jan Dhan accounts went up
from 255.1 million on 9 November to 256.7 million on the 23rd, an
increase of 0.6%, which is impressive for a two-week period. There
is an interesting rural-urban variation here, though, as the graph
suggests.

In rural areas, account opening virtually stopped in the first week


after demonetisation, as banks seemed to mainly focus on cash
operations. In urban areas, however, it seems like banks actively
helped open accounts in the first week after demonetisation.
Account opening continued as usual in both urban and rural areas
beyond the first week of demonetisation.

Finally, Jan Dhan accounts have seen a large increase in deposits in


the first two weeks after demonetisation, mostly in the first week.
Between 8-23 November, aggregate balance in Jan Dhan accounts
went up by 60% (from Rs45,000 crore to Rs72,000 crore).

To put this in context, the total value of all bank balances went up
from Rs5.9 trillion on 11 November to Rs9.4 trillion on 18
Novemberan increase of 58% (data from RBI).

While we are comparing two different time intervals here, it


suggests the increase in balance in Jan Dhan accounts is not
extraordinaryon aggregate, they are being used to the same
extent as non-Jan Dhan bank accounts.

01-12-2016 07:55 PM

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01-12-2016 07:55 PM

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